Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739212#Comment_121739212

MLMD's distinct position was that she preferred a government without the two FF or FG, but that she would talk to anyone, last time out and now.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739242#Comment_121739242

There is a definate sea change of opinion out there when it comes to SF.

You can see it online especially.

A few years ago, the pro-SF presence was everywhere.

Now, SF are lumped into the same bracket as the government.

https://twitter.com/john_mcguirk/status/1755544250047938724?s=20

The core voters of FF and FG would be much more benign when it comes to immigration in the main. But SF voters would be much more right-wing, working class and nationalistic. These voters want SF to do something about it, but SF is saying nothing, so that silence is seen as support for the status quo. Hence those people find somewhere else to go.

Bobson Dugnutt

Mary Lou really needs to do something about some of the rabid SF supporters online. They are actively damaging the party especially on Twitter.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739270#Comment_121739270

The core voters of FF and FG would be much more benign when it comes to immigration in the main.

For how long? And the core in both is getting ever smaller. How many points can they afford to drop over it if they cannot get control.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739253#Comment_121739253

Need to talk to SF members Francie.

This was last years Ard Fheis

https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-ard-fheis-analysis-6220512-Nov2023/

It does feel like we’re going to win next time. It looks like there’s going to be change and it looks like we’re not going to need Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.

This was a point also made by the party’s finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty who told members in his speech that the focus has to be about electing enough Sinn Féin TDs to form a government without Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil after the next general election.

After the next election, Sinn Féin “will have the power”, he said. 

“It will be the biggest bloc, we’d have most of the voters on our side,” he added.

There is some expectation that after the next general election a rainbow coalition could be formed, with some predicting a left-leaning government with Sinn Féin at the helm.

The party speakers hammered home this message: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had been in power for too long, that it was time for change, and Sinn Féin is ready to lead. 

In her closing speech, McDonald said: 

“A new government without Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for the first time in a hundred years. Just imagine that. That would be the very best outcome from the General Election.”

Shame that they blew it by being incompetent.

rowantree18

The problem is that there's an interesting disconnect between what SF says it stands for and the type of voter they actually attract. As well as the fact that SF itself is an anomaly - a left wing, socialist yet nationalist party.

A lot of the voters are left wing in a wanting "one for everybody in the audience " kind of way, but nationalist and right wing in an "as long as it's me and mine getting the one for everybody in the audience "......

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739310#Comment_121739310

The next GE is mere months away now. Those 20% for both FF and FG will vote accordingly.

It's no harm that FG don't go into government next time out tbh, maybe they need a refresh, some new blood and ideas. It's the way things go.

But SF haemorrhaging support when they have never hard their arse in a ministerial merc, is quite concerning, don't you think?

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739201#Comment_121739201

Latest polling puts the 3 parties of Government collectively somewhere in the mid 40's depending on which poll you are looking at.

That is a significant improvement on where they were collectively 9-12 months ago.

Historically , both FG and FF tend to get a higher % of seats than their polling numbers due to the nature of transfer and vote management etc. so they are absolutely in the ball game to retain power as it stands right now.

I doubt any of them are looking at anyone other than each other right now in terms of partnership.

hotmail.com

The polls confirm the trend of a large drop in support for Sinn Fein.

Immigration and their rubbish on the 300 grand house has exposed their soft support.

What's clear from these polls is that we're going to have another scattered Dail with loads of parties and loads of independents and months of political talks with parties who are basically the same.

FrancieBrady

 

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739336#Comment_121739336

Those 20% for both FF and FG will vote accordingly.

On such arrogance have many fallen.

SF are haemorrhaging putative support, this poll has them still 4% points up on GE performance.

Long long way to go until we see what their actual support is.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739369#Comment_121739369

Maybe Quin Dub, maybe.

But I'm a firm believer from experience that there is many a slip betwixt cup and lip.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739408#Comment_121739408

Of course , anything could happen to expand or collapse any groups support.

However as a snapshot of where things stand right here right now , SF would not be part of the next Government discussions as the current government would have a decent shot of being returned as is or perhaps needing the support of a few like minded Independents.

That is a big shift in the landscape from a few months ago..

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739480#Comment_121739480

However as a snapshot of where things stand right here right now 

Yes, I agree, right now, being the operative phrase.

