Right to a house?

riclad

I would presume most working people over 30

would buy a house if they could afford if it was

somewhere any way near where they work . Most people rent because they have no choice unless it's a council property

There's probably many reasons why building slowed down , my theory is governments plan maybe 4 years ahead . Builders were busy building hotels and offices or else they left Ireland after 2008. It's like the boiling frog meme. Prices went up but by bit House supply was falling, house prices went up every year. I don't know what a marquee car costs. I just remember apartments in dublin were always 130 to 150k in most areas after 2010.

One of the tasks of an adult is to look after your finances rent mortgage etc if you spend 10 minutes reading about it you will find house prices tend to rise in the long run if you think in terms of 20 to 30 years its cheaper

After 2008 alot of people were in negative equity , so the government was happy to see house prices rising . Landlords are leaving the sector due to the taxs, land Lords have to pay about 50 per cent tax, if a tenant stops paying rent it takes 12 months to get them evicted.

I listened to rte radio, person on the panel said Irish rents are among the highest in Europe along with London .

Jim2007

People need to stop this comparison with the the UK crack because all we have in common is the language and the legal structure. The UK per capita GDP is around 41k and Ireland is around 83k, you can’t expect similar prices with a 50% difference no matter how people try to argue otherwise - the gap is just too big.

When we have visitors from abroad come visit us here in Switzerland, the only ones who are not shocked by the prices are the Irish. But then Swiss GDP is only 3K higher than Ireland.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233260#Comment_119233260

I literally said they should be able to down size in the area they live so the answer is no I don't want them to move out of their community. I am not sure what crisis means to you but it doesn't matter how you get there it is something you deal with. We don't have an open door migration policy no matter how you like to say it. There are restrictions on who can migrate here outside of the EU. You basically have to show you have a skill we need. If migration is stopped I would get paid way more but then the companies wouldn't be able to work as they wouldn't have enough skilled staff. THe IT companies may not pay massive tax but my tax contributions and that of the immigrants taxes pay more than average so help the country in many ways.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119232165#Comment_119232165

...it depends what you mean by 'solving', such definitions are critical in debates? yes, there most certainly has always been serious problems in relation to housing, even during these decades, but its clearly obvious, financialisation has introduced even more complexities, and is now leading to wide scale global failures, in relation to supply and pricing, and other extremely complex social issues! this can be clearly seen in nearly all metrics now, i.e. its clearly failing, and dramatically so!

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233628#Comment_119233628

When was property and housing not finacialised? When did it start?

As far as I can see it always has been as in hundreds of years it just was in less hands.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233833#Comment_119233833

yea this is debatable, but id argue, modern financialisation in the Irish market truly began in the mid 90's, this is very evident when you look at private debt levels, as private debt, i.e. credit, becomes an even bigger part of markets, i.e. it increases, and significantly so, leading to a significant rise in overall prices....

Ireland Debt.jpg

Ush1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233848#Comment_119233848

Because households had two working adults so could get a bigger mortgage.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233869#Comment_119233869

chicken and egg, which came first? by encouraging this approach, we have created positive and negative feedback loops, its clearly obvious that pricing is spiraling out of control, largely due to the rapid increase in credit into our markets, again, this is currently occurring in most countries that have attempted the same approach! credit ultimately comes from the financial sectors, as this is in fact the primary reason for their existence, i.e. credit creation, now we have gotten to a level of private debt thats simply unsustainable, and has in fact become extremely unstable, and extremely dangerous, leading to frequent and serious crisis!

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233848#Comment_119233848

That really doesn't make for proof as pointed out there was a change to economic earning due to an increase of work forces and dual income households. How is it different from when few people owned the land and charged rent and borrowed on the land they owned. Previously it was heavily tied to the country and the elite. Long history of royalty bankrupting countries and causing wars over it or just to fund wars. Main objectives were to increase the land and "tax" payers.

What is actually different? It seems the rarity is actually when it wasn't finacialised which was mostly driven by WWI and WWII and the massive scale of destruction along with huge financial input for social need. The actual cost of similar social scale housing now is larger and we didn't have so much of the landlowners dying due to war and disease ( Spanish Flu).

