Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans lifted - see OP**

chooseusername

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123094748#Comment_123094748

They’re waiting to see if Jim Sheridan solves it for them, and Sheridan is waiting for them to go first.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123094748#Comment_123094748

Hollywood would most likely imply Bailey as the killer. He planned murdering Sophie years ahead, out of sexual frustration, lust of beating up another woman, and the killer could only have been a local as the house was so remote.

jesuisjuste

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123094709#Comment_123094709

Finding any DNA in and of itself is a major step in the right direction, regardless whether it can be explained by the individual or not. Remember they didn't find anyone's DNA previously, on the briars, rocks, cavity block etc.

Now depending on who they find, it may be easy to explain or not. For example if they found a profile of Alfie, then he could likely be explained if it was touch DNA on the gate, or rocks surrounding it. If the same spots picked up (for example) a profile of an aquaintence of Sophie, who had claimed to never have even been to Ireland, that would open up a huge line of enquiry, not easy to explain. Both profiles would have to have a reference of course, all hypothetical.

In reality there may be a hit on something, they may find multiple hits, perhaps of various people, and just like going through a normal investigation of alibis and suspects, any and all DNA could be gone through and eliminated one-by-one.

One thing is for sure, blood mixed with blood would be pretty much impossible to explain away, by anybody.

Day Lewin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123094709#Comment_123094709

Sophie was wearing night-clothes - the kind you're still wearing for a while when you first get up. Pyjamas, a dressing-gown, and her comfy shoes that she used to wear like slippers on the cold floor.

Any DNA found on these would have to belong to someone quite intimate, (her husband, her son or her boyfriend) - who else gets to hug a person who is déshabillée?

And once you eliminate the obvious close contacts, anyone else would need to have a damn good explanation for why their DNA is found on the clothing in which a woman was murdered.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123096065#Comment_123096065

Good points.

Suppose they find unknown DNA, how far would they go? Get samples of the surviving relatives of that Guard from Bantry, if nothing else they have on file matches? Did that German musician have surviving relatives?

Day Lewin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123096249#Comment_123096249

This is a good question, because not everyone's DNA is on file, of course.

However, I believe they can tell the probable nationality of a person. So a German or a Frenchman or a Romanian (for example) would probably show up. Maybe even an English or an Irish person, though these must be very much mingled over the centuries.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123096312#Comment_123096312

To a certain degree yes, if you compare with the current population living in some other country.

As far as I know all the usual characters did supply DNA samples, Bailey volunteered even. It'll be interesting if they find something on somebody they have on file, or some foreigner.

If German it would point to Karl Heinz Wolney, French would be interesting, either that other guy who also left soon after, or possibly somebody among her husband's circle of friends…..

And then there is the possibility DNA is on her clothes from somebody in France, somebody she was intimate before departure, not having washed the clothes, etc… All not impossible.

jesuisjuste

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123096341#Comment_123096341

If the sample is mixed with her blood, it's a no-brainer. If it's Bailey, the work is done. If it is someone else, you look at the available samples and if you can't get a match, you just go down the list of suspects one-by-one, or their living family members and ask for a sample. Almost all will know the implications in this day and age. The perpetrator will likely be the only one to refuse.

The funny thing is, they already have a sample that they didn't carry out the above process with. Somebody chose not to follow, for whatever reason, we don't know.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123096808#Comment_123096808

That is if the perpetrator is still alive. Alfie had no children we know of? But possibly extended family? How about that Guard from Bantry? He does have extended family. The Gards will hardly look for one of their own…..

Do we know how many already gave DNA samples?

Suppose they match it to Bailey, how would Jules look? They'd probably treat her badly is such a rural community.

Day Lewin

"The funny thing is, they already have a sample that they didn't carry out the above process with. Somebody chose not to follow, for whatever reason, we don't know."

Are you referring to the unidentified male DNA found on Sophie's boot?

I bet it's outlined in fluorescent red crayon for the FBI to take a very, VERY close look at!

chooseusername

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123096808#Comment_123096808

The problem with the DNA is, if unidentified DNA is found now that could implicate someone in the murder there is nothing to compare it to. As far as I know the only DNA gathered at the time was Bailey's blood sample. Which had more or less run out from various testing over the years. The cold case team had to retrieve some more from his flat. So if new DNA is found, a sweep will have to be done like was done in the Kerry Babie's case.

