Public Pay Talks - see mod warning post 4293

Gusser09

I'd be happy enough with 6.5% and the additional 1% in October that we are due from the last deal. Based on that I won't be striking either. That's 7.5% over 16 Months or so. What's not to like?

People who are calling for the deal to be dismissed out of hand. What exactly would you accept? There is no point talking about matching inflation. We can't do that as a country. It won't work.

The best we can now hope for in the budget is for reductions in various taxes and Vats too.

Shuffl_in

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119540981#Comment_119540981

11% over two years wouldn't be close to inflation.

We have an offer of 4% for this year.

We have an offer of 2.5% for next year.

We have to decide if both of those are sufficient.

Tonesjones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119540992#Comment_119540992

People saying private sector got way more already.

LegallyAbroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119540981#Comment_119540981

Could you please take your puerile posting elsewhere?

Thanks.

JeffKenna

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119540981#Comment_119540981

Davy's came out yesterday and predicted inflation at 13% so 11% won't even cover this year.

channelsurfer2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119540907#Comment_119540907

ah yes

Tonesjones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541015#Comment_119541015

OK.

bye

gandalfio

So to clarify, it's 4.25% this October and 4.25% in October 2023. Do I have that right?

CZ 453

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541072#Comment_119541072

Don't think so. 1% already for Oct prior to deal plus 6.5% spread over this year and next. So 7.5% going forward. Split the 7.5% then between this year and next. No detail on what lower paid workers are getting extra as well yet.

Gusser09

You can't chase inflation. When inflation eases and prices come down will we agree to pay cuts?

Let's get real here. We are looking at our pay being increased by 7.5% over 16 months. Not two years. And then there will have to be another pay deal in 2024 also.

Risoc

No.

People saying 8.5% are not only factoring in the 1% this October but also 1% paid last February under an existing agreement.

It's fair enough to consider the October 1% when thinking about the negotiations but if you're going back as far as February, you might aswell include an October 2021 payment. Smoke and mirrors.

Well, they can shove that deal where the sun doesn't shine. I'll be rejecting it.

I think they'll bring in a pay and recruitment freeze next year, (and that will include increments) and you can kiss goodbye to part 2 ever being paid.

Probably bring in a round of emergency financial measures to remove this pay "increase" at the same time. Its not like it hasn't happened before.

Anyone who accepts this is selling themselves, and the rest of the service, short.

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541107#Comment_119541107

Yes. True.

I see it as 7.5% over 16 months. Including the 1% in October. The new deal is 6.5% over 16 months.

gandalfio

Confused.com

6.5/2=3.25

Plus the 1% already agreed to come in October.

3.25 plus 1 = 4.25 increase in October no?

jaykay2

The Journal are saying that the additional 1.5% agreed today will be front loaded which would mean that including the 1% already due in October, that we would be looking at 5% this October and then 2.5% next October.

This is a very good deal in my opinion and the best we will get.

Doctor Jimbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541142#Comment_119541142

If that's accurate then I think it's a good deal too. Realistically we're not getting an increase to match inflation. 5% this year along with likely cost of living measures in the budget seems reasonable to me.

howiya

How quick can a ballot be arranged? Could impact how and when any increase is paid. October too soon for anything other than the already agreed 1%?

pc7

Does it need every union to agree for it to pass? Say INTO agree, Forsa say no, Siptu yes etc.?

exitstageleft

Gosh, why they have to make it so complicated is beyond me. My understanding is:

3% backdated to February (woohoo!)

1% February (already given)

1% in October (already agreed)

2% in March 2023

1.5% (or €750) October 2023

Total: 8.5%

Have I got that right? The backdated 3% is quite the sweetener.

Edited for correction.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541095#Comment_119541095

how many times can inflation be explained to people in one thread

pc7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541197#Comment_119541197

Where did you see this?

LegallyAbroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541121#Comment_119541121

Okay. So in your scenario we reject and what happens next?

We just do ourselves out of money or what?

oranreilly

So to clarify for anyone trying to work out what their salary would look like:

36,400 x 1.03 (October '22 3%) + 500 (1% or 500, the greater) = 37,992

(Correct me if I'm wrong, but following percentages will be worked out with the new figure, e.g. 37,992 x 1.02 as opposed to 36,400 x 1.02)

37,992 x 1.02 = 38,751 (March '23)

38,751 + 750 = 39,501 (October '23)

There will also be an increment in there at some point.

Timistry

No idea where the narrative is coming from that private sector workers have gotten big increases to match inflation. That is nonsense and only used as a negotiating tactic.

It will be acceptable IF there is a one off payment, in the budget, to get people through this emergency situation.

