Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer 2022

Meteorite58 · 23-07-2022 3:10pm

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-07-23

Convective weathet showing main focus for N Ireland later.

Meteorite58 · 23-07-2022 6:39pm

Picking up a few sferics now, heavy rain.

Meteorite58 · 23-07-2022 7:31pm

Very heavy rain but not that many sferics showing up.

Meteorite58 · 23-07-2022 8:39pm

Fair storm now on the N coast moving towards Scotland.

https://twitter.com/barrabest/status/1550913281157652480?s=20&t=vIpTrjTiqRhJsgt61gWt6Q

https://twitter.com/ClaireThamesCo/status/1550918257124818945?s=20&t=vIpTrjTiqRhJsgt61gWt6Q

Oscar Bravo · 23-07-2022 9:31pm

Some bad flooding up North this evening with those showers.

NIMAN · 23-07-2022 9:37pm

Some images of the Derry flooding

Meteorite58 · 24-07-2022 10:08am

From convective Weather

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 25 Jul 2022

ISSUED 08:06 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Initially positively-tilted upper trough will swing across the British Isles on Sunday with cool air aloft overspread a humid low-level airmass yielding 500-900 J/kg CAPE across portions of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland in an environment with reasonably strong speed shear. Showers/areas of showery rain over Ireland and Northern Ireland will gradually intensify into Sunday afternoon, with a few thunderstorms likely. Northern and eastern portions of Ulster are most favoured due to the longer land track and time for thunderstorms to mature/grow upscale into a cluster, these then exiting across the North Channel and into SW Scotland - where a marginal MDT has been included. There is the potential for 40-60mm to fall in parts of SW Scotland, perhaps even locally above 80mm, and as such a SVR has been introduced for the risk of surface water flooding. The strongest storms may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

Additional showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will be possible in NE Scotland and Caithness during the afternoon, drifting offshore across the Moray Firth. Also, portions of NE/E England may need monitoring for the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the stalled cold front, although it may be that any thunderstorms that do occur (if any) tend to intensify as they drift offshore and across the North Sea. Finally, historically there had been hints of an uptick in possible elevated convection along/ahead of the cold front in parts of SE England and East Anglia coast on Sunday night, although that suggestion has now reduced in recent model guidance.

glightning · 24-07-2022 4:14pm

Just had a decent storm here in Ballinderry, Co.Antrim. Started off with frequent CC's high up every few seconds and then progressed to either CC or CG with louder thunder every 30 seconds to a minute between each one. Poor visibility due to heavy rain and mist made it difficult to spot any CG's. Multi-cell in nature as thunder coming from different directions during the peak.

Still waiting for a good night time storm as last one here was 2017, but at least it was something interesting to come home to after a hot week in Majorca.

Dazler97 · 24-07-2022 4:26pm

Screenshot_20220724_162503_net.fusio.meteireann.jpg

Fingers crossed we get decent ones

Meteorite58 · 31-07-2022 11:16pm

Will be watching the fronts tomorrow to see if any storms show up , maybe too messy a profile but some of the parameters are good for convection to form and some chance of a few storms breaking out coming in from the Atlantic , also in the early hours of Tuesday morning might be some interest. Not huge confidence with this but with a high theta W plume and high Dp's and good levels of shear some bit of activity might occur.

Meteorite58 · 01-08-2022 11:26am

No mention in the forecasts of any thunderstorm activity, Convective Weather not giving much chance either.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

Day 1 Convective Outlook: Mon 01

LOWSLGTMDTHIGHSVRWhat do these risk levels mean?

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 Aug 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 Aug 2022

ISSUED 06:10 UTC Mon 01 Aug 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Once again a humid airmass will extend across the British Isles through this forecast period as a frontal system migrates northeastwards. Forecast profiles reveal some weak embedded instability at times, encouraging some heavy, showery bursts of rain. The risk of lightning in any one location is considered quite low, but non-zero, given both the shallow nature of convection and/or rather moist profiles.

lolie · 01-08-2022 9:59pm

Anyone with the channel Quest Red this might be a decent watch now at 10pm tonight.

In 2016 the world's largest epidemic thunderstorm asthma event hits Melbourne. Within an hour, thousands of calls to emergency services start flooding in.

Screenshot_20220801_215158_com.android.chrome_edit_28225622377463.jpg

BringBackMick · 01-08-2022 10:19pm

Blah

Gaoth Laidir · 01-08-2022 10:32pm

When you see "more than ten Australians died" you know they're already into exaggeration and the program will most likely be Daily-Mail-esque. Was it actually more than ten or was it just ten but you want to exaggerate it for effect? Any time I see this "more than" on a simple number like that alarm bells ring. Just say "ten".

Rougies · 01-08-2022 11:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119417108#Comment_119417108

It has to be 11 really. More than ten, not quite "at least a dozen". 13 would get "over a dozen" 24 would get "dozens", 40 would get "scores" etc etc..

Dank Janniels · 02-08-2022 4:38am

Loud rumble in East Galway around 04:20 (!). Met Eireann and netweather show a strike near MountBellew. Also some sparks showing up earlier around Ballyhaunis and Ballaghderren

Storm 10 · 02-08-2022 5:20am

Thunder and lightning in Galway City

Gremlinertia · 02-08-2022 5:23am

Galway city east, large flash and thunder straight after

robclay26 · 02-08-2022 6:38am

Thunder near Delvin Westmeath

Meteorite58 · 02-08-2022 7:37pm

A fair bit of lightning overnight after all .

