FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Been away for the past 2 days and only taken a first look at the charts since Friday night. The following few days will warm up particularly across southern and eastern parts of the country. Unfortunately it does look like the far west and north-west of the country will not get any of this warmth so the country will be a north-west to south-east split up to Saturday with temperatueres generally 19 to 22C across the south and east from Wednesday and possibly getting to 24 or 25C on Friday. A 26C may happen in one of two places.
Temperatures on Wednesday getting up to around 20C from Limerick to Dundalk and it will remain mostly dry throughout this week, however a few light passing showers may occur if they get inland far enough. North and West of that line it will be cooler 13C to 18C and more unsettled with showers particularly across western coasts and Donegal.
Thursday will see the warmth build across the south, southwest, midwest, midland and east with temperatures generally 19 to 23C. A 23 or 24C is possible at Shannon Airport on Thursday. In a line north and west from Galway to Dundalk temperatures generally 12 to 16C with some showers or possibly longer outbreaks of rain coastal parts of Donegal.
Friday will be the final day of proper warmth, again in a similar position to Wednesday and Thursday. In a line from Shannon to Dundalk temperatures could reach 21 to 26C particulalry during spells of sunshine. It should remain mostly dry on Friday but there is an outside chance of a shower or thunderstorm across eastern and southern areas as the cooler air from the NW moves south-east.
North-West of this line will be significantly cooler, generally 11 to 17C as a sharp temperature gradient between the hot air which by this stage is quickly moving east against the much cooler maritime air across the north and west.
Edit: The GFS is rolling out and restricts the warmth on Friday even with midland and north Leinster perhaps into the cooler air.
Up to Saturday looks mostly completely dry across a large part of the country with mainly coastal parts of the north-west getting some measureable rain.
Saturday will see it much cooler across the country as the hot air is swept back into SE England and on into the continent. Showers or thundery rain could affect southern and eastern parts but that remains to be seen. Temperatures generally 12 to 16C across the country so feeling much fresher.
From Sunday and into the following week looks to remain mostly dry away from the north and west with high pressure in control for much of the time. However the winds will be from a western or northwesterly direction around that high, so temperatures won't be that warm but should feel pleseant in the sunshine across the south, east and midlands.
Temperatures may warm up to high teen to low 20s across the country as we enter the second half of next week, but this is a long way off.
After Wednesday pressure could remain fairly high with temperatures possibly getting to the low to mid 20s once again. If these charts verifiy the north-western areas may also see an improvement in temperatures and settled conditions with high pressure dominating the weather.
The GFS 6z keeps things mostly dry and settled until the end of the month where a break in the weather may happen.
It has to be said take everything past this Saturday with a pinch of salt, this mornings GFS is a bit of a warm and settled outlier in the second half of it's run. The 12z could look cooler and more unsettled for next week on the next run.
Turns out both the GEM and CFS are currently also going for a build of high pressure once we get the Spanish plume and cool weekend out of the way.
Post edited by Gonzo on10 -
GFS 18z dials up summer from Wednesday with a temporary blip over the weekend before turning warm again next week and possibly beyond.
A ridge moves in from the mid Atlantic early next week bringing high teens to low twenties.
The high moves closer to us towards the end of the run and gets temperatures into the mid twenties and possibly higher.
Probably another very warm outlier but the GFS has been pumping these out for the past several runs. The Jetstream stays north of Scotland from early next week with high pressure in control right out to 384 hours.
Little to no rain over the next 14 days over a large portion of the country. Remember this is Fantasy Island so bucketloads of salt.
Are we seeing a flip into proper Summer from this week? I really hope so.
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Not too much rain in the coming week but both main models showing quite wet from the weekend with LP near by or over us, possibly deepening and bringing some bit of a windy spell but timings are very different at this stage.
Upper low and associated cool pool set to be nearby or over us at some stage and with the surface low bringing in frontal rain and variable wind directions the weekend has an added interest perhaps for convective weather and thunderstorms, temperatures getting up to the mid to high teens away from windward coasts at this stage, could see some cool nights also over the weekend.
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Deep out in FI signs of things settling down and warming up with an attempt from the Azores high.
The high comes under pressure around the 6th of July but stays mainly intact to the end of the run.
The GFS has been doing this over the past couple of runs but these are tending to be warm or settled outliers. Hopefully more models will latch on to this idea because by July 2nd we will need this warm and settled spell after a possibly very unsettled final week of June.
The ECM goes with a fairly different solution to warmth towards the end of it's run, with very warm to hot air dragging up from central Europe and a volatile area of low pressure moving towards Ireland from the Bay of Biscay.
GEM goes for a similar solution as the ECM with warm air dragging across Ireland briefly before a volatile low sets up over us and turns us cooler.
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Anybody of a nervous disposition look away now!
In general looking on the cooler side, continuing wet and breezy at times with frontal passages.
