NI Census 2021

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699383#Comment_119699383

The EU and the US will not contribute to a united Ireland in any significant way. We will remain a net contributer to the EU in the event of a united Ireland.

Apart from the huge problem of funding the rebuilding of Ukraine which will cost Irish taxpayers through this net contribution, smaller poorer countries in Eastern Europe will not agree to the funding of a united Ireland. The idea of EU contribution to a united Ireland belongs to a 1980s vision of the EU.

FraserburghFreddie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119703848#Comment_119703848

The US is also pumping money into the Ukrainian war effort,as is Britain.Its bizarre when posters present an article which is nothing more than fanciful wishful thinking(that everyone else is going to fund a UI)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119703848#Comment_119703848

The old 'can't walk and chew gum at the same time' reasoning.

Or fanciful thinking again with no back up.

The Irish government of whosoever, will be looking for 'investment' and other positive inputs.

That's all that will be required to make a success of a UI.

Nobody is proposing a magical future of 'sunny uplands', a new UI will face the day-to-day management issues we have at the moment but it will be minus the dead weight and wasted energy of a failed state.

The negativity that a No campaign will have to engage in, as evidenced across many fora here, will not work. 'No solutions' never works.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119703896#Comment_119703896

It is extremely bizarre. We are a rich country now by international standards. Why would Romania, Latvia or Lithuania agree to fund a united Ireland?

It was different when it was the 1980s EU and they were all richer than us.

It is another example of how nationalism is rooted in the past.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119703958#Comment_119703958

The fanciful thinking is that countries like Estonia, Malta, Croatia and Slovenia will agree to fund a united Ireland. That is fanciful thinking with no back-up

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651400#Comment_119651400

You are correct, that the change in identities is the big news.

There are now three minorities in Northern Ireland. The Northern Irish minority are the ones that Varadkar was appealing to with his ideas on federalism etc. He is doing more to advance the case and prospects of a united Ireland than anyone. The sectarian rhetoric around Catholics being the larger minority as put forward by SF is actually damaging to the prospects.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704005#Comment_119704005

They vote to support EU projects and investments all the time. They understand what a union is..i.e. rising tides float all boats.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704071#Comment_119704071

The 'rhetoric' relates to the question...'what is the purpose anymore of a failed state set up along sectarian lines'. Can you tell us?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704116#Comment_119704116

What??? They decide what are EU projects and investments are. The EU is the members. The members have no interest in financing a united Ireland. All of the Eastern Europeans will be demanding investment in the East because of Russia. Geopolitics has moved on since the 1980s when a Western-dominated EU was favourable to helping a poor Ireland. We are the rich of Europe who don't need a rising tide.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704147#Comment_119704147

Says who?

Where has the 'noninterest' been expressed?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704130#Comment_119704130

You are rooted in the past thinking of what happened 100 years ago. That is history, that is not the reality of today.

The reality of today is three minorities, one of whom sees itself as Northern Irish and linked to that state you called failed. That is also the minority with the youngest profile and therefore the most room to grow.

Sam Russell

The funding would not be 'for a United Ireland' but to transition a failed NI to be part of a successful United Ireland.

The EU has plenty of funding streams that would be used. For example, regional funding would be used to bring N Ireland up, as is used in other areas, and was used in NI and other regions of the UK when they were in the EU. Another stream would be CAP, and I am sure there are plenty more. It would only be us getting some of our net contributions back.

As for the USA, they could encourage FDI into NI, which could be transformative.

The question of pensions being paid from current taxes is just an accounting trick. You could also say that they are paid from current borrowing. The contributions were taken over the working life by the UK Gov, under various schemes, and should have been put into a fund, but the money was used to pay out to current pensioners, and any surplus was just used elsewhere.

Currently, if someone retired and then moved from London to Newry or Dundalk, the UK is obliged to pay the pension in both cases. Also, it is not possible to distinguish where the contributions to pensions apply for someone working in the UK, as it is a single Gov - so they like to tell us.

If an employee of, say, Sainsbury moves from London to Belfast, part of his pension is in London and part is in Belfast but all of his contributions go to the UK Gov. Again, does he get two half pensions or just one? Clearly the UK Gov cannot separate pensions and should pay for all of them.

If a person moves from the UK to Ireland, The his UK contributions come under UK rules, and the Irish contributions come under Irish rules - and he does get two pensions.

A transition set of rules would be needed following a UI.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704157#Comment_119704157

Not rooted in the past.

Those rooted in the past are those clinging to partition blanch. It has failed.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704171#Comment_119704171

(1) Yes, NI would get CAP payments, replacing British government subsidies.

(2) Regional funds, not so much, unless you count NI as a separate region within Ireland, which is something the ultra-nationalists are against because.

(3) Pensions is complicated, agreed, but in this case, the difference is that the taxes are moving as well as the expenditure.

(4) US encouraging FDI? I don't think the US Federal government has any say in where Google spends its FDI.

