which portfolio

iebamm2580

just looking at my pension portfolio with mercer, my dc pension. Im on Growth portfolio. The passive global equity unhedged fund seems to be performing much better. Im 35 so can have risky fund for a while. Just wondering what peoples opinions are. Thinking of switching to the unhedged global equity which is performing over 20% better. Would i be mad to switch with impending stock market decline of up to 20% as Jamie dimon reckons.

Henry Ford III

Mercer are paid to advise you, so why not ask them?

SwimClub

You need to be careful over what period and scenario you are measuring that 20% better, 20% better can become 20% worse if the fund is leveraging up on risk.

Higher interest rates will tend to depress the stock market and they are set to continue rising some time with inflation, a lot of people are factoring in a recession. Market timing is generally acknowledged to be impossible. Just my own personal view and not investment advice but I'd be reluctant to go even higher risk right now than a growth fund, the time I'd do that is after a crash when prices are low (assuming you don't miss out on a big upside while waiting for the crash to leverage up, that big upside seems unlikely at the moment but again that's market timing which is practically impossible). The growth fund is probably already quite high risk in the current environment.

iebamm2580

Even during covid the irish life fund whish is the same as mercers global equity unhedged seemed to go down less then my current growth fund. Both have a risk of 5. Ill think about it. Thanks for info.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058267088/which-portfolio

You need to stop listening to the talking heads, Jamie Dimon has skin in the game and he knows no more about what will happen than anyone. It does not matter to him if the market goes up or down, what is important is that people keep trading and the AMU of his firm grows, because that is how he makes money.

Another thing is that you can't time the market, it's a fools game, there is plenty of research out there on this, but time in the market does count. If you were intend on buying a house would you want the price to go down or up? So as a buyer of equities, why would you want the price to go up? You have a thirty year horizon, so you want prices to come down so you can hover up as much as you can. The only time you want prices going up is when you need to sell and you are a long way from that right now. You should buy equities like you buy groceries not perfume.

Over the long haul a well balanced portfolio is likely to yield the best results. For you that means a high percentage of equites, but also some bonds, property and alternative investments.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119736500#Comment_119736500

Bear in mind you can probably allocate across a mix of funds and that's probably a good idea. Fund managers leave, so past performance may not indicate future returns for more reasons than just market risk. Fund performance tends to mean revert so chasing last years stars isn't the best strategy either.

iebamm2580

changed to the riskier option, will leaver that way for 10years then mercer go to less risky strategy for me i think. 13% avs going in now so risky option now better then in 10-15 years. Thanks for info.