Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans in OP**

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740491#Comment_121740491

If you have this little evidence on your "prime suspect", maybe you have the wrong suspect.

There are murders where there are no suspects at all, where they get away with it clean.

That should give pause to saying it is the party we have some (poor) evidence on.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740219#Comment_121740219

That the vehicle was or wasn't checked doesn't prove anything though. All it proves is that the gardai earliest on the scene were not experts in crime scene preservation. We know this. The garda with crime scene preservation expertise did not arrive until 12 noon.

However, to judge West Cork rural gardai of the mid 1990s through a contemporary lens is not really useful. We know gardai of the era were incompetent. They weren't even aware they were being recorded for example.

So yes incompetence yes, deliberate turning a blind eye, unlikely.

Feels like this thread has become bogged down in what the neighbours did or didn't do.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740467#Comment_121740467

Quite right.

If the same value standards are applied to the evidence implicating Alfie and Shirley as those pointing at Bailey, then Alfie and Shirley stand out head and shoulders above him. There's no doubt about that.

And that's not accusing AL and SF....its just a direct comparison of the circumstantial evidence. If the evidence against Alfie and his partner is weak, the evidence against Bailey is significantly weaker.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740575#Comment_121740575

In your eyes. Not shared by a lot of people.

Can you through the circumstantial evidence that makes them strong suspects again, in your eyes?

Alfie, was he known for having a violent temper or being violent?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740612#Comment_121740612

Alfie had no real independent alibi, if Shirley didn't hear the violent murder then she doesn't know what Alfie could have gotten up to.

If we can create a speculative motive for Bailey we can create one with more basis for Alfie, frictions of neighbours, who shopped Alfie to the Guards, the rumours about who was using the bath.

Alfie had a wound on his hand.

Against that, if the murder weapon was the cavity block wielded as a weapon, was Alfie strong enough to do that? Let's say it is doubtful but not clear if it rules him out entirely.

But then, if the block was taken from Sophie's pump house to prop open the gate before the murder, who moved it and how? How was Alfie managing the gate then?

tomhammer..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740560#Comment_121740560

"Likely " is what I'm saying and have consistently said

We're not dealing with proof of guilt on this thread

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740640#Comment_121740640

Likeliest or likely? They are not the same.

I think on balance of probabilities Bailey is likely to be innocent, regardless of whether he is the 'likeliest'.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740574#Comment_121740574

I agree that it doesn't prove anything. And that it is more indicative of Garda incompetence than anything else.

However I am questioning why a run to the dump should be a priority for a person immediately after encountering a brutally battered corpse.

And the Garda incompetence, not only the allowing of the removal of the car and contents, but the subsequent litany of screw ups, evidence tampering and inappropriate behaviour leads one to ask "cock-up or conspiracy"?

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740638#Comment_121740638

OK i see your MO here.

You make a statement. Somoene completely refutes what you say, such as the gate didn't actually need a block to keep it open. The gardai interviewed Alfie in the days afterwards, accepted his explanation of a cut. But armchair detective 26 years later knows better. Then alleges some conspiracy. Then throws in something else to muddy the water.

Then rinses, washes, repeats every couple of pages, hoping people will forget the last time.

How many wild theories have you in your locker out of interest?

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740648#Comment_121740648

Can you just stick to provable facts, rather than spurious allegations?

Here's some examples of proveable facts.

1. Ian Bailey gave a false alibi in his first statement to gardai
2. Ian Bailey told a court case in 2014 he had a premonition of something bad happening on Hunts Hill. In subsequent interviews with RTE he denied ever having a premonition
3. Ian Bailey repeatedly claimed to have carried out the murder
4. Ian Bailey was witnessed burning a bonfire in the days soon after the murder

I'm sure there are others.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740612#Comment_121740612

1) Alfie and Shirley had an association with Sophie no question. Bailey did not.

2) Alfie and Shirley were present at the crime scene. At the time of the murder. There is no evidence that Bailey was. In fact, if the murder happened in the morning, then that virtually rules Bailey out, whereas whether it was late night or morning, AL and SF were there. Even you must accept that someone who was definitely present at a crime is more likely to be involved than someone who was not.

3) Alfie was in dispute with Sophie over a number of issues and therefore had plausible motive. Bailey had no plausible motive.

4) Alfie had a wounded hand.

