September 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. IMT (long term average 13.1)
2. MAX (any location on met.ie website)
3. MIN (same)
4. PRC (% of normal)
5. SUN (% of normal)
6. BONUS _ Total rainfall 2nd-3rd, maximum value, location bot required. ...

The usual deadlines and penalties apply.

M.T. Cranium ___________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.8

NormaL _______________ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 25.0 (current guidance)

Note that any rain on 4th will not count towards this bonus question outcome, totals from daily weather summaries published on met.ie website.

Apologies for being a bit late with this, I was thinking it was the 29th for some reason this morning so I was planning this post time all along. D'oh.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___________ 13.4 _ 24.9 _ 0.9 _ 135 _ 90 ___ 35.1

pauldry

pauldry ___________ 13.8 _ 26.3_ 1.8_ 178 _ 100___ 42mm

Added some extremes for a laugh

Bsal

Bsal _______________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 90 ___ 22.0

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___________ 13.7_ 26.1 _ -1.5_ 135 _ 90 ___ 28.1

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_______________ 14.2 _ 26.8 _ +1.5 _ 115 _ 120 ___ 55.5

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 13.1° ___ 25 ___ 1.5 ___ 142 ___ 95 ___ 38mm.

Artane2002

Artane2002 _______________ 13.5 _ 25.3 _ 1.3 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 41

John mac

john mac _______________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.7 _ 98 _ 101 ___ 47.0

just to clarify is this the total rainfall for ALL the stations combined for 2 days ? so for yesterday 30th , would be 0.3mm

edit... re-read rainfall bonus... changed totals as a result , (newport )

dasa29

Dasa29 ___________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 40.0

Gonzo

Gonzo _______________ 13.6 _ 25.3 _ -1.2 _ 143 _ 106 ___ 35.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___________ 13.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 29.8

waterways

waterways __________13.7_ 24.7 _ -0.7 _ 102 _ 107 __ 44

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall_______14.1___25.6____1.9___112___110___46.5

appledrop

Appledrop___13.6___25.5____+0.5___145__85_38

Tazio

Tazio __________ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 36

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____________ 14.0 _ 26.1 _ 2.6 _ 140 _ 95 ___ 38.5

adam240610

Adam240610__13.1 _ 25.5 _ -0.9 _ 180 _ 73 ___ 44mm (high number means it won't rain for electric picnic right?)

Joe Public

Joe Public ___________ 13.2 _ 23.2 _ 1.1 _ 110 _ 109 ___ 35.5

mrskinner

Skinner____13.9____25____1____90____100____45

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___________ 14.1 _ 26.0 _ -0.5 _ 108 _ 104 ___ 48mm (mostly on the 3rd...)

Danno

Danno ___________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ 3.7 _ 135 _ 115 ___ 29.7

200motels

200motels _ 13.5 _ 23.9 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 93 ___ 32.3

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for September 2022

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Rainfall 2-3

Jpmarn ___________ 14.2 _ 26.8 __ 1.5 _ 115 _ 120 ______ 55.5

Dacogawa _________ 14.1 _ 26.0 _ -0.5 _ 108 _ 104 _____ 48.0 

Mr stonewall _______ 14.1 _ 25.6 __1.9 _ 112 _ 110 _____ 46.5

Tae laidir __________ 14.0 _ 26.1 __2.6 _ 140 _ 095 ____ 38.5

Danno ____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 __3.7 _ 135 _ 115 ___ 29.7

MrSkinner _________ 13.9 _ 25.0 __ 1.0 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 45.0

pauldry ___________ 13.8 _ 26.3 __ 1.8 _ 178 _ 100 _____ 42.0

Sunflower3 ________ 13.7 _ 26.1 _ -1.5 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 28.1

waterways _________ 13.7 _ 24.7 _ -0.7 _ 102 _ 107 _____ 44.0

Appledrop __________13.6 _ 25.5 __0.5 _ 145 _ 085 ____ 38.0

Gonzo ____________ 13.6 _ 25.3 _ -1.2 _ 143 _ 106 ____ 35.0

___ Con Sensus ____ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 0.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 38.0

