Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119337982#Comment_119337982

A map of temps over 20 years for the entire globe does not equate to the temp being 0.2c~0.6c cooler in Ireland over 3 days or four days.

Christ...

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119337966#Comment_119337966

Sorry, I wasn't implying you had said it but I've heard it already several times. It's peak solar isolation in the northern hemisphere, so the cut-off low coincides perfectly to line up these two holes in the cheese. It's then down to if you think that extra CO2 in the air this week has made the temperatures on the ground higher co.pared to 50 years ago.

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119337984#Comment_119337984

I was just having a cursory look at the anomalies now. I never mentioned annually or made any claims. Funny how people read, or misread, posts.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338006#Comment_119338006

What baseline do you want to use? What constitutes as absolute average for Ireland, or any point on the globe for that matter?

"Christ..." ???

It's a well known fact that hot spells such as the one coming up have visited Ireland in the past. 33.3c was recorded in Kilkenny before, Markree too.

Going by the logic of some - if Ireland breaks 33.3c this Monday it's absolute proof of Global Warming.

Say we don't exceed 33.3c or equal it, do we conclude that there is no proof of Global Warming?

Gonzo

Arpege for the Monday is in. Difficult for me to make out all the temperatures jumbled on top of each other in the south-west but I can see a 34C for Shannon. Meath not as hot maybe 29 to 30.

Sunday looks very warm too, high twenties for most, 31C for Shannon.

Arpege goes as far as Tuesday morning and the temperature remains above 20C for many places through Monday night into Tuesday morning. Parts of Wales and south-west England may struggle to get night time temperatures below 30C.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338067#Comment_119338067

You're implying that a global temp anomaly over 20 years would mean the temp would only be up to 0.6º higher in Ireland on a few days (and anywhere else I presume).

I'm not going to explain how means and averages etc. work when dealing with huge amounts of data.

I agree that not every event should be attributed to GW. I mean, last year I did complain to myself when a Green Party TD talked about the consequences of GW because the temp was going to reach 25 for a few days!

However some of the explanations on here for why the upcoming record-breaking temps aren't GW seem a bit ridiculous. We're clearly in a climate crisis and a warming planet. And it's disappointing to see so many climate change deniers on what's supposed to be a scientific topic.

Also, we're seeing 30º breached every second year in Ireland now it seems when it used to be once a decade.

jackrussel

Any chance ye could all take yer CC talk to the CC thread like the mod asked ye to do instead of continuing to turn this one into a shitshow? Thanks

Dazler97

Lads stop having a go at each other, who cares, stick on topic please or you could be removed

Kermit.de.frog

The exceptional heat looks to be short lived, probably 2 to 3 days. The breakdown early-mid next week will be interesting to watch. There is storm potential but so far nothing notable. A lot depends on how the low pressure approaches from the southwest or Biscay. Still to be ironed out but I'd expect entertainment for some.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338178#Comment_119338178

Also, we're seeing 30º breached every second year in Ireland now it seems when it used to be once a decade.

• On June 26th 1851 Markree recorded 32.9c
• On June 27th 1851 Markree recorded 33.1c
• On June 28th 1851 Markree recorded 33.3c
• On June 29th 1851 Markree recorded 32.2c

Four days in a row over 32c, let alone 30c - all from a station traditionally away from the much warmer south and east of Ireland.

All data: https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2021/09/Markree_1850-1968.csv

These heat blasts have happened before, they'll happen again.

pauldry

I have a feeling this may go 🍐 shaped for Western and Northern areas. South and East more likely to get 30c. Wouldn't expect much over 25c here now.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338234#Comment_119338234

Welcome back.

Gonzo

Mod Note: Can we just stick to talking about this event and no more Climate Change talk as it is off topic, there is a seperate thread for it.

Gaoth Laidir

A look at how 850-hPa temperatures have been running in Iberia this week, taken from radiosonde data. Western and central Iberia definitely hotter.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338277#Comment_119338277

Agreed - the words CC and GW should be banned from this thread going forward. There is plenty of data available to suggest that while this upcoming event is very notable, it is not very unique.

The 18z tonight should be interesting! I wonder will Tuesday spring a surprise?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338273#Comment_119338273

Thanks!

Just as I was mentioning storms the latest ECM is a bit juicier for Tuesday evening/overnight Munster/Leinster. Good distance out but definitely something to watch.

I'd be surprised if some of us didn't get a very decent storm out of this.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338263#Comment_119338263

What are you basing that opnion off.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338263#Comment_119338263

Is this a competition between you and Little Snowy Old Me for being the most negative? 😉

It's an interesting anomaly how incoming wind or snow storms are regarded as so dangerous while a snap heatwave is almost universally welcomed. The truth is that a heatwave like this almost always brings more carnage. between drownings, motorbike accidents, gorse fires, etc. Not to mention the heart attacks brought on by all the womens walking around with their bits exposed. I'll be hiding under the duvet until Wednesday.

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338318#Comment_119338318

Paranoia and Coffee and dread.

Plus the fringes are showing cooler on some runs.

igCorcaigh

I'm really enjoying the warm weather the past few days, despite the high humidity sometimes. So nice after that awful June. 19C and 63% rH right now in the real capitol. And I'm in my shorts 😜

Looking forward to the brief jump to very warm temps next week, I hope everyone is sensible but makes the most of it! 👍️

Man Vs ManUre

It’s gonna get fierce feckin hot.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338377#Comment_119338377

Liked, for a better replacement of all that sh1te in the media. Nice one MVM 😂

pauldry

Nice day today in Sligo too. 18c. One of our best of the Summer thus far.

