September 2022 Boards weather forecast contest
Comments
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I edited in the Saturday 3rd rainfalls to the earlier list for Friday 2nd, and Malin Head at 27.6 mm appears to be tops, although Newport had missing data and could be close. But based on 27.6 mm, this would be the scoring for the bonus question (note that only one forecast from Bsal, in addition to "NormaL" based on model prediction, was below the outcome):
Sunflower3 ________ 28.1 ___ 10
Danno ____________ 29.7 ___ 10
DOCARCH _________ 29.8 ___ 10
___ NormaL ________25.0 ___ 10
200motels _________ 32.3 ___ 09
M.T. Cranium _______ 32.8 ___ 09
Bsal ______________ 22.0 ___ 09
Gonzo ____________ 35.0 ___ 08
sryanbruen ________ 35.1 ___ 08
Joe Public _________ 35.5 ___ 08
Tazio _____________ 36.0 ___ 08
Appledrop _________ 38.0 ___ 07
Kindred Spirit ______ 38.0 ___ 07
___ Con Sensus ____ 38.0 ___ 07
Tae laidir __________ 38.5 ___ 07
Dasa29 ___________ 40.0 ___ 06
Artane2002 ________ 41.0 ___ 06
pauldry ___________ 42.0 ___ 06
waterways _________44.0 ___ 05
Adam240610 _______44.0 ___ 05
MrSkinner _________ 45.0 ___ 05
Mr stonewall _______ 46.5 ___ 04
john mac __________47.0 ___ 04
Dacogawa _________ 48.0 ___ 04
Jpmarn ___________ 55.5 ___ 03
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(scores do not go all the way down to zero or even one because of that burst of heavy rain within the first six hours after the forecast period, I thought perhaps it would be fair to elevate the scoring for the higher forecasts which were not as far off the outcome as they would be if it had stayed dry then, also it was difficult to find large gaps in the forecast groups ... if Newport does eventually report, the scoring would likely stay the same if it failed to increase the maximum by more than 2-3 mm anyway, but I will check back for reports for a few more days just in case.)
8 -
After the first week ...
IMT was 15.1 which was 1.0 above normal.
MAX 22.8, MIN not tracked yet.
PRC 293% of normal
SUN 99% of normal (593/600)
BONUS 27.6 mm already scored above
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MIN of 5.4 at Mountdillon on 10th is probably the lowest so far. Not expecting it to hold up though.
5 -
After two weeks (a bit late ...)
IMT 14.8 (second week 14.5, 0.8 above normal)
MAX 22.8 MIN 5.1 (14th, Mountdillon) _ but MIN already down to at least 4 C at several locations early 16th.
PRC now 212% of normal with the second week at 130% (wet southeast, dry northwest).
SUN 95% of normal with the second week at 90% (540/600), Valentia kept it respectable with 142%, the other five locations all below normal.
The rainfall on 2nd - 3rd was already scored and I just checked to see if missing data for Newport (3rd) has been posted, but not so far.
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on4 -
Mountdillon at zero C both 0400 and 0500, may go lower before sunrise. Markree had 1 C also.
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Min confirmed as - 0.5 at Mt. Dillion for 17th.
3 -
After three weeks ...
IMT 14.1, third week average was 12.6, 0.5 below normal.
MAX 22.8 and MIN -0.5
PRC now 146% with the second week dry, only 15% (by end of 21st, if I included the rain that has fallen in the grid today, this would be closer to 50%) .. PRC would then be about 157%. If it stays fairly dry to end of the month, this will end up only slightly above normal.
SUN has edged above normal to 103% with the third week 120% of normal (721/600). This may fall back a bit by end of the month.
3 -
Isn't precipitation close to 150 of normal already even if there's zero rainfall for rest of month. Or maybe I'm confusing the way the rainfall is calculated. If its an aggregate as opposed to a singular station method maybe there's an outcome I'm unaware of. Still I'm sure I'll learn as we finish the month.
