Public Pay Talks - see mod warning post 4293

AyeGer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119484296#Comment_119484296

The inflation rates are getting worrying, at this stage the unions should probably be looking for at least 10% pay rises for the public sector.

bren2001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488159#Comment_119488159

Simply never going to happen. (in one go)

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488159#Comment_119488159

uk now prediciting 13% inflation on the way there

combat14

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0818/1316501-govt-to-make-revised-offer-when-pay-talks-resume/

Govt to make 'revised offer' when public sector pay talks resume

"We are very conscious that living standards are under pressure for all workers,"

The last round of talks ended in June when unions rejected an offer of a 5% pay increase over two years.

combat14

UK inflation to hit 18% as energy bills rocket, warns Citi – business live

Rising cost of living is “entering the stratosphere” says investment bank

The last time UK inflation was higher than 18.6% was in 1976, after an oil supply shock that devastated the global economy and left the UK seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund, points out Bloomberg.

It last matched that level in 1980, according to Bloomberg figures. (The Gaurdian)

2.5% pay rise before taxes is not going to cut the mustard ....

Summer2020

I can't understand why they haven't tried to tie down the public sector to a deal quicker. The longer this goes on the more its going to cost them. Inflation will soar over 10% this winter.

Personally speaking our levelpay direct debits for gas/electricity has increased from €140 per month for both to €350 per month for both. This is based on estimated predicted usage. Energy bills this winter are going to bring a world of pain

combat14

INMO to ballot members on industrial action as public pay deal talks stall

The executive council of the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation (INMO), had decided to start a pre-ballot information week on August 24 and begin a ballot on September 1 should progress not be made in the talks.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/inmo-to-ballot-members-on-industrial-action-as-public-pay-deal-talks-stall-41928799.html

will definitely be cheaper for government to do a deal now before sept. budget .. once unions start to ballot things could snowball

combat14

CSO data indicates dairy producers charging 53 per cent more than last year

Food, electricity and building materials prices jump again in July

Wholesale electricity prices rose by 86.3 per cent annually and 47 per cent from June to July, increases that utilities companies have then passed on to consumers in the form of higher bills.

Wholesale construction materials prices, meanwhile, were 20.6 per cent higher at the end of July despite than a year previous, up 3.8 per cent in the month alone from 2.4 per cent in June.

the CSO figures indicate that the price of some timber products, including treated wood, had more than doubled in 12 months while steel and reinforcing metal prices jumped 46.7 per cent over the same period and over 10 per cent in July alone.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/22/food-electricity-and-building-materials-prices-jumped-again-in-july/

the government must be holding off negotiating to get an idea of the real rate of inflation at this stage ...

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506430#Comment_119506430

A lot of the current inflation is temporary and with the rising of interest rates some are predicting .75 in September will start bringing it down you can see in the US for example Timber has fallen back to what it was prior to the supply issues ensuing from covid. When the war in Russia is over oil/gas prices will also come way back down and prices at the petrol pump is already starting to decrease. No point giving the PS 10% when inflation is temporary.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506541#Comment_119506541

"when the war in russia is over" ... do pray tell when that will be...??

citi bank analysts now predicting 18.5% inflation in the UK for early next year which is on a par with mid 1970s oil price shocks ..

this inflation doesn't appear temporary to anyone rational looking at it ..

fliball123

tp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506587#Comment_119506587

How do you or anyone else know, what we know is inflation is mainly due to supply issues from Covid and the war in the Ukraine, it would follow logically that when both are no longer an issue prices will fall. A case in point is petrol at the pump is coming down due to the supply side issues easing up. By giving more pay rises to the the public sector it allows one sector to chase inflation and the other asked to pay more for them to do so. We are going have a recession in the country in the next 12 months or so. How can anyone rationally say inflation is here to stay when its only after starting in the last 12 months which coincides with both covid supply chain related issues and war which have caused issues of high inflation in energy and food. Give it 12 months and see where we are, otherwise if some have more money to chase inflation it means we will have a bigger problem in 2/3 years time. We need the ECB to up its rates by a few % to stop inflation.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2022/0819/1316708-petrol-prices-oil-supply-refinery-capacity-recession/

Tonesjones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506587#Comment_119506587

Just as well we don't live in the UK then. Best and fairest course of action is 5% over 2 years for PS. They are already getting a rise this year and last year.

When the country was shuttered they never missed a pay day so should have savings to fall back on. Sort of a circular economy.

10% would cost 1.6 billion and the tax payers get no increase in services for their money from it. Not realistic at all whatsoever

fritzelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506806#Comment_119506806

They're looking at giving the unemployed 7.5% but you begrudge tax payers getting a little raise

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506828#Comment_119506828

eh its not all tax payers is it now?

Summer2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506541#Comment_119506541

Its not temporary. It's blindingly obvious to anyone with a brain that it's here for the medium term ..not a "couple of months" as stated by the govt in Feb, then a couple months more etc etc . We're not fools so don't try and humour us as such.

