FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Tazio

Friday 19th on (FI chart) is noteworthy for the south -- we could be looking at some interesting levels of rain on very dry ground.

mr.stonewall

The type of rain will do very little to resolve soil moisture deficits. Majority of ground has a natural slope. When that volume of water falls in such a short time on hard ground most of it runs straight off. It can cause rivers to rise very quickly. The only way the to resolve SMDs it a few days of 5-10mm of misty rain. This really lowers the evaporation rate and starts to drop SMD.

Imagine a sieve with dry rice. Pour a bucket of water over it quickly, it will dry out with serious run off. Then do similar but this time mist water on it for a sustained period of a few hours. The difference is huge

Tazio

Agreed; heavy rain on very dry ground would cause other issues for sure. We've deep bore-wells here locally; I'm choosing this year to ignore the levels. Ignorance is bliss at the moment :)

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119443819#Comment_119443819

I had a peek down the well yesterday. It's about 10 metres down to the water but I can see no real change in the level since the Spring..... No pun intended 😉

Tazio

^^ thank you for that; phew. :) TBH I think the last time I saw our well drop significantly was the Autumn of 2007.... from memory that was a long dry spell.

(EDIT :: sorry mods for going off topic on this thread - I'll shut up now. )

Tazio

Looks like 19th Aug we're on for that rain again here in south.... (still a long way off yet of course).

(Mods - feel free to delete chatter above)

Elmer Blooker

Hello?

Gonzo

If your fed up of the warmth and sunny weather probably not a great idea to look at the GFS 12z! After a brief interuption this week it looks like we may go back into a lengthy spell of high pressure. Some eastern areas may not see daytime temperatures lower than 20C until September if the GFS 12z verifies. However I feel everything past this Tuesday is uncertain so would need to see more runs to believe this high pressure fest will carry on for the rest of the month.

Gonzo

GFS 12z a fairly significant shift to warmer weather after a bit of a cool down this week coming. Hopefully we will see further shifts to high and dry over the coming days.

Elmer Blooker

I’m becoming increasingly optimistic for the second half of August, we are seeing a lot of this.

Gonzo

Yep Elmer, plenty of high pressure fests showing up recently on the GFS at least. Over the past year I have found the GFS far more reliable than the ECM or GEM when it comes to trends, sometimes the CFS extended also can show hints from along way out.

There is a good deal of uncertaintly over the next few weeks but I'll be amazed if we don't pull off another decent shot of summer before mid September. We are unlikely to see 30C again this year but a spell of low to high twenties with high pressure seems likely at some point over the next 2 to 3 weeks. As much as I would like a warm to hot September that can be a bad thing if you want to build up hopes of a decent winter and I have a feeling we're in for a rerun of September 2021.

Midway through May I thought we had finally broken the year long spell of high pressure fests and above normal temperature anomalies but I was wrong and here we are back in the same position as this time last year after a mostly dry and very warm 6 week spell since the start of July. The only difference between now and last year is that the first half of August has truly delivered and we may not be done with the warmth yet, probably just another brief interruption over the coming week before were back under high pressure central.

Billcarson

How many months since July last year have been above average for temperatures? Must be nearly all of them. If we want a decent winter for cold ( although that of course wouldn't be good for heating bills) we need to break out of this overall warm period of the last year.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119469720#Comment_119469720

There hasn't been a single cooler than average month since May 2021.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119469720#Comment_119469720

On a national scale, all of them since June 2021 inclusive. May 2021 was the last colder than average month. April and June were closer to average locally. This spell of mild anomalies is even longer than the ridiculous 2006-07 run.

igCorcaigh

I think we have to acknowledge the forecasts that predicted the 40C that occurred in England a few weeks ago, which was well out in FI at the time. Weeks beforehand, when everyone was WTF??

I don't know much about the modelling behind the forecasts, but they are impressive at dealing with such a complex system as weather.

doccy

whatever side of the fence you fall on this is the new normal, for now at least mild winters and decent summers are decent for the island

fits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470279#Comment_119470279

If the rest of the world is burning we won’t have it to ourselves for long. People will be coming here to escape the temperatures elsewhere.

Danno

Temperature wise, the last weekend of August is looking decent on the GFS 06z run...

Aaaand... the all-too-familiar 1st of September "Back to School" is a clear blue sky morning. You can nearly always bet on Sep 1st to be clear and sunny to start the school year. (Traditionally Sept 1st was back to school day or the following Monday if the 1st fell on a weekend day... simpler times).

