Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122461708#Comment_122461708

You've multiple posts too though in this thread expressing your own high confidence on polls staying the same for SF or even reaching 40% + and that opnion polls are generally a good guide,their trend is your friend etc

So are you the pot calling the kettle black arsè now or were you talking nonsense back then or have you changed your mind ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462128#Comment_122462128

You've multiple posts too though in this thread expressing your own high confidence on polls staying the same for SF or even reaching 40% +

Go on and post these 'multiple posts' about polling staying the same and I'd love to see the one where I predicted '40% with high confidence'. I do remember arguing that they could go higher in polling, even 40% (they had hit 37% at that stage) but I never confidently predicted they would stay the same.
No need to make stuff up.

Bobson Dugnutt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462039#Comment_122462039

They have very little talent on the front benches. I’d agree that he’s a spoofer, and seems like the sort of lad who would be better off in PBP. Then you’ve total hot air merchants like Doherty. All performative outrage and shouting to disguise the fact he has absolutely no grasp of detail.

The emperor has no clothes.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122457539#Comment_122457539

A man of the common people is Mr. O'Broin. He only takes the average wage as per SF policy (but of course doesn't confirm if that is gross or net, a great slip up by Liadh ni Riada several years ago).

And he wants everyone to have a free house.

I saw another side of him in Aniar restaurant in Galway a couple of years ago, dining out with Lynn Boylan at a top end restaurant and ordering the expensive wine. Nothing wrong with that of course but he was a far cry from the socialist he portrays himself to be.

FrancieBrady

A reasonable article outlining the challenges facing all parties and by extension, the electorate.

The Government will play up these ownership issues, though is vulnerable on its own record of affordable delivery. Ministers will reckon that voters are attached to the traditional cycle of buying a first home, selling it on at a profit to “trade up”, and seeing the value of the asset rise over time. Many may well be, but for others this route now looks unachievable.

This locked-out generation is a key election battleground: Sinn Féin will hope its demand for a reset in policy lands with this group, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will say the Government approach is delivering and Sinn Féin’s plan is undermining the basic concept of home ownership and the property ladder.

There are a lot of votes here to fight for – a squeezed middle of young buyers. The Housing Commission report estimated that, in round numbers, households earning €50,000-€100,000 cannot afford to buy in Dublin. In some parts of the city the income level required will be even higher. Those earning less than €50,000 are likely to have to rely on social housing.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/08/03/cliff-taylor-can-sinn-feins-housing-policy-deliver-for-a-squeezed-middle-of-young-buyers/

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462185#Comment_122462185

I'm not making it up (as you know)

Your words regarding the 40% were 'not at all unlikely'

Several more dissertations on how the trend is your friend etc in the polls

Heres one of the 2 posts in the first 10 pages

What puzzled me the most,more tgan your confidence in the 40%, is your confidence in polls being trusted then but not so much now ? Why ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462409#Comment_122462409

'high confidence' and multiple posts you claimed.
You made both claims up.

At 35/36% it was not 'unlikely' they could reach 40% at the time. Statement of fact.

Where have I expressed anything about 'trust' in polls.

Polls can go up and down, are you that politically naïve/inexperienced that you don't know that?

mattser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462409#Comment_122462409

Cant beat a good rumble

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462451#Comment_122462451

Yeh, shame this attempted one bombed.
It's 'unlikely' Pureza will own up to exaggeration but likely he/she'll keep digging.
To paraphrase the banking ad, 'polls' can go up and down so never go beyond 'likely' or 'unlikely' in your predictions and they almost never 'stay the same'.

Working class heroes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462544#Comment_122462544

it only bombed in your head.

Also, unfortunate use of the term “bombed”

Tut tut….

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462695#Comment_122462695

Gwan you and find 'multiple posts' and anywhere I claimed 'confidently' that polls would 'stay the same'?
That was the exaggeration and made up claims I called out.

Headshot

@FrancieBrady

What do you think SF is doing wrong at the moment and what should they do to improve?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462746#Comment_122462746

I agree with one media comment made somewhere yesterday, they are getting their messaging wrong. On houisng and cost of living. Also, those salivating about them turning to the far right and chasing that vote were allowed to be the loudest voices. MLMD needs to keep her 'blame the government for the mess not the migrants' messaging up.

I think SF will be working hard on the ground on this development - the deteriorating situation in the UK and NI. They need to show people what happens when you give succor to the far right. Much of the unrest there is after all being stoked by an irresponsible and opportunistic political party and it's leader. - Farage so it should be easy to do.
Credit where it is due here, despite being taunted by those who only care about maintaining the political status quo and by the far right itself, SF resisted chasing that vote. Where was that vote yesterday - up north allying with Loyalism and belligerent Unionism as others petrified about FG or FF losing power will do too.

