Odds vs Value

wylo

Im just wondering does anyone have a rough idea, on average what the true odds are VS odds offered by bookies. I know this is a super vague question, what I mean is, supposing a bookie is offering 5/1 for a football team to win, on average (very rough), what would the true likelihood of this happening be? 10/1? 7/1?

I am also aware that sometimes they get it wrong and this is how professional gamblers win, so really I more just mean as a rule of thumb I am wondering what % drop in value is being offered vs the actual likelihood of it happening in any bet.

wylo

From doing a bit of googling, it looks to be about 5% to 10% in the difference but id still love to get someones thoughts on this here.

phantasmagoria

If you calculate the overround that will tell you theoretically that if a bookmaker accepts differing stakes across all selections of a market and in a perfect combination or amounts their profit for every 100 will be x%. The x is overround percentage -100.

5/1 means 6 chances, one of which is in favour and five are against. 16.66% chance of winning and 83.34% chance of losing according to the price being offered.

Peer to peer markets will give you a better idea of true odds, but when the peer is also many times the traditional bookmaker, is it really a peer to peer exchange?

You are somewhat correct in saying that professional gamblers make their money when true odds are skewed in their favour but that is highly unlikely in WDW markets for a football game as most of the attention is there.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058263920/odds-vs-value

The odds don't just reflect the true chances of something happening, they also reflect what the market is betting on. So for example, in my lifetime England have always been around 8s to win a World Cup. This is more to do with the size of the market in England betting on England to win, as compared to somewhere like Argentina, and keeping the liability down in the, more realistic, 20/1 chance that it happens.

This is more noticeable in horse racing. The initial assessment is the horse is a 50/1 chance but as the gamble takes hold the odds drop down to 10s. The chance of the horse winning hasn't increased but the potential liability has.

jacool

One other thing to bear in mind is that when you are looking for value, ensure that its a "single" bet.

There are 100 football games every weekend. If you do your homework you can easily tease out one morsel.

Bookies love people who don't do single bets.

Look at tonight's games. There is a team who have only lost twice in 10, have beaten two of the top 10 rated European sides in their last two games, are playing at home and are 10/3 outsiders !!

+1 goal they are 5/6 a bit of "value" me-thinks!