You seem to be looking for a situation that was a blip and requires some drastic amount of death, money and land. In Ireland we sold our social housing as neoliberal decision to boost the powers of the population. Removing the right to buy on social housing would be a very unpopular political move as it helped so many but it is effectively giving free money away. We can't as a country afford it.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233938#Comment_119233938

...exactly, this is potentially where we re heading back to, whereby the majority of the ownership of assets, in particular related to property and land, becomes heavily concentrated, only this time the owners are larger businesses, corporations, institutions, such as financial institutions, i.e. banks, etc etc

yes, financialsation has become one of the main tools of such political ideologies, i.e. so called neoliberal ideologies, i.e. empower major sectors of the economy such as the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), disempower the political system, and the work force, and happy happy days!

its always important to remember, central banks can actually never truly run out of money, but there are limits to how much debt your economy can take, but we have become over reliant on the private sector money supply, i.e. the credit supply, whos main purpose has now become to inflate asset markets via speculation etc, this in turn has caused a rapid rise in private debt, of which is now playing a far more critical role in our economic crisis, including in creating them, i.e. 08!

the only way to counteract this is by becoming more reliant on public money supplies, i.e. public debt, and truly to start enacting wide scale debt forgiveness programs, particularly in the private domain, i.e. private debt, but the reality is, this is very unlikely to occur, so, we re stuck.....

we clearly need to ramp up the supply of public housing, but these properties should never be allowed to be sold into the private market, we must implement measures to protect such tenents, but also implement measures to protect potential buyers, and even sellers in the private market, none of that is easy to do, and i also suspect these measures may never occur, so again, we re stuck, in a rapidly deteriorating situation for most, if not all!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233869#Comment_119233869

If there is no shortage of an item then nobody will bid it up. Income will not factor. Shifting from single to dual incomes gets thrown out as an explanation regularly but it is not the answer.

Ush1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234123#Comment_119234123

People in the 90s were upwardly mobile as well. They just the same as now wanted to live in bigger nicer houses in nice areas so bidding up happened. People normally are taking the max amount a bank will lend them to get the best possible house. The amount the bank would lend them increased significantly ergo...

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234123#Comment_119234123

.....and this to becomes a default of such approaches, the entity we call 'the market' has determined that reducing supply will lead to an increase in financial outcomes, i.e. maximizing returns!

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234043#Comment_119234043

Except that is all overblown and not true. How much property is owned by private business compared to private home owners? People like to go on about rent only properties but they don't have much of the market at all last time i looked it was less than 2% of the rental market not even all housing.

Companies are not buying up existing houses and renting them they are developing property and providing accommodation that wouldn't exist. A few full purchases of entire building projects are 1 or 2 but people like to thing it is everything being built. Just isn't true

I will accept some people are talking about it as if it is the thin edge of a wedge but the problem with that it requires a very long time and the disappearance of existing housing stock.

Within the next 10+ years how much of the housing occupied by OAPs will come to the market? The building boom of the 70-80s are going to come back on the market at some time and the residents are dying and will continue to do so. Those houses are actually too big for many people to either afford or live in so the houses will be split up. See it on my own road with 5 houses already done. The same thing happened to the large Georgian houses in Dublin. This is a natural evolution of housing stock. Happen in all cities in the western world as they expand.

There are many things that can change and will change that people don't even consider. Society has dramatically changed and 3 bed houses don't suit modern needs. Lots of single people now compared to the past and they aren't becoming priests and nuns as they once would have. So much more to change and housing costs are just a factor. Looking back at parents and grandparents housing options only and ignoring the limited choices they had misses lots. WFH for many jobs will change the very nature of housing demands dramatically and we have to see what happens there.

Lets be clear the standard of living has dramatically improved even in my life time let alone my parents. Harking on about the good old days is and ignoring the improvements from then is convenient. In the old days if you had a child out of wedlock you had the child taken off you and possibly sold and put into a form of slavery. Now you get state aid and housing. In fact so is the father. I know a couple that had 2 kids together and broke up. She has a 3 bedroom house, one room for her and one for each child. He has a 3 bed house too as it is one room for him and one for each child because they have shared custody. That is a huge amount of extra supports that have costs than the good old days.

What do you want to happen? Do we reduce social welfare programs and only focus on better use to help more people or keep trying for the better standards? As I said there is technically only one person living next door to me in a 3 bed house with 2 careers changing over on days to another 2. Before that it was 4 adults and 3 children which wouldn't be allowed under social housing policies. You can't ignore the standards and practices that have a higher demand for social housing are not part of the issue.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234271#Comment_119234271

apologies, im very busy right now, so i ll try properly respond when i can, but we have convinced ourselves that we re increasing our ownership of assets, only that its truly becoming more concentrated, particularly via our financial systems, via credit/debt creation, theres sufficient evidence of this globally, including here in ireland, baring in mind, debtors only truly own an asset when all debts are fully paid, until this criteria is met, the assets are primarily the owners of creditors, until then, debtors have whats called 'a claim on the ownership' of such assets, but arent full owners!

