FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Next Sunday is currently looking very warm indeed for the time of year where 17 to 19C is possible if there is decent spells of sunshine. However this plume of warm air is likely to get swept eastwards very quickly with an approaching deep area of low pressure to our west.
We are too far out from next Sunday to establish when this area of low pressure with all it's rain will sweep across Ireland, could be a dry and warm day but it could also be cooler and wet if the models bring this area of low pressure in sooner. Will have to wait a few days.
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A final blast of Autumnal warmth this Friday and Saturday before the Atlantic changes the angle of attack next week. It seems the mild south-southwesterlies which have given us a milder and wetter Autumn for alot of the season are about to be replaced by more west to northwest airflows next week looking at recent GFS outputs.
A little after mid-month we could see something more of a game changer as the jet stream looks like nose-diving into the Med as per the chart below for November 20th. A nice development for those who prefer colder weather in November:
Hopefully, this is the trend to a different weather pattern in the medium term.
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What could a change in pattern lead to, well the below is from the GFS 6z, the new parallel run backs it up to a degree as well. However, of course it is way out in FI and the GFS has been all over the place after 7 days as have all the other models recently.
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Holding the wet and blustery look for next week and temperatures in general falling back to more normal. Models differ greatly in how active it will get and timing from very windy /stormy to just gales and some active blustery frontal passages. Rainfall totals keeping that look we have seen now for a number of weeks with Atlantic coastal counties leading the way with accumulations and far less towards the East.
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The cooling trend looks to be holding in the main models, Atlantic still producing plenty of LP's and frontal activity with accompanying rainfall. Temps look like around 8 to 10C by day in general bit more around the coasts and when fronts are initially going through, much cooler nights in low single digits, could even see frost perhaps .
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Very high rainfall totals from the GFS 06Z this morning, holding a cooler theme, ECM not as cool and not as wet, the GFS is usually the more conservative rainfall predicter, will see what comes out tonight.
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The GFS 12z is even wetter than the 6z which Meteroite posted above. Some very high possible rainfall totals over the coming 10 days particularly across western and northern as well as central areas.
It will also turn much cooler from tomorrow and while temperatures will be close to normal for the rest of the month, we will feel the chill after an exceptionally mild to warm first half to November.
The GFS 12z also has some potentially stormy weather brewing deep in FI.
No shortage of rainfall, wind and generally mild/average temperatures to come over the next 2 weeks. While mild, these temperatures combined with all the unsettled conditions will make it feel much cooler than what we've been used to over the past 5 months.
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ECM more seasonal temperatures with a few warm sectors going through fairly quickly, showing some very cold nights at the end of the run . GFS and ECM showing an active Atlantic will see if any system has the potential to become stormy.
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Models showing potential for strong winds at times towards the end of next week as deep LP's move close to us, more so from the GFS, plenty of rainfall accumulations also especially in the Western half due to weather coming in off the Atlantic. Sketchy charts with a lot of change coming as colder airs get into the mix . No big cold outbreak to be seen as yet but there will be cooler interludes with a few cold nights but still a lot of mixing going on as the Atlantic remains mobile I reckon.
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Last night's 00z GFS run throws up this:
Quite a cool arctic blast in those 850s
But what really catches my eye is the main bulk of the jet is diving for Morocco coming out of the USA and Canada with an isolated and separated but potent arm coming south from Greenland and Iceland. This could whip up a few polar lows if the setup holds for any decent stretch of time. Plenty of high pressure to our west to keep the flow going.
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