Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

blackcard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557873#Comment_121557873

A lot of Sinn Fein voters actually are British

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558594#Comment_121558594

I'll agree Leo's performance was embarrassing for him and yes first preference is indicative of service to a constituency but it's still useful solely as a constituency metric. It's pointless to use it as a metric for declaring victory or winners and losers at a national level when it's seats that decide that. Tbh the idea of winners and losers in a PR STV system like ours, where the possibility of an outright majority by one party is nigh impossible, is pointless imo and just a silly attempt to import 2 party politics from the likes of the UK or US where FPtP has decimated their political landscapes.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558775#Comment_121558775

Leo moved the Childrens Hospital from his own backyard, that was a critical talking point in last election and one of the reasons he suffered so badly. He still got elected.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558594#Comment_121558594

A lot of first preference votes last election had nothing to do with how a politician had served their constituency. As we know a lot of people had a revolt vote and just picked the person on the list not FF/FG and hence why SF picked up a lot of votes. Or are you claiming that people in Clare rewarded Violet Anne for her excellent work in the constituency with voting her in? this was the same all over the country.

Will people do the same this time?

dasa29

Guys I don't know what you are talking about with Leo Varadkar but as far as I can tell the following are his FPV for the last 3 General Elections.

2011 General Election 19.7% 8,359, Quota 8,495, reached Quota on second count with 8,555. Electorate 62,348 Valid poll 42,472

2016 General Election 19.7% 8,247, Quota 8,391, reached Quota on third count with 9,021. Electorate 64,639 Valid poll 41,952

2020 General Election 19.4% 8,478, Quota 8,726, reached Quota on fifth count with 8,763. Electorate 70337 Valid poll 43,628

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558594#Comment_121558594

The most important thing in STV in multi seat constituency is to keep rmthe vote down of strong canditates.

Willie O Dea hoovers up a lotbof votes but fails to bring in a running mate. FG tactics are to split the vote usuaaa evenly as possible so as to give canditates a xhanxe of staying in tge race as long as possible

Garret Fitzgerald famously once reduced his own vote so low that he had the least first preferences of three FG canditates in a four seat constituency. He got the three canditates elected as he picked up transfers as other canditates got elected.

The ideal situation is where canditates pick up tge last two seats in a constituency

lumphammer2

This is hard to know ... SF will be biggest party in a 2025 election followed by either FF or FG ... either way they are the 3 biggest ... I don't think SF will get a majority or any party ... but would SF go into coalition with the other 2? FF maybe FG unlikely ... but either would defeat their agenda imv ... it depends then on how Labour, PBF, SDs etc do ... SF aim is for a fully left govt ... FF and FG are centre to centre right ...

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121559685#Comment_121559685

This is going way off topic but the first time he was up for election as a sitting Taoiseach was 2020 which was by a wide margin his worst result making it in by the skin of his teeth on the 5th count showing his constituency were not that happy with him at all.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560076#Comment_121560076

Which was down to the Children's Hospital as I already posted, it was top discussion point at last election and especially in Leo's area after he was seen as one of the main people who didn't back it coming to Blanchardstown

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560025#Comment_121560025

FG won't and that's crystal clear

As posted here already FF have no advantage of going with SF. They are not trustworthy. Their policies are a joke. They have a lot of poor politicians and will just point to FF when everything goes wrong. If you want an example just look at the North when it is everyone elses fault for Sinn Fein incompetence.

Also FF supporters IMO don't want to go near SF, especially when you see the abuse hurled out on the internet daily.

Do SF aim to have a fully left govt? after last election they managed to agree terms with no other party. if they wanted it would you not think they would start trying to come together with some parties now?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557477#Comment_121557477

The winners in any general election are those that form the government afterwards. The losers go into opposition.

It has always been that way. Fianna Fail had 45% of the vote in 1973, 11% more than the next party, they lost six seats even though their percentage vote went up, and they had 15 more seats than the nearest challenger. They "won" that election, far more than Sinn Fein "won" the last one. However you don't have idiots calling them the winners of that election, as they ended up in opposition.

