Flash contest -- Highest Ireland and UK temps 16-19 July

M.T. Cranium

Models and most forecasts are showing potential for record-breaking heat in the time frame of Sunday 17th to Tuesday 19th in the UK and possibly also in Ireland (more likely to be confined to Sunday-Monday here).

This contest will be mainly about the maximum to be recorded in Ireland and I have widened the net to 16th to 19th just in case. No need to specify locations or times but mention them if you wish. Optional, add a value for the UK, again timing and location not required.

Note __ the contest closes at noon Saturday, any entries time stamped after that will not be ranked.

Regarding the UK portion of this, there was a similar contest (already closed) on Net-weather and yours truly is in with 40.3 which I said would be on Monday in Herts, reason being that the contest when announced cut off the time on Monday so if the peak is Tuesday that will be too bad for the entrants. I would say from a casual reading the consensus of about 100 entries is around 39 C. In our version of the contest you have Tuesday available to consider.

The Ireland portion of this (or the main event) will be based on official reporting stations only, as listed on the met.ie website and as normally shown under current weather and then yesterday's weather for daily summaries. This may be a moot point because it's hard to beat two or three of these locations even on a larger grid of stations. We've had discussions on this forum about Shannon being a bit of a hot spot in situations where it is getting the maximum available heating, due to proximity of sensors to tarmac. Other locations that often run warmer than most would include Mountdillon, Oak Park and the Dublin area stations notably but not always confined to Phoenix Park.

Good luck if you do enter. Once again, the deadline is Saturday at noon (the highest value is not expected to be Saturday but in case it is, I didn't want any nowcasts to win).

Neddyusa

32.4C. Mt Dillon. Monday

JanuarySnowstor

35.2C Oakpark

42.4C UK

esposito

33.7 C for Ireland

39.6 C in the UK

pauldry

32.1c Shannon

39.9c Heathrow

CirrusBusiness

33.8C Oakpark, Ireland

41.3C Peterborough, UK

sryanbruen

31.8C Mt Dillon

39.0C Cambridge

Little snowy old me

30.2 Oakpark

37.4 Heathrow

M.T. Cranium

I should mention that anyone can revise closer to the deadline by edit or new post and I will only track the last known positions of each entrant. Ties will be broken by order of entry (which includes new times of edits but avoid that problem by checking the entries and choosing a new unique value). If ties are based on equal errors on either side of a result, then that kind of tie will stand as a tie.

I won't change these even if they look improbable by Friday night, as I expect by then most values will have an owner.

30.7 Ireland and 40.3 UK

Oscar Bravo

30.5C @ Mount Dillon

38.7C UK

tiegan

29.9C Ireland

37.2C UK

Artane2002

32.1C Shannon

39.2C Cambridge

WJL

33.5 Oak Park Mon 18

39.1 UK

Danno

Shannon 32.7c Monday; Oak Park 32.9c Tuesday.

38.6c Brize Norton (UK)

• Interestingly, I think Wales will set it's 'national' record with 35.4c coming in there.

Bsal

32.0 Ireland

39.2 UK

HorseSea

31.5c Ireland and 39.2 UK.

Supercell

30.4 Elphin, Co Roscommon, 38.2 Biggin Hill or somewhere nearby UK

Only one person so far forecasting an Irish record yet quite a few forecasting UK ones.

StevenToast

33.1 Shannon

40.2 Heathrow

sydthebeat

32.8 Ireland

41.6 uk

Little snowy old me

I'm changing mine....

29.8 Oakpark

36.2 Heathrow

zisdead

32.2. Monday , Casement

sryanbruen

Just a note to some of those predicted locations, Gravesend station in Kent closed in August 2018 and Elphin in Roscommon closed sometime in 2016.

DOCARCH

31.3c IRL (Athenry)

39.2c UK

Billcarson

32.8c for ireland

39.4c for the UK

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330274#Comment_119330274

Thanks sryanbruen, so in that case I'll go with :

Mt Dillon 30.4, Roscommon and 38.2 Biggin Hill or somewhere nearby UK

Chris_5339762

31.5c for Shannon

41 for the UK, probably Heathrow

WJL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330034#Comment_119330034

Suppose the plume of heat is 95% certain to arrive in the southern UK. We're at a 60% chance the 20c uppers hit us.

Gonzo

32.9C Shannon on the Monday (IE)

33.5C Churchtown on the Monday (IE) unnofficial station won't be counted.