After today for example Oak Park has had over 200 percent of the rainfall it normally gets for the whole of September. Belmullet around 75 percent but most of the other 9 are well over 100 percent of their monthly totals.
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Good job we made a note of that Max at start of Sept as looks like that's as high as we will get.
Unusually to have such a low max for Sept and so much rain but sure its Ireland our good luck had to run out after a fantastic summer.
1 -
My weekly reports are meant to apply to the time elapsed so far, so the report of "now 146%" and estimated 157% were for the periods 1-21 and then 1-22 Sep. If there wasn't much additional rainfall, that 157% would gradually deflate down towards 115% but since I posted the trends have been wetter anyway and I don't think the 157% will deflate. But the 157% through 22 days only guarantees a minimum outcome of
(22*157 + 0 )/30 = (3454/30) = 115%
If the estimate is changed to 50% then the equation becomes
(22*157 + 8*50)/30 = 3854/30 = 128.8%
and if the last days manage a normal amount (for those eight days) then it's
(22*157 + 8*100)/30 = 4254/30 = 141.8%
The same is true of sunshine reports, there we had a 21-day report of 103% so that if the last nine days averaged 70% (my current guess) then the outcome is
(21*103 + 9*70)/30 = (2163+630)/30 = 2793/30 = 93.1% of normal.
As to the ongoing IMT that is also the average for the three weeks followed by an average for the week just ended. I get the differences from normal for the weekly values from the Ag Report and I don't currently mention the ongoing anomaly of the multi-week average although if you look back at the three weekly reports and take the average of those weekly anomalies that would likely be within 0.1 of the ongoing anomaly (I think September's normal IMT was given as 13.1, it stands to reason that 1-21 Sep will be a bit warmer than the month, maybe 13.7 or so, and the ongoing average of 14.1 is therefore 0.4 above normal for that period (but 1.0 above the end of month normal).
This is not some personal MTC quirk, all climate tables for partial months have that format when they do reference normals to date. For example if you look at any CF6 report for a U.S. location, the mean temperature to that date is followed by an anomaly, which is calculated from data for the same period, not a reference to end of month anomaly.
Also if you look at the CET (UK) averages they will show an anomaly relative to the running average in the data set to the last day of data, so today's report (today being 24th) to the 23rd says 15.5 C for the CET and that is 2.0 above normal but for the period 1-23 Sep, not 1-30 Sep. Oddly the UKMO who run the Hadley CET stick to the 1961-90 normals for their anomaly reporting, while the US NWS has already moved on from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020. I think that the anomalies currently reported on the met.ie site in various products are relative to 1981-2010, they have not "introduced" 1991-2020 normals yet. Same could be said for Canadian data reporting, still using 1981-2010 normals. I can tolerate the gradual introduction of 1991-2020 but find the 1961-90 base for the CET to be odd to say the least, that "normal" climate period is almost entirely before the AGW signal hit the tables around the late 1980s. I may not live to see what normal period goes next with them, surely 1971-2000 (which nobody ever references) has to be given its time in the spotlight there? Or will they jump straight into 1981-2010? Frankly, they should, otherwise just about every month is going to come out above normal.
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Why is the average based on a rolling 30 year average?
Why not expand it to 40 year? We have the data.
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A "Climatological normal" is defined as thirty years and was formally brought into use in the mid-1930s and has been used since:
Climatological normal - Wikipedia
Also, just to add - as a climatological observer myself and 12 years through the 30 years it takes to build up a record, I don't fancy another ten added on! :D
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Tazio has a hammer on us with 23.0 for MAX, the interesting factor there (as Tazio is not a regular entrant and cannot win the annual contest) is that the actual result of his hammer may be to drop September scores enough to make the month a dropped score for most. Not sure if there are any fairness factors in play there or not. Will run the scores both ways and see what it actually means for the contest.
