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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Posts: 257 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We went from one extreme to another in Donegal! Very hot this PM, have the windows upstairs open. Compared to last week when the windows were shut all day with the heating on for a while in the evening.

    At least we live in a temperate climate area.

    It's scary what is going on in the world.

    I think I need to learn to properly GIY.



  • Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭cheezums


    The hottest day in UK history was 38.7 in 2019. If they break 40 next week just 3 years later that is pretty frightening stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    If only we could beat the 33.3c



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,217 ✭✭✭pauldry


    The seal is broken already. They said there'd be irreversible Climate Change a couple of years ago if nothing was done. Nothing was done.

    40c is a regular occurance in Western Europe now and paper straws won't make it any better just harder to open your caprisun.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,137 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The general theme is for very warm to hot weather over next weekend and into the early days of the following week, changes in positioning of heat and certain variances form run to run but not that great of a difference either but the trend seems to be gathering pace of producing some notable high temperatures ( currently showing high 20's or even 30C at times ). ECM going on to show a thundery breakdown at the end of the run as it now tracks the area of LP coming up from Biscay to track close to or over Ireland , certainly an interest for Thunderstorms with all that heat about and introducing moisture and instability.






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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,107 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    32 IN SOUTHWEST



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,169 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    If that verified the Shannon weather station could well break the record, would be touch and go....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    We've had a big discussion on Shannon AP station on this forum regarding it's siting - If Shannon beats 33.3c by a small measurement it should be with alot of scepticism owing to the siting.

    Interesting weekend/start to next week ahead eitherways.



  • Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭WJL


    Shannon is situated near a lot of tarmac. It's like a bloody car park as Roy Keane would say!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭compsys


    The fact that Shannon often records its highest temp of the day around 6pm (or even later) would suggest its location isn't ideal.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    If Shannon does break the all time record this coming weekend, then I will go with what the professionals in met Eireann verify, rather than amateurs on a discussion forum. I am sure the site of the weather station has been assessed as being accurate and a robust reflection of air temperatures for that location.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,217 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Maybe somewhere like Dooks will get high temperature n we won't need to work about the tar.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Why ever did they end up closing Kilkenny, Birr and Clones stations in the past?

    Because of developmental encroachment leading to readings that were likely/potentially to be artificially inflated.

    Shannon has had even more developments than say Kilkenny and would warrant closure/relocation.

    I suspect that the fact it's an airport lends weight to keep a functioning station running eitherway and probably the lack of funds has meant that relocation hasn't happened - but it should.

    It's known that Dublin Airport's station was relocated before the recession - presumably when funds were more plentiful. As with a fair few things that got cut during the recession, I suspect Met Eireann's budget hasn't been fully restored to levels they used to have, hence the situation we are now in regarding Shannon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Shannon AP weather station highlighted - for the benefit of those who didn't see the topic covered a few years back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,025 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    There's so much talk about the UK, that we might lose sight of the fact that we will also be hit with exceptional heat.

    Ukmo and gfs both showing uppers of 20C which could deliver 31/32C Sunday afternoon. Dependent on cloud cover of course..

    Our own highest ever record could also go!!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'll be digging out a dark basement to hide in for the duration 😆



  • Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭WJL


    Limerick and Kilkenny might see the reintroduction of a water break on Sunday!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,025 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The ECM is basically boiling hot by Monday. If the sun comes out record's will be broken. I'd say the minimum Sunday night will be 20C+

    Time for Met Eireann to get a heat warning out also!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    A lot of speculation about high temperatures this coming weekend. Realistically, are we likely to see this materialise? I'm not expecting anything decent in Donegal but am interested in how southern and eastern areas fare out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 690 ✭✭✭US3


    It's 7 days away, it'd be ridiculous to put out warnings so far away for any weather event. It could turn out to be a completely average day yet



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  • Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭WJL


    They usually wait until 3 or 4 day range don't they? Ophelia had a warning on the Friday for Monday in 2017 I think. I can't remember how many days with the Beast 2018.

    Great to have 'exciting' weather to look forward to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,107 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    The pig muck wont be too far away from donegal, so its a case of as you were ,after this warm spell the weather will become unsettled more widely across the uk and ireland, so just a continuation of the pig scutter for us throughout the period. Hopefully will get a day or 2 in august before the summer ends,but august is usually a complete disaster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭WJL


    I remember the July 1989 heatwave. It was 30c in the midlands for a week in mid July. Malin Head recorded 15C. The sea for and being westerly and northerly does you no favours.