(5) The problem of Ukraine dwarfs that of NI, the last six months have dealt a huge blow to any fantastical notion of the EU spending money on NI. In fact, we are likely to be contributing far far more to the EU to help Ukraine than we have a chance of getting under CAP or regional funds for NI, leaving us worse off.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704180#Comment_119704180

Partition has failed for old-styled nationalists stuck in the glorified past, but for those who have now emerged as Northern Irish, many of them have a different view.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119703348#Comment_119703348

Clairvoyant Francie at it again 😂 😂 ……………We are all in safe hands as the United Islanders know exactly what the future holds.

Your user name is very appropriate

Sam Russell

@blanch152

(1) Yes, NI would get CAP payments, replacing British government subsidies.

Yes - that is true, so those UK contributions are netted off the subvention, along with many other UK contributions.

(2) Regional funds, not so much, unless you count NI as a separate region within Ireland, which is something the ultra-nationalists are against because.

Regions are defined s required for funding. NI might be divided between E and W of the Bann.

(3) Pensions is complicated, agreed, but in this case, the difference is that the taxes are moving as well as the expenditure.

Not complicated. The contributions are made from income, and are due from those contributions - nothing to do with tax.

(4) US encouraging FDI? I don't think the US Federal government has any say in where Google spends its FDI.

New FDI can be encouraged, existing FDI can be encouraged. The USA Federal Gov manage to do quite a bit when it suits them.

(5) The problem of Ukraine dwarfs that of NI, the last six months have dealt a huge blow to any fantastical notion of the EU spending money on NI. In fact, we are likely to be contributing far far more to the EU to help Ukraine than we have a chance of getting under CAP or regional funds for NI, leaving us worse off.

The EU will be doing a lot foe Ukraine, and we will pay our way - we can afford it. The contributions will be pan EU, and are separate from any other EU programmes. Hopefully, the Ukraine war will be over and we can get on with rebuilding the country. Greece went through a turgid time, as we did following the crash. We survived, as did the EU.

Under a UI, the whole issue of funding will be an issue for the Irish Gov and other actors, and any assistance will be in the agreement between the Irish and UK Gov plus any others - which has not even been considered yet. The big issues will be clear, and the small issues will not really matter.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704465#Comment_119704465

Such as?

Who has claimed partition as a success?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704560#Comment_119704560

It's nothing more than your 'version'?

Except it is minus the blocking negativity.

20 years time you will be wondering what the fuss was about as we all get on with running the whole island as a country.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704601#Comment_119704601

In 20 years I will be more than likely dead, so won’t be doing much wondering.

You have a goal and it must be achieved regardless.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704569#Comment_119704569

Just thinking since, any CAP payments or any regional fund payments would probably be better for Northern Ireland if they joined the EU as a small independent country like Malta, Estonia, Luxembourg, Cyprus and Latvia (who are all smaller) as the net contribution arrangement wouldn't apply.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704925#Comment_119704925

They cannot - because the GFA has the choice limited to the status quo or a UI.

Besides, how would they join the EU while part of the UK? [Hint: NI is a divided community - half want to stay in the UK, and the other half want a UI - none want independence].

How will they cease to be part of the UK? [Hint: look at Scotland]

How will they get ready for EU membership? [Hint: Dysfunctional economy]

How will they survive economically until they reach the sunny uplands of EU largesse? [Hint: They will not]

How will they run a divided country without a generous sponsor? [Quite]

I think you need to rub out that thought and think it out again.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704981#Comment_119704981

Bizarre really. It's 'think of anything but a UI'. But don't think too long or complexly about it.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119704981#Comment_119704981

The GFA was of its time. That time has moved on. The emergence of the third minority in the North changes the dynamic, possibly for ever.

A united Ireland is further away than ever because of this changing dynamic.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119705849#Comment_119705849

Well, they need another referendum to change the GFA.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119705066#Comment_119705066

I am not sure of the point you are trying to make. Is it aimed at me?

I am fully in favour of a UI, and see little reason for it not to happen in the mid term, and perhaps sooner.

Look how long it took for attitudes to change here in Ireland wrt to divorce, abortion, gay marriage, etc. But when it began to change, it did it all very quickly.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119705899#Comment_119705899

No Sam. Aimed at the 'anything' but a UI campaign.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119705886#Comment_119705886

Of course they do, but to create a united Ireland they need another referendum to change the GFA. I fully support the GFA as it is.

However, the successor to the GFA may well be an idea that isn't on the table yet.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119706814#Comment_119706814

A border poll is not and will not 'change' the GFA, it is an entirely integral part of the GFA.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699674#Comment_119699674

9 of 10 poorest regions in Northern Europe are in the UK so this seems much more like a London problem than a divided culture problem.

Honestly I don't see the divided culture having as much of an issue. It was driven heavily by segregation and discrimination directed by the government. Certainly old wounds remain but has improved massively since the GFA.

Add to this that socially speaking the DUP are dinosaurs that only remain relevant by representing the current status quo. As soon as they represent change they will die off, especially as there is little love from younger people for their hateful and bigoted views of the lgbt community and women.