Irish birthrate slumps 22% in a decade

Shoog · 30-06-2022 9:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119273670#Comment_119273670

I have been clear here - immigration is not the main driver of rising house prices and rents.

Dyr · 30-06-2022 10:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119273674#Comment_119273674

Not a hard question to answer: If you have a housing market above capacity and add a hundred thousand people to the market in a year, does that increase the demand for housing?

Instead we get this:

Tony EH · 01-07-2022 4:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119272540#Comment_119272540

"Practically falling down" is not quite the same as "vacant".

I remember Dublin, too, in the 80's. A lot of buildings were condemned and waiting to be demoed. I think the difference is today they are just lying empty waiting to be flipped, not torn down.

Tony EH · 01-07-2022 4:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274061#Comment_119274061

Immigration compounds the problem. It's not the cause of it however.

No, it's not a hard question to answer.

Shoog · 01-07-2022 5:54am

What some people want is a simplie(istic) solution to account for all their problems. Some simple other to blame

Hamachi · 01-07-2022 6:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274377#Comment_119274377

And some people are so wedded to and blinkered by their ideology, that they try to deny the most foundational rule of economics.

Shoog · 01-07-2022 6:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274413#Comment_119274413

Yes when an asset is undersupplied and monopolised it drives up prices. Simple.

Sunny Disposition · 01-07-2022 8:23am

Saying immigration is a major factor in the housing crisis isn't blaming anyone, it's not the fault of immigrants for sure, they didn't make come up with the policies.

01-07-2022 8:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119274704#Comment_119274704

Ahh well... we live in a world of absolutes.. so if you say that immigration is a factor/part of why the housing crisis exists.. you'll get a variety of posters assuming that you're blaming immigrants for the whole thing.

Our population growth from immigration is definitely affecting both the rental and purchasing markets in Ireland. It's not the only reason, or even the primary reason for the housing shortage, but it certainly contributes in a major way.

bb1234567 · 01-07-2022 9:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058248801/irish-birthrate-slumps-22-in-a-decade

Yes nations in the east seeked to heal it, and they didn't work. Germany, Russia and several eastern european nations also tried it too. So try as you may, lots of policies have been tried around the world, but none have had any impact on fertility.

Shoog · 01-07-2022 10:18am

Can't have noticed that certain contributors are only blaming immigration.

A bit of myopia going on here

Igotadose · 01-07-2022 10:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275223#Comment_119275223

And if you look into the PPS data, a steady 15% of ppsn are granted to UK and US nationals. I'd assume norners make up a lot of the former, and marriages or parents/grands the latter. Kind of hard to prevent either

Shoog · 01-07-2022 11:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275291#Comment_119275291

But sure what's the issue with those Goodfellows.

Igotadose · 01-07-2022 11:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275586#Comment_119275586

Based on this thread, the only issue would be their complexions

donaghs · 01-07-2022 5:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119275651#Comment_119275651

I think that’s a “dog whistle”, don’t talk about immigration, or I’ll call you a racist.

How can you plan for such increasing population, if you’re afraid or ideological opposed to admitting it’s happening?

macvin · 01-07-2022 5:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158858#Comment_119158858

100% agree.

If births dropped worldwide there would be no need for much of the climate actions that are being taken.

Excessive population is the main cause of climate change.

Hamachi · 02-07-2022 5:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119277258#Comment_119277258

For the tenth time, births are dropping precipitously worldwide. Europe, North America, Australasia, East Asia, and much of Latin America are already below replacement level fertility.

China and India alone comprise 40% of the global population. The Chinese fertility rate is already catastrophically low at ~1.3. The population of China is projected to be less than 700 million by the end of this century. India dropped below replacement level last year. In fact, many of the southern Indian states have already been below the replacement threshold for more than a decade. Due to the tempo effect, the Indian population will continue growing until the 2050s, when it is projected to plateau and then begin declining.

Looking at other global regions, the Maghreb and the Middle East are scarcely above replacement level fertility and will almost certainly drop below that threshold within a decade. Take Iran as a example. In the 1970s, the fertility rate was between 5.0 and 6.0. Today, that same fertility rate is 1.7, lower than Ireland and significantly below the 2.2 threshold for a developing nation.