Total accumulations including this weekend according to the ECM, wetter than the GFS.
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First signs of ridging from the Azores appearing on the models for next weekend. GFS looks good for about 4 to 5 days before it turns unsettled again right at the end.
CFS has a go at ridging but it only lasts 2 to 3 days.
ECM also going for it.
GEM however is having none of this and keeps us cool and unsettled. Let's see if the models continue to run with this idea for prospects of things to settle down and warm up from next week to have any sort of believeability. Even if this verifies it looks rather short lived, maybe 3 to 4 days but at this stage i'll take it, already completely sick of the Atlantic muck that has taken over this weekend.
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Models continue to show an improvement in our weather from next weekend and into the following week. While this sounds like great news this isn't going to be a prolonged dry spell and the placement of the high to our west will mean that winds will be from a north-westerly direction rather than a south-easterly, so temperatures may not get that high, more like high teens to low twenties due to us being on the cool side of the ridge. July could be another mixed month but hopefully with more influence from high pressure, hopefully not as unsettled as May or June, both of which I have to say have been fairly poor for a large part of Ireland.
As of now it looks we will stay in the current cool and unsettled pattern until at least Friday or Saturday. From Sunday high pressure will ridge in from the south-west with the winds coming around the top of the high across Ireland from a west to slightly north-westerly direction.
As this is the cool side of the ridge expect the onshore westerly winds to keep things relatively cool along western and north-western coasts generally 14 to 18C. Slightly warmer than this across the south and east maybe 17 to 20C with 21 or 22c possible in the far south-east.
As we move into the middle part of next week the high may position itself closer to us, this would allow higher temperatures as we would lose that westerly or north-westerly wind direction.
This would allow temperatures rise into the low to mid twenties across the country away from coastal areas.
As we approach the following weekend, the high may begin to come under pressure from low pressures to our north once again.
Low pressures diving from Greenland/Iceland could well end this settled spell but at the moment we might get a relatively short one week spell of dry and settled weather. The positioning of the high is key to what sort of temperatures we can expect. If the high stays to our west we would end up on the cool side for the most part. If the high positions over us temperatures would definitely then become a bit warmer but it remains to be seen how successful this high sets up close to our positon and how long it can influence our weather.
There is still a good chance that the high will eventually break down with us going back into a similar pattern of weather that we have right now. The washing machine of low pressures may well get another go over us but we shall see.
The ECM and GEM not as warm as the GFS and keeps the unsettled weather going into next weekend and struggles to get the high pressure in over us next week so I think this high pressure solution from next Sunday still has some ways to go before we can be certain of a decent repsite next week.
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Another update for the 12z models. GFS is simiilar to what I posted earlier for the 6z. High pressure taking over from Sunday or Monday and lasting for about 4 or 5 days. This time the high centers over us quicker than the 6z with less of a north-westerly but the high continues to move eastwards and we briefly pull in a warm south-easterly on it's departure before unsettled weather from the Atlantic takes over once again.
The GEM is finally starting to latch onto the idea of a dryer spell, however unlike the GFS this is definitely a cool side of the ridge scenario with more average temperatures. In this scenario it would be quite cloudy at times with drizzle in western and north-western coasts so not as good as the GFS. Still plenty of time for this to change. At least the GEM is now looking a little bit better than it was.
The Icon is now coming into the timeframe to show that heights will rise from the start of next week, but we don't get far enough to see any further progress.
The UKMO stops just as the high begins to make a move.
ECM similar to this mornings run, brings in the ridge from Tuesday but maintains that westerly or slightly north-westerly flow.Looking on the bright side next week shouldn't be nearly as wet or as windy as this week and temperatures should improve somewhat close to average or a little bit above.
I think things will begin to settle down from Monday but this certainly won't be a heatwave scenario but that won't stop the rag papers posting about melting temperatures of 18C. This is still 6 days away so alot can change between now and next Saturday. We could all do with a break from the dissapointing temperatures, wind, rain and averageness of what has dominated this summer so far. While southern and eastern areas has faired a bit better during the middle part of June, this summer has been below par throughout the country.
To date my area has only had 4 days of 20C or more this June and unlikely to see 20C again until July. Last summer I had 10 days of 20C+ in June and 22 days of 20C+ in July. Last August brought 7 days of 20C so goes to show how poor this June has been. This summer has a huge level of catch up to even reach the standard of last summer.
We've only had 1 decent nationwide day of summer up to this point, July and August better deliver more.
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GFS 18z rolling out and we're starting to get a better idea how temperatures will be like in the early part of next week. Temperatures will warm up but as this will have a westerly to north-westerly wind direction around the high, temperatures will be limited across the north and north-west and down western coasts. A complete reverse of a high pressure under a south-easterly winds where southern and eastern coasts would have it coolest with the warmest conditons in the mid west and north-west.
