NI Dec 22 Assembly Election

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295248#Comment_120295248

I am moving towards liking it. Some huge developments. If you look back at my early posts in other threads about the problems of the protocol, I am pretty confident they are all gone. Ecj still oversees eu law - but the areas of eu law are now massively reduced. And they can’t really play silly buggers or we can block all new rules through the Belfast brake

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295028#Comment_120295028

I dunno, please explain this Stormont Brake more Francie. From what little I've read, it will allow Stormont to reject any new? EU legislation affecting NI and that it will require cross community support at Stormont.

Does this include existing EU regulations?

And does it imply that the DUP & SF both have to agree on the 'brake'? Or can nationalists/ unionists as defined still have a veto?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295346#Comment_120295346

That's my understanding listening to both the PM and a few others.

The Petition of Concern from the GFA comes into effect.

Also, the 'it can't be trivial' and 'they must 'show lasting effects' are high bars.

Still need the other 'avennues of remediation' explained.

lurleen lumpkin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295346#Comment_120295346

Looks like it needs 30 MLA's from at least 2 parties to be considered so should be safe enough?

Furze99

Is this Stormont Brake effectively meaningless then from the DUP point of view?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295373#Comment_120295373

That's more or less what Paisley said.

'It's too hard to get to it' , is what I think he said.

Finty Lemon

This is victory for the DUP if they would only play it as such.

They can claim to have held out against Brussels, Dublin and Westminster to secure a better deal for The Union.

A bigger prize however, is having Sinn Fein chomping at the bit to assume the role of First Minister in Stormont. The novelty of that position will soon wear off, and the next election would surely see a return to DUP as the largest party.

SF would then have to invent new crises to bring the institutions down, their true intention all along. However the long standing claim of exclusion would have been proved false, and it would be their turn to face the wrath of public opinion. A functioning Executive is the greatest threat to SF of all and the DUP are their greatest asset in keeping it dysfunctional!

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295361#Comment_120295361

It was explained on ni news as the same as the petition of concern ie requires 30 signatures, and then of course it couldn’t survive a cross community vote. So seems very easy to call it (although it won’t be needed as the fact it exists will keep manners on the eu).

as for two parties, I didn’t realise that, but it’s irrelevant as there are 3 unionist parties in stormont.

moon2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295527#Comment_120295527

Indeed, the fact that this exists will ensure everyone is well behaved:

66.It is important to note that the permanent disapplication of the rules would mean divergence between Northern Ireland and Ireland (and the broader EU), and thus it would be a matter for the EU how to deal with the consequent impact on their market. Recognising this, the EU will have the ability to take 'appropriate remedial

measures'.

Just like the UK continues to be perfectly entitled to disapply any provision in any international, or national, treaty or law - there are consequences when it occurs.

However, if it's considered a unionist win to have it written down in this form, then great! I'm as excited as the next person to see things move on from pretending this wasn't true :)

FrancieBrady

EU and Dublin are briefing that the Stormont Brake requires cross community support. Sunak has been vague, saying, 'the people of Northern Ireland'.

We'll just have to wait for clarification but either way the bar is very high to render it unlikely to be used.

downcow

I know many on here will deny this, even when it is written in black and white.

how many times (I guess hundreds) was I told this was not possible

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295757#Comment_120295757

You were told the Protocol would be 'amended' but would stay - it has. As does the border in the Irish Sea and customs infrastructure,

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295775#Comment_120295775

There’s one prediction I got right anyhow! I hadn’t named francie directly, but I think you all knew he would be first to prove me right

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295683#Comment_120295683

Well I have no idea who, but one side is briefing wrong then. Here is what British gov are saying.

“The Windsor Framework safeguards sovereignty and fixes the democratic deficit by putting the people of Northern Ireland in charge:

• The new Stormont Brake means the democratically elected Northern Ireland Assembly can oppose new EU goods rules that would have significant and lasting effects on everyday lives in Northern Ireland. They will do so on the same basis as the ‘petition of concern’ mechanism in the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement, needing the support of 30 members from at least two parties. The Stormont Brake has been introduced by fundamentally rewriting the Treaty and goes significantly further than the ‘all or nothing vote’ under the old Protocol every four years at most.

