Reflection on the pandemic: questions about the authorities' response.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797498#Comment_119797498

We got a second surge in March, which also came down of it's own volition, your data is not proving what you think it's proving....funny enough, that rise and fall was over a 6 week period too....all your data is showing is that we got a second surge during our flu season, so what?

We can see surges of different strains of flu from the start of flu season to the end of flu season all the time, we often get two strains as far as I am aware, My argument is that restrictions do not have any impact on a viral surge....you are proving my point....I am willing to suggest that the flu virus travels through us in a similar fashion.

You can try and convince us that we didn't see that in 2021 because of restrictions but then you'd also have to accept that restrictions don't impact the event in any way shape or form. The virus was never going to surge for 6 months straight.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797602#Comment_119797602

It’s really quite ludicrous at this stage.

Why do viral surges pass? Because they run of hosts

Why do the run out of hosts? Because the number of people infected has reduced the reproduction rate as there not enough susceptible people left

How else can you reduce the reproduction rate? By reducing the number of people that individuals have contact with

In what alternative universe does reducing the number of contacts not reduce or delay a surge? Beats me

There some starter reading you can do to help develop some knowledge on this. Take a look in your own time. Once done we can move you on to some slightly more advanced sources

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797704#Comment_119797704

Again, my argument is that lock downs have no effect on the impact of a viral surge. You have already proved my point thanks.

Did we all reduce the number of people we made contact with in Jan or March 2022, no we didn't, we were fully open, we didn't do it in Dec/Jan 2021 because we were closed...in all three cases the numbers dropped after a 6 week period.

My god man, you need to stop!

Silentcorner

I know you have bought into the R rate, and contact numbers etc etc and all the other data points the bureaucrats threw at us over the two years, but in the end, the meaningful data, the excess death rates, the hospitalizations were all exaggerated.

Again, I know the virus was a nasty infection, I don't doubt that. But the health bureaucrats never had any control over it!!

Please, don't ever play three card monty, no matter how confident you feel!!!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797792#Comment_119797792

Jesus Christ. How many times does it need to be explained that infections did not drop after 6 weeks at the start of this year. Just because you say so doesn’t make it so. They just stopped testing. And since then millions have caught it. Compared to low hundreds of thousands previously,

Whats you mr view, viruses decide to stop infecting people after 6 weeks because that’s the why! Irrespective of the characteristics of the virus and the availability of susceptible hosts?

I think we need to step back the learning to a more basic level

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797508#Comment_119797508

An increase significant enough that resulted in a level 5 lockdown (the highest level) to protect the health service is hardly something you just overlook as nothing.

You've repeatly got basic facts wrong like when lockdowns occurred.

You point out that as lockdown lifted the numbers increased as just seasonal. But this pattern was repeated all over the calendar. It in no way aligns with flu peaks, or viral surges as you call them.

You completely ignore the human behavior and movements associated with the data. Just nothing zilch. Now you've given up and all the data is wrong. Because you can't make sense of it and it's doesn't fit your dogma.

You're back to that old chestnut it's just a flu.

Flinty997

All these threads follow the same circular insular logic.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798097#Comment_119798097

Course they do. You'd think the internet and free instant access to information would make people more rational.

In fact, it does the opposite. Confirmation bias at it's best in this thread. There are none so blind as those who will not see. Or maybe better, there are none so blind as those who see g-men and conspiracies at every turn.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797942#Comment_119797942

I can only imagine how bored posters are listening to both us like this, it's getting very boring.

You just put up data from March showing precisely that. You have proved my point, my own ignorance was knowledge of that surge(I was distracted for a few months in that period and was paying no attention to news at the time)...that surge in March followed the same path as the one in Jan 2022 and Jan 2021.

They stopped testing all and sundry at the beginning of the surge because they got over whelmed...they only tested people with symptoms.

I don't think even experts know what triggers a viral surge, let alone why they end so suddenly so I am not going to be able to explain it, and it varies from country to country, I've been though all this before I'm sure with you...you were in denial of the seasonal factor if I recall.

"Millions caught it"...will you come out of the clouds!!!

