Public Pay Talks - see mod warning post 4293

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651779#Comment_121651779

4.6% is a month on month increase.

If you read down through your own link there it states the following:

Consumer Price Index Annual Review - 2023

The annual average rate of inflation in 2023 was +6.3%. This compares to an increase of 7.8% for 2022 and an increase of 2.4% for 2021.

The largest year-on-year price increase was recorded in February 2023 when prices rose by 8.5% compared with the previous February. 

The largest price increases were recorded for Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+15.6%), Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+9.8%), Restaurants & Hotels (+7.8%) and Recreation & Culture (+7.8%).

Now I don't think a 1.75% pay increase in 2024 and a 3.2% increase in 2025 is going to be enough.

bren2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651874#Comment_121651874

I think you’re reading that wrong.

4.6% isn’t the “month on month increase”. Prices did not increase that much from November to December. It compares the prices of goods from December 2023 to December 2022. The CPI is the inflation measure in Ireland.

Whats written below and the 6.3% you’re referring to is the average when you look at January 2023 to 22, Feb 23 to Feb 22, March 23 to March 22 etc. ie averaging these numbers over the year. That is an interesting figure but not the official inflation rate. It’s not a measure of anything meaningful.

I am assuming the inflation rate for a year is Jan 1st to Jan 1st and hence we don’t the inflation rate for 2023 yet.

My point stands.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651620#Comment_121651620

You should stop using calendar year figures because they don’t reflect reality. If your salary increases by 10% in December 2024 and another 10% in December 2025, you would say your salary increased 0.83% in 2024 and the same 2025.

What matters is getting the increase 1. at the same interval every year (or at least, not pushing for later months) and 2. with a percentage you are happy with.

64869923

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651736#Comment_121651736

I'm a lower grade and I need the money. Just scraping by at the moment and a day off would be me sitting at home because I can't afford to do anything. Genuinely considering leaving because the job pays so little.

chrisd2019

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651654#Comment_121651654

What if anything has been the SF response to the proposed deal?

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651970#Comment_121651970

Well the salary increase in the example you gave there would be a 5.875% increase overall relative to January 1st 2024.

I understand the point you're making but I do not accept it for one very simple reason - the total gross salary of every public servant (i.e. figures in their pay packets) will increase by only 1.75% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. That is a mathematical fact.

You cannot have your cake and eat it. This is why government pay in small amounts over long periods - they overall headline figure is much larger than the true actual figure. In the end you have to take a reference point and January 1st 2024 is that reference point because a new deal should have started by then.

A 3.5% pay rise (in the current deal for 2024) can only be claimed to be a 3.5% rise if it is back dated to January 1st 2024.

I know people working in the private sector who get pay increases and/or bonuses as a percentage of their salary at one particular point. Their salary jumps the percentage they state it jumps. People on welfare get their increases on January 1st. When the minimum wage increased by 12% on January 1st it was a genuine 12% increase. So why then are public servants screwed around with promises of tiny pay rises two/three years down the line which the media add up TODAY and claim it to be a much bigger increase than is the reality.

Hawkeye123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121638312#Comment_121638312

This year, 9 billion in Irish government bonds comes to maturity. That figure will be significantly higher in 2025 and higher again in 2026. Our economy is slowing. Interest rates are "sticky" so they won`t be coming down much or quickly. I do concede that they will come down but not because of falling inflation. It will be because the indebted businesses and mortgage holders are unable to cope with correctve monetary policy, so the inflation problem will remain uncorrected. I believe inflation is at the start of a long term upward trend. Everyone will end up paying higher prices, so the indebted won`t have to take their proper dosage.

If inflation persists or increases, bond holders will probably try selling on the secondary market but only if they find a greater fool. What if there are no greater fools? Bond yields would have to increase an awful lot and that would require higher taxes to fund the interest payments. In December, inflation increased "unexpectedly" and that taking EU`s own figures. Like all official figures on inflation, those who cause it, prefer it to be understated.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651995#Comment_121651995

It is generally the case that opposition parties don't get involved in this sort of stuff as nothing to be gained by either supporting or not supporting public servants.

joe1979

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651995#Comment_121651995

https://vote.sinnfein.ie/government-playing-politics-with-public-sector-pay-agreement-louise-oreilly-td/

bobbysands81

Gone through the last 60 or so press releases/news items on the Labour.ie website and no mention at all of the public service pay negotiations never mind chirping in on them.

