Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

Meteorite58

For a weather enthusiast and someone who likes to study and learn about convective weather Tuesday is looking very interesting and could be quite an active day backed up by the ECM which has been showing the potential for a number of runs.

Here is how I see it, amateur and not perfect but would like to hear others views. This is not hype or down playing just how I see it. If it doesn't happen it doesn't happen and it becomes a learning exercise.

Lot of parameters favouring thunderstorms with some very heavy rain , up to warning level. After the weekend and Monday it looks like it could turn very suddenly and abruptly to more severe weather in the form of thunderstorms spreading up the country from the SW , S some of which could produce very heavy rain bringing about spot or local flooding.

Still looks like getting up to the high 20's near the East , warmest in the Eastern half of the country and into the 20's more widely before the weather approaches . DP's look set to get very high, possibly into the 20's in the East, high teens more widely.

Currently see lot of Shear from Jet stream near or overhead, very pronounced areas of convergence, LLS and good lapse rates, lots of mid and upper instability

Charts just intended as showing the potential , timing and location bound to shift around.

pad199207

Capping could be an issue Meteorite

Gaoth Laidir

Just looking at the ECM Ensembles for Celbridge at 7 pm on Monday.

Main run 31.1

Control run 31.6

50 ensembles: Mean 30.6, Min 28.2, Max 32.6

On the other hand, the ICON and GFS are completely different.

ICON: 40 members: Mean 26.8, Max 31.3, Min 22.5

GFS: 30 members: Mean 24.1, Max 28.7, Min 18.0

These possibly showing signs of a sea breeze effect coming into play.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338005#Comment_119338005

The peak of the heatwave in Spain has now passed. Below are the hottest stations on each day.

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343235#Comment_119343235

Did they break any all time records?

Gonzo

The majority of people I know have booked Monday off work. Alot of people will just not not enjoy working in that heat particularly in retail and would rather sit out their back garden for the day with cans.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343100#Comment_119343100

I think there is enough dynamics to break the Cap, plenty of shear and convergence and forcing from the cold front . Will be interested to see the convective forecasts coming up and what they say about funnel tornadic possibilities.Will be a lot of vorticity in the atmosphere.

hunter2000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343274#Comment_119343274

Drinking cans won’t get any work done. There is air con in most retail settings. They aren’t being asked to lay 150 blocks on the flat.

igCorcaigh

I'm hoping for the Convective thread to get lively, when/if it comes, with photos (please!), even if we don't get sparks down here.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343248#Comment_119343248

47.3C officially is what I can see as the Spanish record for temperature, but earlier accounts from previous times with not well regarded weather stations suggested

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extreme_temperatures_in_Spain

igCorcaigh

But I'm only Googling WJL. Hopefully some of the more knowledgeable posters might give a better reply.

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343449#Comment_119343449

Ok. I don't think it was mentioned on news bulletins.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343248#Comment_119343248

Some individual stations beat their previous records but the national record was not beaten.

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343478#Comment_119343478

Thanks Gaoth.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343332#Comment_119343332

Currently a hell of a cap in the Santander sounding today, assuming this air heads our way over the weekend. SBCAPE of over 750 J/kg but this highlights why looking at SBCAPE alone doesn't tell the whole picture. That big elevated mixed layer up to 600 hPa needs to be eroded by e.g. an upper shortwave in order to reduce the cap. When I'm in Sardinia every year the charts drive me mad with 3000 J/kg SBCAPE and yet blue skies the whole time due to the EML of the desert airmass.

Of course, as you say, up this way the upper dynamics can get to work on it and steepen those mid-level lapse rates. We'll see. All I'm saying is July 1985...

fryup

Ireland's previous hottest day was in 1887 in kilkenny with a temp of 33c - surely there was no global warming back then? just a freakish day i take it?😶

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343551#Comment_119343551

If that record is genuine, I'd imagine Ireland was one of the very few places to experience record heat that year.

The issue is that now Ireland is one of many, many places across the globe experiencing extreme heat (for their respective areas).

For example if you look at the global map heat for 1976, you'll see that only a small part of Western Europe during that 'record summer' saw record heat that year.