Stop putting up your book collection, it's pathetic!

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119797563#Comment_119797563

Certainly be interesting to find out.

That's said it's not unusual for top civil servants to end up on multiple boards.

The optics of it are abysmal regardless.

It's a shame we didn't have restrictions throughout Christmas for alpha. I'm pretty sure we still would have had a big spike regardless. The spikes followed the major variants, not the severity of restrictions. Makes sense - a new variant has lots of new hosts to infect. We were pretty much fully open in the summer of 2020 with very low case rates.

Fact is those countries that best protected their elderly in nursing homes or who had relatively younger populations did best.

Full lockdowns do slow the spread but at enormous cost, both financial and in mental and physical health terms as China is currently demonstrating and we never had them anyway.

Whatever happened those ISAG nutters that were never off the air at one point?

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798068#Comment_119798068

I'm not sure you are even reading my posts to be honest, I have just said it was a nasty infection. We don't know how it aligns with flu peaks because we don't test for flu infections. Feel free to completely dismiss the existence of the viral surge all you want, I won't lose any sleep if you do!

The reason I don't trust the data is precisely because there is no accurate way to measure the contacts or movements of 5 million people...therefore any data related to the movement or contacts of 5 million people is rubbish!!!! Do you understand, it's rubbish!!!! It's inaccurate, pointless...they might as well pull figures out of their asses!! Either data is clean and accurate or it's rubbish!!! Too many fell into that trap, you could understand it given how our media thrust the data in front of us every day....but any reasonable person can now see how misleading the data actually was!

We have a hospital bed stock of 11,000 - the overall occupancy rate of those beds over the pandemic/versus the previous number of years would be a very pertinent data point, but I don't recall ever coming across that...we were told how many were in hospital with covid all the time, do we know how many of those actually caught it in hospital?

Why did they build extra bed capacity in April/May 2020 to dismantle it in Sept 2020...no one knows!! But you guys know all about R rates and incidental infections or whatever garbage ye mentioned previously!

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798109#Comment_119798109

But on here, people challenge the data...even if I am wrong or others are wrong, the data is being challenged.

How can you accuse people who are challenging the data as suffering from confirmation bias....the people collecting the data are the ones who suffer from confirmation bias normally. Unless you think no one should challenge the data of course...there are none so blind they cannot see indeed, you probably still believe that covid took 8,000 lives here!

kyote00

I think it’s easy to forget the early few weeks when we looked on at the situation in Italy and then New York

italy in particular scared a lot of people into accepting the first lockdown and in truth it was the right decision IMHO based on what we knew at that time …..

Things worth investigation imho:

• -the public sector procurement process is unfit for purpose both in normal times and during the pandemic
• - nursing homes death rate (early on)
• 
  

Flinty997

...

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798221#Comment_119798221

Even at early on it was known that it was quite specific about who was at risk. The danger was if it changed at any point before they got vaccines into play. There a lot of hindsight is 20:20 vision in these threads. Very suspect memories too.

Nursing homes are a no brainer. Understaffed, under resourced, they don't have the facilities or resources to deal with anything infectious. Any sort of bug in normal times sweeps through them, and they locked down often enough before COVID. People only go into nursing homes when they are very vulnerable and often as a last resort.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798154#Comment_119798154

Summer 2020 close contact was limited as lots of places were still shut. Also its not transmitted in low density out door activity. Crammed elbow to elbow in high density though entirely different.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798194#Comment_119798194

You don't need every bit of possible data to analyse it and establish patterns and trends. Bit nuts to think you do.

If you know the data in the media is not reliable, then you just ignore it. Not be triggered by it as you seem to be. Its how they sell papers. Water off a ducks back.

