Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn2022
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After a relatively warm day on Saturday, getting up over 20C in places, we get a warm plume of high ThetaW up over us later Sat /early Sun until later Sun night. Temps relatively high later Saturday into Sun with increasingly high Dp's probably up to 17C or so. Big warm moist frontal airmass with some embedded convection with thunderstorm potential coming in from the SW overnight Sat into Sun. If thunderstorms do occur, notwithstanding the fact that it will be a fairly messy profile with very little surface CAPE and mostly mid level CAPE and skinny at that, so from my reading they could be of the elevated type and isolated perhaps.
Will see what the charts look like tomorrow, bit of a spread yet on rainfall totals and track of fronts.
Feeling warm and humid on Sunday.
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Dan Holley in Convective Weather highlighting possibility along the SE later. ECM predicting some very heavy convective showers with some thunderstorm possibility along the S and SE later this afternoon into the evening and perhaps inland also along coastal counties?? Marginal I would think, Elevated if they do occur I reckon, interesting nonetheless.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Sep 2022
ISSUED 08:18 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
A humid airmass will expand across the British Isles on Sunday and Sunday night, accompanied by pulses of showery rain spreading erratically northwards across northern and western areas in particular. Some weak instability is likely at times, and may encourage some heavier convective rainfall to develop in places. Fairly saturated profiles will tend to suppress the buoyancy of lifted parcels, however a few isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. One area of interest might be SE Ireland and adjacent Celtic/Irish Sea on Sunday late afternoon and evening hours as dry mid/upper tropospheric air overspreads the northern periphery of a 16-18C 850hPa Theta-W plume. There may be an uptick in heavy convective rainfall in this area, and one or two thunderstorms may be possible - but low confidence precludes introducing any higher threat levels. Similarly, another corridor of interest may exist from Munster to northern Leinster and across to the Isle of Man in the vicinity of a 16-18C 850hPa Theta-W tongue.
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