Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans in OP**

Xander10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473121#Comment_120473121

Maybe he had a bit more interaction with Sophie's than a sighting across a Spar. He wouldn't be going over to her house in daylight.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473253#Comment_120473253

So lock up every journalist who turns up at a crime scene if that is your definition of 'acting strangely'.

What utter nonsense.

If he didn't turn up it would have been said, wasn't it strange the journalist in the area didn't turn up.

It's utterly meaningless.

Killers do and don't turn up at the scene. In and of itself it adds nothing.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473273#Comment_120473273

I didn't say he was the most likely suspect. You asked for those other than Bailey who had similar circumstantial evidence against them.

And Alfie did.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473206#Comment_120473206

Were they? So why didn't they arrest him?

You are obviously unable to show that it was "his" theory, and not the accusation AGS put to Bailey -> so you're just making stuff up now.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473327#Comment_120473327

On top of the other things I've listed, it adds to his guilt in my eyes. There are many cases of other cases where this has happened.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473339#Comment_120473339

No he didn't as far as I'm aware? Violence against women? Saying he did it? Suspicious marks and fires etc. And his health rules him out in my view.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473348#Comment_120473348

Are you saying Bailey didn't say the above or what are you getting at? AGS didn't make the statement, Bailey did, he came up with the theory. He made the statement above a few days after the murder don't forget.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473392#Comment_120473392

And many cases where it didn't happen. Yet that doesn't reduce his likelihood of guilt.

The 'normal' thing for Ian Bailey to do, if he was innocent, was to turn up at the scene in search of a story.

So your view on it is plainly just confirmation bias without real foundation.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473414#Comment_120473414

Added to everything else it makes him the most likely suspect in my opinion. That's all I've said. His actions, words, behaviour, admittances and the theory that came from his mouth points the finger in his direction. It's not a conspiracy against him. Doesn't mean he did it but he's top of the list of suspects.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473399#Comment_120473399

Alfie knew Shirley. Bailey had no known association with her.

Alfie was at the scene of the crime. There is no evidence whatsover placing Bailey there.

Alfie had a bandaged hand the morning of the murder.

Alfie had an ongoing dispute with Sophie. Possible motive. Bailey had no motive.

Despite a prolonged attack , yards from their door, neither Alfie nor Shirley saw or heard anything.

Shirley drove to the dump on the morning of the murder.

All the above is circumstantial evidence against Alfie. I don't think he did it either, but there is more "circumstantial evidence" pointing his way than Bailey's.

EmmetSpiceland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473339#Comment_120473339

What was Alfie’s health like at the time? I’ve heard it said it would be laughable for him to have lifted a block above his head but would that really have been too much for him? It makes him sound incredible feeble.

Was there a party in the Lyons’ house that night? If so how long did it go on? Or who the guests were?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473412#Comment_120473412

And when did Bill Fuller make this allegation?

It's a paraphrase of the AGS version of events against Bailey.

I doubt Bailey said it, but even if he did say it, what is supposed to be incriminating about it?

Mr Fuller said he visited Mr Bailey in the days following the murder to tell him about rumours circulating in the area that he was responsible for the death of Ms Toscan du Plantier.

So what were these 'rumours'? I think you'll find they are a version of this same scenario.

And Bailey could have been repeating it back to Fuller but putting Fuller into the scenario.

So it is meaningless to talk of it as Bailey's "theory".

Even though we don't even really know if he said it OR if that's how the murder even actually occurred, you think it implicates him somehow.

This is confirmation bias writ large.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473464#Comment_120473464

I don't know the answer to those questions. And as I said, I don't believe Alfie was the killer.

My point is this: If the circumstantial evidence is the sole metric, then Alfie is more suspect than Bailey.

FishOnABike

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473432#Comment_120473432

Cui bono? In most cases the person responsible already has a close connection to their victim.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473439#Comment_120473439

But all of that is trumped by Alfie's health ruling him out. As well as having no history of violence. On the other hand, Bailey has the violent history, a motive that came from his own mouth along with the long list of circumstantial evidence already mentioned.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473552#Comment_120473552

...all of which the DPP has decided doesn't prove anything against him.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473478#Comment_120473478

Again, you're picking and choosing what you want to believe. We shouldn't believe Bill Fuller now but if he said something in favour of Bailey, then you'd believe him. So this was Bailey's theory, he came up with it and it is entirely plausible. In fact, it's the most plausible theory out there. And was it also the AGS of other witnesses putting words in Bailey's mouth when he broke down crying and kept saying he did it and went too far?

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473517#Comment_120473517

That's true but we don't even know for sure what connection Bailey had with Sophie. There's major doubt over his claims of never having met her.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473558#Comment_120473558

Again, we're not in a court of law here. I'm giving my opinion based on the facts we do know. It points towards Bailey. That's my view. And trying to claim it's a big conspiracy against him just doesn't wash.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473563#Comment_120473563

Nope, it's just confirmation bias. You have no idea if the murder actually was carried out this way or with that motive. You are seeking evidence to support it rather than taking a step back and saying does this get us closer to the truth.