M.T. Cranium _______ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 32.8

john mac __________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.7 _ 098 _ 101 _____ 47.0

Artane2002 ________ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 1.3 _ 125 _ 090 _____ 41.0

Dasa29 ____________13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 40.0

200motels __ (-2) ___ 13.5 _ 23.9 __1.2 _ 130 _ 093 ____ 32.3

sryanbruen _________13.4 _ 24.9 __0.9 _ 135 _ 090 ____ 35.1

Bsal ______________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 22.0

DOCARCH _________ 13.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 29.8

Joe Public __________13.2 _ 23.2 __ 1.1 _ 110 _ 109 ____ 35.5

Adam240610 _______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -0.9 _ 180 _ 073 _____ 44.0

NormaL ___________ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 25.0

Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 25.0 __ 1.5 _ 142 _ 095 ____ 38.0

Tazio _____________ 12.0 _ 23.0 __ 2.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 36.0

_________________________________________

23 forecasts, the consensus is for a rather warm, wet month with average sunshine. The bonus question rainfalls are shown with some stagger effect to make the range easier to spot.

Good luck this month.

appledrop

22.8 starts us off for Max on 1st Sept.

Obviously we hope it will be beaten, but just in case we better note it!

pauldry

For the rainfall bonus Claremorris is currently 17mm today so far. I'll write an update later if no one else does.

pauldry

As a final summary after day 1 of bonus Knock leads the way on 20mm

Tomorrow sees a few more batches of rain but the late evening one will probably add a lot more to the West figures though some of it is due after midnight too so won't be on the bonus.

M.T. Cranium

Yes my time frame sort of went out of focus after I set up the question, it had been looking like one complete event ending late Saturday then another one Sunday-Monday, but now there are some indistinct boundaries in the timing. Oh well, I think the question will still be largely decided on the basis of what falls in the first half of Saturday along with this rain already in the gauge.

pauldry

14.2mm in Valentia the last hour.

M.T. Cranium

Here are the stats for the 2nd ... now with the 3rd added ...

Malin Head ___3.6 + 24.0 = 27.6

Markree _____17.7 + 8.1 = 25.8

Newport _____11.7 + msg est 12 mm ** = 24 est

Ballyhaise ____0.3 + 21.4 = 21.7

Knock _______20.0 + 1.3 = 21.3

Valentia ______4.7 + 16.5 = 21.2

Claremorris __ 18.2 + 1.8 = 20.0

Mace Head ___ 5.0 + 14.7 = 19.7

Belmullet ____17.3 + 2.3 = 19.6

Dublin A ___Tr (0.0) + 19.5 = 19.5

Phoenix Park __ 0.0 + 17.6 = 17.6

Oak Park _____ 0.1 +16.4 = 16.5

Dunsany ______0.2 + 15.9 = 16.1

Casement __Tr (0.0) + 15.3 = 15.3

Sherkin ______ 5.6 + 9.4 = 15.0

Mullingar _____ 1.5 +12.1 = 13.6

Johnstown C __ 0.3 + 11.5 = 11.8

Roches Pt ____ 8.4 + 2.0 = 10.4

MtDillon ______1.6 + 8.4 = 10.0

Gurteen ______3.0 + 6.8 = 9.8

Moorepark ____6.2 + 2.6 = 8.8

Cork ________ 7.3 + 1.2 = 8.5

Athenry ______7.0 + 0.5 = 7.5

Finner _______ 4.6 + 2.5 = 7.1

Shannon _____ 0.4 + 0.4 = 0.8

** Newport missing data, had a look at radar loop, my estimate for 3rd is 12 mm, which would be below the total for Malin Head. Some thunderstorms developed, that may be the reason for the missing data (power outage?) ... Mace Head had perhaps a bit more than Newport from the radar loop. Have a look (48h radar loop gives enough coverage) and see what you think. Maybe we will get some data eventually.

____________________________

will look at the scoring results later today perhaps.

M.T. Cranium

Some heavy rain moving onto the southwest coast, it occurs to me that the day might run 01h to 01h (00z to 00z), so this coming hour while appearing under the 4th on the reporting format might appear under the 3rd for "yesterday's weather." Sherkin Island may turn out to be proof of that point.