Cut hair samples were taken shortly after the murder from Bailey and Jules, Sally and Leo Bolger, Wollney and Sweeney and some others. I don't know if they are going to be any use after all this time. I'd imagine the hair was taken to see if there was a match to the hair found in Sophie's hand, which was eventually found to be Sophie's own hair.

jesuisjuste

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123097293#Comment_123097293

I agree, however if there was blood DNA found from an unknown person, that would essentially exonerate Bailey, and cause a massive focus to be put back on the case. There would be huge pressure for them to find the true perpetrator, and everyone in the area would be likely to participate. All of this information coming out though would be managed by the gardai, as whatever happens they don't want to make themselves look bad of course, so I would expect slow and steady, rather than a big blow up, similar to what happened when they found the original unknown DNA.

chooseusername

Kay Reynolds, Ian Bailey's sister on what the last 28 years were like for her and her family-

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-style/people/2025/01/25/my-brother-ian-bailey-pleaded-his-case-and-begged-me-to-keep-in-touch-and-i-did/

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123097636#Comment_123097636

I am not certain of that.

I suppose that if they find DNA by a known or unknown person it would be necessary to establish that this DNA sample could only and exclusively have gotten on Sophie and Sophie's clothes during the act of the actual murder. Only then you can say with a high amount of security and beyond reasonable doubt that this could only have been left by the killer.

It would be clear if it was either Bailey's or Alfie's DNA, - Bailey she apparently never met, and Alfie she didn't like as a neighbour, so both men's DNA would be totally out of place on her clothes. Same would be Karl Heinz Wolney as well as Leo Bolger. Finbarr Helens or Josie would probably be different discussion, as they had access to the house, met her and even though rather unlikely but they could have come in some other form of contact with her clothes.

And then there is the problem that most suspects are already dead when it would possibly come to a trial. Any kind of anectotal evidence is even less than hearsay in a court room. ( such as seeing a man loitering somewhere, or someobdy sitting in the car besides Sophie, or somebody returning a rental car with blood stains ) It's been nearly 30 years now.

J Mysterio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123096065#Comment_123096065

I don't think she was wearing comfy shoes, I think she was wearing lace up boots.

Caquas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123097833#Comment_123097833

A terrible situation for Bailey's parents and sister, though not to be compared to the sufferings of Sophie's family. Innocent until proven guilty but he couldn't go to his mother's funeral because of the European Arrest Warrant.

Interesting that she claims he was blacklisted as a journalist for working with the Sunday Times during the Wapping strike - a largely forgotten dispute but a turning point for the British media and for Rupert Murdoch. I suspect his alcoholism was a bigger factor or, to be exact, his behavior while drunk. Being an alcoholic was practically a requirement for journalists in those days provided they could write intelligibly when drunk. Unlike many journalists today - how about this mangled sentence!

Ken Bailey died in 1999 and after his father’s death, Bailey, who Reynolds says was particularly close to their mother, Brenda, would visit her regularly.

I think this means

"Reynolds says Ian was particularly close to his mother, Brenda, and visited her regularly after his father Ken died in 1999".

Day Lewin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123098090#Comment_123098090

According to police photos, there were bedroom slippers in the bedroom. According to persons who had stayed in the house…this pair of ankle runners were left downstairs and used by Sophie as a kind of slippers when walking on the cold floor. She appears to have just pushed her feet into them without undoing the laces.

J Mysterio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123098203#Comment_123098203

She was wearing boots. Multiple sources here:

http://www.odonohoearchive.com/i-have-never-felt-terror-like-it-the-murder-of-sophie-toscan-du-plantier/#_ftn3

chooseusername

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123098635#Comment_123098635

"She was wearing boots. Multiple sources here:"

Yes, she usually wore the boots she was found in, around the house. That's not in dispute here.

jesuisjuste

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123097906#Comment_123097906

That's why I mentioned blood DNA in particular, and even more so if it is mixed with Sophie's blood, it doesn't matter who left it, if it is found mixed in its a slam dunk. There at the time of the murder.

Day Lewin

Yes, it would be a slam dunk; but there's not much to suggest that the attacker shed any blood at the scene. None was found. And although Sophie may have put up a fight, she didn't get any skin fragments on her hands or under her fingernails - so the killer must have been fully protected by his clothing.

Thick winter clothing, presumably, including gloves, most likely. No fingerprints, no injuries from the clawing of a terrified woman. I hope they DO find something; but this crime just looks like that rare and frustrating thing - a crime scene where the perpetrator has left little or no trace.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123100054#Comment_123100054

Motive is the other mystery. The past and indeed future violence Bailey demonstrated towards a woman, obviously puts him in the frame - but for the fact of any credible evidence that they had any sort of relationship, friendship or even an introduction other than a brief alleged introduction over her neighbours fence .