Any PRC hammer would be a weak one as we have forecasts around 140 and also higher (170 to 180) but a lot of people went 120 or higher anyway. The hammer there could be a little bit of a factor though, no hammer would exist if the outcome settles into the middle of that gap (probably 155 is the middle of a narrow range for that).
Looking at the forecasts, I think Gonzo might have one of the higher scores. The IMT is going to drift down to around 13.3 or 13.4 I believe.
6 -
After four weeks ...
IMT on 13.4, after a weekly average of 11.4 which was 1.0 below normal for the week; the IMT could fall to 13.3 by end of the month.
MAX 22.8 and MIN -0.5 seem set now.
PRC had fallen to 136% of normal with the week at 106%, but rain expected on Friday will probably give an outcome close to 155%.
SUN was on 101% with the fourth week 92% of normal. This seems likely to drop off slightly but perhaps not enough to go below 98%.
I will wait until the first of October to do a preliminary scoring estimate as the PRC numbers may or may not invoke any changes to how the minimum progression would occur. But as we're going to be waiting until the 4th for confirmation via the MS, I will post some estimated scores.
The October forecast thread has opened, if you can find it among all the other threads.
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The IMT finished on 13.3 and PRC appears to be around 145% of normal. SUN likely stayed close to 100%.
I will work up some preliminary scoring from the data I have estimated (or confirmed) later today.
4 -
Here we go with the early look at scoring. I will need to wait for the MS (on fourth ?) to check the stats. Made one "executive decision" about the MAX scoring which requires minimum progression. Tazio had the hammer on us, but is not a regular entrant therefore cannot rank in the annual contest. To keep the September scores in a more similar range to other months, I have gone with the regular boost for MAX, and awarded Tazio a bonus five points (plus the two he received from the boost) to maintain his relative score for the month compared to the other forecasters. It's not so much a rule made during play as a rule that I hadn't really considered as an issue until it happened. As far as the contest is concerned, the only real impact of this will be that fewer forecasters will be dropping their September score. Joe Public was moved up in the boosted progression to maintain equity as his "hammer" score was not going to be affected as much as the rest.
The table is left in the same order as the forecast table for now. An adjusted table will be posted around the 4th of October.
Preliminary Scoring for September 2022
FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS ____ TOTALS
___ Estimated data _ 13.3_22.8_-0.5_145_100 _ 27.6
Jpmarn ___________ 16 _ 01*_ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 ______ 31
Dacogawa _________ 17 _ 04*_ 20 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 57
Mr stonewall _______ 17 _ 06*_ 00 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 39
Tae laidir __________ 18 _ 03*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 50
Danno ____________ 18 _ 06*_ 00 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 52
MrSkinner _________ 19 _ 13*_ 05 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 05 ______ 52
pauldry ___________ 20 _ 02*_ 00 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 42
Sunflower3 ________ 21 _ 03*_ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 64
waterways _________21 _ 15*_ 18 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 05 ______ 69
Appledrop _________ 22 _ 07*_ 10 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 68
Gonzo ____________ 22 _ 11*_ 13 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 77
___ Con Sensus ____ 23 _ 11*_ 07 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 07 ______ 65
M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 09*_ 15 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ______ 72
john mac __________ 23 _ 09*_ 08 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 04 ______ 54
Artane2002 ________ 23 _ 11*_ 02 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 58
Dasa29 ____________23 _ 17*_ 15 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 76
200motels __ (-2) ___ 23 _ 18*_ 03 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 __ 72-2=70
sryanbruen _________24 _ 14*_ 06 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 72
Bsal ______________ 25 _ 17*_ 05 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 69
DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 12*_ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 60
Joe Public __________24 _ 20*_ 04 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 67
Adam240610 _______ 23 _ 07*_ 16 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 05 ______ 59
NormaL ___________ 23 _ 07*_ 10 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 60
Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 13*_ 00 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 66
Tazio _____________ 12 _ 20*_ 00 _ 02 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 52+05=57
_________________________________________
Minimum progression was applied to MAX and considered for PRC. A hammer situation arose in both of them, only applied to PRC (see note above the table). Several MIN scores were zero but not enough to invoke a boost (one third of scores must require, or actual scoring progression must be lower than usual, it was basically similar to most other months except for the zero scores).