“

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295801#Comment_120295801

You need the accompanying legal text.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295843#Comment_120295843

I agree, but I hope you remember what you have just posted about what eu and roi are briefing. My haunch is you might get a surprise.

downcow

You guys almost had me convinced over the past few years with your tedious arguments, that I was being over optimistic about the negotiations. Thankfully even I have been pleasantly surprised how far we have got so quickly. Don’t know yet until we see legal text if this is just another staging post or whether we have reached the goal.

here we have the ‘economic island’ scuppered and the electronic land border called for by uup instigated.

downcow

Much as I have struggle with the process of greening ni with the Irish language, maybe this is the moment for unionists to be magnanimous and be more supportive of its encouragement. Much easier from a position of strength.

I will find is much easier now to come back fully into the fold of uup, if this realises my optimism from my first ready of it. - realising we still need confirmation of the position.

a good day for unionism. One year without stormont was a very very small price to pay.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296413#Comment_120296413

There's not one mention of an electronic land border anywhere in there. What will be happening is data sharing so if/when non EU approved items cross the border and are found in the EU there is cooperation to track it back and punish those responsible, even potentially removing the green lane access for whoever brought it into NI and allowed it illegally enter the EU . Again none of this goes against the original NIP or changes it measurably it's all within the original scope for adjusting it.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296411#Comment_120296411

Considering which side in the last 7 years has told the most lies mistruths and ridiculous spin I think your hunch might be premature. One side(the EU and Ireland) is being very plain in their briefings the other side(UK government and Torys) ate refusing to use specifics. Even paisley junior has called this point out specifically as being too hard for the DUP to ever get to use.

Quitelife

The carry on of the DUP would make the Klu Klux Clan look like reasonable people!

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295796#Comment_120295796

You are indeed correct. You were told on many occasions by good republicans that the NIP wouldn't be amended. It has been. They were wrong.

You won't get them to admit it.

On the Stormont Brake, that is interesting. Say an EU measure is detrimental to Northern Ireland and the DUP seek to block it, but SF refuse to do so. How will that look for SF?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295683#Comment_120295683

Heard Simon Coveney being asked this morning how this Stormont Brake would work and he couldn't answer, which says a lot. The question was could the brake being applied by just parties designated as Unionists (or Nationalists) or could the brake only be applied if there was cross community between parties designated as both Nationalists & Unionists. Big difference between the two and he couldn't say.. extraordinary!

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296752#Comment_120296752

Not true, he wouldn't answer it, saying the PM was in NI briefing parties and it was a matter for him.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296967#Comment_120296967

Coveney wouldn't/ couldn't answer the question, as the answer appears uncertain. How this brake/ veto would be applied has been questioned further this morning and no clear answer. It looks like the same Irish solution for an Irish problem - a fudge. Just heard some Brit commentator saying it's not very important as unlikely to be deployed etc - how naïve can you get!

Quitelife

The DUP heartlands are East Derry, Antrim & North Down, is there anyway those areas could be gazumped into a small state and County Tyrone, Armagh , Fermanagh, West Derry( Foyle) and South Down be gazumped into the 26 Counties?

It would solve a lot of problems, other than that the Nationalist population of Nortern Ireland will never get fair play from the DUP .

Choochtown

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297257#Comment_120297257

Obviously that's a joke? (I hope)

... but it is an interesting "thought experiment"

If it were to happen and 20 years later Unionists from Tyrone, Armagh, Fermanagh etc. were interviewed along with Unionists from East Londonderry (as it would then be known), Antrim and North Down, I wonder who would have the most examples of discrimination?

... and would Down Hurling survive?

Quitelife

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297562#Comment_120297562

On the other hand you could argue that Nationalists have suffered discrimination all over the 6 counties for the past 100 years ?

The areas i mentioned East Londendery, Antrim & North Down have unionist majorities but the Others Tyrone, Armagh, West Derry , South Down have Nationalist Majorities with Fermanagh a marginal Nationalist majority but all of those spots are going to become bigger nationalist majoritys in coming years. Cant see how the DUP can keep all these nationalists locked in their old Unionist world forever ??

If i lived there i certainly wouldnt be putting up with their hatred!

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296652#Comment_120296652

I know francie says eu and roi are saying the opposite. But it is my understanding sf cannot block it but that unionists can enact it without alliance, sf etc.

I don’t believe it will ever be enacted as I don’t think it will be needed now

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296752#Comment_120296752

if francie is correct then it’s no wonder he is not answering it. David Campbell from lcc has just said on radio that it is an incredibly powerful tool, provided francies analysis is wrong.