Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585157#Comment_119585157

What Blanch said was since the election the percentage support for FF/FG hasn't really changed. The increase in SF has come from them taking votes from other parties.

It was clear in the last election why they lost votes, everyone said it at the time, it was a revolt election. It didn't matter how good or bad the policies and manifesto from SF was people just voted for them.

This is old news

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585040#Comment_119585040

MM won't be the leader of FF come next election. He could tell everyone they are going to partner with PBP for the next election and it won't make a blind bit of difference. New leader, new direction

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585137#Comment_119585137

Well, I see a lot more than SF members who have an issue with how it was done.

Of course we can pretend it was normal politics, but it wasn't.

I think it will factor into the next GE/formation of government and as shown even he most vociferous in FF seem to think it will also, and have modified their position.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585237#Comment_119585237

Well, I see a lot more than SF members who have an issue with how it was done.

As I said, they seem to be put out by the fact that they were unable to form a govt so no surprise they had an issue with the parties that could. That being said, it was 2 years ago.

Of course we can pretend it was normal politics, but it wasn't.

It literally was. Partnership talks were held, some parties agreed some stuff, other parties didn't. Those that did, formed a govt. This is literally how most of our govts are formed so I've no idea what you're referring to but by all means, clarify what you mean by it not being normal politics

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585272#Comment_119585272

I'm not going to labour the point. If you think it was normal, go ahead. Many don't and that will increase if there is a repeat.

How long FF and FG can keep it up is open to debate. I don't see a way they can repeat it without further damage. Their vote share has been in a downward spiral for a long time now, from a high of 86% to just over 40%.

That can easily continue.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585204#Comment_119585204

So every election is a revolt vote. Otherwise we'd see the same results each time.

SF are now a viable third option. I'd expect them to do as well if not better in the next election.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585344#Comment_119585344

I'm not going to labour the point. If you think it was normal, go ahead. Many don't and that will increase if there is a repeat.

The mind boggles but if you don't want to elaborate thats up to you, but it also applies that if you aren't willing to explain the point, then you can't use the point as a way to explain anything, just saying

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585237#Comment_119585237

I don't see how they can be annoyed. The public vote basically gave the Dail a three way dead heat. Ideally parties can hammer out a deal for government but not if they are just incompatible on policies. Every party or group has its red lines and we've seen multiple elections in some countries due to such failures to form a government.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119584813#Comment_119584813

I don't understand this - you seem to think that FF/FG/Lab/Greens/PBP/SD and whoever else will all come 'under pressure' after future elections if SF win most seats.

Who exactly is going to exert this pressure? Yes SF can complain in the media that no one will play ball with us. But that only goes so far.

SF voters might complain but they'll be outnumbered and it is a democracy. The only sure fire route is an overall majority or close to it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585416#Comment_119585416

What's to elaborate on? If you want to ignore the facts - there was a lot of disquiet at the time - that's up to you.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585484#Comment_119585484

So? That doesn't mean anything untoward was done.

Unless you have actual facts that say otherwise.

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585157#Comment_119585157

Losing votes doesn't necessarily mean that all those votes were picked up by anyone else. A lot of traditional FF / FG voters just didn't vote in the last election. They couldn't bring themselves to back "their" (or more realistically, their grandfather's) party's current leadership but that doesn't mean they'll have been able to stomach voting for SF.

dxhound2005

The last election which produced an overall majority was 1977. FF increased their seats from 65 to 84 out of 148. That was on the foot of their Manifesto to abolish Rates, (the combined Property Tax, Bin Charges and Water Charges which are still in place in the North). They said the shortfall in local government funding would be made up from central taxation. But in a very short number of years it led to the Tax marches which dwarfed anything seen in the more recent Water protests. Average wage workers were paying 60% PAYE.

