2022 Hurricane season

Gaoth Laidir · 21-08-2022 12:28am #1

2022 is proving to be a very quiet year globally so far, with all metrics well below the LTA to date.

The Atlantic, widely forecast to be a very active season, has been almost dormant up to now. ACE is running at just 15% of the LTA, Named Storm Days at just 21%. No hurricanes have formed. The media have been awfully quiet about this.

The NW Pacific is doing only slightly better. The NE Pacific is the only basin showing any real activity in terms of ACE and NSD. The Indian Ocean has had a few more weak named systems that haven't contributed much to ACE, which still remains below LTA.

All data from here.

It looks like the Atlantic may finally be waking up from its slumber, with "Potential Tropical Cyclone" Four having formed in the western Gulf of Mexico but not amounting to much as it moves inland over Mexico. Further east, the MDR may show signs of developments, though at the moment no more than a 20% chance in the next 5 days.

Danno · 21-08-2022 1:56pm

Was thinking the same myself - there has been no mention of storms which by now should be well underway. Is the lack of storms giving us a good August?

Gaoth Laidir · 21-08-2022 9:50pm

The MJO has been very non-descript over the past few weeks but is forecast to increase in amplitude in Phase 1/2 over the next few weeks, climatologically the busiest period of the season. I don't think the lack of storms has had much of an impact on our weather.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-08-2022 1:13pm

You'd think you'd hear about this positive news in the media but no, it doesn't suit. Only bad news fills headlines.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1562039133698002944?t=dU1iEcY4Aft_ptMlD6aXtQ&s=19

cheezums · 23-08-2022 2:22pm

Would a slowdown in the Gulf Stream possibly have any relation to something like this?

Gaoth Laidir · 23-08-2022 3:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119510793#Comment_119510793

No, the upper trough has been strong this year.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1562040646604443649

Gaoth Laidir · 24-08-2022 10:57pm

Still no activity in the Atlantic. Total ACE of 2.8 is now just 12% of the LTA (23.5).

Very little activity is being forecast by the ECM over the next month. Very low probabilities of Tropical Storm (named systems) and zero chance of Hurricanes. We would really need an insanely hyper October and November to get anywhere close to the hyperactive season that had been forecast.

Link: ECMWF | Charts

Danno · 25-08-2022 12:10am

Interesting - the longer it stays quiet, the longer Summer rolls on here I'd say. At this rate it will be mid-late October before the Arctic is cool enough to kick off strong depressions at our latitudes.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-08-2022 12:20am

The western North Pacific has also been very quiet.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1562027528847405056?t=5brLTsMSypeTd0YvaJpMFQ&s=19

Birdnuts · 26-08-2022 1:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119511011#Comment_119511011

I wonder is that also a factor in the exceptional strength and Northerly extent of the monsoon season across parts of Asia and Africa this summer???

Oneiric 3 · 26-08-2022 3:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119523215#Comment_119523215

If you watch Eric Snodgrass's regular updates, he did speak of Saharan dust being a possible factor for suppressing hurricane development a month or so back. I think once this season gets going though it will get going with a bang, but sure, we'll see.

Danno · 27-08-2022 8:18pm

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1563547601781198851

Interesting.

Rikand · 28-08-2022 1:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119530588#Comment_119530588

1982 and 1997 both stayed quiet into September and beyond. But 1961 woke up in September.

It's still got a chance :)

PokeHerKing · 29-08-2022 1:31pm

Starting to look lively now

Gaoth Laidir · 29-08-2022 1:47pm

Now

Gaoth Laidir · 01-09-2022 12:41pm

Finished August and seasonal ACE to date ended up just 7% of the LTA. Named-storm days just 13%. The whole northern hemisphere is remarkably quiet, well down on all metrics.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1565006485041516544

TD Five has now formed in the mid-Atlantic and is expected to become named later today and up to an 80-kt hurricane in a couple of days.

The other two systems may become Tropical Depressions in the next couple of days, though the one further east is expected to quickly dissipate.

Gaoth Laidir · 01-09-2022 5:26pm

TD Five has now become TS Danielle, the first named system since July 2nd.

pad199207 · 01-09-2022 8:46pm

I must say Danielle already looking impressive

pad199207 · 02-09-2022 7:53am

Danielle up to 65mph now

pad199207 · 02-09-2022 3:50pm

Strengthened to Hurricane Status now

Gaoth Laidir · 11-09-2022 12:45am

We're bang on the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season now, so how are we doing?

Earl has now completed extratropical transition and the Atlantic looks quiet for the next few days after briefly waking up from its July and August slumber to bring us two hurricanes, Danielle and Earl, to add to the previous three weak systems. On all metrics the season has been well below par.

The next two weeks don't seem to show any signal for the type of hyperactivity that is required to prevent this year's seasonal forecasts from becoming one of the more spectacular busts.

star gazer · 15-09-2022 3:28pm

TS Fiona is forecast to have significant wind shear, some dry air and land interaction to keep it from rapid development. Some strengthening still expected.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/150856.shtml?

star gazer · 17-09-2022 6:50pm

TS Fiona could now make it to Hurricane strength by the time it comes near Puerto Rico where it looks set to become a very serious rain event with 300mm up to 500mm maximum in isolated areas. With reduced land interaction, Fiona is now forecast to strengthen further to a Category two Hurricane by day five. There is a chance it strengthens much faster in the next day or so:

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer 
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several 
days.  In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment, 
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a 
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.  There is 
some uncertainty as to how quickly Fiona can take advantage of 
these favorable conditions given its current structure.  But either 
way, intensification is anticipated, and Fiona is likely to be near 
or at hurricane strength while it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday. 
The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous 
prediction, but it still lies below the intensity consensus aids.  
If Fiona gets better organized today, then it's possible that 
additional increases to the intensity forecast will be forthcoming 
later today.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/171455.shtml?

JanuarySnowstor · 17-09-2022 8:42pm

No serious hurricane to hit the US now for several years.

Luck or weather modification?

igCorcaigh · 17-09-2022 10:24pm

Is there another thread for Pacific typhoons, or does this thread cover them too? This storm Nanmadol that will hit Japan looks like a monster.

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1571244600571969537

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62938608

Gaoth Laidir · 20-09-2022 9:53pm

Fiona has become a Cat 3 100-kt major hurricane as it moves northwest away from the Turks and Caicos islands.

TD Eight has become Tropical Storm Gaston this evening. Currently 35 knots, it's not expected to reach hurricane force before becoming extratropical as it nears the Azores by the weekend.

TD Nine has an 80% chance of forming near the Windward islands in the next 5 days.

Gaoth Laidir · 21-09-2022 8:42am

Global stats to date. Everywhere is well below the long-term averages (in brackets), except for the one weak named system in the SW Indian Ocean. Source.