Didn't hear any thunder here near Tralee but some big showers.

Meteorite58 · 02-08-2022 7:46pm

Last night not as bad as Alberta.....

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1554522039842734081?s=20&t=haH1-ZSgEO8790-iBqG2wQ

https://twitter.com/MattBear3135/status/1554322644006105090?s=20&t=haH1-ZSgEO8790-iBqG2wQ

Storm 10 · 02-08-2022 9:06pm

During the Thunder last night in Galway there was one loud bang followed by bang bang bang it was not the normal loud clap and long rumble, anyone know what would cause that kind of thunder

Gaoth Laidir · 02-08-2022 9:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119421167#Comment_119421167

Probably elevated lightning, so some of the sound frequencies got filtered out on their way to you.

Storm 10 · 02-08-2022 9:17pm

Thanks for that Gaoth Laidir I never heard that before it was a long bang bang all the way until it stopped, one other thing for you that was strange there was one flash of lightning that lit up but slowly died away not the instant flash we are used to

Gaoth Laidir · 03-08-2022 1:46pm

A large CB incus has sprung up off to my northeast here in northern Sardinia and is spreading this way. Producing lots of lightning and heavy localised rain, the first rain in 6 weeks.

A couple of thousand J/kg of SBCAPE and complex terrain and seabreeze combination.

highdef · 03-08-2022 2:46pm

Oh I do hope you're getting a nice timelapse of that as it approaches!!!!

Gaoth Laidir · 03-08-2022 3:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119424044#Comment_119424044

Didn't get a time-lapse but the shear was impressive. The anvil made the 70-km trip to here in around 20 minutes. The radar shows rain falling here but there was none and I didn't even see any virga.

highdef · 03-08-2022 5:40pm

The satellite animation alone is impressive!!!! I did have a look at lightning maps after I had read your post and I could see that the activity was already waning. I'm guessing your either in the Sassari of Alghero areas?

Gaoth Laidir · 03-08-2022 5:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119424789#Comment_119424789

Alghero.

It's sunny again this evening and pretty humid. WBT is back up to 26 C.

littlecopilot · 05-08-2022 4:45pm

Thunderstorm at the moment on Barcelona live webcam

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/espana/cataluna/barcelona/playa-sant-sebastia.html

aidanodr · 05-08-2022 4:59pm

Meanwhile in Washington, right in front of the White house

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1555546099703857152

Gaoth Laidir · 05-08-2022 5:35pm

And it just proves that lightning doesn't "always hit the highest object".

Tickityboo · 05-08-2022 5:50pm

Delete

highdef · 05-08-2022 6:00pm

Awwww, would have loved to have heard the thunder from that :-(

Unfortunately, 2 people were killed by that strike and another 2 were seriously injured.

Gaoth Laidir · 05-08-2022 6:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119433829#Comment_119433829

The lunchtime Barcelona sounding showed SBCAPE of 7300 J/kg, which is way too high due to it reading an incorrect surface dewpoint of 31 °C. Surface stations at the time were reporting dp of 23-24 °C. Using that in the sounding would still give a relatively high SBCAPE of around 4000-5000 J/kg and MLCAPE of around 3000-4000 J/kg. Still juicy.

Oneiric 3 · 05-08-2022 7:17pm

Meteorologist Andrew Pichard captured these back end mammatus clouds the other day in Illinois. Very likely from the same system that brought those big storms to the east coast yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etRPbLX803E

Say my name · 07-08-2022 2:33pm

Next weekend is looking promising from a thunderstorm point of view.

Early doors but it's no harm having a bit of hope. 😅

typhoony · 10-08-2022 7:01pm

Early August is best time of year for thundery breakdowns, hopefully it kicks off on the west coast early next week

Chris_5339762 · 10-08-2022 9:17pm

I have my doubts... unless the moisture comes during the day, it just won't be anything like warm enough at night to generate sparks.

Meteorite58 · 11-08-2022 8:26am

Going by the consistency of the models Sunday looking like a strong possibility of widespread thunderstorms with heavy downpours I reckon.

Saturday a chance of s few also and next Monday showing up as a potentially active day also.

bad2thebone · 11-08-2022 9:23am

It would be epic watching it rolling in from a high part of the Burren near Fanore or Doolin across Galway bay looking from South West and the middle say the Arran Islands up towards North West, I'd say if it was going to be a show, it would be a rare occasion.

But worth the drive in the evening time if you're not far from there.

typhoony · 11-08-2022 10:36am

Sunday evening is looking more and more interesting, Limerick/Clare/Galway/Roscommon/Westmeath with Cape values above 1000 in the midlands

typhoony · 11-08-2022 10:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457395#Comment_119457395

Not sure it's a rolling in off the coast type of thundery outbreak, more inland heat and instability generated storms

bad2thebone · 11-08-2022 2:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457766#Comment_119457766

So it'll spark off inland, will the wet weather be coming from the Atlantic or Europe?

Danno · 11-08-2022 4:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119459235#Comment_119459235

It won't be "coming from" anywhere really, the heat rising off the land will cause cloud to build overhead, especially near higher ground and these form into showers, then thunderstorms.