Sinn Fein have promised to abolish the Property Tax. But learning from history they should also abolish Bin Charges and the remaining Water charges. This is what is popular with the "Squeezed Middle" voters and will get them the overall majority.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585511#Comment_119585511

Getting rid of property tax would be so thick, its literally one of the fairest applications of tax in our system

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585430#Comment_119585430

Well that would be fine if the 'red lines' were real. But they weren't. As this article agrees, Martin flirted with the idea of doing a deal when he thought the numbers suited him, on the night of the election.

As the votes were counted Micheál Martin momentarily wavered in his determination not to coalesce with Sinn Féin. 

One more election cycle and Martin gone - I don't think they'll waver next time out TBH.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/07/15/fianna-fail-and-fine-gael-made-a-disastrous-mistake-coalescing-in-2020/

10 years ago or even less, if somebody told you that FF and FG would coalesce they'd be laughed out of the room. Things change.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585508#Comment_119585508

While we don't know if that's the case, we know FG lost a lot and SF gained a lot. The options are, they went to SF or as you say they didn't vote FG that time and a load of new voters went with SF. I don't find that very likely.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585484#Comment_119585484

What disquiet?

I didn't come across any disquiet. The people made a democratic decision to give FF, FG and the Greens a working overall majority, and you are telling me that people were disquieted about it? Do they believe in democracy? If they don't that explains it. If they do believe in democracy, then they don't understand mathematics.

After the next election, SF won't have an overall majority. Once again, they will be required to be courteous to other politicians and genuinely negotiate and compromise in order to form a government. They seem singularly incapable of that, so the only party to blame if SF are not in government are SF. Stamping your feet and crying that you got the most votes is not the way to attract coalition partners.

Sleepy

I find it much more likely that SF managed to get votes from angry young men and women who'd never voted before than to believe that SF managed to turn voters who were previously supporters of a party who at best see them as misguided fools and at worst see them as murderers and terrorists.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585637#Comment_119585637

This is rubbish.

They did not make a decision to give those specific parties a mandate. 😁😁

The electorate gives a mandate for any party or group of party's to negociate a coalition. That gives a government a democratic mandate.

Coalescing for the first time in the history of the state and excluding a party with the largest mandate of all caused many to claim they were clinging to power (aka - disquiet)

As I said if you want to be in denial about that - go ahead. I don't see how you can criticise the claims and then in the next breath claim they were not made.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585511#Comment_119585511

Property tax is a tax break for the rich. Any party pushing to get rid of it hasn't a clue in my opinion.

Plus the "squeezed middle" don't want rid of it. We had one person on boards shouting about getting rid of LPT, one question and he/she clearly had no idea what is was, how it was calculated etc.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585692#Comment_119585692

This article summed up the mood of the country at the time.

It was a running joke that SF supporters seemed to think 24% was a majority and they should be automatically put into government.

So trying to say anything other is incorrect.

https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2020/02/17/24-of-electorate-that-voted-sinn-fein-under-impression-100-of-nation-voted-for-party/

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119584813#Comment_119584813

Well this is the complicated thing about politics. Many people may feel it was not handled well, and I can understand a desire to appeal to all people, but ultimately they are fundamentally wrong so I'm not really sure what you want. Perhaps those who were uneasy deserve to be ignored for failing to understand our democratic system. That or we educate them, but I suspect they wouldn't be responsive to that either.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585673#Comment_119585673

We have a huge amount of floating voters. Most people aren't tied to any party.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585692#Comment_119585692

I'm not in denial about this, I'm aware the claims were made, I just think those people should be ignored as they don't remotely understand our democratic system. What can you realistically do in the face of that?

Ultimately, the "disquiet" was basically entirely from those who voted for SF so why would FF/FG/G/Lab/anyone else care?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585673#Comment_119585673

REDC's analysis of the data seems to suggest that FG are losing votes to SF

It leaves Fine Gael in a very difficult position. Clearly, their support is under severe pressure. And whereas, Fianna Fáil supporter’s stronghold is chiefly among older age groups, Fine Gael’s support actually spanned across the age groups. In the past the party did well among younger voters, perhaps due to goodwill from the change referendums that were held and passed?