    Then 10 years ago in 2012 most of the country had a washout. It was low pressure from Biscay etc. Donegal had a very nice summer.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Models still looking very warm to hot for next weekend and on the Monday. Last nights 18z had 2 of the hottest outliers getting to 32C here at Dunshaughlin. While Those 2 outliers had 0% of verifying, it is the first time I have ever seen a weather model reach 32C for this area since I began model watching. The GFS today not as over the top as yesterday at least here for Meath, temperatures more mid twenties and none get close to 30C. The GEM does get to 30C with a few outliers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,457 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    It's also pushing out a la standard winter fare. It was the 15th this time last week, now its the 18th and on I'm sure it will go.

    Back to winter tonight in Dublin, windy, dull and cool.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,137 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM really on the heat now, showing a steady build up into the weekend , possibly low to mid 20's Fri, up to mid 20's on Sat, high 20's Sun, high 20's or 30C on Monday and could see low to mid 20's on Tuesday with a thundery breakdown, that said the following days getting into the low to mid 20's so staying warm.

    GFS similar, difference in where the hottest temps will be but that is not important at this stage just that it is looking more likely of a very warm to hot spell over the weekend and into the following week. Monday the 18th looking like the hottest day but both Sun and Mon look very warm to hot.








  • Registered Users Posts: 1,396 ✭✭✭esposito


    Cool. Are you mad? It’s still very warm despite the cloudy conditions.

    As for next weekend/Monday 18th it is a bit frustrating that it’s getting pushed out. There could potentially be another reload of heat a week or so after. Summer is all to play for and I for one am relieved it finally started.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The models are definitely starting to show hints that there maybe a 3rd warm spell sometime around end of July but let's see can we make the 2nd warm spell verify to some extent. The biggest problem with the upcoming warm spell will be getting that heat far enough north and west to have a proper impact on Ireland. 6 days to go with that, alot can happen in that time.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,137 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Seeing some warm night time temperatures next weekend also, easily mid to high teens, and showing some places not dropping below 20C overnight Sun night/ Mon morning and Mon night / Tues morning and possibly Tues night / Weds morning.

    Time to purchase the fans before they are all gone !




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GEM 12z is looking like a rather hot spell in places. Not often we see several days of potential hot weather in Ireland.

    Saturday builds the heat, nothing overly warm at this stage but very pleasant temperatures in sunshine.

    Sunday turns very warm with temperatures possibly getting to 27C, similar values to what we had today.

    Monday dials the heat up another notch and gets us to the low 30s between Kerry and Dublin.

    A bit cooler on the Tuesday but still very warm with up to 30C possible in places.

    Cooler again on Wednesday but temperatures still on the warm side.

    This is still well deep into FI so a few pinches of salt for now. The heat doesn't make it into Scotland on any of these charts so we are depending on the heat and high uppers to make it well into Ireland. We need the whole country covered in at least +15 uppers to get the high twenties going like what is suggested on these charts.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Looking at the latest 10 days charts from ECM this evening, it would appear that there will be a breakdown with the bay of biscay low in charge for next Monday and Tuesday but afterwards it will turn dry and warm again beyond. The precipitation that we get for early next week, could be the difference between water supply rationing or not here. The farming community will have a keen interest on the possibility of thunderstorms for sure in 7 days time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    That's a shame however the heatwave last July here was stunning. It was hot and sunny for 7 straight days and felt incredibly hot at times. I remember one particular day and even beside the sea's edge it was uncomfortably hot. Was it a once in a decade or more event? This weekend will tell all.....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,105 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Once in a decade? We've had multiple similar spells almost as good in the last 10 years, 2013 and 2018 had great spells too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    Mainly referring to Donegal and yes we had good spells then but the one last year was by far the most intense.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Summer 2022 might in time get rememered as a summer with short bursts of very high temperatures with cooler interludes. The July 2021 heatwave was at least 7 continuous days of heat, this time around it's more like a few occassions of 2 to 3 very warm days.

    But looking back over the past 5 years in Meath we definitely seem to be getting warmer temperatures a bit more regularly than in the 80s, 90s and 00s. Temperatures of 19 to 23C are nothing special we get those regularly through June to early September but getting past 24C was always a stumbling block and getting past 25C a rarity here in Meath due to sea breezes or warm uppers not reaching it this far north.

