Reflection on the pandemic: questions about the authorities' response.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798804#Comment_119798804

I think it's fair to say you've lost all credibility at this point....cracking a code and trying to control an airbourne virus are not in the same ball park, neither is buying a house or looking up cycling stats, our civil liberties were yanked from us at the behest of the CMO on the basis of what we can all see was unclean data. That did untold damage to the population that we will be dealing with for years!!

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798839#Comment_119798839

You are just howling at the moon at this stage.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798851#Comment_119798851

You're just barking....

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798846#Comment_119798846

Data is data.

It's all analysed the same.

Ironically, the most accurate data sets come from the analysis of COVID virus from the sewerage outflows which in most places 100% of the local population are connected, even in areas where the use of septic tanks is high, the ratio can be calculated.

These datasets showed quite clearly the percentage of the population that was infected at any one time, regardless of testing regimes.

So you could say that the shít data was the best data!

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798870#Comment_119798870

You say you work with data, and you are right, data is often unclean, but if it's unclean then that needs to made clear to anyone using that data to make a decision.

Using unclean data (like positive tests) to then extrapolate r numbers, or anything else related to that data isn't just incompetent, it is useless.

So tell us, when you look at data provided by the health authorities, what questions did you ask? Or did you just accept it blindly? You said you have experience with data...

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799024#Comment_119799024

Bad data is worse than having no data because it leads to all sorts of speculation and correlation v causation etc. Which in turn leads to bad decision making.

When you boil it down our government choose to except the data being presented to them without a thought given to the long term effects of their decisions. This is one of the major drawbacks we have in this country where short term planning trump's everything else because politicians are worried about their seat or the party at the next election.

If you then add in the process they were using which implemented lockdowns on extremely short notice but it took an eternity for them to be lifted it led to a lot of frustration.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798804#Comment_119798804

So what caused it in the maximum PPE / precaution nursing homes? None of us or people we knew got it at that time (2020 waves), many of whom were essential workers yet the nursing homes were riddled? Which nurse or elderly person was the guilty one who spread it?

And don't say "community transmission". The nursing homes were ideally situated to prevent infection getting in, but they were hamstrung by policy at the time.

And if I needed to visit my elderly mother I had no way to test myself beforehand because antigen tests were "snake oil".

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799195#Comment_119799195

It's mad that people cant accept it tho, given the evidence we have.

We know the official death total is exaggerated.

We know the hospitisation figures are misleading.

They are the headline numbers, the only really important ones.

We also know the modelling, that was used to frighten the population and dictate public policy, were also wildly inaccurate.

We are home to some of the most incompetent health bureaucrats in Europe and yet people still don't want to question them.

WE know that they operate in a system that is devoid of accountability.

And people still think these bureaucrats were controlling the spread of an airbourne virus!!! Like I said, it's like believing the statues were moving!!

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799196#Comment_119799196

None were locked down 100% and none could say for certain they didn't have it without a battery of tests. Similarly not everything has to perfect or 100% to have an effect or useful. So it's a fallacy to say they were ideally placed to prevent infection getting. They certainly have advantages. But perfect no.

As for policy. Hospitals need people to leave so there space for new people to come in. No one leaving, no one's coming in. Bed blocking (horrible term I acknowledge) was a thing long before Covid. There only route for hospitals once someone no longer needs hospital facilities, is to transfer them elsewhere. That is the problem. If you've alternatives please suggest some.

PommieBast

@JRant

If you then add in the process they were using which implemented lockdowns on extremely short notice but it took an eternity for them to be lifted it led to a lot of frustration.

The ultimate was how Dublin pubs specifically were told they had to stay closed during Level 3, and this was just after spending a packet putting up partitions, getting in stock, and taking on staff. Problem here was more the dishonest politics-as-usual rather than how long the lockdown lasted.

But for me personally the most disgraceful thing was how INIS shut down completely, refusing even to return people's identity documents for months. People lost jobs and study places as a result. This was back-office stuff that could have been kept ticking over at a reduced capacity but instead the government decided to piss over people's need to get on with their lives. In contrast I got my overseas passport renewed within a week right in the middle of the Alpha wave. Issuing of vaccine passports was also a complete fiasco.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799195#Comment_119799195

Most data isn't perfect or complete. Often it's just a sample and you extrapolate from that.

Don't disagree with most of the rest of that, but kinda judging with the benefit of hindsight.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799024#Comment_119799024

For the nth time your default should always be not to accept the media or data from ANY source at face value. For example almost all the incorrect facts in this thread are easily checked against the official timeline of the lockdowns. It's the problem with disinformation. Most of it is easily cross checked with other sources. For example media cycling road injuries stats are often quoted from the hospital stats. But hospital stats include accidents not on the road. You get this inconsistency all the time.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799447#Comment_119799447

So again, as someone who works with data, what questions did you ask when you looked at the data health bureaucrats provided? You do realise you are the one on here defending the data the government provided us right? The rest of us are the one's not taking it at face value!!!!

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799349#Comment_119799349

Oh that wasn't by accident either. They were very clear that they didn't want anyone travelling so closing that office down severely hampered those people even thinking about it. Another blot on their record alright.

