Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733819#Comment_121733819

I don't know much about the SF case, but suffice to say, she won't be getting the same abuse.

Well we are off to a good start here. Without any facts we have one poster exaggerating and making stuff up in order to make the claim look 'dodgy and another poster backing him up.

We know or knew at the time that the furore over M. Bailey was started when it emerged that she had run a personal best 10k race 3 weeks after her fall when she had signed an affidavit that claimed she hadn't been able to run for 3 months. That was bogus. She had to withdraw the claim as a result.

There are no similarities to the SF case.. There are no 'facts' as suggested that make the claim dodgy.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121733819#Comment_121733819

It is clear evidence of the different approach to Sinn Fein. Journalists are afraid of bringing attention to this case as they are likely to be faced with a SLAPPs case like Gerry Kelly's.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121734717#Comment_121734717

If they are making stuff up about it then they deserve to be sued. Bailey sued a news group after all over some of their reporting.

Media outlets reported this story at the time (can be found with a search) including the Belfast Telegraph, The Indo, The Mail, Impartial Reporter, Fermanagh Herald. etc

You'd be forgiven for thinking this was hidden or brushed under a carpet, or that there was something new to report or that the Tele have a gotcha. They don't, nor have they anything new to report. For some curious reason they think this is relevant again.

You'd have to wonder why. Or maybe you wouldn't.

Bobson Dugnutt

Another disastrous opinion poll for SF. Mary Lou must be a dead woman walking ( if you’ll pardon the pun) at this stage. The knives must be out for her.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737729#Comment_121737729

Who would replace her? Permanent outrage Pearce?

Slim pickings on SF so it’s stick with Mary Lou for them

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121734961#Comment_121734961

So your response is the media shouldn’t report on it and something “curious” about them running the story

Cant beat Sinn Fein supporters wanting to shut down the media when it’s a bad news story for Sinn Fein

As I said, no credibility, if it was another party you would be outraged and accused the media of hiding the details

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737759#Comment_121737759

Asking a question Clo.

Why resurrect this story?

I'd get it, if there is new information, but there isn't.

I'd get it if she was just entering politics for the first time, she isn't.

There's a lot of talk about 'rocket science' on here and I don't think you have to be one to answer the question, 'why would an avowed Unionist newspaper be resurrecting this story again?

Media is free to report anything it wants and I am free to evaluate their reasons...you are too.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737729#Comment_121737729

SF need to stem the flow, no doubt about that.

If the vote was tomorrow it would strengthen FF's hand in government negotiations which may attract them even more to a SF FF coalition. Not enough of a difference between FF or FG numbers to change the predicament for them choosing that option again IMO

mikep

It'll be interesting to see how the next poll goes as Mary Lou has stated on Sky this morning that she "firmly" believes that the reunification referendums will take place in this decade

This means that it will have to be in the program for government should SF get the numbers required in the next general election.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737896#Comment_121737896

Or...it could leave FF and FG emboldened into sticking together, especially if the democratic result gives them and the greens a return to Office

You'd have to think pirouette time for Sinn Féin is running out

Only 11 months to recover what one poll has as big as an 11 point loss and their definite downward momentum now across all polls

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738089#Comment_121738089

Polling doesn't change the dynamic between FF and FG. It won't mean much to those disgruntled/unhappy within either party.

Still the same issues there to be resolved.

A stronger FF will make a coalition with SF more rather than less attractive IMO

zell12

I think the Average house prices in Dublin should fall to 'the €300,000 mark' comment is striking fear into ~66% homeowners nationally. That one wants to ensure my (primary asset) wealth falls in value, why would I vote for that option?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738186#Comment_121738186

I'd say you're underestimating the lack of grá within FF grassroots for Sinn Féin vs the lack of grassroots Grá for FG but that's an understandable, if misappropriated, confidence given who your preferred party is

The topic of the thread gets lost sometimes in the argey bargey between current affairs refugee posters here but the following from the Irish Times poll is in my opinion Stark for Sinn Féins government chances

"Satisfaction with the Government is also up by three points to 35 per cent. The approval rating for all the Coalition leaders also rises –Michael Martin by three points to 44 per cent, Leo Varadkar by one to 40 per cent, and  Eamon Ryan by two to 20 per cent. But satisfaction with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald falls by four points to 38 per cent, her lowest level in the series since before the last election."

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738265#Comment_121738265

I understand FF have little grá for any other party. But in my experience the dislike of FG beats the dislike of any other party tbh.

The primary motivation for any FF party members I know is to be distinct from FG...not SF or Lab or Soc Dems.

acceletor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737896#Comment_121737896

Curious, how would you suggest they stem the flow?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738313#Comment_121738313

That's actually nonsense

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738320#Comment_121738320

Polls are only putative support, not actual support.

SF are still well ahead of their actual support in a GE.

My advice would be, if this is a fall in putative support due to anti-immigration votes switching to independents, then let it go. Who wants to be chasing that vote?

