FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Danno

Today's 12Z and this evening's 18Z for next Thursday at 10pm...

That low over Iceland is getting obliterated! High pressure firmly taking over the roost this weekend and all of next week! Going to be very dry and if this pressure keeps building - quite sunny too.

adam240610

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119518343#Comment_119518343

Fingers crossed for anyone going to electric picnic that weekend!

highdef

The overnight GFS run has a low pressure over us as we enter autumn with plenty of rain in many areas with central, northern and eastern areas getting the heaviest falls. The low very slowly pulls away to the southwest, allowing warm air to approach from the south. Hopefully this is an outlier (unless you like cool and wet weather).

18:00 on Thursday 1st September:

Gonzo

That's a nasty looking dartboard low that mainly affects Ireland and plenty of rain and chilly temperatures with it. This is still over a week away so hopefully won't verify.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119518998#Comment_119518998

Sure a drop of rain wouldn't go astray!!!!!

Gonzo

ECM also picking up on that nasty little low and it hangs around Ireland for 3 to 4 days.

GEM not as unsettled as the GFS or ECM and drops it down through the UK and Ireland around the 3rd/4th of September.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119482210#Comment_119482210

There was the warning that the model reliability naturally goes down the tubes which we always see in late August and through September, and at the moment, we have two areas of interest that have a relatively low chance of becoming a tropical storm. Whilst not saying this is entirely the reason, I'll get onto the other in a moment, undoubtedly it is having an effect to some extent. Now the other reason is perhaps the models are finally trying to pick up on a major pattern change that we have not seen the dominance of since May 2021 with mid-Atlantic ridging starting to develop and a corresponding trough near us. We did see this briefly in late November 2021 but this was very much the exception. Pattern changes are always difficult to anticipate. Persistent warm areas of high pressure have tended to ridge into the UK & Ireland since the final days of May 2021. The pattern has been recurring again and again resulting in prolonged periods of warm and dry conditions, sometimes extreme and record-breaking as with mid-July 2021, early September 2021, mid-July 2022 and early to mid-August 2022.

I wouldn't be a betting man at the moment with what we can expect, however a traditional warm and dry back to school week is unlikely I think as 2022 continues to rewrite the rule book in many ways. We will see out the final days of August 2022 on a relatively dry note with sunny spells and somewhat warm conditions but unremarkably so, talking only low 20s for inland and western areas whilst the east coast could actually be relatively cool with an onshore easterly wind. Meanwhile, there seems to be somewhat of a trend to drop a trough from the northwest towards Ireland by September 2nd. This morning's models show this being parked over Ireland whilst the east of the UK draw in quite a warm airmass from the continent again. This trough sits around the country for several days bringing plenty of rain and being blocked off heading east by high pressure over Scandinavia. The GFS yesterday was much more towards Greenland blocking and bringing notably cold conditions for the time of year around the 4th-6th September with daytime maxima around low double digits and night time temps in single figures, the 06z yesterday morning especially showed a long fetched northeasterly flow that would be freezing cold in mid-winter. These were on the cool end of the ensembles and were undoubtedly over the top but they weren't total outliers so cannot be 100% ruled out. Significantly milder this morning but still unsettled.

The long range models, namely the EC monthly and the CFSv2, are also trending towards mid-Atlantic ridging through September 2022 and a corresponding trough to the east which isn't obvious on the CFSv2 but there would be. ECM chart is 500mb height anomaly forecast for 5th-12th September. As I say, would be a major pattern shift on anything we've seen since May 2021 but will it happen? A very warm, dry and sunny August followed by a cool and unsettled September, there's something we haven't seen in a while..

Cumhachtach

Most models ECM and GFS etc firming up on that low sinking on us a week from today. Personally I hope we've enough time for a u turn! September 1992 comes to mind if not.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524440#Comment_119524440

That's funny Cumhachtach, I was speaking to some about 1992 similarities earlier this year with the very dry and anticyclonic January - mean sea level pressure for January 2022 was the highest in England since 1992. However the similarities ended quick with springs 1992 and 2022 being very different apart from the fact both had warm Mays but 1992 would have been much more memorable to people than 2022. Then the summers have been very different too with no similarities to speak of. September 1992 was very westerly with a cold North Atlantic so westerlies were colder than usual and it was the coldest September since 1974 in the west. If we got a repeat of that this year, it wouldn't be nearly as cold with how warm the North Atlantic is. Got to remember the oceans were still feeling the aftermath effects of Mount Pinatubo from 1991 in 1992.

There's plenty of time for a u-turn, have you seen the wild changes that have occurred over the years? More especially in winter but yeah..

leahyl

Sorry to bring this off topic a little, but what happened in September 1992?

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524544#Comment_119524544

Exactly Sryan. And June was the best summer month of 1992. I was between Inter Cert (pre Junior cert!) and leaving cert. Weather was lovely in June for hay making and coming in watching Euro 92 in the evenings. I went back to boarding school, leaving cert, at the end of August. Day temps 13-16 at the end of that month. The dormitories felt really cold in September, like winter. I was stationed in one which was always freezing, and nicknamed Siberia!

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524585#Comment_119524585

Your typical changeable, unsettled Irish month with lots of cloud and some very wet days. The cold Atlantic made the westerlies colder than usual and led to well below average temperatures across the country both by day and by night, especially in the west. Temperature anomalies were over 2 degrees below average. A fair amount of stations had their highest temp of the month as only 17 or 18C. There was also common ground frost - even local air frost. A pretty grim harvesting month.