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470267#Comment_119470267

Yes and no. A broken clock is right twice a day as they say.

Up to 7 days the models are very good now (though for Ireland it's maybe closer to 5 days if you're looking for a very accurate forecast).

After 7 days it's still very, very hit and miss.

Yes - the GFS in particular picked up the 40º impressively far in advance. Bit it's given incorrect long-term forecasts hundreds of times over the past year as well (as have all the models).

sryanbruen

I can't say the teleconnections provide much additional confidence to add on this occasion for the prospect of another push of high pressure from the Azores towards late August and early September. They do suggest there will be some kind of ridge but at what position, extent and strength? Usually we do see warmer weather in early September stereotypically coinciding with back to school week. It's one of the weather singularities with the highest percentage of frequency that keeps occurring. I said the same in late May/early June which this year was quite cool. It seems 2022 likes to rewrite the rule book in many ways, will it do something more traditional this time?

Reminder that we're coming into the time of year where model reliability naturally goes down the tubes due to tropical cyclones being difficult to forecast, can get caught up in the North Atlantic jet stream and change the weather patterns dramatically from settled to unsettled or vice versa via warm air advection. It's been a quiet season to date but how long will this last with the prospects of La Niña returning which typically leads to active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Questions, questions, questions, ...

Gonzo

GFS 12z isa bit more encouraging for next week. Between now and Monday doesn't look great temperatures genearaly mid teens to high teens, coolest on Saturday with low to mid teens generally. After Monday it should warm up with high teens to low twenties back and towards the final days of August hints of mid twenties but that is along way off. Hopefully over the next 5 days we will see further improving signals for sunshine and decent warmth for the final week of August. It can't be much cooler than it is today.

almostthere12

ECM now is in on it with the high pressure nearly directly over us by Friday next week so looks like this is gaining a bit of traction across the models.

sryanbruen

Reasonable signal there from the GEFS 0z for some kind of ridge to take over by day 10 stretching from the Azores to Scandinavia.

Met also mention in the further outlook: "More settled conditions may develop later in the week. Highest temperatures remaining in the mid teens to low twenties."

whatever76

YR weather has cork city being miserable with rain on Sunday . of course planning an outdoor event - is it pretty accurate at this point to plan for rain from noon on Sunday ?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119484872#Comment_119484872

I wouldn't be planning any outdoor events this weekend as it will be a washout with bands of rain and showers on both Saturday and Sunday, between 10 and 25mm of rain over both days.

whatever76

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119485965#Comment_119485965

😫 - getting too used to settled/dry weather !! bring back the heat wave !! thanks for the warning !!

Gonzo

Fine settled weather should come back after this weekend towards the middle of next week. Next weekend could be very nice indeed but the warmth would not be to the levels we had over recent weeks.

igCorcaigh

ME are forecasting temps of 26C to 28C for Cork City next Wednesday and Thursday, but cloudy or wet. It's a while away yet, but some humid heat might be coming our way?

Gonzo

Things look like they may settle down from next Thursday but it's going a little flimsy/messy at this stage and temperatures will remain close to normal or a little above at times between now and end of August. I don't think we will see temperatures much higher than 21 or 22C between now and the 1st of September. Certainly no signs of real warmth on the models other than standard end of summer fair weather for the final week of August which may not be completely dry.

Dazler97

Are models still the same for the further outlook

Danno

Bemused at the 12zGFS - seems to have pushed back the HP another 24hrs to 36hrs.

Met Eireann says 3.5mm of rain for here in south Laois between now and lunchtime Saturday 27th, yet GFS says 23mm, GEM says 32mm, ECM says 7mm.

Models are all over the place!

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119487389#Comment_119487389

And now hugely downgraded to 23C at most.

Gonzo

The HP has been getting downgraded and pushed back for the past few days. It was originally supposed to become warm and settled on Monday, then Tuesday, yesterday it was Wednesday and now it's looking like all of next week will now be unsettled with things not settling down until the the final days of August with temperatures not that far from what we have right now. It could be September before this HP gets going and if it does get going it is likely to not last more than a few days at most as there is definite support for an unsettled and wetter than average September.

Just another 12 days and we flip into Autumn, once that happens I take off my sunglasses and start focusing on the winter.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492658#Comment_119492658

To be honest I’m not that bothered what happens in the next few weeks as I’ll be back to work end of August. ( I know a good few people take holidays in September as well so they’ll be very interested to see what transpires).