But now, those younger voters have moved away to Sinn Fein and to the Green Party. So Fine Gael finds itself in a position where it’s being attacked on many levels, from Fianna Fáil among older age groups, from Sinn Féin younger age groups and from the Green Party.

General Election 2020: Younger Voters Flock to Sinn Féin - RedC Research & Marketing

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585347#Comment_119585347

Is this really a question? not sure what you are saying

Are you trying to say you did not know 2020 was a revolt vote?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585812#Comment_119585812

The only GE that isn't a 'revolt' vote is one where the incumbents get another majority.

What was unusual about 2020 was the party in power was third in the popular vote and still managed to stay in power.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585692#Comment_119585692

The people did give those parties a mandate, they voted for them.

This government despite two of the biggest crises in the history of the state, are within a few small percentage points of their performance in the last election. That tells a lot.

If the leading politicians in SF ever grow up and learn that politics isn't about those who shout the loudest, then they might have a chance of getting into power.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585881#Comment_119585881

no how the government was formed is standard practise.

That’s not a revolt vote

markodaly

One of the biggest issues with SF and their new found popularity is that if they do get into the hot seats, their voters being of the more populist kind will want instant change and results. Once SF can match those expectations, they will be in trouble.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585910#Comment_119585910

The did not give 3 specific parties a mandate. Fact.

Implicit in all our votes is a mandate to any party or independent the right to negociate a coalition.

That's it, you don't mandate a specific set of parties, which is what you claimed here.

The people made a democratic decision to give FF, FG and the Greens a working overall majority

A mandate was also given to other possible coalitions.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585957#Comment_119585957

A mandate was also given to other possible coalitions.

Yes. No one is disputing that. It was up to the political parties involved to decide what they wanted to do.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586221#Comment_119586221

Correct. Nobody 'chose' to mandate specific parties as claimed.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586288#Comment_119586288

I don't think anyone specifically claimed that this government and only this government would have had a mandate. Just that the current as currently formulated clearly has one. FF/SF/G would have one too had they agreed to go into coalition together. But they didn't.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586309#Comment_119586309

The claim was made

The people made a democratic decision to give FF, FG and the Greens a working overall majority, 

They didn't. They give all parties and independents a mandate to form a coalition if there was no overall majority.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586354#Comment_119586354

This is just absurd semantics. The people made a democratic decision to give all parties a mandate to form a coalition and FF/FG/GP did so, therefore the govt has a mandate from the people. The manner in which the people voted meant that FF/FG/GP together have an overall majority.

More or less the entire point being made here is exactly that all parties and independents have a mandate post election to form whatever govt they see fit and can accomplish. This is why SF's wailing about no one talking to them despite being the biggest party is so ridiculous. They will likely be the biggest party (and by a decent margin) after the next election as things stand also, but it is not incumbent upon any representative to align with them or form a government with them - and if another majority govt can be formed then they would have a mandate from the people to govern no matter what number of seats SF get. And if people complain about a lack of democracy in that scenario then they do not understand what on earth they are on about.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586436#Comment_119586436

It is far from semantics as the impression the the electorate 'chose' 3 parties is factually wrong.

And as I said earlier, rightly or wrongly the impression is out there that the process of arriving at this coalition was unusual and smacked of a cling to power.

Denying that is prevalent is also foolish and it will factor into votes next time around.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586490#Comment_119586490

And as I said earlier, rightly or wrongly the impression is out there that the process of arriving at this coalition was unusual and smacked of a cling to power.

That impression is only with SF supporters who spend a significant amount of time trying to tell everyone else they are right.

Everyone else understands the Irish election system

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586490#Comment_119586490

A) its wrongly, and I think its important to acknowledge that

B) its only among those who don't want the current governmental parties, which was less than half the electorate. Essentially it was SF supporters - who were 24.5% of the electorate. Some like to make out it was a lot higher than that.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586574#Comment_119586574

A) I disagree, it isn't entirely wrong IMO There has to be a reason for a unique coalition.