While I agree that one can and should not chase inflation, the government needs to get people over this hump.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119540104#Comment_119540104

This is down to 3 issues that have combined horribly to leave us where we are and once we give the public sector a pay rise we are chasing inflation.

1: We have too much money in circulation due to the ECB printing press working overtime and keeping the economies of Europe afloat throughout covid

2: During the same period we have a huge supply issued due to covid, Brexit and the war and an influx of immigrants to deal with as well.. Our little country got 30 Billion so you can imagine what some of the other bigger countries got.

3: We have seen an incredible increase in population to Europe due to the war in Ukraine.

So to break this down to numbers that are relatable. A bit of a subset analogy.

So before Covid and using a much smaller sample size for Ireland (keeping this stupid simple) and we had 8 employees (irish work force), 1 apple seller (irish businesses) , 2 employers (public and private sector).

So to baseline the apple seller has for the last number of years always had 10 apples to sell and the 8 employees earn 5 Euro. The cost of buying an apple is 1 Euro. The apple seller soon realizes that if 1 of the 8 people don't want a 2nd apple then supply is greater than the demand and if they drop the 1 Euro price point to 90 cent he will make more profit even if the unit price drops slightly and to make it more attractive for the 2 remaining apples to get sold instead of going bad. Deflation/steady inflation in effect. (what we have seen in the last number of years before covid)

So in the last couple of years the above snapshot has changed due to the 3 issues outlined above.

All of a sudden the apple seller could only produce 8 apples (supply issue) and we now have 12 employees looking (migration inwards to Ireland) to buy the apples. So there is a bit of a shock when 4 people will not get to buy an apple and as a result the apple seller now realizes that demand is a lot greater than supply and can increase the price from 1 Euro to 2 or 3 or even 4 Euros an Apple. The 4 people who didn't get an apple go back to their employer and complain they can now no longer afford to buy an apple and want a pay increase. So these 4 employees get the (akin to the public sector currently) pay increase from 5 Euro to 7 Euro and the next time around the numbers have changed and there are now only 7 apples (supply still decreasing) and now there are 15 employees (more immigration inward) trying to buy an apple, the 4 employees who got their pay rise will sure as hell get their apple this time around and can afford to pay 6 Euros now which is 1 Euro more than what the other 11 employees earn and it also means the other 11 employees are left with 3 apples between them. So 3 out of the 11 other employees who are still working on the lower wage will have to pay their full wage now to compete to get an apple. So what happens then? Well the 11 employees go their employer looking for a wage increase and they get put up to 9 Euro, next time around there are only 6 apples. So the new dynamic is 11 employees have 9 Euro to spend and 4 have 7 Euro to spend. So the apple seller sets the price point for 9 Euros. 6 of the employees who can afford to pay this will pay all 9 Euro for an apple and the other 9 get none. Rinse and repeat with regards to pay rises and increase in employees and number of apples dwindling, which is a snapshot of where we currently are.

If you want evidence of this.

1: Just look at food and energy prices

2: this thread where Public sector employees want more and more payrises numbers from 10% to 30% have been bandied around.

3: emigration inward figures to this country

What we will see soon is the end of the war and covid and the supply side issues will ease up.

So to further our snapshot of this in to our subset analogy.

The apple supplier is told to get more apples and the issues that had constraint the supply suddenly lifts and at some point there is enough apples to go around again (after the war in Ukraine and our supply issues are sorted from covid) but because the apple seller last got 9 Euros for an Apple he now believes that this is what they are worth and he leaves them at the same price point and the employees are used to paying 9 Euros for an apple wont blink an eye as they are used to paying this. So in effect inflation has been chased and instead of the unit price remaining at 1 Euro its gone to 9 Euros and at all points during the period where employees where being paid pay rises (inflation), someone in the system was not getting an apple anyways, so why chase the inflation. If the employer didn't give the pay rises to chase inflation the price of the apple would not have gone up.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541235#Comment_119541235

We go back to the table. And tell them to make a real offer, not an insulting one.

the-island-man

I will be voting to accept this. Agreed that it's no where near inflation but there's too much chatter about a recession. At the rate these negotiations have gone so far if it's turned down and industrial actions follows it could be another 6 months to a year before the parties are back around the negotiating table. If a recession arrives (if it has not already) between now and then we are goosed and may never get the pay increases.

Play it safe, take the money and live to fight another day.

Risoc

About the worst post I've seen on an internet forum anywhere.

LegallyAbroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119541290#Comment_119541290

So what's the percentage increase that would you accept and what probability would you put on the government offering that before, say, Christmas?