Also, the Irish heat record is one of the oldest, if not THE oldest in the world. This implicit assumption from some on here that global warming isn't a thing because only Ireland was hotter for a few days back in 1887 is a bit bizarre.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343615#Comment_119343615

The issue is that now Ireland is one of many, many places across the globe experiencing extreme heat (for their respective areas).

For "many" places to be experiencing extreme heat now, there must be an almost equal counter balance of "many" places experiencing extreme cold (for their respective areas, of course) because in order to achieve a regular return of Global average temperatures of the range +0.2c~+0.3c then pretty much every extreme heat anomaly you speak of must be equalled by an extreme cold anomaly in order to achieve a near normal/very slightly above normal temperature profile across the globe:

Unfortunately though, for some bizarre reason we mostly hear of the "extreme heat" anomalies...

pauldry

Madrid Airport equalled its highest ever temperature yesterday at 42.2c. "Only" 40c today.

Sligo hit 17c!! Whoopee doo but it was sunny. We might get over 20c tomorrow but that sea cloud doesn't cooperate with the rest of the countries weather.

compsys

The global temp has increased by well over 1º over the past two decades. Not sure why you're quoting +0.2c~+0.3c .

Also, a one-degree global change is significant because it takes a vast amount of heat to warm all of the oceans, the atmosphere, and the land masses by that much. In the past, a one-to-two degree drop was all it took to plunge the Earth into the Little Ice Age.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343660#Comment_119343660

Incorrect - during the last ice age global temperatures were around 6c cooler than the entire global 1901-2000 temperature profile. Source: Scientists Project Precisely How Cold the Last Ice Age Was | Smart News| Smithsonian Magazine

A far deeper plunge than the 1c to 2c drop you're suggesting.

As for: The global temp has increased by well over 1º over the past two decades. Not sure why you're quoting +0.2c~+0.3c . That +0.2c~+0.3c figure is today's estimated global temperature profile against the 1979-2000 global temperature profile which corresponds to the age of satellite records. I check in on it quite regularly and it has been at these figures for a good while now.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343682#Comment_119343682

I said little ice age - and the link is in the post.

And again, as you seem to not really grasp how averages etc work when dealing with huge amounts of data, a one-degree global change is significant because it takes a vast amount of heat to warm all of the oceans, the atmosphere, and the land masses by that much.

Anyway, not going to get into a back and forth again with you.

Enjoy the good weather.

kingshankly

Says a lot about people you know 🙈

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343702#Comment_119343702

Post reported - I am not anti-vax, I've got mine. Another slur in your personal attacks against those who hold a differing opinion to you. As they say, those who loose the debate resort to personal attacks. Noted. I won't be engaging with you any further, your tolerance levels and debating levels are both in the sewer.

compsys

More than happy not to debate with someone who doesn't believe in climate change. On a weather form of all places.

However I apologise for the other comment in that case. I'll delete/edit my post.

Re global temp of 1º - I meant over several decades - not two. Mea cupla.

Was 200°C in my oven this evening.

Didn't see that forecast anywhere.

Danno

Tonight's 18z continues the downgrade for Tuesday big time...

Monday still the one-day wonder. Even Sunday isn't as hot as was suggested by the GFS earlier this week. Still, a 31c in the mid-west region for Monday:

Foggy Jew

FFS Get ME to issue a weather warning...... kiss goobye to any weather drama. The boy has cried wolf too many times now

Gaoth Laidir

Looked back at the Phoenix Park daily maximum temperature record from 1867-1921. Strangely, the warmest readings all occurred back in the 19th and early 20th centuries, apart from 1990 in 3rd place (I assume the 33.5 in 1876 has been disregarded).

http://climexp.knmi.nl/gdcntmax.cgi?WMO=EI000003969&STATION=DUBLIN_PHOENIX_PARK

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343883#Comment_119343883

But, but, was the measurement in those earlier days taken correctly, was the observer drunk?

If so, none of those stand.

However, based on those historical records and the homogenised averages determined since, some folk can concur that...