5) Alfie and Shirley claimed to have seennothing and heard nothing of a violent and prolonged attack a matter of yards from their house in an otherwise silent area.

6) Shirley took the car and contents to the dump very shortly after the discovery.

Once again, I'm not accusing Alfie or Shirley. I'm demonstrating that in terms of circumstantial evidence, that which implicate Bailey pales into insignificance in comparison.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740690#Comment_121740690

All these allegations have been thoroughly discussed in previous posts.

In my opinion, unless Bailey can be shown to have actually known Sophie (i.e. had an association with her) be placed at the scene, or to have had a plausible motive, then they are nothing more than desperate attempts by the Gardai to create evidence against him.

And the DPP on more than one occasion comprehensively demolished them.

He might have done it. Its a valid theory. But its not supported by the evidence up to now.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740719#Comment_121740719

Gardai looked at all this and decided they had nothing to answer and rightly so.

Again everything you say there is either weak or open to contention or is meaningless.

1. They had an association with her, so did many people. Of itself its meaningless
2. They were present at the crimescene at the time of the murder? Sorry, where is the proof for this? Crime scene was down at the gate a couple hundred yards from their house.
3. In dispute? Oddessy mentioned the bath. Alfie had not access to the house for 3 years as the locks were changed. All the other disputes are utter garbage and you know it. No evidence of anything untoward, no threats, no legal action mentioned at any stage.
4. Wounded hand accounted for.
5. The murder was carried out down at the gate a couple hundred yards from their house.
6. Yes she did.

So again, nope, nothing there remotely indicating they had anything to do with it, and that's leaving aside whether you think Bailey did it or not.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740654#Comment_121740654

Your points about Shirley going to the dump and what the logical thing to do was 'completely refuted' (your phrasing not mine) multiple times on the thread by different posters. Yet you still posted today that it was the logical thing to do, without regard to the points previously out to you ... so read your own post back to yourself.

So where was the question about the block and the gate 'completely' refuted? Explanations have been offered that the gate may not need a block, they may well be true, but that is not the same as being completely refuted.

But if you have irrefutable proof the block was still on the pump house before the murder and was not at the gate? Post it then if you have it.

If it is true, and the block was at the pump house, it begs the question of the damage to the pump house. Do we really suppose Bailey did that just to get at a particular concrete block, and how could he know the block would be loose and usable as a weapon?

Where is the crayola drawing of Alfie's wound then if the Guards interviewed him? They 'accepted' a lot. That's the point. They accepted stuff from Alfie and others they wouldn't accept from Bailey.

Positing Alfie as the murderer - by way of comparison with claims that Bailey is the 'likely' murderer - is no wilder than the scenario outlined by AGS for Bailey to be the murderer. That's the point. And it is different to making a specific allegation that Alfie is the murderer.

tobefrank321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740803#Comment_121740803

There was a warning on this thread or the other from a mod to only talk about Bailey as a suspect, and not to make unfounded allegations against other named people, some of whom are alive, based on spurious and unprovable allegations.

I've reported a number of your posts and won't be bothering with this thread while you are making very serious allegations up to murder against those named individuals.

Bailey is now deceased and when discussing him most of us have talked about facts and allegations already in the public domain. We have stuck to known facts of the case.

odyssey06

Alfie Lyons is deceased, as are other alternative suspects named on this thread such as Karl Heinz Wolney and Daniel Toscan du Plantier.

If posters are going to claim that Bailey is the likeliest suspect or prime suspect, that opens up the debate to consider alternative suspects. Even if only by way of assessing how 'likely' they are without actually making any implication of guilt on their part.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740719#Comment_121740719

that which implicate Bailey pales into insignificance in comparison.

But to any reasonable viewing it doesn't.

Whether someone knew Sophie or not is not any indication of anything, and even if it was, Bailey's knowing her or not was ambiguous.

The cut on the hand was explained to the satisfaction of the Gardai.

And if you want to bring up the cut on Alfie's hand I'll bring up Bailey's scratches and cut on his forehead.

Being close to the crime scene is also an indication of nothing, as is not hearing anything.

Go 100 yards from your home in the middle of the night with everyone asleep, make a racket and see how many wake and investigate, id say very little.

It's some escalation from a access dispute to full on murder, and there is no indication that Alfie was violent.

Bailey on the other hand beat his partner so hard that she needed hospitalization more than once, and always claimed that such beatings were "not premeditated', i.e. he lost it.