CrowdedHouse

Wasn't there several days last July when we had 28+, I don't remember a kerfuffle about it 😎

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338435#Comment_119338435

Yes, I remember a very warm week last year, we got to finish up at work after lunch, because it was so warm.

macvin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336897#Comment_119336897

Some of the TG4 weather girls would give her a run for her money :D

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z rolling out, looks like getting upt o 24 or 25C on Saturday, showing high 20's on Sunday ( Hi Res models showing this also ) and hitting 32C on Monday with a widespread 30C, scorcher.

Tuesday is of great interest to me with the breakdown to possible thunderstorms and heavy rain as elements of the LP move up over Ireland . The temperature charts show the initial heat decreasing where the projected thunderstorms break out and show near the midlands and East increase temperature towards the late afternoon before storms might reach there later in the evening, if the South hasn't sucked all the energy out of it 😀 but I doubt it, should be plenty of energy and moisture to carry storms up through the country.

Not sure would it be in the form of troughs, occluded front or more just a large body of moisture rich air advecting over us with a very high Theta W, moisture picked up over the sea and becoming unstable over the warm country from sometime on Tuesday ,could become quite an event. The charts below are an indication of an active event with very heavy convective rain, would leave the place steaming initially, could lead to spot or local flooding. Preliminary look at the parameters show great lapse rates, good amounts of low level shear and great Deep Layer Shear with absolutely fantastic convergence zones.

I wouldn't take the position literally or timing, these are the models latest computations ( run before this was more West ) and they will change with new data over the coming days but there is certainly a good chance of producing some memorable storms.

NOTE: I am including a discussion in this thread about the breakdown on Tues / Weds to possible thunderstorms as it is related to the heat and I think it is relevant to the thread , if the OP or Mods think it should be discussed in the Convection thread then I will happily move it 🙂

mcburns07

Jesus I hope that comes off, we’ll be ground zero here in East Cork based on those charts 🤞🏻

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119337613#Comment_119337613

Absolutely love your contributions here GL thanks, I've read a lot about meteorology but your posts often make me realise I've only really scratched the surface.

Your post rings very true here, oftentimes ssw lead to high temps here but on reflection that's been most true when it's been cloudy to the south and the mountains have eaten the cloud and left it sunny here. I suspect this weekend that there may be clouds to condense (there almost always is in Ireland) so there may be a small lee effect possibly based on my local recording experience.

I don't like the heat but I'm fascinated by the weather so the coming days are brilliant come what may.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119337905#Comment_119337905

Stephensons screens would have been used then so I presume 19th century recordings were accurate.

I think Stephensons screens are still in use now but I’m not certain?

*Stevenson’s screen

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338311#Comment_119338311

Always good to see you hop in to a snow or heat thread🙂

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338326#Comment_119338326

I know who my money is on😅

Kermit.de.frog

A couple of models eye a 27/28c max for the Greater Dublin Area on Saturday. Wouldn't surprise me. Should be a beautiful day and with prime local conditions could exceed expectations.

rovers_runner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338432#Comment_119338432

Finally 😎

Kermit.de.frog

.🙁

pauldry

Wicked clammy evening now. Its certainly an interesting period of weather coming up. ECM is even hinting at another heatwave after this one. May and June were so cold I feel there's a lot of warm days in the offing between now and September.

Little snowy old me

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338912#Comment_119338912

Interesting to hear that this blast of heat in the next few days may not be the end of summer......

Thelonious Monk

It'll get warm in Dublin but RTE and Met have it as cloudy the whole time and highs of only 24 on RTE, met has 26. I can never understand why they have totally different forecasts there as to what is produced on these boards.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119338846#Comment_119338846

*(...leaves the thread)

Danno

Wetterzentrale not showing any of the the 18z yet... Everyone using Ctrl+F5 must have killed it! :D

JanuarySnowstor

Funny with all the hype yesterday by the media, its all gone a bit flat today. I guess it's wait and see now what happens. You can't help feel its a short enough blast, basically 48 hours and back to average!

Anyway 18z gfs rolling...

Luke-m

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119339058#Comment_119339058

Those forecasts are computer generated. They are taking high level cloud into account. I’d imagine that forecasted cloud would be very thin over a lot of Ireland.

Meteorite58

ICON-EU gone up a bit again

Danno

This GFS 18z run for Sunday (6pm) - a tad cooler (1c) over the very southeast and over the east of NI. Dublin warmer by 1c.

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z for Sunday

This was the GFS 12Z for Mon will see what the 18Z comes out with.

Mon just out and this time not as high as the 12Z by just a couple of degrees

Kermit.de.frog

It does look like some local temperature records in the GDA may fall on Monday at this point.

Danno

This GFS 18z run for Monday (6pm) - Previous 33c on 12z is now 32c. Most other areas down 1c, northwestern areas down 2c, again when compared to 12z.

squarecircles

The insane number of isotherms along atlantic coastal fringes bringing temperatures down to a paultry 19 or 20 degrees.

As always in Ireland somewhere, someone has to miss out.

Atrociously piss poor disapointing temperatures on what could be a historic blistering record breaking day countrywide.

the usual pig dross so.

gas.

Danno

This GFS 18z run for Tuesday (6pm) - Eastern half of Ireland up 2c to 3c generally, western areas much as was on 12z run. Looking out into the Atlantic and the cooler air looks further west.