Even if one accepts that the introduction occurred, it’s a far leap of the mind to believe Bailey then took it upon himself on a random winters night to pay a visit to Sophie.

The only scenario I can think of is that he set out for one of his legendary night time wanderings , that some have said he did, and ended up at Sophie’s gate- purely because that’s where he found himself - either a deliberate venture or simply because that’s where he ended up-what happened after, that prompted and led to her death, is unknown.

That might be a possible scenario but I invite anyone to rip it apart also . Whilst Bailey was capable of violence, he wasn’t rat-arsed that night -a few miles of walk would have sobered him further -there was no signs of anger in him on that night- he would have been aware how stupid he looked being out on his own in the middle of the night in a place he had no business being - and indeed how creepy it would have looked. Far from engaging with Sophie, he would have been trying to avoid any contact , especially if he thought he’d be in with a chance with her in the future.

And if the attack happened closer to morning time which I believe is the general thinking now, then even less chance it was Bailey- more sober, much less likely to be venturing to Sophie’s house , less volitile.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123100054#Comment_123100054

Well if the killer(s) was someone that would have ordinally leave traces that can be explained?

bjsc

Alfie has/had a daughter.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123101073#Comment_123101073

That's probably the only motive I could think of about Bailey. He did a night time wandering, probably howled at the moon near her house, possibly to scare her? still half drunk, but booze wearing off now, Sophie came out to investigate, and they had an argument, and he hit her with some stone and finished her off with the cavity block. Not impossible to think it happened this way. However this theory would never explain the blood stain at the door, or how that expensive bottle of French wine gotten there.

I would never think Bailey's motive to kill Sophie was sexual, that is if he did it at all. There was also no evidence of sexual activity. After all what would Bailey have done? It wouldn't have been consensual so he could only have raped her, and that would certainly have meant leaving DNA evidence.

Mackinac

but what if they did leave a trace and it was explained away because the person was known to Sophie?

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123102421#Comment_123102421

I know there are sexually motivated murders - without any sexual contact -but they’re rare and the scale of the oddballs who have done such murders are on a different planet altogether from Bailey - I just wouldn’t subscribe to Bailey doing what you describe above….just for that reason. Going to Sophie’s house, to scare her by howling? It makes no sense -I know her death is also senseless anyway- but that scenario just doesn’t convince me or sway me in any way. But then again I’m skeptical anyway that Bailey was involved so I’d need more convincing

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123102571#Comment_123102571

This scenario doesn't convince me either, but it is on theory I could still think of, since the wandering at night was brought up. And he did wander around at night, and howling at the moon or similar has also been reported about Bailey. Whether that's all true, I don't know.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123102595#Comment_123102595

Indeed- so many years later and myths half truths rumours and lies all get swept up as fact. I really can’t be sure he did midnight rambles either but I’m willing to walk that theory in the interests of trying to understand just why Bailey has had such a focus, not from the public, but the investigating Gardai .

I think we’ve shown above that such activity is unlikely and a motive for murder non existent

In the article posted above there was a retired I think it said FBI guy or some retired police anyway. mentioned it was important that this cold case review does just that, and not simply as a vehicle to try and pursue new evidence against Bailey - the Gardai need to go where the evidence brings them. I’ve never seen the evidence bringing me to Baileys door - and believe me I’ve tried. Not one poster, not one documentary has made me even think for one minute it was Bailey.

I really don’t understand how and why the Gardai have held out for so long focusing nearly exclusively on Bailey given the so called evidence we’ve seen via DPP reports . It means that anyone who provided any other clues not related to Bailey in the early months of this investigation were likely told to go away.

Seth Brundle

I really don’t understand how and why the Gardai have held out for so long focusing nearly exclusively on Bailey given the so called evidence we’ve seen via DPP reports . It means that anyone who provided any other clues not related to Bailey in the early months of this investigation were likely told to go away.

Based on what we've been able to access there is a strong indication that target fixation kept Bailey as the lead suspect. Now, I may be wrong in that view but there is nothing else publically available to explain why Bailey is the chief suspect. It happened in other high profile murder cases in or around those times. In the months prior to Sophie's murder we had a hit & run wrongly classified as a murder and suspects arrested. We had Joanne Hayes and her family accused of murder along with coerced statements. We had Una Lynskey's murderer get away with the crime along with a follow up revenge murder happen because the gardai ignored all the evidence provided to them - they had a suspect and concocted the evidence to suit their own incorrect theory.