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799371#Comment_119799371

You are absolutely correct, no data set is perfect. You can only really extrapolate if you have a good cross sectional representation sample of the overall set you are trying to work from. We never got close to having that kind of sample or even a consistent sample for that matter. The testing regimes changed all the time, the variants changed, the level of movement within the country changed, people's behavior changed as fatigue set in. I could go on and on but I think you get my point.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799349#Comment_119799349

Says here is they reopened

https://www.thejournal.ie/immigration-ireland-dublin-5143456-Jul2020/

The whole immigration thing is a mess anyway. Covid only compounded it.

Lot of services were paper based. Also crazy long winded manual processes. I had to get a new licence in person in the middle of it, eventually after I got an appointment and all the documents checked and submitted. They manage to lose or transcribe some of it wrong requiring a second appointment. Had a similar problem with passports. The system were no fit for purpose. Have the same issue with NCT at the moment. Its barely functioning.

Most of these had problems before Covid. NCT has been a disaster from the start.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799495#Comment_119799495

Certainly was a constantly shifting target and environment. So all this hindsight stuff makes little sense to me.

I don't think what they had was completely useless though. I think thats the sky is falling kind of mindset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUHunfH0XbI&ab_channel=desm71

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799478#Comment_119799478

I suspected that, but holding onto people's GNIB cards as well? Did anyone actually stop and think about what people use these things for? Nope.

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799520#Comment_119799520

Yes but if you are dictating extreme restrictions on civil liberties based on them it's an extremely worrying aspect of the whole pandemic.

JRant

The thought process never looked past the daily numbers and to hell with any longer term consequences.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799556#Comment_119799556

Pandemics tend to be extreme.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799561#Comment_119799561

I am willing to bet that our bed occupancy rate for the first 6 to 9 months of the pandemic was lower than normal....our hospitals were quieter than they have ever been despite the hysterical media and politicians telling us to stay home...remember we saw our nurses doing tik tok dance videos from April on which was a bit odd, behaviour consistent with a hospital system that was under no real pressure.

The converted a local sports arena into a extra bed space, spent €5 million in May of 2020, it was disbanded by Oct.

I suspect that because for the last year at least our hospital has been rammed all year round, including during summer months which we don't often see.

I think the singular focus on one virus will go down as the most damaging health policy ever imposed on a population.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799471#Comment_119799471

There is not taking something at face value and questioning validity of data and interpreting based on what we do know using related sources - eg hospital rates as a proxy for the general rate of infection - even if they are not in hospital for covid they are representative of the broader population. And then there is the data isn't completely perfect therefore dismissing all of it, and not accepting any use of the data, unless we think if might support an argument. Eg calling it a six week surge becasue the raw data might suggest so, but then dismissing the data when its pointed out the reason it looks like a 6 week surge is after 6 weeks hundred of thousand of tests were no longer being completed.

March April - 6 week surge. Lockdown. Ended

Dec 20 / Jan 2021 - 6 week surge, semi-lockdown. Ended.

Dec / Jan 2022 - 6 week surge, no lockdown, stop testing. High hospital rates continued for months

It can be clearly and unambiguously shown in the data the the numbers of people testing positive for covid on admission to hospital fell massively after lockdowns. This did not happen after the surge with no lockdown. Whether those were in hospital with covid or other reasons does not matter. They had covid at the time and therefore are representative of covid in the community. Now add the fact that vaccinated people (or those previously infected) are less likely to end up hospital for covid in the first place, the falloff is even more stark.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799678#Comment_119799678

Before I take a look, can you confirm that those admissions do not include people who test positive in hospital?

You have a habit of posting flawed data is all!

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799608#Comment_119799608

From 2016

https://iaem.ie/ed-crowding-crisis-hits-new-summer-high/

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799706#Comment_119799706

It says "hospitalizations and intensive care (ICU) admissions due to COVID-19". I would suggest someone who gets it while in the hospital isn't admissions.

If you follow it back you see the source of that information. I suppose you'd have to check how each country defines "admissions" and "due to COVID-19"

If course if you start with the baseline the data should be flawless then no data will meet that criteria.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799822#Comment_119799822

But suggesting isn't good enough really.

Because we know that hospitals had outbreaks, which to be fair you'd expect, but those figures were never separated from admissions, and we get a more virulent variant then the amount of hospital outbreaks would increase it is fair to say...at this point, that data is no good really.

This is why you need to vigorously drill through the data and definitions and why it is imperative not to take any data at face value!! You being a person who works with data should understand that.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799850#Comment_119799850

Do tell why it makes a difference?

If you take the proposition that they are not admissions and actually people who tested positive in hospital, why did these stop after lockdowns but not when there were no lockdowns?

Now as pointed out it was recorded as hospital admissions, but you can decide not to accept that, its your choice.

There is a separate measure of Hospital patients with Covid however. Follows the same pattern mind

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799903#Comment_119799903

What exactly are you trying to prove here, that we have had 3 spikes over the two years which your data demonstrates, because I've said repeatedly that is what I believed happened. I'm sorry, with a forth one in March which I missed.