The raw scores for PRC were all within a very similar progression to the minimum progression even before a reduction for the hammer, therefore it turned out that the PRC scores were not adjusted. If the MS gives a different outcome it seems unlikely that the scores would change much as most of them could then qualify for the boost and remain similar.
(min prog before adjustment would be 15,14,13,12,11,10,09,08,08,07,07,06,06,05,05,04,04,03,03,02,02,01,01 for 23 scores)
===========================
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Rainfall 2-3
Jpmarn ___________ 14.2 _ 26.8 __ 1.5 _ 115 _ 120 ______ 55.5
Dacogawa _________ 14.1 _ 26.0 _ -0.5 _ 108 _ 104 _____ 48.0
Mr stonewall _______ 14.1 _ 25.6 __1.9 _ 112 _ 110 _____ 46.5
Tae laidir __________ 14.0 _ 26.1 __2.6 _ 140 _ 095 ____ 38.5
Danno ____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 __3.7 _ 135 _ 115 ___ 29.7
MrSkinner _________ 13.9 _ 25.0 __ 1.0 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 45.0
pauldry ___________ 13.8 _ 26.3 __ 1.8 _ 178 _ 100 _____ 42.0
Sunflower3 ________ 13.7 _ 26.1 _ -1.5 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 28.1
waterways _________ 13.7 _ 24.7 _ -0.7 _ 102 _ 107 _____ 44.0
Appledrop __________13.6 _ 25.5 __0.5 _ 145 _ 085 ____ 38.0
Gonzo ____________ 13.6 _ 25.3 _ -1.2 _ 143 _ 106 ____ 35.0
___ Con Sensus ____ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 0.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 38.0
M.T. Cranium _______ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 32.8
john mac __________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.7 _ 098 _ 101 _____ 47.0
Artane2002 ________ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 1.3 _ 125 _ 090 _____ 41.0
Dasa29 ____________13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 40.0
200motels __ (-2) ___ 13.5 _ 23.9 __1.2 _ 130 _ 093 ____ 32.3
sryanbruen _________13.4 _ 24.9 __0.9 _ 135 _ 090 ____ 35.1
Bsal ______________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 22.0
DOCARCH _________ 13.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 29.8
Joe Public __________13.2 _ 23.2 __ 1.1 _ 110 _ 109 ____ 35.5
Adam240610 _______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -0.9 _ 180 _ 073 _____ 44.0
NormaL ___________ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 25.0
Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 25.0 __ 1.5 _ 142 _ 095 ____ 38.0
Tazio _____________ 12.0 _ 23.0 __ 2.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 36.0
_________________________________________
6 -
Posting this draft version of what I hope will be the final scoring table, MS has not popped yet ... mostly I need to confirm that SUN is 100% or close enough that scores won't change. The confirmed scoring is now in order but otherwise maintains the preliminary scoring, except that I discovered an error in addition for DOCARCH who had 70 points and not 60 as shown there. (any mod is welcome to edit that in the other table but no urgent need to do so) ... if I do have to change anything in these tables I will do it by edits after 1100h and will note the types of changes that were required (or will indicate that no changes were needed). Later edit _ no changes to scoring, the MAX was given as 22.7 rather than 22.8 as we were tracking, makes no difference to the need for minimum progression scoring anyway. The SUN was 98% of normal, which also changed no scores from the 100% estimate.
Congrats to Gonzo and dasa29 for a solid showing in September.
