August 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) which is the average of temperatures at Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The recent 30-year average for that is 15.1 C.
2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at regular reporting sites for Met Eireann as reported on their website under "yesterday's weather" and confirmed later in their publication Monthly Summary.
3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, otherwise same as 2 above)
4. Predict the PRC (rainfall) as a percentage of normal values averaged for eleven sites, the five mentioned in q1 above and also Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Cork, Valentia and Johnstown Castle.
5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values, from observations at six locations.
6. BONUS _ A real short-range challenge for you this time, maximum total rainfall Monday - Tuesday 1-2 Aug as reported by the various regular reporting sites, from 0100 Monday to 0100 Wednesday as the day is actually 00z to 00z and we're on daylight saving time. So to be clear, we're looking for the highest total for Monday and Tuesday at any given location, not the total of the highest daily amounts at two different locations. Will just score the amounts, you can give a location if you wish. There are perhaps two parts to the rainfall event so anyway, I seem to be in some system here where the website is pre-arranging these paragraphs by number, which I had not asked it to do, nor do I have time to decode and change it, the next paragraph I hit will say 7 but there is no actual seventh question ...

Well I decoded it accidentally then, by hitting return twice, no more indented points. Whatever. The deadline is 0300h Monday 1st August. For the bonus, I will try to alert late regular entrants to post as quickly as possible but some reduction of total bonus score may be involved if the rainfall already known to have fallen by their late entry makes their prediction appear more accurate. I will play that as it comes, try to enter this on time. Good luck!

My own entry will occur fairly close to the deadline this time, as for NormaL, their bonus prediction will be the GFS output from the 00z Aug 1st model run.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_________15.8 _ 28.1 _ 3.1 _ 90 __ 110 ______ 15mm Shannon Apt

dasa29

Dasa29_________15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 90 __ 100 ______ 25mm Mullingar

Danno

Danno _________15.7 _ 31.4 _ 2.8 _ 140 __ 70 ______ 18mm Mace Head

pauldry

Pauldry _________15.3 _ 28.8_ 2.1_ 124__ 93 ______ 42mm Sherkin

Bsal

Bsal_________15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 110 __ 88 ______ 22mm

Joe Public

Joe public___15.8__28__2.9__99_99___19mm Valentia

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________15.3 _ 28.2 _ 3.4 _ 103 __ 97 ______ 16mm Valentia

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Láidir_____15.4____25.8___-1.1___114%___92%___35.5mm Valentia

esposito

Esposito_____15.9___28.8___2.1___108___102___32mm Valentia

John mac

john mac______15.4 _ 26.8 _ 4.9 _ 105 __ 98 ______ 24mm newport

sunflower3

Sunflower3_________15.9_ 29.1_ 4.8 __ 92____108__ 26mm Valentia

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.6 ___ 28.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 85 ___ 115 ___ 32mm.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ______ 16.2 _ 29.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 105 __ 28.5 mm

NormaL ___________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 25 mm (12z GFS)

I was going to post NormaL's prediction from 00z but as half the field have already entered, I will go with the 12z output. The GFS maximum grid point 25 mm is near Mace Head. I would imagine Newport might be the actual location.

Will post updates on actual amounts together with any necessary info on late entrant score capping as needed tomorrow. If a late entry occurs before very much rain has fallen, the cap will be 8/10 as an augmented late penalty. If a late entry can make use of intermediate data, then I will have to assess the advantage gained and remove it from potential scoring.

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___15.7__28.3___2.8___74____110___33mm Valentia

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___________15.9 _ 28.3 _ 4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 20mm Newport

waterways

waterways _________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 083 _ 111 __ 17.7 Mace Head (not Valentia, not Shannon)

dacogawa

Dacogawa ______ 16.0 _ 29.8 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 102 __ 35.1 mm Valentia

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  ___________15.9 _ 29.2 _ 2.5 _ 75_ 95 __ 38 mm Valentia

appledrop

Appledrop___15.4__27.5__3.5___85___90______25mm Valentia.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___________16.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.0 _ 81 _ 104 __ 23 mm Mace Head

adam240610

Adam240610______15.1_ 27.9 _ 2.8 _ 120 __ 100 _____ 23mm Mace Head

mrskinner

Skinner 15.5___25.5___3.5___95___95___25 Valentia.

200motels

200motels----------- 15 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 91 _111 __13mm Shannon

pauldry

Interesting track of rain seems a lot coming in line from Mayo to Sligo so may see a high total here in Sligo but Finner may be too far North to report and Markree too far inland so I'll report the Town figure. So far only 1.5mm but its lashing.

M.T. Cranium

Noted some hourly temps at 4 C overnight.

pauldry

Newport reporting 18.7mm on 1500 hourly so a clear lead with about 22mm there so far.

Could be an error though we'll find out later

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119415400#Comment_119415400

Met have confirmed it.

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1554119830298628096?s=21&t=5icRyA3gnIEQbFrBg6TY_Q

pauldry

Yes add another 10.7mm and its a case of how much with showers soon following in the clearance.