    Over the past 5 years getting to 24C is no longer considered an achievement and getting to 26C is where it starts to become more difficult. The stumbling block is now 27C and 28C is maybe once every few years.

    I doubt i'll see a 29C or 30C next week but would love to get another 28C, that would make it 2 years in a row.

    Post edited by Gonzo on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,107 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    25 AT 9AM



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,107 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    THEN LATER HIGH 20S/30 WIDELY

    32 IN THE MEATH REGION AND MIDWEST




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This pub run has lost itself. A 32C in Meath is about as likely as a 30C on the Shetland Islands! Fun charts to see but this pub run is a bit too much to take in any way seriously!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,217 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Britain's chances of getting over 40c are lessening now. Some place there may touch it and that would be a record. Here 30c looks attainable on latest charts but we know things can moderate closer to the event. e.g. snow, storms, frosts but rarely rain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    18z hotter than the 12z for Monday. Much of the country nudging 28-30 degrees. No 40s for the UK here but seriously widespread intense heat for them. I'm in London for a few hours on Monday and it'll be toasty as.


    Tuesday looking very warm now too for many, especially the east. On second look this is a sizeable jump in warmth here on Tuesday.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Agreed. However, looking its likely that most of the Royal county will be nicely above that 26 threshold for a couple of days. 😉



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,673 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    If it's of any interest... in the county of Meath, I get the following months that each threshold was achieved. Although this is not related to FI charts in any way, then again lots of posts haven't been.

    This includes the stations Dunsany, Navan, Warrenstown, Kells, Dunmoe.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    4 days in the high twenties with some low 30s for Meath. I'm fairly convinced this has never happened in Meath during any of our lifetimes. Finding it very tough to take this pub run seriously. It's possible for Shannon or MT Dillion but certaintly not Meath.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This pub run keeps on giving. After the 4 day period of high twenties to low 30s we stay mainly high pressure dominated with low 20s throughout and then the odd mid 20s day here and there. Not a drop of rain away from Donegal/Mayo right out to 312 hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,673 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Just taking a moment to bank these ridiculous charts.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The 40c might chop and change on each run for a while yet. Hard to say about 40c but the overall record being challenged looks a decent shout at this stage, could all change though.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Tonights unbelieveable GFS pub run is not an outlier. There are roughly 10 other members that go hotter at various points. The mean has now shifted from +14 to +17. Hottest outlier gets to +24. Unbelieveable stuff. I have never in my years of model watching seeing anything quite this extreme.

    Surely the 00z and 12z tomorrow will be a bit more sensible. This uppers are nuts even for London, nevermind anywhere in Ireland. This ensemble graph is basically the same as it is for London in terms of uppers, just a degree or 2 lower.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Tonights pub run also starting to show some interesting risk of thunderstorms.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,137 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I think all the charts need to be taken into consideration at this stage, I think that the high 20's close to 30C is very possible going by the consistency of the output but I believe it is well within the bounds of reality to get over 30C too. With the build up of heat over the weekend after a mild to warm week, the peak might nudge it over 30C and who knows we might see coming close to or the record being broken.Why not. Taking into account quality and accuracy of equipment in the past and how relatively recent these records were then it would seem very plausible that they might be broken in our life time, maybe even twice!

    This is hot air that is partially travelling over very high ground temps in Spain and France and crossing the sea that has warmed up nicely too, actually forecast to be warmer then average and moving over warmed up land here as well, some of the warmed air might also be sourced from the UK come Monday too.

    We will see where wind direction and the position of the LP will play a big part no doubt as the warm airs are steered in over us, might even be bit a bit breezy on Sunday and with a long fetch overland possibly from the South then air temperatures might peak further up the country as the sun warms that airmass even more through the day, could be some mighty Fohn in action also.By Monday the airmass looks to be fully established and with a bit more heating should give us those temperatures into the high 20's or over 30C or close to the record or.......😉










  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,980 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo



    Icon is a model which I find generally downplays temperature and weather extremes for Ireland and this model still looks very warm for Ireland.

    +22 uppers over Cork on the Monday.

    Final frame only goes to 12pm on Tuesday 19th. The 15:00 chart if we could see it would probably go for 30.

    From tomorrow we will be entering a slightly more reliable timeframe so Sundays/Mondays heat potential could go to the other thread as the heat will build from early Saturday.



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