I don't think that irony will be lost on SF's genuine working class vote who have maybe had their heads turned by the far right.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462447#Comment_122462447

Lad,I've more than that post for sure,I can put them up if you want,they show you with faith in opinion polls then which you have lost today

But you know they're there,you must do,you wrote them

Unless you've a team of writer's for you or something and you've given them some autonomy

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462934#Comment_122462934

Pureza…show me where 'I have lost faith' in opinion polls today?

Where did I do this? Have I denied them, questioned their authenticity?

They are what they are, and off their moment in time and can likely rise and fall and if you have any knowledge and experience you would know that any conversation about moments in time are taking place in that context.

Hence saying a party that was rising in the polls at a given time are quite likely to continue to do so is not the great gotcha you are fervently clinging to.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462544#Comment_122462544

Oh Really ?

Whats the definition of inevitable ?

You said and I quote "I see SF finishing as lead party,like pollsters the public and most media,It's inevitable at thiis stage'

Now put that in your pipe and smoke it

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462934#Comment_122462934

Unless you've a team of writer's for you or something and you've given them some autonomy

As for the pious bemoaner of tit for tatting in the Politics forum this ^^^ is a revelatory classic of hypocrisy.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462983#Comment_122462983

And polling at that time supported that inevitability.

What are FG and FF supporters saying now…the exact same thing, and as I said earlier, I agree with them on current numbers.. A FG/FF government on the strength of current polling (I.E. If those numbers happened in an election) is 'inevitable'.
Where is this 'loss of faith'/difference you are touting?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122462997#Comment_122462997

Greasy pole territory for you now boss

Greasy pole

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463002#Comment_122463002

See earlier post today.

Status quo will remain if those numbers hold into an election.

No change in my attitude to polls, no undermining of the poll, no 'loss of faith' in polls as ranted about by you.
On current figures FG/FF government is inevitable just as on 35/36% SF in government was inevitable.

What a greasy waste of a morning for you.

mattser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463002#Comment_122463002

Hoist by their own petard P 😉

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122461708#Comment_122461708

G'wan out of that, if SF had the sort of momentum Harris and Martin were giving their two parties right now, you'd be spontaneously ejaculating all over the place.

SF are in major bother, you know it, they know it, and Misery Mary Lou is a big part of it.

The other part of it (leaving aside desperate, scrambling, ill-thought and uncosted policies on housing and immigration) is that outside of the 6 or 7 senior TDs we always see bleating about something, the other 30 have spent the last four and a half years NOT DOING A FECKIN TAP!!!

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463024#Comment_122463024

Really ?

Upthread,the very post I replied to prompting our tete à tete,you taunted the previous posters that 'you remember FG at 36%' ie polls change

You further go on to say they go up and down and you should never go past likely when describing them…

I've shown you saying an outcome is inevitable

No qualification whatsoever in your statement then

Plenty now

Get up the yard with your aul nonsense

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463046#Comment_122463046

No vote coming from you then?😁

They have gone up in the poll. Just a point but it is a rise, so maybe something is starting to work.

What data or source are you getting your 'not a tap' from?
Is this said in denial of the existence of of TDs from all parties we never hear a word from? Is there some new onus on SF TD's to be front and centre? Bizarre rant tbh.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463055#Comment_122463055

They needed reminding that parties go up and down in the polls. No taunt, just a reminder that polls can change by giving a factual example.

I said 'inevitable' based on the current polling at the time, I also sad that the latest poll makes a FG/FF government inevitable if that is how the election pans out, that is wrong with that exactly,

That is showing faith in polls, not losing it.

Get up the yard indeed. 😁

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463084#Comment_122463084

Pity you didn't remind... yourself in 2022 then, or I wouldn't have had to point out the glaring inconsistency.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463121#Comment_122463121

What inconsistency?

You base your opinions on current polling fully aware that polling can change.

Just as I did in 2022 and this morning.

You were going to point out where I 'have lost faith in polling'. Stop hiding behind your preaching.

Bobeagleburger

Lads, your stamina is incredible 😂

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463077#Comment_122463077

Anecdotes from the ground campaigners of FF and FG ,especially in Munster and Connacht. Voters are feeding back some massive hostility on SF.

You are in a deep part of the river in Egypt friend. If I were Simon Harris I'd come back from the Dáil recess for about 3 seconds and announce a spin to the Park to seek a dissolution.

And then we'd all watch SF shyt the bed.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463448#Comment_122463448

So a lad with two pints data source. Ok.

I said earlier that on those poll numbers the status quo will remain if they follow in an actual election.

Where is the denial or self delusion?

Bizarre bit of ranting here today.