Confirmed scoring for September 2022
FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS ____ TOTALS
___ Confirmed data _ 13.3_22.7_-0.5_145_098 _ 27.6 mm
Gonzo ____________ 22 _ 11*_ 13 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 77
Dasa29 ___________ 23 _ 17*_ 15 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 76
sryanbruen _________24 _ 14*_ 06 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 72
M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 09*_ 15 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ______ 72
DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 12*_ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 70
200motels __ (-2) ___23 _ 18*_ 03 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 72-2=70
waterways _________21 _ 15*_ 18 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 05 ______ 69
Bsal ______________25 _ 17*_ 05 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 69
Appledrop _________ 22 _ 07*_ 10 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 68
Joe Public __________24 _ 20*_ 04 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 67
Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 13*_ 00 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 66
___ Con Sensus ____ 23 _ 11*_ 07 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 07 ______ 65
Sunflower3 ________ 21 _ 03*_ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 64
___ NormaL _______ 23 _ 07*_ 10 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 60
Adam240610 _______23 _ 07*_ 16 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 05 ______ 59
Artane2002 ________ 23 _ 11*_ 02 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 58
Dacogawa _________ 17 _ 04*_ 20 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 57
Tazio _____________ 12 _ 20*_ 00 _ 02 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 52+05=57
john mac __________ 23 _ 09*_ 08 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 04 ______ 54
Danno ____________ 18 _ 06*_ 00 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 52
MrSkinner _________ 19 _ 13*_ 05 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 05 ______ 52
Tae laidir __________ 18 _ 03*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 50
pauldry ___________ 20 _ 02*_ 00 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 42
Mr stonewall _______ 17 _ 06*_ 00 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 39
Jpmarn ___________ 16 _ 01*_ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 ______ 31
_________________________________________
Minimum progression was applied to MAX and considered for PRC. A hammer situation arose in both of them, only applied to PRC (see note above the earlier posted preliminary scoring table -- the actual forecasts can also be found there). Several MIN scores were zero but not enough to invoke a boost (one third of scores must require, or actual scoring progression must be lower than usual, it was basically similar to most other months except for the zero scores).
The raw scores for PRC were all within a very similar progression to the minimum progression even before a reduction for the hammer, therefore it turned out that the PRC scores were not adjusted. If the MS gives a different outcome it seems unlikely that the scores would change much as most of them could then qualify for the boost and remain similar.
Annual Scoring Summary Jan to Sep 2022
The table order changes this month to the best 7/9 rankings. Ranks for total score continue to be shown and compared to previous month. (contest is eventually decided on best 10/12).
Congrats to Appledrop for continuing to lead the way, with the new format the top ten looks more different than the changes of ranks, as it is now based on the best 7/9 ... that has allowed sunflower3 and Gonzo who missed one contest to move up to a more representative location in the table. ... most forecasters retained the Sep score in their best 7/9, a few with scores 50 or lower did not and thus utilized an earlier higher score than Sep to stay in touch with the chase pack. ... I continue to show the alternate results for Danno in August which despite being 26 net points only moves Danno up a few spots in both total score and best 7/9, but will continue to track that for general interest. ... 200motels has already missed 3 (now also Oct) but would not have moved past anyone in the top 21 even with a 100 added in any of those three.