You assume a number of things, that all is well in both FG FF re: each other.

And that the position 'right now' maintains.

Even if an election were called right now, you could see a huge shift during the campaign.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739514#Comment_121739514

Again , of course.

However we can only discuss the information to hand as they are the only facts available, and the facts as they are right now show that SF are in trouble and have gone from having a very strong chance of being in Government and even potentially having full control (and not the "power-sharing" agreement that FF/FG have) to not being involved at all in the formation of the next Government.

Again - everything could change in an instant so further obfuscation and deflection stating that is unnecessary , but that does not for a moment alter todays reality.

SF are in trouble , trouble that has been accelerating in the last month or two and they need to work out why it's happening and how to stop it if they want to get back to being a realistic option for Government.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739659#Comment_121739659

Fair enough...for now.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121739480#Comment_121739480

Correct, from the talk of

1. "SF will get an over all majority if we keep this up"

to

2. "MLMD, the peoples Taoiseach.."

to

3. "Well I guess we can go into power with FF.."

to

4. "Another stint in opposition it is then..."

We are somewhere between 3 and 4 at the moment.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740084#Comment_121740084

The trend is your friend, as the saying goes.

Sinn Fein have run out of ideas. Harder on immigration, they lose votes to the Social Democrats and the government parties. Softer on immigration, they lose votes to the independents.

Even their current policies leave them wide open to confusion. On the one hand MLMD is calling on the government to support South Africa against Israel in the ICJ, shout at Biden on St. Patrick's Day and expel the Israeli ambassador, all on behalf of the Palestinians, but next week, if Roderic O'Gorman sends 150 young male Palestinian refugees to Ballina, MLMD will be telling all and sundry there wasn't enough consultation and it is not a suitable location.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740185#Comment_121740185

That's the gas thing. A lot of hardcore SF supporters are pro palestine but anti refugee, so wouldnt take them here anyway

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740275#Comment_121740275

True, but let's be honest about this. SF supporters and that type of voter, who SF attract are not the brightest sparks to begin with.

FrancieBrady

To listen to some of the triumphalism here you would be forgiven for thinking SF were down to 16 or 17%.

They are on 28%

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740283#Comment_121740283

It's probably controversial to say that in these days of cancel culture, but TBH I agree 110% with all of that.

Bobson Dugnutt

What in the name of jaysus is going on here? Looks like Palestinian people being thrown out of a SF gathering. Wrong sort of Palestinian or something?

Weird. Some tough looking units in the audience as well

https://twitter.com/SocialRightsIRL/status/1755397983862923367

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740329#Comment_121740329

Bit of a slap in the face for those claiming the Shinners are all operating to the Army Council orders or else.

Couple of hundred attending a meeting applauding the protesters as they leave.

Should they not be towing the party line in fear? 😁

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740360#Comment_121740360

That's the message you took from that clip????

Wow...

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740360#Comment_121740360

That looks like someone disrupting the meeting without being on the agenda and being rightfully told where to go. Whether their cause was palestinian or israeli or bhutanese they would have gotten the same actions.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740397#Comment_121740397

Wow what?

I am fully aware of the conversation/argument going on within SF at the moment.

Some think that going is a good thing others want a boycott. Views range in levels of intensity.

That meeting shows me that the people there are comfortable with both views, prepared to sit and listen to the leadership and the Palestinian Ambassador (who supports the visit) while also seeing the other side, the protestors.

I didn't see any unnecessary force and the applause was genuine and good to see. The protestors seemed happy to leave having made their protest.

What did you see?

mikethecop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740360#Comment_121740360

How so ? the army council have only the interests of the army council in mind, people would do well to remember that when they thin of sf as a democratic party.

dissenting voices will be silenced with force and intimidation whenever they are inconvenient

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740451#Comment_121740451

The protestors were challenging the leadership's decision. Do the audience look like they are in fear of the leadership when they applaud the protest? Do you think any of them are intimidated into silence?

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740435#Comment_121740435

There was a smattering of applause for boycott the Whitehouse but the vast majority was for them being removed.

That's what I saw anyway.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740556#Comment_121740556

How did you separate out what was for what?

No, doubt there was mixed opinion there, Which gives the lie to a hive mind, controlled party.

Also there was no heavy handed removal, just protestors ushered out to allow the meeting continue which happens everywhere.