Also you shouldn't obsessively watching the news (doom scrolling) which seems to have been your habit. I don't feel the media put anything in front of me. I simply don't watch it. Check it occasionally, doesn't effect me in the slightest.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798115#Comment_119798115

You are repeating the same errors. This year they did not just stop testing people with symptoms. They stopped testing people with symptoms and with positive antigen tests under the age of 40. The majority of the population. Over 40’s generally stopped bothering going for tests unless they needed it for a specific reason. And that was just January. They further restricted testing as the year progress. Tell me can see how looking just at cases that would appear like cases “fell off a cliff” when in fact nothing of the sort happened? So, Yes, millions. Finding someone who hasn’t had it is becoming increasingly rare. Officially there have been 800,000 recorded cases in 2022. Given the vast majority were never even tested, of course it’s millions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798319#Comment_119798319

Yeah it's comments like this that are really bad for my mental health - while technically true it's highly misleading.

Restaurants for indoor dining were fully open in summer 2020 with no masking. In fact it was only pubs for drinking and nightclubs that were closed. There should have been an explosion of infections. There wasn't. Restrictions got progressively stricter after the summer of 2020 yet cases and deaths were much higher.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798301#Comment_119798301

It was known but not presented that way by NPHET and the media. The emphasis was on anecdotes of fit 20 year olds in ICU.

This kind of stuff - from a NPHET member https://www.fm104.ie/news/fm104-news/dublin-doctor-warns-of-increasing-number-of-young-covid-patients/

Again ruinous to people's mental health. When you see a fit young person wearing an N95 outside that person's mental health is in bits.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798566#Comment_119798566

This is where when looking at media stories you have to look at the story in context. The risk to young for people was low. But not zero.

Also that fit looking person might have an underlying condition, or be carer for someone who is vulnerable.

If someone mental health is unable to deal with such things they should stop looking at the media. I'm not being flippant either. It's been researched.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798563#Comment_119798563

Well they opened end of June. I was away on holidays in June and everywhere was closed. It's was all self catering or takeaways. Some fairly decent restaurants offered takeaways. I thought that was quite smart.

How is misleading. Having food is generally lower density with people you know, than standing in packed bar or night club elbow to elbow with strangers. We noticed the same effect in schools. It would go through classes, but not kids out playing football.

Also there was surge in August in 3 countries and then again in October.

I would disagree with how it was enforced and some of the rules. But all the parks were full and the weather was good.

I can't speak for your mental health. But I did see the effect on older people. But then even pre COVID older people would watch the news excessively watch crime programs back to back and be overly negatively. Covid only compounded that.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798327#Comment_119798327

What a joke...

The data the health bureaucrats published every day was used to determine what civil liberties we were allowed to have from one week to the next...that's the kind of data you want to be accurate, did you ever once even ask yourself how their modelling was so off given the amount of data they had?

I didn't sit in front of the telly gobbling up this garbage like some on here did, that is why they can no longer think straight...you can tell the posters who spent the most time pouring over useless data!!

Thinking that our Health Bureaucrats (who are, the most incompetent in Europe) controlled the spread of the virus for two years is this generations moving statues phenomenon!!!

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798516#Comment_119798516

Because you don't need tests and antigen tests to know what a viral surge is and when you are in one...the health service has been dealing with them for as long as there's been a health service.

I am repeating the same error????? Would you listen to yourself, you are arguing against the existence of a viral surge despite what your own data (which was hospitilasitions by the way) demonstrated!!!

Flinty997

People on this thread seem to be oblivious that different strains are quite different in how infectious they were and how severe the symptoms. You're talking about different risks in 2022 as 2020 and with unvaccinated population vs vaccinated.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798700#Comment_119798700

No never needed to ask because I'm used to working with data in my work. It's always imperfect.

If you look at housing stats or cycling stats lots of problems with that data. But you can still work with it. If the media post stats on those you can go to the source and see where the media is being selective for click bait titles. It's still useful though as you can read between the lines.

It's ironic that people will praise Timbuktu stats but criticize Ireland when our stats are better.

looksee

For clarity, I am fully vaccinated, I am 'vulnerable' from both an age and health point of view.

I have not had covid despite being exposed. No-one in my immediate (blood relatives) family has had covid, sister is an anti-vaxxer and didn't get it despite her husband (who was vaccinated) having contracted covid - not a serious problem despite him being very vulnerable. It is now becoming evident apparently that there is significant protection genetically in a large proportion of the population. This fact alone has created scepticism in some people, the natural immunity was not known about at the start of the epidemic, and the information would not have helped even if it had been known.

