Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122463024#Comment_122463024

I don't think you understand the meaning of the word "inevitable". Either that or you are trying to bluff your way out of a hole that you are still digging.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122467121#Comment_122467121

Where did I say it was ‘not inevitable’? We weren’t discussing the election at that point.

All I said was ‘polls can change’ between now and an election and then I said if those numbers occurred in a GE tge ‘status quo would remain’.
Your ‘loss of faith’ allegation was a nasty little attempt to try and imply I was refusing to believe the polls .

Nasty and sad.

Now that is me definitely done with this.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122467160#Comment_122467160

You posted in this thread inconsistently saying one thing when it suited you and something different another

All I did was question that which is legitimate in a debate

At no point did I resort to name calling

Everything is documented

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122467160#Comment_122467160

If the 'nationalists' who were ex shinners keep it up they'll have no support left. The rise of the right in ireland might not last very long

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486072#Comment_122486072

There is no rise of the right in Ireland,its just anti immigrant sentiment

Rightwingism contains an economic philosophy anathema to most of the people protesting immigrants taking their housing,their social welfare money and doing their jobs for cash

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486072#Comment_122486072

There is an extremely worrying and craw thumping self satisfied complacency about the rise of the right here. Based on the results of one election basically.

The salivating about SF turning to the right was nauseating here. Some posters would have been delighted to see it just to prove their suspicions and without any regard for how dangerous it would be for a party to be stoking it or harnessing it to gain power.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486590#Comment_122486590

You make the error again of conflating controling borders with being right wing,North Korea and China have some of the best border controls in the world,are they right wing ?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486696#Comment_122486696

You make a very good point, the correct label for those who protest against immigration is not right-wing, but exclusionary nationalism, as their position on economic issues is meaningless.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486696#Comment_122486696

You'll find the same people hounding libraries and agitating on social issues.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494141#Comment_122494141

I doubt the anti immigrant aggitators give a toss whether you are described as they or them tbh.It's a peculiar dillema for SF's Republican base that some of their number is anti immigration and not right wing

Its a new niche lost to all parties now,a vote scattered to the four winds away from SF as the immigration question isn't going away before the next election

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494492#Comment_122494492

Seems clear to me that ‘the ‘anti immigrant’ vote can go anywhere.
FG’s rise in popularity might be down to their hardening attitudes, remains to be seen.
Contrary to popular belief here I have no insights or connection to SF but we keep getting told of dilemmas and internal chaos and leadership crisises with no outward discernible signs of it. I’ll take your talk of it with a pinch of salt. Currently it seems to be more wishful thinking than anything tangible.

pureza

It's analysis

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494721#Comment_122494721

Yeh, I’m calling out this analysis by asking for tangible signs.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494753#Comment_122494753

That'd be too selective a calling out

Something has happened to alienate a lot of SF voters ,the main opposition party after 13 years of government,it seems illogical socialist leaning voters suddenly become far right of centre so isn't it logical tgat it's the immigration issue in the normally SF voters fertile ground?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494826#Comment_122494826

Potential voters. Opinion polls are not ‘votes’.
SF still have the majority of their actual vote in the last GE within the margin for error.
Seems to me a potential vote attached themselves to SF and have not found a home there and have gone elsewhere. Who knows, some of them may account for the rise in FG and FF support as they harden their attitude to immigration.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494864#Comment_122494864

Left wing voters don't become centre right voters unless maybe they're happy with the economy and their lot,are you suggesting some SF voters are heading that way ? 😱

Isn't the situation an abject failure though for an opposition party that essentially wants voters to think government for the last 13 years has been the worst ever ? To be at or below the level they'd got at the start of the current government,at the end of it,something seriously wrong there ? Or Something right,pardon the unintentional pun, about that government ?

I'm a people watcher and I can tell you,SF supporters in my local area on the Sunday after the locals and EU's looked palpably down in the dumps,shell shocked

Theres 5 maybe 6 months to go

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495045#Comment_122495045

Look, if you are going to confuse voters with potential voters, work away.
Done with the assumptions.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495136#Comment_122495136

Every voter is a potential voter

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495367#Comment_122495367

No, everyone who gives an opinion to pollsters is a potential voter. You have them and others who will have an opinion today that might be different tomorrow.

Some of those who gave opinions have switched who they say they will vote for.

All the major parties have more less the same support they had when an actual vote was carried out.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494864#Comment_122494864

I think you are correct that FGs bounce is likley to do with their slightly stronger stance on asylum migration, since LV left and Harris took the helm.

The clearing of the tents and reducing benefits probably moved a lot of former FG voters back towards FG.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495380#Comment_122495380

That's monumentally not the case,a vote is only potential untill it's cast,it needs to be won

Votes that never change party exist (core vote over time) but are irrelevant to changing a government because obviously if they weren't in the never change category,they'd either make a change of government harder or easier

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495395#Comment_122495395

I think FG's & the governments bounce has more to do with looking decicsive on issues rather than one issue,as theres one thing voters hate is indecision isn't it

Varadkar was a master at can kicking

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495429#Comment_122495429

So how many votes have any of them ‘won’ in a GE?

blanch152

Amazing the way that opinion polls have lost credibility, and how inconsequential local and European elections are.

Quite a tune change around here.

The reality, which SF and their supporters need to acknowledge is that their party is in trouble. I put this up in another thread, when it should have gone here instead.

There are two issues, firstly, why Sinn Fein is failing to attract additional voters, and secondly, why it is losing those who voted for it the last time. There are a number of overlapping issues and problems that they need to address.

