Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

FrancieBrady

Yes…here is the spread of ministers as a result of their electoral performances

First Minister Michelle O'Neill Sinn Féin 2024–present

Deputy First Minister	Emma Little-Pengelly		DUP	2024–present

Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs	Andrew Muir		Alliance	2024–present
Communities	Gordon Lyons		DUP	2024–present
Economy	Conor Murphy		Sinn Féin	2024–present
Education	Paul Givan		DUP	2024–present
Finance	Caoimhe Archibald		Sinn Féin	2024–present
Health	Robin Swann		UUP	2024
Infrastructure	John O'Dowd		Sinn Féin	2024–present
Justice	Naomi Long		Alliance	2024-Present

ELM327

SF: It's time for CHAAAANGE
Also SF: Yeah we're going to go in with FF.

The electorate: Yeah, thanks but no thanks.

Result: In the current polling for local elections independents are topping the polls.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217873#Comment_122217873

Independents who will absolutely do a deal with FF/FG if they get the option to do so.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217889#Comment_122217889

Well, this is the local elections. But imagining it's for the GE too.. of course, as they should do. (I'm anti SF in government under any circumstances)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217873#Comment_122217873

Change is already happening as a result of SF's rise.
I certainly didn't think I would see the FF FG vote share fall so low (from 86% to just over 40%) that they'd have to coalesce to stay in power. That is a seismic change already in the body politic.

The rise of 'Independents' is usually a temporary reaction to a temporary issue. I don't think it will last tbh, because it will be a very rag tag assembly of independents and the electorate who elect them will likely end up frustrated.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217919#Comment_122217919

So if change is already happening why do we need to vote SF for change?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217955#Comment_122217955

??
Not having either FF or FG as lead parties in a coalition would be another significant change in Irish politics.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217965#Comment_122217965

But I thought change already happened?

Would enabling an FF-SF government count as more change? If I were (and I'm not) an SF supporter I don't think an FF-SF government is change. SF are not likely to get in on their own. What next?

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217779#Comment_122217779

A simple question to ponder, when DUP and SF were directly negotiating with Blair in 2006, to the exclusion of other parties at the time, why did the change to rules emerge? SF and DUP were the only ones in the room when the 'power swap pact' was decided.

The content cited is relevant even if you don't wish to afford any credibility just because it was from an Alliance party member. That, ironically, is more evidence of the power-swap mentality in itself.

Bobson Dugnutt

SF are fúcked. They just don’t realise it yet. Huge divergence between the 26 and 6 county parties. The old Belfast beards and their “advisers” haven’t a clue about what Pat and Patricia in Limerick think and want.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218004#Comment_122218004

You said it yourself here: Blair was also in the room, any 'agreement' was rubberstamped by Britain and Ireland and the other parties.
I.E. The evolution of the situation is more complex than the typical FG FF blame both sides equally simplification.

I agree that reform of the system is needed btw, but we are where we are for more complex reasons than you outline. Perfection was never going to be reached immediately. There is still some way to go.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218024#Comment_122218024

Blair was there to give them what they wanted to get the thing going again. They wanted a power swap setup to suit themselves. Blair gave it to them. Its pretty obvious. It needs to be changed so that NI and the rest of us can move on from the dinosaurs in SF and DUP

Bobson Dugnutt

A very sour and prickly Mary Lou on the radio just now. Can’t deal with any sort of robust questioning. Very shrill and condescending as well.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218082#Comment_122218082

How the hell an agreement to equal sharing of power is a 'swap' defeats me.
I'll leave you at it.
You want to blame specific parties for the same reason Cushnahan did, have at it.

pureza

I'd say sinn Féin will top the poll in many constituencies and win control of many councils.

At least 4 MEP's aswell maybe 5.

ednwireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218119#Comment_122218119

caught the end not impressed at all.