Total score _______________________________________________________________ Best 7/9 (table based)
Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ___ Jan_Feb_Mar _Apr _May_Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep __TOTAL //_ (rank) (prev)
_01 _ (01) __Appledrop _______67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 _79 _ 89 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 __ 624 __ 512 (1) _ (1)
01.7_(01.8) ___ Con Sensus ___80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 _61 _ 70 _ 64 _ 64 _ 65 __ 607 __ 490 (1.9)_(2.5)
_04 _(t05) __Kindred Spirit ____80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 _55 _ 63 _ 63 _ 78 _ 66 __ 588 __ 487 (2) _ (4)
_t07 _(04) __Mr stonewall _____67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 _68 _ 73 _ 43 _ 73 _ 39 __ 568 __ 486 (3) _ (2)
_05 _ (02) __ Tae laidir _______70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 _76 _ 64 _ 64 _ 68 _ 50 __ 587 __ 485 (t4) _ (3)
_02 _ (03) __ Bsal ___________61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 _73 _ 71 _ 68 _ 55 _ 69 __ 601 __ 485 (t4) _ (5)
_03 _ (07) __sryanbruen ______65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 _65 _ 67 _ 83 _ 65 _ 72 __ 591 __ 484 (6) _ (t6)
_11 _ (11) __DOCARCH ______ 78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 _61 _ 78 _ 42 _ 55 _ 70 __ 558 __ 469 (t7) _ (12)
_19 _ (19) __Gonzo __________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 _65 _ 63 _ 70 _ --- _ 77 __ 512 __ 469 (t7) _ (13)
_16 _ (16) __sunflower3 ______77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 _66 _ 59 _ --- _ 72 _ 64 __ 527 __ 468 (9) _ (t10)
_06 _(t05) __MrSkinner ______ 63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 _66 _ 70 _ 55 _ 56 _ 52 __ 574 __ 467 (t10) _ (8)
_10 _ (08) __Pauldry _________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 _64 _ 75 _ 61 _ 50 _ 42 __ 559 __ 467 (t10) _(t6)
_09 _ (10) __dacogawa _______78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 _56 _ 77 _ 48 _ 77 _ 57 __ 564 __ 466 (12) _ (9)
_t07 _(09) __Artane2002 _____ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 _60 _ 51 _ 68 _ 72 _ 58 __ 568 __ 462 (13) _(t10)
_13 _ (14) __M.T. Cranium ____ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 _46 _ 79 _ 45 _ 71 _ 72 __ 543 __ 459 (14) _(t14)
_12 _ (13) __Dasa29 _________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 _65 _ 63 _ 47 _ 64 _ 76 __ 552 __ 455 (15) _(17)
_17 _ (12) __Jpmarn _________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 _44 _ 54 _ 71 _ 76 _ 31 __ 516 __ 441 (16) _(t14)
_18 _(t17) __john mac________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 _54 _ 73 _ 29 _ 46 _54 __ 514 __ 439 (17)_ (16)
_15 _(t17) __waterways ______ 65_ 45 _ 47 _ 69 _54 _ 56 _ 51 _ 73 _ 69 __ 529 __ 437 (18) _ (18)
14.0_ (18.6)__ NormaL ______ 60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 _55 _ 77 _ 38 _ 37 _ 60 __ 506 __431 (18.8)_(17.7)
_14 _ (15) __Joe Public _______50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 _53 _ 57 _ 71 _ 58 _ 67 __ 532 __ 429 (19) _ (21)
_20 _ (20) __adam240610 ____ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 _47 _ 76 _ 55 _ 45 _ 59 __ 493 __ 422 (20) _ (20)
_21 _ (21) __Danno _________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 _57 _ 46 _ 80 _ 53 _ 52 __ 482*__ 417*(21) _(19)
_22 _ (22) __200motels ______ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 _--- _ --- _ 76 _ 45 _ 70 __ 371
_23 _ (23) __esposito ________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ 58 _ --- __ 110
_24 _ (24) __Gaoth laidir _____--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ 36 _ --- __ 106
_25 _ (26) __Tazio __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ 48 _ --- _ 57 __ 105
_26 _ (25) __Bazlers ________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 56
==================================================
* Danno would have 506 total points and 441 for best 7/9 counting the alternate Aug score, and rest of field generally 2 pts lower.