Jpmarn

Counted to about 35mm rain in Newport that doesn’t include the 1800 report.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2022

Apparently there has already been at least 46 mm rain at Newport. Therefore it is possible to score the bonus question as shown.

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain 1-2

___________________________________________________ bonus score

M.T. Cranium ________16.2 _ 29.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 105 __ 28.5 ___ 7

Tae laidir ___________ 16.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.0 _ 081 _ 104 __ 23.0 ___ 4

Dacogawa __________ 16.0 _ 29.8 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 102 __ 35.1 __ 10

waterways __________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 083 _ 111 __ 17.7 ___ 2

Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 29.2 _ 2.5 _ 075 _ 095 __ 38.0 __ 10

Sunflower3 _________ 15.9 _ 29.1 _ 4.8 _ 092 _ 108 __ 26.0 ___ 7

Esposito ____________15.9 _ 28.8 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 102 __ 32.0 ___ 8

Artane2002 _________ 15.9 _ 28.3 _ 4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 20.0 ___ 3

sryanbruen __________15.8 _ 28.1 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 15.0 ___ 1

Joe public __________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 19.0 ___ 3

Danno _____________ 15.7 _ 31.4 _ 2.8 _ 140 _ 070 __ 18.0 ___ 2

Mr stonewall ________ 15.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.8 _ 074 _ 110 __ 33.0 ___ 8

___ Con Sensus ______15.7 _ 28.1 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

Kindred Spirit _______ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 115 __ 32.0 ___ 8

Bsal _______________15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 110 _ 088 __ 22.0 ___ 4

Dasa29 ____________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

MrSkinner __________ 15.5 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 095 _ 095 __ 25.0 ___ 6

Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 090 __ 25.0 ___ 6

john mac ___________15.4 _ 26.8 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 098 __ 24.0 ___ 4

Gaoth Láidir ________ 15.4 _ 25.8 _-1.1 _ 114 _ 092 __ 35.5 ___ 9

Pauldry ____________ 15.3 _ 28.8 _ 2.1 _ 124 _ 093 __ 42.0 __ 10

DOCARCH __________ 15.3 _ 28.2 _ 3.4 _ 103 _ 097 __ 16.0 ___ 1

Adam240610 ________15.1 _ 27.9 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 100 __ 23.0 ___ 4

___ NormaL _________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

200motels __________ 15.0 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 091 _ 111 __ 13.0 ___ 1

sryanbruen

Knew I should have changed my entry yesterday. Never underestimate how wet Newport gets.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1554220984198209540?s=20&t=T11dCm1sIFEi2HCywpYNcg

M.T. Cranium

So, much like my third, fourth, sixth and eleventh marriages, this bonus question is over before most had left the parking lot.

Since there has now been more rain at Newport than our highest forecast(s), I can already score the bonus question, and I did (see table of forecasts).

20th time lucky? I hope so.

DOCARCH

47.5mm at Newport yesterday!

pauldry

While doing well on bonus for once I think I've completely underestimated how warm August is going to be. Next week looks one of the best of the Summer and high temperatures will dominate most of August.

M.T. Cranium

3.8 at Mountdillon on 1st August. Probably won't survive to end but who knows ...

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 15.0, 0.5 below normal.

MAX ?? MIN 3.8

PRC 72% of normal.

SUN 142% of normal (850/600)

BONUS already scored (see table of forecasts), Newport had over 50 mm 1-2.

Tae laidir

Moore Park and Oak Park 24.9 yesterday.

pauldry

Max will be at least 29c by the end of the weekend.

Tae laidir

Moore Park 27.4 yesterday.

Danno

Oak Park 29.2c in front now.

DOCARCH

Oak Park seems to have been revised (for yesterday) to 29.1c

All academic as I am sure that will be easily beaten today/in the coming days.

pauldry

30.5c Oak Park today.

DOCARCH

31.7c at Oak Park yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Second month in a row where MAX exceeded all forecasts although Danno was closer to this one than Gonzo was in July, if I apply the rule as written though, Danno's 31.4 is 0.1 out of the "hammer" zone for reducing minimum progression boost values. Felt bad about it in July when it was a larger miss, but rules need to be applied as written I suppose. It means basically the chase pack will come in with almost full points despite being that far behind (29.8 for Dacogawa and 29.5 by MTC were the next highest forecasts). The rule as written is that a raw score of 18-20 (or any other category within 2 of maximum) invokes the hammer, where boosts are cut in half. I could change this in some way for the next forecast contest year (the minimum progression has been around about as long as I have, the hammer was brought in after some number of years, can't remember the details). I suppose a better hammer concept might be to reduce the force of it by 1 point for each interval, so in this case you would get 60% of your boost, if somebody scored 16/20 then 70% and by 13/20 as best raw score, no reductions would apply. If I applied that here, for example, dacogawa would have 12 points rather than 19 and I would have 11 instead of 18 (our raw scores are 1 and 0, which is where the hammer starts from, let's say somebody else had said 31.0 for 13 raw score, then their reduction would only apply to the range above 13 and would be fairly small anyway, the worst they could do is 17/20). But in any case, that would be for the future situations that are similar to this. Quite often when there has been a "hammer" in play, it has fallen on a group of raw scores that have given half the field some sort of head start so the overall effect of it has rarely been to go 20 10 9 8 7 etc (in this case), it has been more like 20, 15, 13, 11, 9, 8, 7 etc. Not that I have been keeping very precise stats on these situations.