39.6 Heathrow on the Tuesday (UK)

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries

(entries are still welcome, this is to help you avoid already chosen values, and to help me with the eventual workload of this table of entries ... I will keep an eye out for revisions ... noting only the temps predicted for the contest, locations and dates will not be ranked ... this table may be repeated with more entries about once a day until deadline Saturday noon.

The table goes in order of Ireland maxima, UK will not necessarily follow same order.

Number in brackets is post number, which is not quite order of entry since some may revise and other posts may not contain entries. This is to settle ties but it remains the obligation of the entrant not the organizer to monitor for duplicate entries made before your own which automatically means you cannot win the contest -- ties created by equal errors from two different values will count as ties regardless of order of entry. )

FORECASTER _________ Ireland ___ UK

January Snowstorm (3) _ 35.2 ____ 42.4

CirrusBusiness (6) ______33.8 ____ 41.3

esposito (4) ___________33.7 ____ 39.6

WJL (13) _____________ 33.5 ____ 39.1

Rougies (36) __________ 33.5 ____ 38.5

StevenToast (18) _______33.1 ____ 40.2

Danno (14) ___________ 32.9 ____ 38.6

Gonzo (28) ___________ 32.9 ____ 39.6

sydthebeat (19) ________32.8 ____ 41.6

Billcarson (24) _________32.8 ____ 39.4

neddyusa (2) __________32.4 ____ -- --

zisdead (21) __________ 32.2 ____ -- --

Little Old Snowy Me (35)_ 32.2 ____ 38.4

Pauldry (5)* __________ 32.1 ____ 39.9

Artane2002 (12) _______ 32.1 ____ 39.2

bsal (15) _____________ 32.0 ____ 39.2

YanSno (33) ___________31.9 ____ 41.2

sryanbruen (7) _________31.8 ____ 39.0

HorseSea (16) _________31.5 ____ 39.2

Chris_5339762 (26) ____ 31.5 ____ 41.0

Larbre34 (32) _________ 31.5 ____ 39.3

DOCARCH (23) ________ 31.3 ____ 39.2

gameoverdude (30) ____ 30.8 ____ 41.5

M.T. Cranium (9) _______30.7 ____ 40.3

Oscar Bravo (10) _______30.5 ____ 38.7

Supercell (17) _________30.4 ____ 38.2

tiegan (11) ___________ 29.9 ____ 37.2

_______________________

There are already several entries that are duplicates of earlier ones. Later in each case needs to revise to remain eligible for first place. (edit _ oddly there are now several more despite this notice _ check the list above and see if you repeated an earlier submitted forecast)

gameoverdude

Irl - hot, too damn hot (for me). 30.8

Eng - scorcio. 41.5

CirrusBusiness

My UK temp in the table needs correcting M.T. 41.3 for UK temp as per original post. You have it in as 31.3 in the table of entries. Thanks

M.T. Cranium

Fixed that one, just to clarify, contest still open for entries, try to choose a value not already taken.

Contest closes Saturday noon. Entries now submitted can be revised, but you take the order of entry of your last revision.

Larbre34

Mullingar, Ireland, Monday 18th July - 31.5C

Northolt, UK, ditto, 39.3C

I can't see the UK breaching 40 at an official weather station, I just don't think the heat in the ground and nighttime temps will have time to build up during this relatively short hot spell.

YanSno

31.9c Ireland

41.2 UK

pauldry

I changed a location MT but not values. So my entry is fine as is.

Little snowy old me

I'm going to change mine. I was being very cautious earlier but after another day of model agreement (and in some cases upgrades regarding temperatures) and the Met Eireann advisory, I believe we have a chance, albeit, a small, one of a record temperature on Monday. However, I remain cautious so here are my predictions. I won't change them again.

Oak Park 32.2

Heathrow 38.4

Rougies

Ireland: 33.5 (Casement 5pm reports Monday)

UK: 38.5 ;)

Hairypoppins

34 casement aerodrome, 40 Cambridge in the uk

Rougies

updating my Ireland value to 33.6 (didn't see 33.5 was already taken)

Gaoth Laidir

30.9 (Dunsany)

39.1 (Heathrow/Northolt/St. James' Park).

Rebelbrowser

31.7 Shannon on Monday (6pm)

40.3 Heathrow on Tuesday

Jpmarn

Will temperature records be broken?