The leadership question: MLMD is a tired leader, lacking in energy, lacking in personality. A negative person, suited for a particular time, which has now come and gone. MM has grown into leadership as Taoiseach while FG, Greens, SDs and Labour have all changed leaders since the last election. The opportunity to change has probably come and gone, but it was an opportunity missed.

Populism in the post-Covid era: In the 2020 general election, there was a lot of dissatisfaction and the electorate were angry. This resulted in SF getting a huge boost. Since then, we have had Covid, one of the consequences was a shift in the electorate's understanding. Previously, the government would always be blamed for everything. Covid helped people realise that sometimes the government could do nothing about the circumstances that the country found itself in. The Ukraine crisis reinforced this view, and the electorate has shifted away from populist slogans to asking who is most competent to resolve issues. Sinn Fein falls short here as the next two issues demonstrate as it has little to offer beyond populist slogans.

Weak Front Bench: SF's front bench is weak. Other than Pearse Doherty and Eoin O'Broin, the rest have no public persona. Even then, those two are not the most engaging, giving off the impression of angry teenage boys rather than the gravitas of future Ministers. Others fail to impress, lacking command of their brief or appearing to be too whingy. The problem is on the backbenches are a heap of idiots who can't be let anywhere near a microphone or a TV camera. There is no sense that SF have competent people ready to take on roles in government.

Policy: If the country is looking for solutions, and your front bench is weak, one area you could try and compensate is by producing robust costed policies. The recent 8-page policy on immigration was laughable, barely distinct from the government's approach, and lacking in details on costs and practicalities. How could lengthy consultation with locals be balanced with the urgency of the response needed? How much would need to be spent on building accommodation for migrants, and why should this be done instead of building for Irish people? MLMD flapped around on even the most basic questions when interviewed. As for the €300k house, there isn't a person in Ireland who believes that to be realistic. Having had 4.5 years since the last election, the Sinn Fein preparedness for government is shockingly poor. It seems that they believed that continuing to rant for the sake of ranting would be sufficient to propel them into government. They have been fighting the last election, not the next one.

Foreign Policy: This is a big problem. Declan Kearney cosying up again to one of Putin's lackeys is the sort of indiscretion we don't see from the major parties. It smells of naivety, of stupidy, of carelessness. Ireland has interests. We must remain close to the West, to protect FDI, to protect the livelihoods of Irish citizens. Getting in bed with Putin is possibly the worst possible thing to do. SF won't be trusted to hold the role of Foreign Minister.

PIRA Legacy: There are those, like myself, who will never be able to vote for Sinn Fein because of the PIRA legacy. However, beyond that, there are two things that are putting other people off voting for Sinn Fein. Firstly, there is the continued commemorations to honour and celebrate murderers and rapists who committed atrocities in living memory, the repeated failure to apologise properly for what the PIRA did, the failure to come clean on how SF is actually run and financed. Secondly, there is the worry out there about whether SF can be trusted to hold the Defence and Justice Ministries. In particular, unresolved allegations of garda collaboration with the PIRA, the need for SF members to consult the party before co-operating with the gardai, and the feelings within the garda ranks about the killing of their colleagues by the PIRA. These issues remain unresolved, and while some like me will never be swayed, others will be swayed if these become things of the past. It remains in SF hands to address these issues, but they won't, as that will be seen as a betrayal of the PIRA.

When you look at all of the above, the conclusion is that there are large swathes of the electorate who will continue to vote for other parties as they do not trust SF. The weaknesses I have identified are not being addressed, and the populist strengths of SF are not carrying a currency in today's Ireland. Something has to change if SF is not to fade back further before the election.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495439#Comment_122495439

Look,you're on shaky ground

Polls were indications of the inevitable at the height of your favourite parties popularity in them

They're not now apparently

No sense in me conversing re polls with you , with that sort of flip flopping

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495573#Comment_122495573

You don’t like statements of fact that is for sure. Here’s two I have given on seperate opinion polls I supposedly have lost faith in:

1. If the current opinion poll that has SF polling at 35-37% occurs in an election then SF IMO will ‘inevitably’ be in government.

2. If the current polling with FG and FF ahead and SF back at 19% were to occur in an election the status quo will be maintained.

There is an actually a 3rd statement I have made which can be evidenced for veracity by comparing the numbers in the polls mentioned above -

3. Polls are not votes and polls can rise and fall.

Can you point out what ‘shaky ground’ I am on?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495649#Comment_122495649

You are the one that doesnt like statements of fact

I posted a screenshot here of you saying opinion polls mean a SF government is inevitable

Now you're saying the opposite about their veracity

Flip flop

Like them when they're nice

Don't like them when they're not

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495733#Comment_122495733

Rubbish, you are lying.

Opinion polls are not votes. If those expressing an opinion go into a polling booth and vote that way then certain outcomes are inevitable. Somebody new goes into government or the status quo maintains.
There is no difference in the two statements I posted. They are neither a loss of faith in polling but an actual affirmation of them.

If you look at a poll in 2022 and one in 2024 it will verify for you that opinion polls can rise and fall.

Liking or hating them has sweet FA to do with it. I have more than adequately shown that I accept the outcomes they indicate if they are followed through at the ballot box.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495777#Comment_122495777

If you're name calling you're losing

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495819#Comment_122495819

What?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495851#Comment_122495851

Its all there in black and white

You've had your ass's handed to you on plates here each time regarding your polling flip flop,have you grown another one?

This is an awful waste of dish washer tablets and my time