2022 Hurricane season

Gaoth Laidir

An interesting paper on how coastal downwelling of sea water can intensify slow-moving or large tropical cyclones that would otherwise weaken due to windshear, dry-air-entrainment, etc. It particularly applies to storms with land to their right (e.g. Ian).

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/QSPFSFUVB7XGCF2YHH7A?target=10.1029/2021GL096630

Key Points

Hurricanes approaching land tend to force downwelling over ocean shelves, especially when they move toward or with the coast to their right

Coastal downwelling sustains warmer shelf sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), even when storm-induced ocean mixing might otherwise cool SSTs

Sustained shelf SSTs increase heat and moisture fluxes contributing to larger or slower-moving hurricanes' intensification near landfall.

Plain Language Summary

We examined forecasts for three hurricanes in 2020 that intensified near landfall. Using a coupled air-sea hurricane model, we found that tropical storm-force winds blowing parallel to the coast forced water near the ocean surface to move toward shore. Winds often blow parallel to the coast when tropical cyclones (TCs) (hurricanes) are near land. The model showed that this movement of water toward shore caused water levels to rise near the coastal boundary - a process called coastal Ekman convergence. This convergence forced water downward along the sloping seafloor and back away from shore, forming a circular exchange of water between the shelf and the open ocean; this exchange is called coastal downwelling. We demonstrate that incipient coastal downwelling brought warmer surface water over the shelf, heating and adding moisture to the air and thus providing more energy to these TCs. We further show that this additional energy provided by coastal downwelling can contribute to intensification of larger or slower-moving TCs before landfall. This result suggests that it is important to validate the modeling of coastal downwelling in future forecast models, in order to reliably forecast TC intensity near landfall.

traco

Finally got in touch with a good few friends there. Thankfully all are OK but many have lost their cars. This would be Naples to Bonita Springs.

I'm just trying to get me head around the recovery logistics of this event and it's insane. Maybe I can relate because I know the ara very well.

Firstly anyone that was flooded has lost probably lost their vehicle. There is little to no public transport. So how to get transport to begin the recovery or even getting basic supplies of food without a car. There will be ,000's of cars needed almost instantly.

Then everything on ground level has been destroyed with salt water and a silty mud. So the streets are lined with couches, floors, plaster board etc that has all been thrown out to try and begin the drying process. This will be millions of tons of material that needs to be collected nd dumped. Then they need to get new plasterboard, flooring, paint, furniture etc. And this is only the houses that are fully intact and just flooded. The ones that sustained major damage are a whole other level of material and resources.

In many area it seems power and water infrastructure has been destroyed so needs to be replaced. Some friends who's condo on the beach in Naples is intact with no damage think it will be a year before the neighborhood is habitable with the restorated facilities and effectively they be it good. The situation in Fort Myers etc is 100 times worse.

As I said it's more understandable to me and I understand and can relate to the area but I'm shocked at scale and immensity of the damage.

On another note maybe someone can clarify. I am seeing these blobs on googlr maps and don't understand them. I wonder if the grey / beige overlays relate to flood areas. Can't figure it out online but in messaging people it does seem to be that way.