Ush1

The funds own a tiny percentage of residential properties here and most of which wouldn't exist in the first place without them.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234360#Comment_119234360

....but the potential is now there, for them to gain access to more and more, as they have more abilities to do so, including wide scale state and other institutional protections

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234140#Comment_119234140

Its basic economics 101 supply V demand. There is still a lack of supply....in your example...a shortage of supply of good houses

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234294#Comment_119234294

I don't think anybody thinks we have increased our homeownership i thought it was common knowledge that we had the highest rate of homeownership in the world and that has decreased. It was inevitable that would change as we improved and came closer to European norms.

For a bank to reposes a house in Ireland is very difficult and one of the issues we have with banking competition and high interest rates. It is a bad play on words and financial terms to say the banks own your house until you have paid it off. If the house increases in value by 10% the bank have no entitlement to that as you are seen as the owner. You are playing very fast an loose terminology and common terms to make an argument that just is not how it is. You own your home and you have a debt is the reality you don't get to say the bank owns the house because they don't no matter how you look at it.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234387#Comment_119234387

As I explained it isn't because to get 50% of the housing market they would have to built a 100% of what exists already and nobody to be build anything else.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/investment-funds-are-becoming-bigger-property-players-in-dublin-suburbs-1.4558775

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40296650.html

Funds bought 57% of new homes in 2019

Investment funds bought over 5,800 homes in Dublin in 2019 at a cost of €2.4bn, with 57% of all new builds in the capital snapped up.

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119232165#Comment_119232165

That's not really true.

My sister married a Scotsman and they live in Glasgow and have two daughters finishing secondary school now.

I was asking her the other day what they are going to do when they finish Uni and her answer was buy apartments or houses. She says they are not expensive even in the city by comparison to Ireland or Dublin specifically so she has no concerns. I accept that Glasgow isnt London, Dublin or New York but it is a pretty major english speaking city where accommodation isnt out of reach (as long as you dont mind a lot of rain!).

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233342#Comment_119233342

The UK is absolutely relevant, our GDP figure is absolutely not equivalent to the UK due to corporation taxation differences.

If you look a median income however you will see we are almost EXACTLY the same as the UK, see for yourself - https://www.finfacts-blog.com/2019/04/irish-median-income-at-13th-in-europe.html

Bit cynical

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234475#Comment_119234475

This is a good thing if properly regulated.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234605#Comment_119234605

So your niece is going to become a property developer and landlord straight as she buys "houses"? There aren't many people who can buy a house straight out of college so where is she going to get this money? Glasgow is not a major English speaking city and is of course cheaper than Dublin. I had a look at property prices there and I am not seeing anything amazingly cheap but I would also need to understand the areas there to even vaguely compare Dublin prices to Glasgow. Then compare employment prospects which is a huge factor and we can be pretty sure Glasgow doesn't have anything close to the financial and IT sectors that Dublin has. So comparing the 2 is pretty silly to start with. Have you looked at our population distribution?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119233590#Comment_119233590

It would be fair to say we have as near to an open door approach as exists.

Certainly well past the level where affordable housing, social housing etc can be a sustainable thing or meet demand, as for a right to a home,lol.

To have that one would have to have one of the strictest borders in existence.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119235401#Comment_119235401

No it wouldn't be fair at all. Why do you think there is an open door policy is the question? You need to explain why you think this not just state it. There are rules of migration and EU membership how do you get to there is no migration control?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119235416#Comment_119235416

Re-read my post. I didn't say we have no control.

We have a large inward migration, same as any ultra free market economy.

It's certainly at a level that is incompatible with housing as a right, wage inflation, unions etc, increased public services.

Is your approach workable in a world where energy is no longer cheap, where borrowing is no longer cheap and business is operating in a more unstable world.

It's very different to the Reagan and Thatcher world now.

Ush1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234387#Comment_119234387

So they are needed, larger apartment blocks won't be built without their cash.

Danzy

At 250 Euro a cubic metre of n30 concrete, no one is going to be building anything.

Ush1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119234454#Comment_119234454

Supply is part of it but he asked about the rapid price increases and increased debt in the 90s, that was down to affordability not so much supply drying up. There could be huge left over supplies of Bentleys, but no average worker will still afford one. Same as the average worker in the 90s couldn't afford a house in Dalkey even if many were up for sale.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119235486#Comment_119235486

You said "near to an open door policy" to be 100% correct. Can you explain how you mean that and what is the proof of such an outlandish claim?

riclad

The uk economy is getting devastated by brexit, theres no major tech sector in glasgow, i would expect house prices to be cheaper there. the 3.5 lending rule was brought in to stabilize the banking sector, after the crash in 2008. its there for a reason ,do you think it would help you to buy a house if everyone could borrow 5 times their salary, no ,it would just make it easy for people to borrow more.take on excessive debt. it turns out bankers cannot be trusted to lend in a safe manner unless theres lending regulations in place.

the butcher

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119235233#Comment_119235233

You are not one bit cynical!

