2022 US Mid-Term Elections Thread (election date: Tuesday, 8th November)

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853405#Comment_119853405

Both can be true.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853405#Comment_119853405

Well surely that means they did actually run "excellent local races"

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853447#Comment_119853447

They can, but other commentators disagreed that it was.

Its quite widely acknowledged that the Dem base was pretty deflated and rudderless of late. Of course thats not universal, but I do think many of these results are in spite of Democratic national leadership, not because of it.

If the Dems have any sense now, they will use this time to bring in new congressional leadership and put faces out front that reflect young America and will lead a massive effort for the next two years.

If these younger people have been politicised by Roe and the MAGA agenda, holding on to their engagement is the most important job in American politics this decade.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853805#Comment_119853805

The Dem base was energised and voted. It’s not a bad result for a mid term incumbent. The swing vote went GOP.

Larbre34

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1590341634709131265?s=19

Never a bad day to hear that Trump is stressing himself into an early grave.

One suspects that McConnell/DeSantis will move to bring in all the senior Republicans with them and rule Trump's return out early. Who knows how Trump's legal problems will go, but if they throw him under the bus today, they can focus on the work at hand and it won't matter what happens to Trump between now and November 2024.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853608#Comment_119853608

The point being, younger and women voters self-directed on the issues, rather than being necessarily wooed by Democrat candidates.

I'd go as far as to say, that if Roe V Wade had had no action by the US Supreme Court in this cycle, that the GOP would be celebrating a much bigger night of results right now.

In other words, the Dems need to not let any of this go to their head, especially with the economic challenges ahead.

Brussels Sprout

One thing that has been made abundantly clear is most voters do not want strict pro-life legislation. I wonder will the GOP have a rethink about how fully throated they wanted to be seen on this issue in the future.

Brian?

Have CNN on, John King is in front of the screen. He’s refusing to call the House for the GOP.

I wasn’t even planning to watch until a few hours ago. Races are close across the country. A 51-49 senate for the Dems looks possible. But so does a 51-49 for the GOP. The House looks like it’ll be less that 10 seats in it. This absolutely beats the historical averages for Midterm incumbents

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853871#Comment_119853871

Neither of us can do anything other than speculate on that first point. You have no idea who mobilized this vote.

I think you are reading way too much into this. Its pretty normal for someone to throw a quick word of praise at the local campaigners who have had a good night.

Larbre34

Nevada will go Red, Arizona Blue and the final result will need to wait for the Georgia runoff next month (senate)

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854197#Comment_119854197

Odd.

Looked at Nevada betting odds and Dems still favs?

Some small bit of good news for Trump is Lake might fall over the line in Arizona, she was blessed that her opponent Hobbs wasn't the most inspiring and dodged a debate with her. Mark Kelly will win also although against a lad who looks like a serial killer aka Blake Masters.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854197#Comment_119854197

I wouldn’t be so sure about Nevada. A lot of votes to be counted around Vegas

Brian?

Herschel Walker got the “family values” vote in Georgia- are they well in the head?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854342#Comment_119854342

They don’t care about the “vessel”. They only care about the judges. They’re disciplined.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854342#Comment_119854342

Clearly he values families - after all he has a bunch of them with different women.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854335#Comment_119854335

Looks like the senate is going to the Dems. About to pull ahead in Nevada

Brussels Sprout

The ballot initiative in Nevada to move to open primaries and ranked choice voting is currently winning by 3.6% with 84% counted. Both state parties opposed the measure so that's impressive. I only learned yesterday though that if it wins it won't be enacted. Instead it will be voted on again in 2024. Only if it passes a second time will it become law. Apparently that's how ballot initiatives work in that state. Very unusual way of doing things.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858324#Comment_119858324

What's open primaries ?

As in the whole state can vote what candidate a party runs ?

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858370#Comment_119858370

Yes; currently closed primaries where you need to be a registered party member to vote. The actual on the ballot is "Provide for open top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections" which means you could, gasp, choose someone who's not a democrat or republican which is why I can see both parties opposing the idea. This is as well why it has to be voted on twice as it's a citizens ballot proposal because if the legislative don't like it (and they don't as noted earlier) it has to be voted in twice in a row to be turned into law.

The above taken mainly from here.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858941#Comment_119858941

Sounds stupid to be honest. How can you have parties if they can't pick their candidates.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859452#Comment_119859452

Well the other way of looking at it is who will they caucus with if they are elected? Who is going to fund and their campaign? In both cases it'll be the party that they are affiliated with. The supporters of that party can still vote in the primary...just like everyone else. With 5 people going forward they'll certainly be able to get one of their candidates into the general election (if not even 2 or 3 of them).

Alaska has already introduced this and this is the very first general election (although in their course it is 4 that go forward for the general election). In the big statewide races the breakdown by Party of the 4 contestants is:

Governor: 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat, 1 Independent (he's a former Republican)

Senate: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat

House: 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat, 1 Libertarian

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859767#Comment_119859767

Right I get you now. So it does away with party primaries and sets up a French President style 2 step voting system.

I thought it just meant everyone could pick the republican candidate. Explains my confusion as to why there were 2 Republicans in Alaska. I just thought Palin was up to shenanigans.

Nody

CNN predicts Democrats wins for the Senate, the house seat and the gubernatorial in Arizona based on the latest batches of vote counts that come out.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860435#Comment_119860435

Yup open primary - open to all candidates from any parties (or none) and all voters.

The most extreme example was the very first one: They had a special election for the single Alaska house seat (because the previous guy died). That was in June and it had FORTY-EIGHT candidates in it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election#Results

Most of them were complete no-hopers and ended up only getting a handful of votes. By the time of the next primary for the General election only 22 people entered the primary:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska#Results

Nody

And Nevada retains it's D senator and the Senate remains Democratic as well; honestly a significant rebuff of Trump and the Republicans that no one was expecting and I'd almost dare to say unprecedented under the circumstances (i.e. sitting party, economy in down turn etc. as I know Bush retained after 9/11 but I'd call those special circumstances) but I don't know the history well enough to confirm that. Of course Trump has already claimed it as stolen as expected since in Trump's world view the two options is his candidate wins or it's stolen as Trump can never lose.

Also worth calling out that @Brussels Sprout called it correctly in their predictions in post number 2 on the senate (yes there's a possibility it goes 51/49 but unlikely).

Sam Russell

Georgia is going for a run off, as they did two years ago.

That time the Democrat won, and might do again. A lot will be spent on both sides to get the vote out. A lot to play for, and a big win on offer for the Democrats - for the Republican - not so much.

marno21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119868252#Comment_119868252

And one of the big tailwinds for the Democrat candidates the last time out was the runoff being held without the draw of Trump on the ballot. This time around Sen. Warnock has the same tailwind, the incumbent Governor Kemp polled 200,000 votes higher than Senate candidate Walker did. It'll be a huge help for Sen. Warnock this time around that Kemp won't be on the ballot.

Walter Sobchak III

My back of an envelope calculation has the final result in the House as Reps 220 & Dems 215.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119869096#Comment_119869096

If there's any truth to that as a final result ... How many Reps might be purple enough to make that majority of 5 irrelevant? I imagine the answer is "none" given how functionally extinct bipartisanship has become - but it'd certainly be an interesting, and further, slight against the GOP.

interlocked

If Warnock wins, then Biden is free from having to indulge that absolute reptile, Joe Manchin.

The Democrats will pour resources into Georgia for that reason alone. Whereas the Republicans have no such incentive.

If Trump announces a run on Tuesday, then I'm buying shares in popcorn companies. It will be an absolute bloodbath within the Republican party.

"whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" Ain't that a fact.