08122019

Eh it doesn’t say all tax payers does it now?

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506430#Comment_119506430

2022 version of the same spec TV from LG is up 52% on the 2021 version price, according to this example;

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119504306#Comment_119504306

exitstageleft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506541#Comment_119506541

@fliball123, once again, your understanding of inflation is incorrect. I think you should look into it more since your misapprehension informs a lot of your comments.

But to try one more time...

Whether or not inflation is temporary does not change the fact that the prices have already increased. If inflation dropped to 2% tomorrow the prices have still gone up. These are the prices people have to pay.

The only way prices would drop by 10% would be severe deflation, the likes of which have never, ever been seen in this country. To be honest, short of an unprecedented economic collapse across Europe, we won't see this.

So a wage increase is necessary to compensate workers for inflation which has already taken place (ie: prices that have gone up).

exitstageleft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506806#Comment_119506806

@Tonesjones, to address your concerns that tax payers* will have to pay more for the same services:

In simple terms, money this year is worth less than the same amount of money last year. So public sector workers, providers of said services, are being paid less, in real purchasing power, than they were last year.

According to your logic, should these workers then provide less services since they are more poorly remunerated this year?

*public sector workers are tax payers too.

Subzero3

Once one company or sector takes industrial action it will set a chain reaction across the country.

10% is the new 2%. People should not settle for anything less.

fritzelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119507390#Comment_119507390

The chain reaction is already starting

exitstageleft

To be honest, I'd be happy with 8% over the two years, or 7% if they backdate it to when the initial talks kicked off.

I do agree with the posters who point out that endless spending by the government will come back to bite us.

So, for me anyway, it's not really a case of public sector workers getting better pay (which is a whole other ball game) but rather just keeping the pay the same value as last year.

Subzero3

The usuall spiell from the gov/fda rep is accept x to keep x company here, keep jobs safe ect. That won't cut the mustard now. People have nothing to lose by going all in and laying down tools. The MNCs have made big profits and its time for the worker to stand up and get whats fair during a time when our wages are worth less and less.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506806#Comment_119506806

10% wouldn't actually cost 1.6 billion or close to it, but to explain how that works would be a bit pointless I'd guess. Although as someone who uses the term "circular economy" you might have a chance of grasping it.

Unions have turned down 5% - and rightly so. It'll have to be close to 10% over 2 years to get through in my opinion for a number of reasons.

Dr. Bre

Why Gov not get rid of the USC? This would help taxpayers

naughto

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119507476#Comment_119507476

It's making them to much money

AyeGer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119507390#Comment_119507390

15% would nearly be necessary now the way things are looking with regards to cost of living and inflation rises. 5% each year for 3 years.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119506967#Comment_119506967

How is it blindingly obvious because you say so? There is one example ongoing currently that proves my point and that is petrol at the pump its coming down due to the supply side issue being unclogged. I attached the link. There is also examples of it in the US. It only after coming in we need at least 12 months to see if it sticks or it comes down

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119507322#Comment_119507322

How is my understanding incorrect, do you think we cant have any deflation, we have had 3 periods of deflation in the last 15 years one was a rather large drop(over 4%) after the last recession and that is what we are heading into again the signs are there for a global recession (US already technically in one) Germany talking about shutting off electricity to certain companies over the winter due to the issue of gas supply and the UK is having a sh1tshow when it comes to inflation and finances (those 3 countries are our biggest consumers and suppliers of most goods and have more effect on Ireland's fortunes than any other country) and we will see a lot worse in the coming 12 months.

Its you and your brethren who refuse to accept that this hyper inflation has been proven to be linked to Covid and the war and once both are sorted we will see deflation not disinflation which is what your talking about. Wages in general are not keeping pace in the private sector regardless of what some think in here that they are all going gang busters. (1.2 million getting zero pay rises and there is going to be a blood bath of job losses in the near future) . So the question the government has to ask themselves is do they chase inflation and give you lot the pay rises which will make our financial position a lot worse in 2/3 years time. They will be giving a nice pay rise to you boyos as it suits themselves the government get it too and it will be a nice sideways "hospital pass" for the shiners when they get in.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119507459#Comment_119507459

Really if the government just give in and the tax payer is on the hook for more and if the winter is any way more severe that the predictions being made and there is no respite for the tax payer in general (already the third tax band has been talked down so that wont be happening). This IMO will be the death knell of FF/FG and there will be a GE early next year. As it will be seen as pandering to their own vested interests when they get this pay rise too. We have only seen the start of the current inflation/recession problems and we will see more price rises in energy as the winter kicks in as people will need more light and heat during the winter a lot of businesses will not be able to afford this and will hit the wall and its then that if a public sector union went out on strike there will be very little support from the general public. We pay more then enough in taxes to have a decent public service and what is delivered is a p1ss poor one in many areas.