The only global region in which there is on-going, explosive population growth, is sub-Saharan Africa. That’s where efforts should be directed to curb expanding populations. Promote development, education of women, effective contraception, and abortion in that region. Fertility rates could be moderated within one generation if there was a concerted effort to tackle the demographic explosion happening there. Of course, this is unlikely to happen, for reasons that dare not be spoken, but are implicitly understood.

Shoog · 02-07-2022 5:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119278829#Comment_119278829

This is all an expected given but is not sufficient to avert the catastrophic consequences of over population. Increasing life expectancy despite falling fetility rates will see us hit at least 9billion. Living standards for those 9billion are rising causing resource demand to similarly rise.

History tells us what happened when 3 billion went to 7 billion and it was a loss of 60% of total biodiversity. Climate change is just a symptom of the greater damage we are doing to the ecosystem.

As a species we have already doomed ourselves to a catastrophic unplanned collapse in numbers, and it is my belief that we are in the early stages of our own extinction event.

Hamachi · 02-07-2022 6:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119278840#Comment_119278840

The poster made the claim that births need to drop. They are in free fall. That’s the point I was dealing with.

Climate change is real and is happening. This is a problem that needs to be tackled urgently. Solutions of varying degrees of efficacy will be devised.

Mankind will muddle through as it always does. Predictions of our imminent demise have always proven to be premature. I suspect this will continue to be the case.

Shoog · 02-07-2022 7:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119278875#Comment_119278875

If you look at the catastrophic collapse in biodiversity it's rash to be so confident. If you press most scientists who have the knowledge to have a valid opinion, they are all in existential crisis and terrified about our future. The collapse in Ocean phytoplankton is the undiscussed ticking time bomb and maps to the last mass extintion event which wiped out 95% of all life on earth.

Hamachi · 02-07-2022 8:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119278931#Comment_119278931

Which scientists have you pressed? Can you cite their projected outcomes and their credentials to offer that opinion?

Frankly, your musings feel like they originate from somebody who is exhausted, depleted, ramping down in life. I work in tech; I come together with others every day to solve difficult problems. I’m confident that when people collaborate, bring together their collective intellectual horse power, they’ll find solutions.

I’m off out now to bring my two young kids to the beach. My pregnant wife is having a lie-in. Oops, I guess I’m part of the problem. On the bright side, I feel like I’ve done my bit to bolster our flagging birth rate!

Have a good one.

Shoog · 02-07-2022 8:58am

The problem there is technologist/engineers don't tend to talk to ecologists and environmental scientists (my field) so they tend to be Ill informed on environmental issues and are dismissive of their concerns.

There are no quick fixes for a warmed and acidified body such as the world's oceans. The clock is ticking and most don't even realise the clock exists.

spontindeed · 27-07-2022 11:53am

I heard there is a correlation between the declining birth rate and the decline in support for FG and FF because the middle class are among the most impacted by the declining birth rate. The radical Green Party wants to depopulate the planet and they think that food is "too cheap".

donaghs · 27-07-2022 1:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119393807#Comment_119393807

The interesting thing is that our “Green Party” don’t seem to mention the world population explosion.

spontindeed · 28-07-2022 1:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119394257#Comment_119394257

The decline of FG and FF is very interesting, though. It's no wonder the declining middle class are increasingly wanting someone else running the country in 2025.

xxxxxxl · 28-07-2022 1:48am

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/830c2-minister-donnelly-secures-free-contraception-for-women-aged-between-17-25-years-in-budget-2022/

Won't help either. I support the Idea but at 25 your prob have a job path then and will not have kids at all. Obviously some women will but number will be getting lower and lower.

spontindeed · 28-07-2022 4:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119397449#Comment_119397449

Proposed laws requiring Men to prove consent (which are deeply flawed and a breach of the EU Treaties) will mean that more Men will boycott relationships with Women. It's going too get a lot harder for Ladies to find a good guy. There's one bonus to this in that the extremist Rape Crisis Network are celebrating these new laws - I think that tells us all we need to know.

Shoog · 28-07-2022 5:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119397478#Comment_119397478

What a load of dick.

brokenangel · 28-07-2022 8:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119397478#Comment_119397478

😂

This just means that men going up to pick up drunk ladies for one night stands will have to think twice.

It won't make it harder to "find a good guy".

Are you complaining because the huge number of rapes might drop? plus that women now will feel it is easier to bring charges against someone who rapes them?