ELM327

It must be so ironic to the SF heads that if, we had the UK FPTP system here, they would likely be in government already. I didnt know the 1973 election results, that was an interesting read.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560624#Comment_121560624

It wasn't just 1973. From 1932 until 2011, Fianna Fail had the highest first preference vote in every single general election. They missed out on government quite a few times, but were always the biggest and most popular political party.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560468#Comment_121560468

Yes I said his constituency were not happy with him..... what are you trying to argue about? It doesn't matter the exact reason that a sitting taoiseach got back in by the skin of his teeth except that it happened and was incredibly embarrassing for him.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560748#Comment_121560748

Al Im saying is the Children Hospital was the big spin last time

It doesn't really matter how he got in. Remember Violet Anne and other got in very easy.

markodaly

Even Una Mullaly is getting tired of SF nonsense.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/01/01/una-mullally-what-voters-need-from-sinn-fein-in-2024-is-less-attack-dog-more-vision/

Bobson Dugnutt

They’d be as well off ditching the Una and the Ógra lads with the Cuban flag constituency. Will never keep them happy and you’re better to throw a trouble maker out of a pub early.

FrancieBrady

Press silly season. Paper never refuses ink as they say.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572000#Comment_121572000

I don't see Una like that,she's an asset to Sinn Féin provided Belfast listen to her

That's the great imponderable here that she more or less says,we all know Sinn Féins goal is a united Ireland vote as soon as possible and its going to be a thinly veiled price for government that Fianna Fáil might give them

The preferred UI outcome of a vote up north or even that it would be given is far from certain

So you could have Sinn Féin in government with everything going wrong,taking all the flack and no UI which would be a disaster for the Belfast mandarins

So really She's right,less Angry Pierse and more calm collected we can do better and yes they'd be mad not to listen to what she's wrote but do ya know they probably won't as its all about get the keys first ,get in a position to demand a vote,pirouetting policies, all of them if necessary as the wind blows,winging the rest of it

It's no puff journalism

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572854#Comment_121572854

That's the great imponderable here that she more or less says,we all know Sinn Féins goal is a united Ireland vote as soon as possible and its going to be a thinly veiled price for government that Fianna Fáil might give them

It is not in either of their remits to give!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572854#Comment_121572854

 but do ya know they probably won't as its all about get the keys first ,get in a position to demand a vote,pirouetting policies, all of them if necessary as the wind blows,winging the rest of it

,,,or just run the country according to an agreed programme for government like all the governments before them and calmly create a Plan for a UI as part of that programme and in accordance with our constitutional aspiration?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573764#Comment_121573764

The pirouetting wouldn't inspire confidence in that theory for me

Learned articles and Aoife Moore's book wouldn't either

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572854#Comment_121572854

Perhaps but a core bit of SF's vote are angry populist reactionary types.

So if SF gets more considered, more mature, more statemen like i.e. move to the centre a bit more, the angry voter types will abandon them and move elsewhere.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573979#Comment_121573979

The enduring debate before any change of government- my lot are better than that lot.

It’s just arrogance really. We are the masters…nobody else is capable. Age old political machinations.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573764#Comment_121573764

Most people don't care about a UI apart from a few head bangers.

If SF makes a UI a priority, voters will abandon them in droves because in their own lives, there are 10 things more important that need to be fixed.

Bobson Dugnutt

A bit of United Ireland stuff is fine, but too much Michelle O’Neill and funerals of dead IRA leaders is off putting in the 26. They seem to have put Adams out to pasture anyway which is smart.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574057#Comment_121574057

I hope that Sinn Fein make a united Ireland front and centre of their election campaign. It will lose them votes big time.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574057#Comment_121574057

The electorate behind the most popular party do care. They know SF have this as a priority.

The history of constitutional change should show you that change has originated from much smaller seeds.

What change can a campaign of persuasion bring, potentially huge change I would contend.

That is the democratic goal. Will a significant amount of the electorate mandate SF to continue? Remains to seen.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574297#Comment_121574297

You are wrong.

True that some people in SF and those who support them care about a UI but as polls have shown the new support SF have garnered don't care about a UI. They want an alternative, the anti-establishment type who wants change.

These people don't care one iota about a UI.

FrancieBrady

76% in the south want a BP.

That kinda scotches any notion that people don’t care about it. It is further reflected in the constitutional aspiration.

Mary Lou McDonald has, just recently affirmed it will be a key part of the programme for government of any coalition she is a part of.

twin_beacon

I think the amount of people that want a border poll in ROI is irrelevant at the moment, as figures are not really reflected the same in NI. Also, if you were to lay out what a United Ireland wound entail to the regular Joe in ROI (higher taxes to fund the decades of under investment in NI by British Governments), I think they would be second guessing the romantic idea of a United Ireland.

Most people voting for SF want changes to the big issues they face right now, housing and health care. If SF do manage to get into Government and they don't make a serious dent in either (not possible to fix either within one term) within 5 years, then their new "anti establishment" voters will vote for the next party that promises change at the following election.