As for the dump we have no idea how much or how little that car was searched before it left.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740798#Comment_121740798

I think your missing the point.

I repeat that I am not accusing AL/SF. I am simply comparing the circumstantial evidence insofar as it relates to them and Bailey.

The fact that they were associated with Sophie and Bailey was not, is relevant in that, statistically, murder victims are more likley to be associated with their assailants than not.

They were present at the crime scene within yards certainly. Whereas there is nothing placing Bailey anywhere near it. A murderer being at the scene is clearly a basic requirement.

Alfie had ongoing disputes with Sophie over a number of issues, the use of her bath being just one. The opening/closing of the gate being another, the ownership of the shed on her land and the right of way to and from it being another. There was also the question of who had reported Alfie to the Gardai relating to his drug production activities. (Sophie asked Jo Hellen to keep newspaper cut outs regarding the case for her).

Alfie's wounded hand carries at least as much evidential value a Bailey's scratches...also accounted for.

Regardless of whether the murder happened at the gate or elsewhere in her garden, a lengthy and vicious attack, which had to involve shouting, screaming etc would certainly be audible over that distance on a still and silent night/morning.

So, purely based on what we know for certain, more points towards AL and SF than in the other direction.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740853#Comment_121740853

It wasn’t on this thread and warnings on others bare no relevance.

Leave the modding to the mods.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740888#Comment_121740888

Once again (sigh) I'm not accusing Alfie and Shirley, I'm comparing the known circumstantial evidence.

And association with the victime is relevant. Most assailants and victims are assocaited.

The cut on Alfies hand is of equal evidential value to Baileys scratches.

Being at the crime scene makes one more likely to be involved than a person who is not.

I don't agree at all with your point regarding the noise created by the attack. In fact, for me, it raises the most important question. Its very strange that such a violent episode, on a quiet night, was not heard a matter of yards away.

The escalation of inter- neighbour disputes has resulted in fatal attacks on countless occasions...sometimes over something as trivial as a parking space.

Bailey's domestic violence is, of course, deplorable, but not evidence. About 25% of violent attacks reported last year were domestic in nature.

Regardless of the extent of the search...the vehicle should have been seized and taken to a forensic laboratory. But again, the question is why was a trip to the dump a priority in the circumstance ?

tomhammer..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740646#Comment_121740646

Likeliest to be the killer

Likely to have killed her

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740888#Comment_121740888

I've seen lots of posters claim Bailey possibly knowing Sophie in the list of evidence against him.

Same for living close to the crime scene \ opportunity to get to it.

As for Bailey's scratches I'll see you Alfie's wound.

Can you show us the posts where you challenged them for listing that in the evidence against Bailey? You can't can you?

Which is exactly the point being made.

To any reasonable viewing there is no positive evidence implicating Bailey in this murder.

Do you want to list all the people in the area with records of violence? Are they murderers? It's not positive proof implicating you in another crime.

tomhammer..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740777#Comment_121740777

There's evidence to suggest he knew her

Alfie Leo and the Giraud(?) I believe but not sure there was more than that

Motive isn't relevant as the theory is that the killing wasn't planned therefore the killer had no motive to kill her before the encounter

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741150#Comment_121741150

The evidence that he knew her is extremely questionable.

Alfie was 90% sure he introduced them. That does not constitute an association.

Motive is absolutely key. Because if Baily had a motive, the only plausible one is sex. And there is no evidence of a sexual element to the attack.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741150#Comment_121741150

So Bailey had no motive? I agree.

And yet multiple times a motive has been alleged against Bailey on this thread. Next time such a motive is listed in evidence against Bailey I trust you will declare it irrelevent.

saabsaab

The weather at the time was clear, dry with wind ENE 15-25 mph a fresh breeze, 3-5 Celcius so cold but no frost and a full moon.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741236#Comment_121741236

Not sure if I have the layout right ... but possibly an ENE would carry noise from the direction of the gate away from the Lyons property.

tomhammer..

Motive would have been some sort of encounter

Can't be ruled in or out

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741252#Comment_121741252

Probably to an extent. Then again on a cold night sounds can carry anyway.

chooseusername

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741252#Comment_121741252

Shirley screamed for Alfie, then ran back to the car and leaned on the horn. Alfie didn’t hear anything!