Ireland 33.5

UK 39

200motels

33.2 Ireland 39.1 UK

MoodeRator

33.1c Mt Dillon

41.3c Heathrow

rovers_runner

Shannon 33.4

London 42.0

Banarol

Gurteen 30.6

UK 39.0

Kermit.de.frog

25c Heathrow

39.9c Athenry

🤭

Just kidding.

39.7c Heathrow

33.5c Athenry or Shannon

snowstreams

39.3 Heathrow

32c Athenry on Monday

Elmer Blooker

UK 38.8 Mount Dillon

Irl 31.8 Cambridge

sunflower3

Ireland 33.1

UK 39.0

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries (2nd edition)

(entries are still welcome, this is to help you avoid already chosen values, and to help me with the eventual workload of this table of entries ... I will keep an eye out for revisions ... noting only the temps predicted for the contest, locations and dates will not be ranked ... this table may be repeated with more entries about once a day until deadline Saturday noon.

The table goes in order of Ireland maxima, UK will not necessarily follow same order.

Number in brackets is post number, which is not quite order of entry since some may revise and other posts may not contain entries. This is to settle ties but it remains the obligation of the entrant not the organizer to monitor for duplicate entries made before your own which automatically means you cannot win the contest -- ties created by equal errors from two different values will count as ties regardless of order of entry. )

FORECASTER _________ Ireland ___ UK

January Snowstorm (3) _ 35.2 ____ 42.4

Hairypoppins (38) ______34.0 ____ 40.0

CirrusBusiness (6) ______33.8 ____ 41.3

esposito (4) ___________33.7 ____ 39.6

Rougies (39) __________ 33.6 ____ 38.5

WJL (13) _____________ 33.5 ____ 39.1

jpmarn (42) ___________33.5 ____ 39.0

Kermit de frog (47) _____ 33.5 ____ 39.7

rovers_runner (45) _____ 33.4 ____ 42.0

highdef (57) ___________33.3 ____ 40.5

200motels (43) ________ 33.2 ____ 39.1

StevenToast (18) _______33.1 ____ 40.2

MoodeRator (44) _______ 33.1 ____ 41.3

sunflower3 (50) ________33.1 ____ 39.0

Danno (14) ___________ 32.9 ____ 38.6

Gonzo (28) ___________ 32.9 ____ 39.6

sydthebeat (19) ________32.8 ____ 41.6

Billcarson (24) _________32.8 ____ 39.4

neddyusa (2) __________32.4 ____ -- --

Pherekydes (54) _______ 32.3 ____ 39.1

Appledrop (59) ________ 32.3 ____ 39.2

zisdead (21) __________ 32.2 ____ -- --

Little Old Snowy Me (36)_ 32.2 ____ 38.4

__ Con Sensus (median)_ 32.1 ____ 39.3

Pauldry (5) ___________ 32.1 ____ 39.9

Artane2002 (12) _______ 32.1 ____ 39.2

bsal (15) _____________ 32.0 ____ 39.2

snowstreams (48) ______ 32.0 ____ 39.3

YanSno (34) ___________31.9 ____ 41.2

sryanbruen (7) _________31.8 ____ 39.0

Elmer Blooker (49) ______31.8 ____ 38.8

GalwayGaillimh (58) ____ 31.8 ____ 38.3

Rebelbrowser (41) ______31.7 ____ 40.3

almostthere12 (56) _____31.7 ____ 39.9

HorseSea (16) _________31.5 ____ 39.2

Chris_5339762 (26) ____ 31.5 ____ 41.0

Larbre34 (33) _________ 31.5 ____ 39.3

DOCARCH (23) ________ 31.3 ____ 39.2

fryup (52) ____________ 31.0 ____ 39.0

Gaoth Laidir (40) _______30.9 ____ 39.1

gameoverdude (30) _____30.8 ____ 41.5

Adam240610 (55) ______30.8 ____ 40.1

M.T. Cranium (9) _______30.7 ____ 40.3

Banarol (46) __________ 30.6 ____ 39.0

Oscar Bravo (10) _______30.5 ____ 38.7

Supercell (17) _________30.4 ____ 38.2

tiegan (11) ___________ 29.9 ____ 37.2

Old Rio (53) ___________28.6 ____ 41.2

_______________________

47 entries so far, median for Ireland 32.2, 45 entries with UK max, 39.3 is median there.

Entries can still be submitted until Saturday noon. Will edit some into this table if possible then repeat the updated final version on Saturday.