Yes, elderly people with covid should not have been put in nursing homes, this was a serious error that needs investigation.

Otherwise, the government did what they could in the face of a situation that they had no experience of. Previous experience (Spanish flu) indicated that isolation was a very significant help, in anticipation of vaccination. Yes, the close down had some very bad effects on some people but the government had to do something and in the immediate absence of vaccination and testing it was all they could do. We can argue endlessly about whether there should have been closedown or whether the infection should have been allowed to run through the population, a decision had to be made and there will always be some - especially those with 20/20 hindsight - who will complain any decision was wrong.

Flinty997

At the risk of invoking Godwin's law.

When they cracked the German engima codes they had imperfect radio signals to work with. So they built multiple radio recievers which all recieved imperfect data but different imperfect data. When combined it filled in much (but not all of the gaps).

People are predicable. A high % of German radio signals would start with asking about the weather. They used that predicability to help break the codes.

Same thing with COVID. When you get clusters it's often common human activity (habits) that has caused it. Can't really complain when such habits and flouting rules get targeted by more rules and lockdowns.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798715#Comment_119798715

There's an irony in complaining about incomplete data then arguing you don't need it. Same with complaining hospital stats are misleading then saying you only need hospital stats.

The % of hospitalisations and deaths is different with different strains and how vaccinated the population is. So at different times the stats are interpreted differently. Context is everything.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798804#Comment_119798804

I think it's fair to say you've lost all credibility at this point....cracking a code and trying to control an airbourne virus are not in the same ball park, neither is buying a house or looking up cycling stats, our civil liberties were yanked from us at the behest of the CMO on the basis of what we can all see was unclean data. That did untold damage to the population that we will be dealing with for years!!

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798839#Comment_119798839

You are just howling at the moon at this stage.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798851#Comment_119798851

You're just barking....

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798846#Comment_119798846

Data is data.

It's all analysed the same.

Ironically, the most accurate data sets come from the analysis of COVID virus from the sewerage outflows which in most places 100% of the local population are connected, even in areas where the use of septic tanks is high, the ratio can be calculated.

These datasets showed quite clearly the percentage of the population that was infected at any one time, regardless of testing regimes.

So you could say that the shít data was the best data!

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798870#Comment_119798870

You say you work with data, and you are right, data is often unclean, but if it's unclean then that needs to made clear to anyone using that data to make a decision.

Using unclean data (like positive tests) to then extrapolate r numbers, or anything else related to that data isn't just incompetent, it is useless.

So tell us, when you look at data provided by the health authorities, what questions did you ask? Or did you just accept it blindly? You said you have experience with data...

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799024#Comment_119799024

Bad data is worse than having no data because it leads to all sorts of speculation and correlation v causation etc. Which in turn leads to bad decision making.

When you boil it down our government choose to except the data being presented to them without a thought given to the long term effects of their decisions. This is one of the major drawbacks we have in this country where short term planning trump's everything else because politicians are worried about their seat or the party at the next election.

If you then add in the process they were using which implemented lockdowns on extremely short notice but it took an eternity for them to be lifted it led to a lot of frustration.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798804#Comment_119798804

So what caused it in the maximum PPE / precaution nursing homes? None of us or people we knew got it at that time (2020 waves), many of whom were essential workers yet the nursing homes were riddled? Which nurse or elderly person was the guilty one who spread it?

And don't say "community transmission". The nursing homes were ideally situated to prevent infection getting in, but they were hamstrung by policy at the time.

And if I needed to visit my elderly mother I had no way to test myself beforehand because antigen tests were "snake oil".

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799195#Comment_119799195

It's mad that people cant accept it tho, given the evidence we have.

We know the official death total is exaggerated.

We know the hospitisation figures are misleading.

They are the headline numbers, the only really important ones.

We also know the modelling, that was used to frighten the population and dictate public policy, were also wildly inaccurate.

We are home to some of the most incompetent health bureaucrats in Europe and yet people still don't want to question them.