28-07-2022 3:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119394257#Comment_119394257

Peak poeple is an inevitability taking into account current demographic trends. The 22nd century will be a century of depopulation as the children of the first half of the 21st century die off and the grandchildren are having below replacement level birth rates

Igotadose · 28-07-2022 4:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119399973#Comment_119399973

The population worldwide continues to grow. Without a severe reduction in population growth (negative would be nice), we won't reach anything like 'peak people' except due to loss of resources, i.e., if peak people is 'how many can the planet support' we're probably past that already.

donaghs · 28-07-2022 9:32pm

Most countries already have stable or declining populations. Specific countries, mostly in Africa, have higher population growth which is driving the overall global population upwards.

28-07-2022 10:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119397748#Comment_119397748

I suspect it's the risk factor that a relationship or dating experience (its not limited to casual sex) gone sour, and a bitter partner could use the new laws to claim rape or sexual abuse. As much as some posters would love to portray women as being perfectly sound and fair all the time, there are plenty of dodgy ladies out there too.

Now, personally, I think few will take this approach, but I'm sure it'll happen somewhat, especially as further laws will likely make it easier for women to avail of such measures. All in the name of helping women to come forward with their claims, but ultimately stacking the deck against males.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119397478#Comment_119397478

Unlikely. The reality is that men will continue to date, and seek partners. There's not going to be any kind of boycott. TBH I suspect we'll simply see a shift in dating patterns with more men seeking inter-cultural or interracial relationships, due to the perception that the difference in culture will matter, and less risk involved, due to the lack of feminist influence in those cultures.

29-07-2022 6:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400237#Comment_119400237

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02522-6

...

Kermit.de.frog · 29-07-2022 10:53am

This is where hysteria gets in the way of reality. There is no crisis here at all.

You could fit every single person on the planet today easily in to the state of Texas and every single one would enjoy over 8,000 sq ft of their own private area.

A bit of perspective is what's missing today.

Too many people being influenced by complete lunatics telling them the world's about to end.

RobbieTheRobber · 29-07-2022 11:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119402990#Comment_119402990

Plenty of space in Ireland so for a few hundred more million.

Igotadose · 29-07-2022 12:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119402990#Comment_119402990

Sigh. Like this is a new pro-overpopulation gotcha. What would they eat? What would they drink? What happens when they need to take a dump. A bit of perspective is definitely needed when sh1te like this is spouted (goes back to at least the 1970's when I first heard it.)

The only way that works is in the Matrix. Not reality.

RobbieTheRobber · 29-07-2022 1:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119403483#Comment_119403483

They haven't even thought of the smell.

https://youtu.be/LW0s9if4_3Y

Tony EH · 29-07-2022 2:15pm

The problem has never been "overpopulation" of the planet. The planet can support many more people than will exist in 2100. The problem is that we tend to congregate in the same areas. We need to start seriously rethinking where people live and how they live cos this issue isn't going to go away.

Igotadose · 29-07-2022 2:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404016#Comment_119404016

It can't support what's there today. There's not enough food or water to go around. It won't get better by 2100 unless the population is reduced, which won't happen.

Tony EH · 29-07-2022 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404029#Comment_119404029

Well, that kinda my point. By "support", I mean merely fit. "overpopulation" tends to make people think that the world is stuffed to gills with humans. It's not.

But agreed, there are numerous issues to sort out with regards to how people support themselves and with climate change being a factor, that's going to compound the issue further. When parts of India, Africa, the Middle East and SE Asia become to hot to bear, they're going start migrating North to cooler climes.

busunderer · 29-07-2022 2:25pm

it inversely correlates with the rise in monkeypox

spontindeed · 29-07-2022 3:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119397748#Comment_119397748

Men don't approach women at the bar anymore.

Many men are of the opinion that to save themselves from being accused of something they should avoid women at all costs. Avoiding interactions with women, in order to prevent being accused of something. The future doesn't look bright for love and romance. Why have good men disappeared from society and avoiding relationships in increasing numbers? It's not just because of the housing crisis or cost of living, suggesting there may be some other possible reason.

For desperate single women: the women that are not getting approached as they used to. Now some of them have resorted to shaming, bullying, and other forms of mind games to force men to date them. A lot of these women are always angry. They sometimes view men as this thing that needs to be controlled, tricked, or abused. The burden of proof should not fall on the accused and I think this would be reasonable. Male voters make up about 50% of society and we'll see what they say about this at the next election!