Also led into one of the coldest Octobers on record.

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524680#Comment_119524680

IIRC the 30th of September was the warmest day of the month, 18c reached. My uncle died that day and it sticks in my head. Just a pet day in the month though.

January had an awful anticyclonic gloom. Unlike the sun this January.

Billcarson

I really liked autumn 92. Felt very seasonal overall. There was some wintry showers about around mid October. I had hoped that autumn 92 was a sign that winter 92/93 would be a decent winter but sadly that was not really the case,although there was some decent frosty spells during December. There was no proper cold snowy spell. There was a cold snap near the end of Jan 93 with cold air coming across from Canada which gave some heavy wet snow showers, I think the west and northwest might have done well out of that.

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524715#Comment_119524715

Monday 11 Jan 1993 had snow showers on a north westerly that reached well inland, and the end of the month, but that was it. Halloween week had daytime temps of 6-10C (1992) which was chilly for that early. But as you say no proper wintry outbreak over winter 1992/93.

There was a cold blast at the end of February 1993, early March, only a couple of days and daytime temps were 3-6c. April, May, June 1993 were really wet iirc.

Cumhachtach

The models will eagerly be awaited today.

Sore throats and chest infections tend to be rampant when you get a sudden change to autumn.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524713#Comment_119524713

Met bulletin suggests 6th and 18th were the warmest days of September 1992 from a humid southwesterly giving 21C but there is no mention of the national max that month. My dataset gives a max of 21.0C on 18th at Dungarvan. I believe that's the lowest national Sep max since at least 1986, even 2015 which was also a notably cold Sep managed slightly higher with 21.4C. 2015 did achieve 24C in Scotland on the 30th and -1.3C at the same station on the same day, both the highest and lowest temps in the UK in Sep 2015.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524715#Comment_119524715

I had a feeling you'd have been a fan of that autumn, autumn 1993 too I would think given the second consecutive very cold Oct with record frosts and the cold Nov with the easterly. 1993-94 was a zonal winter but least each month did provide some kind of interest. Better than a lot of what the recent decade brought.

One thing I dread about this coming winter is with energy prices, I anticipate guilt tripping of those wishing for a cold winter will reach crazy numbers.

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524860#Comment_119524860

I see that re. September 1992 warmest days. I'm blaming south east radio!! They used give half hourly updates, which obviously weren't correct.

Some fella, name escapes me from Weather Call, used come onto local radio every Friday evening and give a forecast with a bit of sensationalism. He gave -9c nights and ice days for early March 1993. Was 6c and -3c nights.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524837#Comment_119524837

Yes you are right about the 11th jan 93 . looking at the archives,all that cold air coming out of Canada .

Billcarson

Yes syran, l loved autumns, 92 and 93. Felt a bit cheated though at the time though cos the winters that followed each weren't great. Though considering how poor many of our winters have been recently I would probably take similar winters now.

I liked autumn 90 aswell. Some light frosts late Sept. A cold snap near the end of October and one or 2 frosty spells in Nov,and at least winter 90/91 wasn't bad.

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119525272#Comment_119525272

Thanks Bill. First Monday back in school after Christmas. Stuck in my head. Snow as far south east as Carlow.

Cumhachtach

GFS 12z rolling out early FI and that low is really hanging around from 2nd September. Suppose it's 6/7 days out. But coming up consistently now.

Cumhachtach

ECM keeps the breakdown to around 3 wet, cool days and high pressure powers up from the south at the end of the run. That would help the drought and give us hope of more summery weather in the second week of September.

Dazler97

Is their an autumn thread

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585879#Comment_119585879

There is indeed:

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058261265/fi-charts-t120-onwards-autumn-2022-read-mod-note-in-first-post

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585993#Comment_119585993

Thank you

Elmer Blooker

an ‘Indian summer’ looking very likely now as head towards the equinox.

pauldry

Yes after Sunday and Monday the rain fest is over for a while and high pressure and temperatures of 18 to 22c take hold once more.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119597975#Comment_119597975

An Indian summer is more to do with good weather in October. Strictly speaking an Indian summer is summer like weather after the first frosts of the season ( or something like that). Though getting summer like weather after the first frosts would be more a north America thing ( native north americans being the Indians of course) with that being a continental climate, with quick turn arounds at times during the autumn.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119597975#Comment_119597975

I don't think a warm settled spell in September can be classified as an Indian Summer. I think the warm settled spell needs to occur in October to qualify. I'm open to correction.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119598338#Comment_119598338

Your right. Often summer like weather in September is called an Indian summer but its really October.

Elmer Blooker

I never gave the meaning of an ‘Indian summer’ much thought and just presumed it was summer like weather in autumn.

Anyway, still looks good this morning.

Gonzo

Looks very nice from next weekend, could get 5 to 6 days of high pressure with temperatures around 20C. However it is not an Indian summer. An Indian summer usually takes place in October or November and usually after the first frost of the season.

Danno

Quite cool by Sunday morning on the 12Z GFS.

Scotland gets an air frost by month's end...

Gonzo

GFS 12z opens up the door to the artic towards the end of it's run with possibly the first snows of the season in Scandinavia and temperatures in Scotland struggling to reach 5 or 6C by day.

Gonzo

Ok just noticed now we're still posting in the summer FI thread when they should be in the autumn thread. This thread will now be closed.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058261265/fi-charts-t120-onwards-autumn-2022-read-mod-note-in-first-post