NI Dec 22 Assembly Election

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120530918#Comment_120530918

Not sure it is a strong enough show for the DUP to continue their belligerence. The TUV have a long way to go to be in any way relevant.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120530918#Comment_120530918

A more belligerent but smaller unionism — total unionist seats fall from 206 to to 187

Sam Russell

Those figures show a move towards the more extreme party - SDLP to SF, UUP to DUP, but a move of some from the UUP to Alliance.

Not good for NI - more extreme sectarianism - which is a major threat to the future of NI.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120531227#Comment_120531227

UUP to DUP?

The DUP are projected to gain one seat. Clearly there is no move in the UUP to the DUP.

The UUP's seats seem to be splitting to the Alliance and TUV.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120531255#Comment_120531255

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120531255#Comment_120531255

I would think it is UUP to DUP, and DUP to the TUV.

The one seat gain by DUP is a net gain. The UUP also lose out to the Alliance. I doubt that there were many who would move from UUP to TUV, but one never knows.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120533497#Comment_120533497

I think Beattie has put clear water between the UUP and DUP.

Most likely the Alliance are picking up the frustrated with Unionism vote and the TUV are picking up the frustrated with Westminster/Dublin/EU/US and anything that has a pulse vote.

The UUP loss almost equals the TUV and Alliance gains combined.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120533553#Comment_120533553

That doesn't mean that UUP votes are flowing straight from UUP to TUV. It's equally consistent with DUP gains from UUP being offset by losses to TUV. (Or of course it could be a combination of both phenomena._

Beattie putting "clear water between the UUP and the DUP" doesn't mean that UUP won't lose votes to DUP. If anything, it makes it likely that they will. The tactic makes a clear distinction between UUP and DUP and implicitly invites voters to choose which they prefer. Foreseeably, some will prefer the DUP.

The point of this tactic would not be to stem a flow of votes from UUP to DUP, but rather to stem the flow of votes from UUP to Alliance, by appealing to voters who are open to voting Unionist but want a party that clearly clearly distances itself from the rather repellent DUP/TUV brand of unionism.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120541724#Comment_120541724

I did say I 'think' and 'it's likely'.

It could also be as you say.

These are the numbers Donaghy used for his projection.

SF 31%

DUP 24%

AP 15%

UUP 10%

SDLP 7%

TUV 6%

These are the latest Lucid Talk polling numbers,

Sinn Fein: 29% - -2

DUP: 25% - =

Alliance: 13% - -2

UUP: 11% - -1

SDLP: 7% - =

TUV: 7% - =

I thnk it's going to take an election to give us the true picture.

I would have thought, that the Alliance would be showing better, especially at local level. I would also have expected a rising TUV vote

Peregrinus

These figures measure support for the various parties, but they tell us nothing about where that support has come from. E.g. SF are projected to be on 29% or 31% - split the difference and call it 30%. That's 7% more than they got at the last local elections in 2019. Which means (ignoring first time voters, and voters who have died or emigrated since 2019) 7% of voters who voted for a different party last time will vote for SF this time. But who did that 7% vote for last time? Neither poll asked that question, so we have no data on it; we can only draw speculative inferences.

And in fact the true figure is like to be more than 7%, since there will probably be some voters who voted SF last time but who, for whatever reason, will vote for another party this time.

You can research where voters are coming from or going to (by asking interview subjects "Who did you vote for last time? Who will you vote for this time?") and you can map the flows of voter between different parties. That gives you much more information than simply measuring current levels of support for each party. If they have the money to do so, political parties themselves will often commission research of this kind (but they tend not to publish the results).

But these figures don't do that. Nor will the election results do that.

pixelburp

Surprised there hasn't been at least some bump of interest since polls opened today: has anyone been following them? I can't imagine there's much of a rush to the polling booths, but hard not to think this will be yet another instructive election in light of the WF.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612970#Comment_120612970

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/man-arrested-after-dup-candidate-threatened-and-told-to-leave-polling-station/1753462882.html

Probably won't be interest until results start to roll in. It's a different country up there as this story shows.

retalivity

After spending weeks lundying Doug Beattie and the UUP about 'subjeeegation', wee seimi b went out today and voted for....the UUP. Priceless.

Hope the dup take a kicking.

FrancieBrady

Hard to get news. Radio Ulster doesn't start until 10am, anyone hear what the turnout was?

EDIT: Actually, BBCNI journalists are on strike today.

Sam Russell

I think not many people care about the election in NI.

It is hardly making any headlines, and the build up to it was very very low key.

O'Neill

Live in London and not a peep about it over here.

FrancieBrady

There never is huge coverage of local elections outside their locality.

Lionel Fusco

Any news or early indications as to how counts are going?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615609#Comment_120615609

Early yet but tweeters seem to think turnout is up from previous elections

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615298#Comment_120615298

That's mad. I'd imagine there must be a few election anoraks amongst that cohort who are raging that they're missing out.

FrancieBrady

Conor McAuley on RTE.

SF looking like biggest party in local government.

DUP vote down but remains to be seen how many seats they'll hold onto.

SDLP down

Alliance up

UUP down

Lionel Fusco

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120616268#Comment_120616268

Yeah I'm following David McCann on twitter SF and AP the big winners and UUP and stoops the big losers.

Francie Barrett

Looks like a huge surge for Sinn Fein, mostly at the expense of the SDLP. DUP vote holding up at the expense of the UUP. Alliance party making gains, but not as much as they might have hoped for.

Seeing a few councils where Sinn Fein had close to two quotas, but only fielded one candidate.

weemcd

Sinn Fein surging, things looking very good for Alliance also. DUP seem to be performing OK but one has to remember they ran for less seats this time and look to be down also, not a great look.

Shaping up to be a very bad day for SDLP and UUP at present. May see leadership changes in the not too distant future for both.

Francie Barrett

https://twitter.com/ClarNiUigin/status/1659551943327375361

Sinn Fein councillor in Ballymena of all places.

Lionel Fusco

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120616679#Comment_120616679

I wouldn't be surprised if the UUP and SDLP folded altogether. There's is literally no point in either anymore.

Quitelife

Sinn Fein on course to be the largest party in Northern Ireland similar to Stormont Elections gaining many new seats .

Largest party in the South too.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120616771#Comment_120616771

They remain a distant third on councils down here due to the 2019 drubbing. The vanishing act that was elected for them in 2014 in my area went out on the first count.

Francie Barrett

https://twitter.com/Ireland_Votes2/status/1659559413848367105

Some of the swings in certain areas against the SDLP are massive.

pixelburp

Here's an example of what I'm reading as a DUP vote "collapse", insofar as SF are now topping the 1st Prefs. At a glance it looks like the unionist votes went to either UUP or TUV, thus letting SF sneak ahead so nothing especially surprising in that particular constituency. I'd not be surprised if this might be repeated elsewhere: a fragmented Unionist vote compared with a more focused Nationalist one, the latter basically ensuring a stronger showing.

https://twitter.com/Ireland_Votes2/status/1659556169558441987?cxt=HHwWhoC2teTi9ocuAAAA

Quitelife

North & South how many constituencies are Sinn Fein now the largest party?

A huge amount from Cork North Central to Foyle Derry . At a rough guess 50% of all North & South Constituencies meaning by a country mile the largest party on the Island.