Updated category scoring January to September 2022
FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj
__ Max possible _________225 _180 _180 _135 _90 __ 90+ ____ 900 _ 900
Appledrop _____________196 _106 _ 111_ 88_ 61 __ 63*_____ 625 _ 624
___ Consensus _________195*_113 __ 97 _ 75 _ 63 __ 64 _____ 607 _ 607
Bsal __________________186 _118 _104*_ 69 _ 57 __ 67 _____ 601 _ 601
sryanbruen ____________181 _ 131 __80 _ 76 _ 68 __ 55 _____ 591 _ 591
Kindred Spirit __________188 _108 __ 87 _ 86*_ 60 __ 59 _____ 588 _ 588
Tae laidir ______________194*_ 98 __ 92 _ 79 _ 62 __ 62 _____ 587 _ 587
Mr Stonewall ___________175 __92 _ 110 _ 74 _ 62 __ 55 _____ 568 _ 568
MrSkinner _____________193 __ 84 __ 81 _ 88 _ 67*__61 _____ 574 _ 574
Pauldry _______________186 _ 107 __ 93 _ 50 _ 62 __ 62 _____ 560 _ 559
Artane2002 ___________ 192 __ 95 __ 91 _ 69 _ 58 __ 63*_____ 568 _ 568
Dacogawa ____________ 199 __ 99 _ 102 _ 51 _ 57 __ 56 _____ 564 _ 564
DOCARCH _____________178 _112 __ 87 _ 69 _ 55 __ 57 _____ 558 _ 558
Dasa29 _______________176 _107 __ 82 _ 71 _ 59 __ 60 _____ 555 _ 552
M.T. Cranium __________ 180 _ 84 __ 86 _ 67 _ 62 __ 64 _____ 543 _ 543
Joe Public______________177 _105 __ 95 _ 65 _ 53 __ 38 _____ 533 _ 532
waterways _____________186 _100 __ 69 _ 66 _ 70 __38 _____ 529 _ 529
Sunflower3 ____________165 _100 __ 74 _ 79 _ 52 __ 57 _____ 527 _ 527
Jpmarn _______________165 __ 86 __ 66 _ 82 _ 58 __59 _____ 516 _ 516
John mac _____________ 193 __ 74 __ 80 _ 59 _ 61 __ 48 _____ 515 _ 514
Gonzo ________________156 _116*__ 73 _ 62 _ 54 __ 51 _____ 512 _ 512
__ NormaL ____________158 __ 85 __ 51 _ 70 _ 67*__75 _____ 506 _ 506
adam240610 __________ 169 __ 88 __ 88 _ 53 _ 46 __ 53 _____ 497 _ 493
Danno _______________ 145 _ 112 __ 73 _ 65 _ 37 __ 53 _____ 485 _ 482
(Danno alt ____________ 145 _ 112 __ 73 _ 79 _ 47 __ 53 _____ 509 _ 506)
200motels _ (6/9) ______ 115 __ 84 __ 48 _ 56 _ 44 __ 35 _____ 382 _ 371
esposito _ (2/9) _________ 46 __ 31 __ 03 _ 08 _ 09 __ 13 ______110 _ 110
Gaoth Laidir _(2/9) _______39 __ 18 __ 03 _ 14 _ 11 __ 21 ______106 _ 106
Tazio ___ (2/9) __________26 __ 38 __ 20 _ 02 _ 16 __ 13 ______115 _105
Bazlers _ (1/9) __________ 24 __ 07 __ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56
=====================================
Alternate scoring lines for Danno, see discussion on August scoring for background (affects only PRC, SUN)
In the category scoring, bold shows first place in that category, bold italic shows second, an asterisk denotes third.
For PRC, two are tied first so one score is shown third with asterisk (no score indicated as second).
There are two forecasters tied for third in BONUS scoring.
There was an error in the previous table (Aug category scoring) ... this copy :
<< There is a tie for second in SUN so there is no designated third place score with an asterisk. Also NormaL joins that tie for second.>>
should have indicated a tie for third including SUN. This error has been fixed in the current table where SUN is still tied for third.
Normal has a score equivalent to first in Bonus and tied third for SUN.
Con Sensus has a tied second for BONUS, and in total scoring (second alone). Total scores are not coded however. Also Con Sensus would rank third for IMT.
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on6 -
Thank you MT for an incredible level of detail and explaining the scoring.
Also, thanks for allowing us non regulars to enter the fray! It's very enjoyable.
Cheers Tazio
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