I’ve no idea why Unions give money to the Labour Party anymore. Howlin gleefully passing legislation to cut our wages should have been the end of the link. They’re as far removed from Connolly as would be possible.

dubrov

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651965#Comment_121651965

4.6% is the annual increase for Dec 2023 (i.e. from Dec 2022 - Dec 2023).

It looks like they average the inflation index over the year to get the annual rate.

E.g. 2023 average = 119.4, 2022 Average =112.3 => 6.3% inflation for 2023.

It is easy to compare inflation rates with public sector pay rises over the same period and it clear the rises have been far below inflation.

You could argue that private sector salaries haven't increased with inflation either but I am not so sure.

CZ 453

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651986#Comment_121651986

Completely understand. I don't know how much more the government will move though. I suppose I see the balance they are trying to achieve. Additional annual leave just doesn't seem to attract the same outrage that additional percentages in pay would (imo).

crinkley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121654628#Comment_121654628

For the lower grades I think the increments should be given every 6 months instead of 12, I'd prefer that to an extra day off

bren2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121654625#Comment_121654625

Yes but the original post wasn't referring to the average inflation rate, they referred to inflation in 2023. There's a subtle but significantly different meaning between the two.

If you want to quote stats, that terminology is important.

bren2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121654628#Comment_121654628

Additional annual leave is job specific. A unilateral increase doesn’t make sense. Teachers getting an extra day doesn’t make sense. That’s my issue with it.

pygmaliondreams

An extra day of AL is worthless, plenty of people in the CS I see never taking a day because they're so busy with staff shortages piling stress onto small teams.

Lots of people with 50 days built up having to be forced to take time off, what's AL going to do for them? Especially with the circular last year changing carry over so it's not like those extra days would be brought into the next year regardless.

pygmaliondreams

An extra day of AL is worthless, plenty of people in the CS I see never taking a day because they're so busy with staff shortages piling stress onto small teams.

Lots of people with 50 days built up having to be forced to take time off, what's AL going to do for them? Especially with the circular last year changing carry over so it's not like those extra days would be brought into the next year regardless.

CZ 453

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121655121#Comment_121655121

Never thought of that. Thanks for pointing that out.

skidmarkoner

The lack of carry over on AL is a massive driver to leave the CS not gonna lie it was one if the selling points, now we have shot pay and shot benefits

AyeGer

Whatever deal they come up with the government are going to have to front load the pay rise. Year 1 needs to see a significant increase.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121655812#Comment_121655812

exactly a 2% in mar and 1.5% in oct amounts to 1.875% approx. over the year is optically better

versus

1.5% in march and 2% in oct or 1.625% approx. over the year

inflation has been running at about 5% each of the last few years so workers need some support to

CramCycle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651756#Comment_121651756

Work to rule is very difficult as some jobs , just like in the private sector, haven't a hard and fast description.

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121656041#Comment_121656041

How are you arriving at 2% in March + 1.5% in October equalling 1.875% for the year?

Assuming a starting monthly salary of 1000 (easy for calculations), that would mean 2 months @ 1000, 7 months at 1020 and 3 months at 1035, totalling 12245. Without any raises, it would be 12000 for the year, so an increase of 245 for the year. 245/12000 = 2.04%.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121656200#Comment_121656200

thanks, i like your math better :)

2.04 sounds better than governments 1.75% for this year but i'm sure the union has a very strong case to push for much better

Ezeoul

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121655687#Comment_121655687

The change to carryover is really, really annoying.

chrisd2019

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121652990#Comment_121652990

Thank you, though no indication of what level if any a SF administration would offer as a pay increase!

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121656200#Comment_121656200

It's 1.5% in March and 2 % in October.

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121657738#Comment_121657738

My response was to combat14's post (https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121656041/#Comment_121656041), which started with:

"exactly a 2% in mar and 1.5% in oct amounts to 1.875% approx. over the year is optically better"

My post was nothing to do with what has been offered, it was purely in relation to a miscalculated figure.

I would suggest making sure you're reading the conversation before replying to ensure you know what you're responding to.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658025#Comment_121658025

In fairness it's probably better to stick to the facts rather than what people wish things to be.

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659174#Comment_121659174

In fairness, combat14 was illustrating how switching the sequence in which the increases will change the effect on a person's salary for the year.

If we should just "stick to the facts", that would suggest there should be no discussion over what deal would be palatable for people? Because surely the only "fact" is the deal that has been offered?