It's not a 'plausible' theory. It may be how it happened but it is unlikely as an explanation for murder.

So Bailey said he did "it". Except what "it" was was never said. Latching onto that as evidence towards murder is against just confirmation bias.

Bill Fuller is a highly suspect witness and as explained the statement in and of itself objectively is not positive evidence against Bailey.

This Bill Fuller?

On the 20 February 1997 Bill Fuller, his partner and child had gone to the causeway at Kealfadda Bridge in order to pursue his own investigation of the murder. He was with his wife and child. He saw a man whom he thought to be Bailey and this caused them to run away in blind panic believing the man had seen them. They ran a considerable distance until they reached Toormore Beach where they ran along a lane way which led out onto the roadway to Goleen. Screaming and roaring they ran in front of the first car to approach them.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473552#Comment_120473552

I think you're missing my point Musicrules.

If the circumstial evidence - that which is in the public domain - is sufficient to hang Bailey, then it is also sufficient to hang Alfie (more so, in fact). The value of the circumstantial evidence against Bailey was best put by Eamon Barnes who described the entire investigaton as "thoroughly flawed and prejudiced"

I think neither are guilty. Violent histories are not particulary unusual in West Cork, or sadly, anywhere else. And Bruno Carbonnet had already attacked Sophie at least once.

Bailey had no motive. Some others did.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473174#Comment_120473174

Looking purely at the behaviour of the Garda at that time I would suggest a large part of their motivation was to cover something up, to collude and to frame somebody, rather than getting to the bottom of this with facts. Bailey was an easy choice for them. The hated Englishman in Ireland. Perfect picture.

There was often speculation that the murderer was a Guard from Bantry and his motive was described as sexual. I would never rule that possibly out.

Or the drug trafficking theory, lot's of open possibilities as well, plus maybe the Guards being in on it, - also some evidence pointing that way. After all, it was them who supplied drugs to one transient to get close to Bailey.

Or suppose it was the husband wanting to avoid a costly divorce. If the Guards were busy trying to frame Bailey, the hired killer by the husband had an easy game.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473558#Comment_120473558

Not quite....they decided that the evidence was so weak, it didn't even merit testing in a court of law.

EmmetSpiceland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473552#Comment_120473552

How was his health? Was he pretty much confined to his bed or a chair? What if someone was with him?

What’s more likely, a violent assault after a, protracted, land dispute or a drunk oddball trekking over miles on the off chance he might get a ride when he doesn’t even know if his intended is there?

Like with Gussie, I don’t think Alfie, or Shirley, did it but the evidence and theories against Bailey are weak. Throw in the Garda mismanagement and the whole thing stinks even more.

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473605#Comment_120473605

Of course I have no idea that the murder was carried out this way. Only the murderer does. I think Bailey is the main suspect based on the evidence and based on his statements. They were not made up. And why wouldn't Bill Fuller be running away from who he thought was Bailey? Bailey made his spar statement to him soon after the murder so it would make sense that he was scared of him. The statement you quoted backs him up!

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473610#Comment_120473610

You're missing the point. Alfie's health ruled him out. Nothing ruled Bailey out and the circumstantial evidence against him was far more than that against Alfie. Bailey stated his own motive, he said it to Bill Fuller!

Musicrules

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473647#Comment_120473647

Everything is unlikely when you think about it. How many murders are there in Ireland? This was a very strange occurrence so saying something is unlikely is just stating the obvious. We have no evidence, all we can do is guess what happened based on what we've read. Alfie's health was bad based on that. Lifting a block wasn't something he was capable of.

If Bailey's statement that he saw her in Spar is true, then he knew she was there and the rest of his statement explains what happened then. The Gardaí 100% mismanaged this case but that might be how Bailey got away with it.

saabsaab

I don't know who did it but the whole scene may have been staged or interfered with.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473663#Comment_120473663

Then why wasn't all these other people running away from the mere sight of Bailey?

How long has Fuller had this supposed, barely incriminating piece of knowledge on Bailey, and only decided to freak out about it now.

Carrying out your own murder investigations, with a small child present?

And he thought what he had was worth Bailey attacking or killing him for in broad daylight with other witnesses about???

Pull the other one.

His antics were absolute nonsense.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473675#Comment_120473675

No Alfies health did not "rule him out".

That is just a lazy assertion on your part. He may have been capable-he may not.

And I'm not saying Bailey is ruled out. I'm saying the circumstantial evidence against him is weak. And compared to that against Alfie, very weak.

Your suggesting that Sophie was murdered by someone who had no association with her, had no motive, was not ( as far as evidence is concerned) at the scene and trekked several miles, in the middle of the night to murder her without reason.

Whilst "ruling out" someone who knew her well, was in a fractious and ongoing dispute with her, was definitely at the scene when the crime was actually committed, had a hand injury consistent with the circumstances of the attack, claimed to have seen and heard nothing, and sent his wife to the dump with a car load on the morning after.

Nonsense.