We got a nice hot plume in July albeit very brief and then that glorious week of v warm/hot sunny weather last week. I’m quite satisfied with the summer of 2022. And August finally delivered!

Gonzo

I would like at least one more sunny week with warm temperatures just as long as it doesnt roll into the second half of September. I'd like autumn to begin properly around the 2nd week of September.

GFS 6z rolling out and it stays largely unsettled to the 30th of August and temperatures only begin to reach 21C around the 1st of September. The low pressure that we are currently under is going to cycle around us for the next 10 days.

Gonzo

GFS 6z finishes with a rather artic looking blast about to take place.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493133#Comment_119493133

I'll be in lanzarote for the second half of September so I approve this message.

A nice south westerly pattern for Ireland tends to mean peak weather pattern for the canaries.

Cumhachtach

GFS in 6 days time hopeful. Models are not consistent so I'm not reading too much into beyond 4 days.

Gonzo

GFS 18z showing some fairly warm conditions to build again from this weekend after a fairly cool day on Friday. Temperatures possibly getting into the mid twenties again across Munster, Leinster, mid western areas and low twenties across the northwest during the early days of next week.

Bring it on, a possible 3 to 4 day blast of late summer warmth.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513423#Comment_119513423

I thought the Atlantic was coming back into force like something we haven't seen since February?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513686#Comment_119513686

The GFS has been showing that for the past week and on last nights pub run it gets going again after the above warm few days but as always it's FI and a full week away so i've been banking on downgrades to this scenario over the next week.

Gonzo

Just checking the 00z now and the GFS seems to be backing off the Atlantic onslaught alot. One of the main drivers for this big flip with the GFS on the very unsettled September charts is the MJO which is promoting high pressure for our region during early to mid September. This MJO also helped with forecasting the recent heatwave and the July heat spike which showed up on the models well out in to FI.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/madden-julian-oscillation

A fairly big shift in the GFS ensembles as well towards high and dry for the first half of September on the 00z. Once again it looks like the unsettled Atlantic forecast could be a complete and utter bust with very dry conditions to continue for the forseeable future and temperatures staying above normal through September. As we're still in August it's a bit early to tell how all of September will shape up but if this September was to run similar to September 2021 that would not bode well for Winter 2022/2023.

Will the 06z and 12z revert back to the unsettled and cooler September scenario or will we continue with the high pressure fest?

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514186#Comment_119514186

On the warm dry September usually resulting in a mild winter Gonzo. Has that been proven statistically over a long period of time? Off the top of my head September 1985 was warm, and followed by a cold winter, particularly February 1986.

I know yourself or Sryan will have work done on it.

Danno

If we get a substantially dry and mild to warm September, I feel our winter pattern will resemble our summer pattern this year...

Unsettled and mild first half, settled second half. But will that second half be a mild settled or a cold settled?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514287#Comment_119514287

I did an analysis on it last year using Phoenix Park data since the 19th century and I just refuse to believe the mean temperature of a single individual month has any bearing on a succeeding whole season like it's just silly. There was very little difference between the top 25 warmest Septembers and coldest Septembers with the coldest winters tending to fall in the middle but for all we know, it could just be statistical coincidence or noise. I have yet to see a scientific reason why one would think this.

Unfortunately, due to 2021-22 being among the mildest winters on record and September 2021 being the warmest on record at Phoenix Park, this "theory" lives on in the minds of people.

Here is the analysis for your own leisure: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939624#Comment_117939624

Admittedly, a scatter plot would have been better to present the data rather than a line graph.

1985 as you say was a warm September but in terms of the Central England Temperature that most base this theory off of, it was nothing exceptional unlike 1898, 1949, 2006, 2016, 2021 etc. Of which all the winters that followed were either mild or very mild.

Danno

Just to add, there is nothing scientific about the above Winter 22-23 thoughts, just my present gut feeling!!!

Gonzo

GFS 6z doubles down on high pressure even further with temperatures into the low twenties all the way to September 7th and little to no rainfall in most areas over the next 16 days. Lets see what the 12z brings. A huge difference on what the GFS has been showing for the past week.

Danno

Good to see the turnaround! Although some rain would be welcome.

Is this weekend still a write off?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514767#Comment_119514767

Weekend looks mostly dry across the east, south and midlands, maybe the odd isolated light shower. A bit more rain towards the north-west but nothing heavy, just annoying light rain or showers hugging north-western areas.

Rainfall over the next 10 days looks very light away from western and north-western coasts.

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514372#Comment_119514372

Thanks Sryan.