"if I had know you were going to ask me about our budget I would have brought the figures"

what did she expect !

as far as I remember a costed budget just means your ins and outs add up.

if your trying to change the income streams significantly it doesn't tell you if that will work.

mikep

I just caught the end of Mary Lou's interview with Claire Byrne..she finished it with a fatcat, Galway tent load of waffle...

Another opportunity lost to explain how SF are going to make everything better...

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218171#Comment_122218171

Mary Lou will be suing her soon, how dare someone ask her questions

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217919#Comment_122217919

If FFG lead the next govt, would you still consider that SF have changed the political landscape?

The independents will only make up the numbers and will need to pin their coats to 2 of the big 3 parties in order to enter govt.

Unless there is a huge surge in the number of independents standing in the GE & that surge is accompanied by large groups of independents forming robust, political alliances (not likley at all), the independents will be a disjointed group of loners, clinging to a duo of either FFG or FFSF, in order to enter govt.

Maintaining the status quo with a FFG led govt is by far the most likley outcome.

FF have always been the king makers here. Neither SF or FG can govern without them this time around. That much has been clear for the past 2 or 3 years.

I'd say that to FF, the FG bed is much warmer, more familiar and far more inviting than the SF option.

So although i agree with you that there will be a loss of overall support for FFG from their peak, the end game is still the same in that those 2 parties will form the next govt.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218196#Comment_122218196

You 'just caught the end' but have decided it was a lost opportunity? 😁
She was very good on the reasons why the government have messed up on immigration and what the solutions or part of it is - communicating with the communities that are being asked to take these people in.

Refusing to go after the far right vote again or pander to it, which was good

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218219#Comment_122218219

If FFG lead the next govt, would you still consider that SF have changed the political landscape?

Of course, there is no going back for these two now, unless one of them decides to take a distinctly different direction. I still think that is possible.

Another FF/FG coalition would mean tacit merger tbh.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218169#Comment_122218169

They're running so many candidates anywhere they have a decent vote that they aren't going to top the polls in many, if any places.

In some cases, their excessive candidate load may lose them seats.

With rare exceptions, single party control of councils never happens here and in most cases, no party runs enough candidates to do so. This isn't England.

They could also be left with two MEPs

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218238#Comment_122218238

Or it would mean democracy rejected Sinn Féin again ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218260#Comment_122218260

'Again'?
They were the most popular party with the electorate last time out.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218167#Comment_122218167

It's ok that you don't comprehend, the nuance is not for everyone. But look again at the detail. Again, and finally, the agreement hatched by DUP and SF in 2006 was designed that both could drive toward monopolizing their own community's votes inside the mandatory coalition context. A deal with the devil for both. Blair pushed it through to get Stormont up and running. Like the Ribbentrop Molotov pact, it was deeply cynical but mutually beneficial and temporarily useful.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218290#Comment_122218290

By 2006 the fate of the SDLP as a moribund and shrinking party was long set in stone.

No one could change that, at election time it was SF who worked every door, after the election it was SF who worked every door. The SDLP would disappear till the next election.

They had no hunger for it and that is fatal in politics.

There was some chance with the potential merger with FF but Micheal Martin hates everything to do with the North, SDLP, SF etc. He has taken any hope of the SDLP recovering and they have throw.

If the SDLP had tried they would be in a position to lead.

Those who work hard win. Those who expect it to be given, starve.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218290#Comment_122218290

It is handy for certain political outlooks to put all issues in NI down at the door of two parties equally.

Par for the course.
As always the truth is more complex than that.

mikep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218228#Comment_122218228

Yes .I do.

If I was in charge of SF comms I would make sure all of them repeat ad nauseum the ways they are planning to implement their policies.

Facts, not waffle...

FFS the Galway tent is a relic of the past that many young voters won't even have heard of...

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218332#Comment_122218332

I think that 'many young voters' would have heard her on the issues that concern them, housing, discussion of which took up a good portion of the interview.

Maybe had you listened to 'all' of the interview? Just saying.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218332#Comment_122218332

Most of the posters in this thread still think it is the 1980s.

I suspect quite a few are 70 plus and still stuck in the past.