Keep to their core issues.

I think, as I said before that the penny will drop with the electorate who have issue with how immigration (not those anti it) is being handled that it isn't caused by the opposition parties but by the government parties.

I think if nothing improves on the immigration front that might cost the government parties 3 to 4% points eventually. I see and sense a lot of dis-satisfaction out there and it isn't just in SF voting ranks.

All to play for.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738374#Comment_121738374

That's a retort an After Hours refugee would be proud of. 😉

Any particular reason it is 'nonsense'?

It is not exactly a novel observation:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/biggest-challenges-facing-fianna-fail-and-fine-gael-is-setting-themselves-apart-experts/39319625.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40694837.html

pureza

I see another trend here

Polls are less important when they're no good for your party

Dialing back a few months,they were the greatest thing since sliced bread for Francie 😁 cited right left and centre where helpful for their importance

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738449#Comment_121738449

Polls are less important when they're no good for your party

Nope, never said that. I don't disappear for a few days when a bad poll comes out.

Polls are good as indicators at a given time. But they are never the same as a GE when actual votes are cast.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738186#Comment_121738186

But isn't this the issue for SF?

It will mean, just replacing FG with SF, with FF still in their Mercs. Perhaps they replace the Greens with the SDs if they need the numbers, but still, the whole idea behind voting for SF was to get a government that didn't have FG or FF, a new change,etc...

Now, that option is put to bed. Many many SF voters will not be happy to vote for SF on election day, only to wake up the next morning to see FF still in power.

That is why the more support SF shed, the more they may likely shed as this reality dawns on them.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738208#Comment_121738208

I think while well-meaning, the comment poked the bear that is middle Ireland.

The figure mentioned was also pulled from her arse. It was not come up by any metric, study or quantification.

Articles after showed us how difficult it was to build a house in Dublin for anything near that amount.

Thus she came across as childlike and naive.

Not good if you want SF to run the country.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738418#Comment_121738418

I think, as I said before that the penny will drop with the electorate who have issue with how immigration (not those anti it) is being handled that it isn't caused by the opposition parties but by the government parties.

That is all well and good, but SF has no policy differences on how they would handle immigration, and in fact, they have been all at sea on the issue, given that they cannot even come up with their policy on the issue, rather will prefer to stay silent on the issue and wait for the government first.

The electorate knows what SF are up to here, and will see a party scared to lead and scared to move. So why vote for them?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739098#Comment_121739098

I think only the naïve believe that 'change' will come in a single watershed moment.

Change will come in stages. Massive change has happened already. FF and FG having to tacitly merge to retain power is huge.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738447#Comment_121738447

Those articles are from 3 and 4 years ago.

Maybe that is the problem with SF.

They still think it's 2020 and 2021 are doing politics from that time.

We have seen the electorate move, the government move and the world move, but SF are still stuck in its heyday where shouting and roaring at the government gave them a boost in the polls.

They are struggling now in this new world, where they are the front runners and people are looking to them for leadership. In fact struggling is being kind.

In the meantime, FG, FF and the Greens are getting on with it. They are getting some things wrong, some things right, but they are doing a job at least.

It would be to no one's surprise the FF and FG run a pseudo-joint ticket next time out.

SF are stuck in no mans land.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738208#Comment_121738208

There is no doubt that was a major faux-pas by MLMD. At a time when we have the highest number of first-time buyers in the history of the state, she comes out with that. Unbelievable misstep.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739187#Comment_121739187

And still we see FF struggle to stay above 20%.

Same as 3 or 4 years ago.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739169#Comment_121739169

Really?

You must have missed all those "The Peoples Taoiseach" videos SF made, and the pontification from high that SF were going into a left-wing government free from the 'power-swap' of FF/FG...

The SF crew here and on Social media were very excited by this new political dawn not so long ago.

Another 'Gilmore for Taoiseach' moment perhaps.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739201#Comment_121739201

Exactly, that is their core vote.

Same as FG.

Both will return approx 20% next time out, as in FF and FG will get approx 40% of the vote next time out, which considering that FG have been in power since 2011 and FF since 2020, with a C&S since 2016 is kind of extraordinary.

We all know that the SF core vote is much lower, and their existing support is built on marshmallows, hence why they are losing it so quickly.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739212#Comment_121739212

It has already been pointed out elsewhere how problematic this poll is for Sinn Fein. MLMD for years was the most popular leader, now she is third. The Mary-Lou for Taoiseach campaign may need a rethink, but if they are not saying that, are they not looking for government.

SF now have the problem that FG had for the two decade from the mid-80s to 2007. Things are going well enough for people not to want change, not going perfectly, but well enough. To change that perception, you need really good, really sharp ideas that will clearly benefit the majority of the population. FG didn't have those in the early 2000s, SF don't have them now. What is worse is that if you get them wrong, you can suffer badly - remember the Spring tide, that could be the SDs taking seats from SF at the next election.