FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Little snowy old me · 10-07-2022 9:32am

MT's forecast this morning has vastly downgraded any such potential temperatures. No one wants severe heat in ireland but two or three days of high temps, say 28 to 32, would have been welcome. Ah well, maybe next year.

pad199207 · 10-07-2022 9:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119316016#Comment_119316016

I love how you think that you speak for everyone

Hairypoppins · 10-07-2022 10:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119316016#Comment_119316016

That's because MT bases his forecasts off the AM gfs run ,the euro models dis morning beg to differ

JanuarySnowstor · 10-07-2022 11:17am

The plume is heading to Cork on this run!!

10-07-2022 11:26am

31c for some parts of the south next Sunday on the latest gfs.

42c for England again.

Edit- Goes hotter again on Monday for England with 43c. 3 consecutive days above 40c for parts of England. Mental

squarecircles · 10-07-2022 11:53am

3 days of plus 40 degrees for souther England on the 06z GFS.

Historic heat and

standard misery along atlantic coastal areas.

15 in west mayo and 42 in norfolk.

couldnt make it up,cud ya.

Billcarson · 10-07-2022 1:01pm

Uncharted territory. Very sad state of affairs. If those temperatures happen in England. The 40c english seal broken. All bets would be off............

King of Spades · 10-07-2022 2:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119316429#Comment_119316429

I know where I’d prefer to be in those temps! And it’s not Norfolk!

Meteorite58 · 10-07-2022 2:09pm

And just like that ECM back with warm to hot temperatures over next weekend with Sunday now being the main focus as the warmer day showing temperatures up to 28C on the latest run, the chart below is for 13.00 and next one is for 19.00 and showing 28C in the S / SE so would expect mid to high 20'S for large parts of the country going by this run not nailed down yet but something is afoot now that it is turning up more and more, would want to see a few runs showing this to become a bit more sure, Sat and Mon could see temps getting up t o 25C or so according to the 0Z.

GFS showing getting up to 31C and widespread 25C+ , not as outragouss as it first appeared given what the ECM is now showing too.

GFS show's up to 27C for Sat and another 30C for Mon and up to 25C for Tues.

The area of LP to the S is the key, now staying much lower around Biscay helping to guide in the warm plume of air.

Neddyusa · 10-07-2022 2:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119316429#Comment_119316429

Extreme and all as those temps look, it's over 7 days away so extremely unlikely to verify.

Forecast models seem to be much poorer in the last two years.

I know when flights were grounded initially with Covid there was a dearth of data. Are they still working with reduced input data?

compsys · 10-07-2022 2:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119316429#Comment_119316429

I say this every year.

Eastern England is around 800km away from the far west of Ireland. That's a huge difference. Even Dublin is over 500KM away.

While I imagine it'll be warmer than 15º in Mayo and cooler than 42º in England, a temp contrast that big over 800 or so KMs isn't unheard of.

Bergen in Norway is around 500km from Oslo with a vastly different climate. As is San Fran to Las Vegas.

For our own sanity if nothing else, we need to stop thinking we deserve the English climate or what we're 'unlucky' for missing out.

JanuarySnowstor · 10-07-2022 4:23pm

Well first out the blocks is the Icon and there's a notable shift West of next weekends plume. Showing serious heat moving up over Ireland!!

igCorcaigh · 10-07-2022 4:32pm

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/1546154652936421376

...

10-07-2022 5:05pm

...

JanuarySnowstor · 10-07-2022 5:25pm

Gfs follows Icon moving the plume further West. Heatwave next weekend for Ireland looking likely!

munsterlegend · 10-07-2022 5:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119318113#Comment_119318113

What’s temperatures we looking at JS?

JanuarySnowstor · 10-07-2022 5:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119318127#Comment_119318127

Looks like 30c +

Given its peak Summer, the record could go!

Little snowy old me · 10-07-2022 5:33pm

Do one

Gonzo · 10-07-2022 5:43pm

GFS 12z could deliver 33C in parts of Cork, Clare or Limerick next Sunday with widespread low 30s across the southern half of Ireland.

Icon not as hot but still hot.

GEM the coolest of the lot with warmth restricted to south eastern half of Ireland.

Interesting times ahead. I would dearly love our 33C record to be finally matched and beaten, if futher upgrades happen we could be looking at 34C, however this is almost a week away and what goes wrong will go wrong and we will end up probably mid to high twenties with a few places scraping 30C. For any of this to verify we need it to be clear unbroken gin blue skies and not a cloudfest. If we end up with too much cloud across the country forget about temperatures going much above 24C.

Billcarson · 10-07-2022 5:54pm

Hope we can hang on to our 33c record for as long as possible in our changing climate........

Gonzo · 10-07-2022 6:13pm

UKMO keeps the warmth restricted to just one day (next Saturday) and looks more realistic compared to the GFS.

As of now all models are going for some very warm weather next weekend but the GFS definitely still the warmest and lasts for almost 3 days.

fits · 10-07-2022 6:24pm

Genuinely believe people will be coming to ireland to escape these temperatures in future. Drought is seriously affecting yields worldwide this year also. Not at all happy at prospect of 40/45 in England or France.

Billcarson · 10-07-2022 7:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119318386#Comment_119318386

Yes,I find it very worrying the possibility of 40c + in the likes of England. Even if it doesn't happen next weekend the very fact that the models are even suggesting such is worrying in itself. Alarm bells should be ringing.

PokeHerKing · 10-07-2022 7:11pm

40c+ is the GFS summer version of 20 inches of snow. I'll believe it when happens. Until then put the roseary beads away.

Billcarson · 10-07-2022 7:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119318588#Comment_119318588

Will happen sooner or later in England, only a matter of time imo. Hopefully just not yet though.

Hairypoppins · 10-07-2022 7:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119318602#Comment_119318602

Why are you so uptight about the potential for record breaking temperatures in England nxt weekend?i find the whole set up exciting,this is a weather forum after all ,it's what we look for ,extremes

Billcarson · 10-07-2022 7:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119318653#Comment_119318653

I'm interested in extremes too but the possibility of 40c + in England is surely worrying from a climate change perspective. We should be hoping to NOT be breaking heat records instead of getting excited about the potential next weekend. Thats the way I view this particular possible event. Of course the weather will do what it will do whatever we hope or don't hope for.......

Edit , just to mention I'm more of a cold hunter then a heat hunter anyway. Autumn/ winter is more my thing when it comes to weather.

Chris_5339762 · 10-07-2022 8:02pm

In my experience for winter, low pressures end up further north and arrive more quickly than modelled, pushing further to the east more quickly too. That would keep the plume away from us.

I want that to happen because two 75 year old parents in an uncoolable house really is not something I want to have to deal with next weekend.

pauldry · 10-07-2022 8:54pm

These heat events are gradually pushing North. Eventually it had to happen.

Billcarson · 10-07-2022 9:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119318996#Comment_119318996

Thats what worries me.....

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST