Spain and Portugal are at their driest for 1,200 years

Thargor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406687#Comment_119406687

Yeah nice dodge of addressing any of the points that were put to you there, smooth, Id be embarrassed too and wouldn't want to talk about it if I came out with that crap.

"Put your money where your mouth is and come up with some figures." Okay hang on a minute while I fire up Microsoft Excel there and make up some fake numbers like you were hilariously caught doing.

Rikand

I dont often agree with Orion, but I do like how he stepped in there and effectively told Thargor to go do one.

Orion402

" The climate change 'debate' is an interesting one"

The climate change assertion is like a flat Earth assertion as the standard is so low that it can only interest those who lack the perceptive faculties to realise it is based on an imperative that humans must control weather/temperatures through action or inaction.

Cyclical weather like the seasons involves planetary dynamics so climate is an extension of this approach. In short, planetary climate is the rate of change in atmospheric, oceanic and landmass conditions across latitudes as the planet runs a circuit of the Sun with each component influencing the other. It is therefore not just an atmospheric issue as the modellers would wish to have it but far more involved and intricate.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406799#Comment_119406799

Nice dodge yourself re. Excel. Childish.

About the spontaneous combustion, I didn't make that up. Not sure why you and OldRio think it's a strawman. It's what one resident claimed happened to a compost heap in a Wennington garden.

“It was a three-foot high pile of grass and the heat had built up inside, it just spontaneously combusted.

Mr. Stock’s claim has not been confirmed by LFB.

It's amazing the amount of tinder that's all around me here in Sardinia as I speak and yet it's not all bursting into flames. Truly amazing. Here are some photos I took the other day. That poor donkey is probably burnt to a crisp by now.

OldRio

I've never seen a compost heap set on fire but the temperatures generated can be very high. Mine are about 60C and have reached 70C. For auto ignition to take place those temps would have to be much much higher. (Spontaneous Ignition is a term that in laymen terms is 'bollox')

I have read reports of them igniting when the moisture content is incorrect, very dry but I've never seen it myself.

As for hordes of climate activists igniting all and sundry. Well, I'm reminded of that layman's term again.

Thargor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406909#Comment_119406909

Childish? You're the one who tried to get away with it and got busted, Im just laughing about it still 🤣

Anyway WTF are you on about now? One resident in all of London thinks a compost heap spontaneously combusted, so what? Another nice dodge of the points put to you about your ridiculous arson conspiracy comments btw, care to address any of that?

(Not to even mention the fact that spontaneous combustion in compost is a well documented occurrence whatever point you were trying to make there only Orion402 knows)

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407535#Comment_119407535

Tried to get away with and got busted for what?

You really can't follow what's going on, can you? You call it arson conspiracy theory, well I'm afraid the stats show that in many cases it's down to arson. I've outlined in detail why, as has MT, but you just ignored that bit. The source of one of the major fires was said to be that compost heap, a 3-foot pile of grass cuttings, in the garden of the guy I quoted. It was all over the news, not just "one resident thinking it". It was the same with the Canadian heatwave last year. You had Akrasia here claiming a whole town just went up in flames out of nowhere. People seem to believe this sort of stuff. Meanwhile, in the real world, piles of tinder in hotter climes are not just going up in flames. You ignored that bit too. But go ahead and believe all this stuff if you want to while still not providing one shred of evidence of anything.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119383820#Comment_119383820

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature16494

we have delayed the next ice age by 50000 years (gone from expecting one in 50k years, to delaying it to 100k years)

Oneiric 3

"There's light in the sky to illuminate..."

OldRio

It seems someone has no idea what a compost heap comprises of. Deary me.

Thargor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407808#Comment_119407808

'Tried to get away with and got busted for what?'

Ah come on now! I think you remember it very well, I seem to remember you had a little 2 week temper tantrum with Akrasia over it afterwards until people started laughing at that aswell 😂

Dont worry Ill find it, Ive been meaning to go back to the old climate denial thread and grab that MTCranium post where he suddenly declared that catastrophic warming was happening after all and made several predictions that were worse than IPCC worst case scenarios now that he seems to have forgotten and is back talking about hysterical greens hijacking the science, that was the reason ye all abandoned that thread iirc...

M.T. Cranium

No you're missing the point, I haven't changed my mind about ongoing warming, you're calling it catastrophic ... I'm just saying there isn't much if anything we can do about it, and the attempts we are making are economically and socially counter-productive. There are mitigation strategies available. One is to deal with the changes in a rational way. If London has one or two days as hot as we have here ten or twenty times a year, so what? They can adjust, it's the same racial stock that puts up with 40C on a regular basis here. We tough it out. Giving away massive chunks of economic health and personal freedoms just to ratchet down the temperature by .01 C seems ridiculous to me.

So don't waste your time hunting down quotes from me, I can reaffirm that I believe the warming is partly natural and partly human-caused, and that in reality, there is very little we can do, other than adapt. I've suggested a number of adaptations that make sense, but greens want to throw a spanner into every workable solution, I've heard that they are the main reason California refuses to take the obvious plunge into large-scale desalination. Ridiculous really, the same as their opposition to relatively clean nuclear and LNG solutions. It shows me that their real agenda is social destruction. Daddy issues on a very large and dangerous scale.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409019#Comment_119409019

Who are you referring to here? The guy who owned the heap described it as "a 3-foot high pile of grass". I have one higher than that in my garden and it's not only grass. It's right beside my oil tank too. Oops!

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407847#Comment_119407847

That seems like a good thing. The next major glacial maximum (what you meant by ice age) will be a really harsh challenge on a much larger scale than warming or sea level rises. Our distant descendants will thank us if we put into place strategies that can somehow avert that outcome. At the very least, we can store all the gas guzzlers in a safe area and make them widely available around 50,000 (or 100,000 years) years from now to forestall the temperature plunge. Of course by then we will have a global population of 18,300 entirely descended from Bill Gates and quite comfortable to ride out the ice age in Polynesia, I suppose.

M.T. Cranium

There's a lot of verbiage in this thread, I feel like we need to get back to the essential question, which I see as being this ...

the IPCC recently announced that they believe that all the warming observed since 1975 or thereabouts is human caused, and in fact, they imply that the human warming signature is 0.2 C larger than what is observed because in their opinion, the background climate should be cooling due to natural variability, so in other words, if we all agree that the global climate has warmed by 1.0 C then human warming has a magnitude of 1.2 C.

I am one rather isolated climate scientist who takes a different view, that natural variability has produced a significant portion of this recent warming. I estimate that portion to be in the ballpark of one third to two thirds (0.4 to 0.7) and the human signal is the remainder, although I would like to see more research done into complexities of the interaction, is it just as simple as adding two components, or more complicated?

Other skeptics of various kinds have a range of other estimates. There are people out there, I don't know if any participate in this thread or not, who believe there is no warming, that it is a mistake in measurements. I don't share that view. Then there are some who say, okay we accept the warming, but it is all natural. I do not agree with that either.

That is the only significant question in play, and all this other stuff about politics and social trends are details of that argument and its implications, because the implications are different for each estimate, if all the warming is natural then obviously we need to mitigate that, if it's 50-50 then a more balanced approach seems logical, if the IPCC are correct then we should see improvements because there are already changes underway in human behaviour. If we change our behaviour and it keeps getting warmer, then does that not argue that the natural variability proponents are right and the IPCC are wrong?

Some people here act super surprised if anyone suggests incompetence at the top of our science. But allowing oneself to be blinded to complex reality because of an inherent political bias is a foundation for incompetence. Such persons are not likely to realize spontaneously the error of their ways, but other scientists in other disciplines without as much face to save might notice and might take corrective steps, otherwise, where is the accountability? Who oversees science? Scientists. It is of course a recipe for error to exist and persist. Scientists are hardly immune to the universal human condition of false pride.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409092#Comment_119409092

I'm beginning to think that you're actually Banana Republic 1. You've the same empty but toxic posting style. Now you're referring back to some events in the distant past to try to score what you see as points? What a sad little life.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407847#Comment_119407847

The entire basis of this unfortunate topic is founded on an inability to interpret basis temperature cycles and their underlying cause as a means to begin climate change research.

This temperature graph indicates the daily temperature cycle is a property of a single rotation-

The longer term seasonal cycle is a property of two surface rotations acting in combination-

When contributors to this forum recognise planetary climate is a product of planetary dynamics by following the proper principles starting with the day/night cycle and then the seasons, then the standard of consideration is such that the computer gamers are no longer involved in the atrocity visited on the Earth science of climate and solar system research.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409413#Comment_119409413

You are literally repeating yourself over and over again with the same statements and you've posted at least one of those images before. Stop **** trolling and go off to somewhere where your "contributions" may be more appreciated. You're a record stuck on replay and yet the moderators are allowing this bolloxology to continue here in the meteorology forum.

What has become of the moderators? Surely point #5 of the charter would apply:

5. No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

I'm very **** aggravated and not for the first time.

Gaoth Laidir

At least if a record is stuck, its a record that you had wanted to play in the first place. Not this crap.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409576#Comment_119409576

May I ask if point #5 of the charter would also be applicable to yourself? I don't want this issue to give the impression that it is just myself that is aggravated by the posts in this section of Boards.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409413#Comment_119409413

OK, I'll nibble.

I actually understand the basic point of day cycle = seasonal/yearly cycle etc, but then doesn't it follow that there would be longer seasonal cycles also? And this may not be just down to the 'tilt of the earth' alone, but also the tilt of other planets in our solar system. Tilts of other planets no doubt affected the climate of their planets and which may have, in turn, had an effect on ours. For example, the regular tilting of the sun and the resultant shift around of its equator and its tropical/polar zones, does make you wonder if this would have a longer term jarring influence on our own planet's climate.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409589#Comment_119409589

I've really gone beyond the point of getting aggravated by the posts now. What aggravates me more is the fact that they're allowed continue.

The same could be said for a couple of other posters too, but then we're getting towards backseat modding territory. I'll let them let off whatever steam they need to before they go back into hibernation.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119405455#Comment_119405455

One of the best posts I've read on this forum in a long, long time and I'm nigh on two decades reading stuff on here.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406756#Comment_119406756

Very reasoned statement.

I'd share similar sentiments you've alluded to, but when it comes down to "human activity" I'd be more of the opinion that our geo-engineering of the landscape has more profound effects on the 2m temperature readings than any amount of diesel exhausts, cow farts, etc... has.

We've drained land, felled forests, concreted large footprints of land and changed a huge amount of vegetation over the last century and a half. When the sun beats down on these changed surfaces it impacts temperature readings and if these landscape changes mean more heat retention into the night time hours, thats where we're really seeing the increases.

Danno

If I were asked for my opinion on "AGW" in it's purest sense - how is human activity effecting temperatures and their observed ~1.0c increase, I'd offer the following:

0.15c~0.25c increase owing to higher gas emissions

0.55c~0.75c increase owing to land use changes

0.3c~0.5c Natural change

The lowest of all three exceed the initial "estimate".

Oneiric 3

Report here on the various Euro countries that are experiencing drought this year:

Water scarcity: EU countries forced to restrict drinking water access | Environment | All topics from climate change to conservation | DW | 07.07.2022

And according to the German Met Service in the article, both winters and summers are set to become even drier across the region:

"Drier European summer and winters are set to become more frequent, according to a new study by the German weather service. The climatologists confirmed that after a very dry March with just one-third of the usual volume of rainfall, the post-spring drought in Europe has significantly reduced water levels. 

A rainfall deficit was seen to be emerging across almost all 11 European regions studied, confirming a trend in Germany, for example, where nearly every spring since 2009 has been overly dry".

Which does lend credence to the theory that the Azores High has been and is gaining more of a grip over the continent, which really doesn't bode well for us here in Ireland either, esp for those of us whole enjoy winter storms and snow etc.

On the other side of the Atlantic, I believe quite a few of the southern US states are going through a rough patch as well regarding the lack of rainfall. Some big rains have occurred though in the last week from a region roughly from St. Louis down into eastern Kentucky, so some relief for them at least.

Rikand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409589#Comment_119409589

Endemic of boards.ie in general but the mods have largely buggered off since the switch to vanilla. Most have given up their roles or just simply left the forums such is their disillusionment with the changeover. What mods remain are fighting a losing battle in maintaining the masses.

The end of days for boards.ie is probably imminent. Is there a suitable forum we can move to if everything does go belly up in the near future ?

Thargor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409019#Comment_119409019

I think whats happened the poor lad is that he's feeling a bit embarrassed by what was a pretty hysterical conspiracy theory even by his standards and is now trying to present a strawman whereby hes implying it was claimed that stuff starts spontaneously combusting at 40 deg C rather than the usual increase in frequency and likelihood of record breaking events as has been spoonfed to him hundreds of times.

Orion402

" I actually understand the basic point of day cycle = seasonal/yearly cycle etc, but then doesn't it follow that there would be longer seasonal cycles also?"

The original explanation for the seasons 500 years ago was deficient for a number of reasons that are now easily corrected using visual imaging even if it has to be cobbled together from different sources. The small number of the original researchers like Copernicus, Galileo and Kepler were forced to work with the framework of Ptolemy, which took note of the annual cycle using the direct motion of the Sun through the fixed field of background stars (Constellations/Zodiac) and defined the year, but also the small 1 degree drift every 72 years known as the Precession of the Equinoxes or what they considered a 25,920 year cycle.

Copernicus was compelled to resolve this drift by employing axial precession and this is where the problem arises with the more important explanation for the seasons, at least in terms of immediacy, which involves the rotation of the entire surface parallel to the orbital plane and to the central/stationary Sun once every year.

The main fact here is - when daily rotation and all its effects are subtracted (day/night cycle, temperature fluctuations, ect), all locations on the surface still experience one rotation and one day/night cycle as a function of the orbital motion of the planet. This means that the older axial precession resolution has to be removed in order to allow the annual rotation to emerge as an explanation for seasonal and cyclical weather.

This is why the annual graphs relating temperatures are so important as they represent the dynamics of two surface rotations acting in combination where temperatures lag the dynamics but are intimately tied to them like Arctic sea ice evolution which continues to decrease late into September-

The danger of creating recent fluff like the meteorological seasons is that it diverges from the anchor in planetary dynamics which determines midsummer/midwinter on the Solstices as a reflection of the position of the North/South poles relative to the Sun and the dark hemisphere of the Earth. If sea ice was used as a guide, the seasons would be midwinter on March 1st and midsummer late September.

So, the issue is extracting axial precession as a resolution for the Precession of the Equinoxes insofar as the actual resolution is far more interesting as an extension of the much larger drift of one day or 360 degrees after every fourth 365 day cycle-

".. on account of the procession of the rising of Sirius by one day in the course of 4 years,.. therefore it shall be, that the year of 360 days and the 5 days added to their end, so one day shall be from this day after every 4 years added to the 5 epagomenae before the new year" Canopus Decree 238 BC

In attempting to make the genuine innovators through history look small so people can go on a misadventure with computer gaming the Earth science of climate, readers miss out on all the great material which connects them to planetary dynamics in a Sun-centred system.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410313#Comment_119410313

You've a vivid imagination, I'll give you that.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410127#Comment_119410127

Possibly, but then when you read these parts...

The situation is probably most dramatic in northern Italy, where the region is undergoing the most extreme drought since the 1950s.

...

 "On average, 25 % of fresh water is lost on the way from the water source, such as a river, to an industrial area," Zal noted. Making water infrastructure more efficient will bring "huge potential savings." (Portugal)

...

Once fertile soils are increasingly turning to sand, especially after the second driest winter since 1961, according to Spain's meteorological bureau.

And then factor in the greatly increased population and therefore demand for water, it's not just a question of agw but more about leaking infrastructure and sensible choices. Ireland loses more than half of its water through leaks in the system and we're on usage restrictions after just three weeks of no rainfall. Doesn't really mean our issues are all because of CO2, does it?

But the real driver of European precipitation patterns is the AMO, which, in its positive phase, has always led to drier conditions in the Med and wetter in northern Europe. Oneiric posted a chart showing the difference between the rainfall in the 1961-90 and 1991-2020 periods, which tied in perfectly with the switch from negative to positive AMO. But mentioning the AMO seems to be taboo here for some reason.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410313#Comment_119410313

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409191#Comment_119409191

Indeed. The strawmen he clutches to are really something else. He comes across as rather angry as well. 'Old man rages at sky' comes to mind.

I only got involved in the conversation because of his conspiracy theory, climate activists being arsonists, which is plainly silly.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411018#Comment_119411018

As I stated, it very well may turn out to be wrong, or it may not, only the investigations will tell. It's one opinion based on previous reckless antics by climate activists who had no regard for human life, theirs or others'. Or did I just make that up too?

Instead of "only getting involved in the conversation" to have a go at me, why not rise above Thargor's level and explain more about compost heaps, seeing as you think I don't know what one is (having worked with them for 12 years).

OldRio

Well I'll raise your 12 years by another 10 years. 22 years of composting.

You seem to have issues and I refuse to entertain them anymore. Therefore I'm going to leave you to it.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411430#Comment_119411430

That's it, run away and dodge the question. I'm sure Thargor won't pull you up on it, though.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411551#Comment_119411551

I can assure you that I've never dodged anything in my life. Why should I tell you about compost heaps if you have used them for 12 years? What an odd thing to ask.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411705#Comment_119411705

Because you said I didn't know what one was. What an odd thing to say yourself.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411841#Comment_119411841

That was before you said you've used one for 12 years. So what's the point in me 'dodging' anything.

Ah Now. You have serious problems.

Mr Bumble

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410313#Comment_119410313

Did you ever buy those BP shares you were wondering about just after they tanked because of the Gulf of Mexico disaster? Or those other oil stocks you were wondering about? Did you make cash out of them? If you did, do you feel even a small bit responsible for the state of the planet and why would anyone pay any attention to anything you say?

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411896#Comment_119411896

The only contribution you made was to criticise my theory on the fires (which you're entitled to do) and then claim that "someone' doesn't know what a compost heap is", ignoring when I asked you question who that was.

My point about explaining more on them was tongue in cheek to get you to at least tell us something mildly informative instead of the personal jabs. You ran the minute you learned your own compost strawman was made-up nonsense itself. A bigger man would own up to his mistake.

Can't believe I'm having this conversation. Just go back into hibernation.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412105#Comment_119412105

Old man shouts at sky.

Yawwwwn.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412115#Comment_119412115

Old Rio runs out of puff.

What has happened to this thread.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410247#Comment_119410247

Don't know how you think that. You're a regular in the golf forum and it's modded to death. It's like a redacted CIA file. Can't mention the subject you're discussing etc.

It's a joke. If anything it's general posters who bugger off due to excessive modding.

Oneiric 3

Attempted to build up a compost heap last year, but it drew rats into the garden. So that idea was nipped in the bud very quickly.

Rikand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412368#Comment_119412368

You're right. The Golf Forum is ridiculous. It was more just a general statement about my experience with boards.ie as a whole rather the singling out a single forum

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412065#Comment_119412065

Don't do as I do, do as I say. We have our very own oil and gas oligarch on this forum. Mods, start the sanctions!

Thargor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411551#Comment_119411551

Why would I pull him up on anything? Anyone pointing out the ridiculous mental gymnastics you and Orion402 and the few other loons left in this sewer is fine by me...

Thargor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409360#Comment_119409360

You never got caught doing it or it happened in the past? You have to pick a lie and stick to it. You're some hypocrite coming out with this after your compost heap ramble, also the wannabe thread policeman claiming he doesnt do backseat moderation 😂

Ah at least you're entertaining I suppose...

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412799#Comment_119412799

If we want to talk about hypocrisy then let's talk about your shares in BP. A bit rich preaching about the problems with fossil fuels when you were very quick to throw money you didn't need into their shares and tell the world about it at the time. Not so vocal about it now, though.

As you say, you need to tell a story and stick to it.

Thargor

Yes I did tell a story of dumping fossil fuels from my investments and switching to renewables and battery tech years ago, mainly in Australian lithium and graphite, did you miss that bit in your deep dive into my posting history? It's what the whole world needs to do urgently, did very well out of it aswell thanks, should be able to skip the mortgage when I get my house just off the back of one lithium company as per my posts in the investment forum.

That's called viewing the evidence before your eyes along with listening to the scientific consensus of basically every researcher and institution on the planet and acting on it not being a scientifically illiterate forum troll.

Struggling to see how that compares to the hilarious incident where you were caught fabricating the figures for your little citizen scientist AGW denial study though? At least you seem to have stopped lying about it ever happening now though.