B) Also disagree, I think it's a lot more. They'll be the ones asking what FF and FG intend to do next time.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586667#Comment_119586667

No one wanted to go into power with SF for well published historical reasons. That may change going forward but basically any coalition after the last election would have been unique so that's not a strong argument. There has never been a precedent of the party with the most first preference votes having some "right" to power, particularly not one with as few as 37 seats. It is utterly wrong to suggest there is any absence or denial of democracy in our current government.

I don't think any fall in support has anything to do with the coalition negotiations - particularly given the rise in support in early days of COVID. Things are just a bit **** at the moment and you expect opposition parties to profit in those situations. Ultimately SF support is concentrated in younger people who tend to be more vocal online, but there remains a strong segment of society (rightly or wrongly...) who deeply distrust SF and ultimately they "only" got 24% of first preference votes.

Governments are formed by parties who can come together to form a majority. It is deeply disturbing to me that anyone tries to undermine that.

I would not agree with blanch and others in terms of what is about to happen - I suspect SF will be in govt next time round. But they get there by actually trying to form a government, not sitting back and moaning that no one will talk to them.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586814#Comment_119586814

But FG and FF did not talk to them.

The numbers were not there to an alternative so everybody could see that was it, for SF. They were effectively locked out in people's view.

Now you can give your opinion on it until the cows come home but the fact is a lot of people saw it as clinging to power, further enhanced by now multiple wagon circlings around wrongdoing.

That is gonna be a big factor in the next election, like it or not and FG and FF know this. FF rowing back from a 'no talk' position says to me they will go in, if a programme for government can be agreed. They will certainly negotiate this time.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586968#Comment_119586968

They were effectively locked out in people's view.

Again, this was just in SF supporters view. Nobody else.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586968#Comment_119586968

You really don't seem to understand how govts are formed

The victim complex you're assigning to SF'ers is funny though

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587062#Comment_119587062

I fully understand.

As i said, I really don’t care what your opinion of the opinion of others is.

It’s immaterial.

That opinion is damaging FF in particular and that is why the signs are(links provided) FF are indicating they won’t be involved in locking out a party with a mandate.

Whether the damage to FF is permanent remains to be seen.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585812#Comment_119585812

I think some people are trying to see the silver lining on losing a load of votes to SF. Anytime FF got knocked out and FG in, or vice versa, that was a revolt vote. Can you point to any election ever where people decided to take their vote elsewhere and it wasn't based on wanting rid of the current government?

What do you think 'revolt' means as regards the electorate favouring a different party? Is it like a protest vote? Can you tell me what you mean by 'revolt vote', maybe I'm not getting it?

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586436#Comment_119586436

TBF, do you think there was more than a few FF voters who never in a million years thought they were voting for a FG government and vice versa?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587453#Comment_119587453

This 100%

It is going to be more and more of an issue for FF.

And I think will massively influence them if the GE goes the way of the polls at the minute.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585912#Comment_119585912

I disagree. The people who voted SF are no different than when they voted FG. No party has offered quick fixes and nobody expects them from any party.

We keep getting told the tide is turning on housing, but...

People want to try something different. Its the same when FF are in and people go with FG for a change. Except now there's SF to pick.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586999#Comment_119586999

SF votes are worth exactly the same as FF ones, FG ones or yours.

It doesn't matter what you think of the opinion, it exists and FF in particular have reacted to it. (links provided) They will not be seen to do it again.

So next time, it will come down to what can be agreed in a programme for government...and IMO that can be agreed between the two parties ideologies.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587709#Comment_119587709

I never said a SF vote was worth less, what sort of rubbish is that?

What I said was SF voters don't seem to understand the Irish system to elect a government. Excellently demonstrated by yourself over the last few posts.