Tuesday see's low twenties across much of the midlands, east, south and south-west. Donegal and the western coastal counties taking a bit hit to temperaures with those sea breezes and more cloudy drizzely conditons keeping temperatures there in the mid teens.
Going from these charts, the south-west of Kerry and southern coastline of Cork may see the best temperatures with temperatures similar to the few warm days we had last week and the week before. These temperatures are a bit above average but not by much. However in sunshine it should feel very pleasant.
Overall the GFS 18z is more like the GEM and ECM now where the high tries to ridge in but never quite gets to move in over us properly which would allow much sunnier and warmer conditions. This is a bit like a rerun of last weeks weather where cloud could be troublesum. How long this high pressure lasts is still a bit of an unknown but on the 18z it lasts into the second week of July if a bit shaky at times. However in this sort of setup somewhere like Cork or Waterford could do very well. Throughout this run the warm weather and high pressure fails to have any impact on Scotland in particular with Ireland on a bit of a knifesedge between high pressure and lower pressure. The Jetstream is a little too close for comfort here. The high pressure has a bit of a battle on its hands trying to ridge north with that very deep area of low pressure over southern Greenland and Iceland with it's eyes fixed on Ireland and Scotland. This battle has been in place since May and looks like continuing into July but at least for now the end of the first week of July with the second week should see an improvement in temperatures and less rainfall than the current awful autumnal setup we are in.
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The ECM 42 extended has been updated again (updates twice per week) and it is contuing it's trend from the last update which is a warm up during July and for the month to be fairly dry overall. End of July and first 2 weeks of August (as far as the modeling goes to) looks signicantly warmer than average and rather dry too. Of course a 42 day extended forecast cannot be relied upon as everything past day 5 is generally unreliable but good to see that 2 updates in a row now look promising for a chunk of this summer to turn out warmer and more settled.
The ECM short range models are starting to pick up on the drying and warming trend beginning from Monday with a switch from the current cool and wet setup to something much more like summer next week.
Above ECM ensemble shows the upper air temperatures will remain below normal until about Sunday or early monday with wet conditions at times. From Monday the upper air temperaures will go from several degrees below normal to several degrees above normal and we become much dryer as we head through the 1st and into the 2nd week of July. Perhaps things may turn more unsettled again by the middle of July but that's along way off.
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GFS 12z still on course for a signifcant improvement to our weather starting from early next week. We start off with fairly standard temperatures but quickly it becomes much warmer as next week progresses and end up with mid to possibly high twenties before a breakdown occurs.Possibly this is a hot outlier and when the time comes low to mid twenties would be the best we can expect. This high pressure is in a much better position than previous GFS runs and gone is the cool westerly or north-westerly winds.
We get one properly hot day with this with GFS going for 28 or 29C which probably certaintly won't verify.
By Tuesday 12th much cooler air takes over from the Atlantic, so in total this GFS runs gives about a week of warm weather which turns increasingly very warm to hot and that includes western and north-western areas as well. The 12z is still rolling out and I bet this is very much an outlier. I suspect this level of heat will be gone on the 18z later tonight.
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The GFS operational posted above is not an outlier until the plumey end around 11th of July, that bit is a definite hot outlier.
The ECM 12z very similar to the GFS, builds in the high pressure over us but we can't see any further than 240 hours.
UKMO also on same track but stops at 168 hours. GEM builds the high pressure towards us but is more like yesterday's charts which keeps us in a cooler westerly flow so it's not as warm as the GFS or ECM.
Very good cross model agreement now that things will settle down and warm up from about Monday into Tuesday and on into the rest of next week. This is shaping up to be the first slice of summer this year, let's hope the models stick with this and we get at least 4 to 6 days of warm and sunny weather after a fairly delayed start to the summer.
The main question now is will the high just slide towards us from the west and then retreat back into the mid Atlantic or will it actually sit over us for a few days to bring us properly warm or very warm days.
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The GFS 12z operational has completed. I said above the high pressure looks like coming to a swift end around the 11th or 12th of July. However the final few frames shows this cool breakdown as very short lived as the oven doors are swung open by Thursday/Friday 14th/15th July with temperatures getting close to 30C in Leinster and Munster and possibly a historic never happened before 40C in the London area. If these last few frames of the GFS 12z aren't an extreme hot outlier i'll eat my hat. The chances of this verifying are basically 0% as Ireland never does well from heat plumes but it's fun to see on the models.
The GFS underplays it's temperatures by 2 to 3C during the summer so add those onto the temperatures below as a guide.
The fact that the mediterranean sea temperatures are like a hot bath right now means any very hot air moving northwards out of Africa will have little to no sea modifcation as it moves up through France and Spain. This would lead to potential plume scenarios like the one above bringing extroadinary temperatures into France and perhaps south-east England.
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No words for it really...
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