WE know that they operate in a system that is devoid of accountability.

And people still think these bureaucrats were controlling the spread of an airbourne virus!!! Like I said, it's like believing the statues were moving!!

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799196#Comment_119799196

None were locked down 100% and none could say for certain they didn't have it without a battery of tests. Similarly not everything has to perfect or 100% to have an effect or useful. So it's a fallacy to say they were ideally placed to prevent infection getting. They certainly have advantages. But perfect no.

As for policy. Hospitals need people to leave so there space for new people to come in. No one leaving, no one's coming in. Bed blocking (horrible term I acknowledge) was a thing long before Covid. There only route for hospitals once someone no longer needs hospital facilities, is to transfer them elsewhere. That is the problem. If you've alternatives please suggest some.

PommieBast

@JRant

If you then add in the process they were using which implemented lockdowns on extremely short notice but it took an eternity for them to be lifted it led to a lot of frustration.

The ultimate was how Dublin pubs specifically were told they had to stay closed during Level 3, and this was just after spending a packet putting up partitions, getting in stock, and taking on staff. Problem here was more the dishonest politics-as-usual rather than how long the lockdown lasted.

But for me personally the most disgraceful thing was how INIS shut down completely, refusing even to return people's identity documents for months. People lost jobs and study places as a result. This was back-office stuff that could have been kept ticking over at a reduced capacity but instead the government decided to piss over people's need to get on with their lives. In contrast I got my overseas passport renewed within a week right in the middle of the Alpha wave. Issuing of vaccine passports was also a complete fiasco.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799195#Comment_119799195

Most data isn't perfect or complete. Often it's just a sample and you extrapolate from that.

Don't disagree with most of the rest of that, but kinda judging with the benefit of hindsight.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799024#Comment_119799024

For the nth time your default should always be not to accept the media or data from ANY source at face value. For example almost all the incorrect facts in this thread are easily checked against the official timeline of the lockdowns. It's the problem with disinformation. Most of it is easily cross checked with other sources. For example media cycling road injuries stats are often quoted from the hospital stats. But hospital stats include accidents not on the road. You get this inconsistency all the time.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799447#Comment_119799447

So again, as someone who works with data, what questions did you ask when you looked at the data health bureaucrats provided? You do realise you are the one on here defending the data the government provided us right? The rest of us are the one's not taking it at face value!!!!

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799349#Comment_119799349

Oh that wasn't by accident either. They were very clear that they didn't want anyone travelling so closing that office down severely hampered those people even thinking about it. Another blot on their record alright.

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799371#Comment_119799371

You are absolutely correct, no data set is perfect. You can only really extrapolate if you have a good cross sectional representation sample of the overall set you are trying to work from. We never got close to having that kind of sample or even a consistent sample for that matter. The testing regimes changed all the time, the variants changed, the level of movement within the country changed, people's behavior changed as fatigue set in. I could go on and on but I think you get my point.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799349#Comment_119799349

Says here is they reopened

https://www.thejournal.ie/immigration-ireland-dublin-5143456-Jul2020/

The whole immigration thing is a mess anyway. Covid only compounded it.

Lot of services were paper based. Also crazy long winded manual processes. I had to get a new licence in person in the middle of it, eventually after I got an appointment and all the documents checked and submitted. They manage to lose or transcribe some of it wrong requiring a second appointment. Had a similar problem with passports. The system were no fit for purpose. Have the same issue with NCT at the moment. Its barely functioning.

Most of these had problems before Covid. NCT has been a disaster from the start.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799495#Comment_119799495

Certainly was a constantly shifting target and environment. So all this hindsight stuff makes little sense to me.

I don't think what they had was completely useless though. I think thats the sky is falling kind of mindset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUHunfH0XbI&ab_channel=desm71

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799478#Comment_119799478

I suspected that, but holding onto people's GNIB cards as well? Did anyone actually stop and think about what people use these things for? Nope.

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799520#Comment_119799520

Yes but if you are dictating extreme restrictions on civil liberties based on them it's an extremely worrying aspect of the whole pandemic.