Bit cynical

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237086#Comment_119237086

Sure I am! I am cynical about various politicians opposing international investment in the housing sector in Ireland. I feel that it suits them to maintain a permanent crisis situation by maintaining a shortage of units being built.

I'm also cynical about the benefit of small amateur landlords who still dominate the rental market. While this situation persists, you will never have the sort of stable market where long-term rentals can occur as is the case in other countries.

Gant21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119235531#Comment_119235531

Where are you pulling yourself that figure from?

riclad

I see a problem in that investors are competing with the public to buy new houses, this puts up house prices , investors can pay low taxs versus small Irish landlords. I don't think any politicans want the present housing crisis to continue , they have friends and family children who will need somewhere to live in the future. This is a very negative cynical view of Politicans. Ordinary workers can't compete with billion dollar corporations.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237344#Comment_119237344

Home ownership is and should be the goal. Ireland did foreign ownership of its property before. Foreign ownership is a terrible idea.

Once upon a time the home ownership rate was something western governments tried to boost for many well known reasons. It benefited society.

As mentioned already it's all about profit and rent seeking. Accommodation costs are a huge take from our wages. Increasing foreign ownership is suicide for an economy because it diverts that money outside of the economy. How blind can you be not to see that. At least with irish landlords the Money has more of a chance to cycle through the irish economy. Nevertheless ownership is key rather than have someone pay for a lifetime when they could have bought and had no payments in retirement

If you are a political hack or a hack for a vulture fund at least disclose it.

There is no reason for an irish person to take a positive position on a vulture fund unless you have a kickback or your head is full of moss, rocks or fungus

y0ssar1an22

does everyone have a right to a house?

if so, happy days. more kids, more houses.

there needs to a serious discussion about the welfare state here judging by evidence on here.

Bit cynical

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237488#Comment_119237488

Not very good arguing in your post, I'm afraid. I'm not against Irish ownership. The problem is small amateur landlords dominating the rental system here.

Nor am I against home ownership. What I'm against is what amounts to encouraging home ownership through making the alternative rental option so bad.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237500#Comment_119237500

You are basically in favour of monopolies/oligopolies. During a period of shortage. Well done.

Bit cynical

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237508#Comment_119237508

Nope. I'm afraid you are wrong again. I'm in favour of regulated corporate ownership as an alternative to private amateur landlords as a means of increasing rental supply.

Cartels do not increase supply, they maximise profit whatever way suits them.

Saying "regulated" is all well and good but how has the regulation of landlords been so far. If we can't regulate it properly why would a monopoly be any better. If we could improve regulation then why encourage monopolies?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237509#Comment_119237509

Regulated ya where have we heard that before.🤔🤔 Let me see.

Electricity, much cheaper since🤣

Telecoms 50/50

Housing ya made it cheaper too

Ber certs

PSRA do not try to get a house alarm fitted.

All regulations dose is add cost to the end user in Ireland.

In another property thread there is an article about the way investment funds too over property in Berlin after the fall of the wall. It's has jacked up prices. They left building conditions deteriorate, evicted tenants for a large refurb and upped the price of rent 4-6 fold after, and then continued rising them.

There is no such thing as a benevolent landlord, they are all there for a profit. The door has shut on your theory, when it was first suggested the present outcome was foretold on Boards 6-8 years ago.

Bit cynical

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237939#Comment_119237939

I read the article about Berlin and sure there are problems there. However traditionally Germany has had a much better rental market than Ireland. It is not uncommon for families to rent the same place for twenty to thirty years sometimes into retirement.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119235508#Comment_119235508

yes they are indeed needed, but we must have our ducks in a row before allowing them into our markets, we cannot default to our usual position of allowing them to dictate and dominate our markets, i.e. there must be strict conditions attached to public agreements, such as no excess profits etc, this is one of the reasons why our approaches to date have completely failed!

Bit cynical

We have about 70% owner occupied homes here in Ireland. Not as high as Romania with over 90% but much higher than Germany, Austria or Switzerland with about 50%. Over time, I would see Ireland moving gradually towards the German model and away from Romania but, as we have seen, there's going to be a lot of (often irrational) resistance to that.

2ndcoming

Great, another Frank Grimes thread on housing, just what Boards needed.

Viscount Aggro

We live in a society that not only encourages weakness, it rewards it.

BattleCorp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119237500#Comment_119237500

Genuine question. Why are small time amateur landlords a problem?

Surely we need the small time amateur landlords alongside the big property ownership companies?

What's to be gained by squeezing out the small time amateur landlord? Surely that will reduce supply further?