Now as to IMT, I see that as of Friday 12th, the IMT had risen to 16.1 and if today's average is 20 then it would be 16.4 after 13 days. There is no real potential for a hammer situation to develop with IMT. When the raw scores descend by small differentials, the hammer can only come into play in a situation where raw scores are all very close to minimum progression. Otherwise the top forecast would probably be outside the hammer range. At the moment, with top IMT forecast at 16.2, it's not that clear that the outcome is going to be outside the range of forecasts, thinking that the IMT will remain on 16.4 after Sunday 14th, so the last 17 days of August would need to average at least 16.0 to keep the outcome as high as 16.2, and that's perhaps a bit higher than current guidance although not much higher.

Other category hammer potential at this point, MIN has already fallen below highest forecasts so there could only be a hammer if the result is around 2.1 (three forecasts at that value) or around -1.1 (one forecast GL at that value). The 2.1 hammer is inconsequential as raw scores would be almost the same as min progression anyway, if that hammer was valid (1.9 to 2.3). The lower one would certainly be valid, can only be applied with an outcome -0.9 to -1.3. (NormaL has 1.5 but normal does not factor into this, only after the fact, for example NormaL does not have hammer potential here, full minimum progression would be applied if the outcome gave normal a raw score of 18-20).

For PRC, which has been running low, there is a weak hammer for Mr Stonewall at 74%, weak because the raw scores that would exist if that hammer came into play would be close to the minimum progression values anyway. At the top end, Danno has 140% and that could produce a full hammer outcome if we get anywhere near that much rain. The current GFS runs to almost the end of the month and shows an average rainfall of about 30 mm which combined with what has already fallen would suggest PRC would be near 80% by 29th.

There is no hammer available for SUN with the distribution of forecasts, one at 115% and a bunch around 110%, and at this point the lower forecasts are already out of play (SUN must be pretty close to a guaranteed 70% at end of month even if it stayed cloudy all the time from tomorrow on).

M.T. Cranium

Valentia has had an astounding 308% of normal sunshine in the past week (6th-12th), the six station average was 257%. With a bit more cloud around on Sunday 14th, week two will not quite average that high but certainly over 200%, so what I said in the previous post needs to be amended, the amount of sunshine so far (week one was also quite sunny) will probably guarantee an above normal outcome no matter how low the values are in weeks three, four and the 29th-31st.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 16.8, second week average 18.6, 3.2 above normal.

MAX 31.7 MIN 3.8

PRC 52% of normal, the week very dry at 14% of normal. (est 65% by end of today)

SUN 194% of normal, with the weekly average a stupendous 245.5% (1473/600).

BONUS heavy rainfall 1st-2nd already scored in table of forecasts

The sunshine required for an outcome of 115% (our highest forecast) is a mere 30% of normal 15th-31st.

The rainfall required for an outcome of 74% (our lowest forecast) after today's adjustment is 85% of normal, while that may match some current model output only 135% is now needed to reach normal.

appledrop

M.T, the rainfall totals today is some areas are going to be unreal.

Will be some interesting statistics tomorrow.

New Ross is currently flooded.

pauldry

Dublin Airport 55mm but is that not included in rainfall in contest and only Casement?

M.T. Cranium

Yes, Dublin A is not part of our 11-station grid, and only Oak Park and Valentia in that grid had much to add to Casement, so I think my earlier estimate is a bit high, the current value is probably around 50 to 55 per cent after today. It would be 65 if Dublin was part of the grid.

There are a few more chances for rain this month, but we could end up getting the soft hammer from Mr Stonewall. Never know, we've had other months that change quite abruptly near the end with a deluge that is more widespread.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT back down to 16.3, the third week at 15.1, 0.1 above normal. Model runs continue to suggest rather warm at times towards end of month, but this seems likely to edge back into the 15.7-15.9 range.

MAX 31.7 and MIN 3.8 _ MAX no doubt set, MIN could have a bit of a challenge later this week.

PRC now 63% of normal, with the past week at 82%. __ GFS suggests this will be around the outcome too, let's say 65%.

SUN at 166% of normal, even this past week stayed above normal (110%). The outcome is now guaranteed to be at least 140% even with just half the normal amount rest of the way, or 115% if complete cloud cover 22nd-31st. I would expect closer to 155%.

The bonus question was scored right away and I had to stop and think what it was. Max rainfall 1st-2nd.

Just eyeballing the table of forecasts, would say the highest estimated score would be around 75 for dacogawa, can't see too many others over 60 as many who did okay on IMT and MAX have little to add from the rest.