NI Dec 22 Assembly Election

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625928#Comment_120625928

Journalist Sam McBride got himself into some hot water yesterday for echoing (accidentally or deliberately) the Paisleyism's of 'they breed like rabbits' in the Sunday Independent (NI edition)

He claims he wasn't conciously aware he was doing it and who knows, I think what is more revealing of Sam and journalists like him, north and south, is a deep seated bias. It is here in this paragraph written loud and clear, a UI is a 'threat'.

Maybe if so called independent journalists looked at a UI as a possible solution to the north's problem's we might go forward instead of stagnating or regressing. I'm not talking about them becoming advocates for a UI, just to look at it without blinkers, like the one above.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625949#Comment_120625949

What 'nonsense' is this now?

P.S. Kielty got the show host job because he has been popular in Ireland for a long time... he was popular long before he decided to share his views on the murder of his father by the local UFF.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625944#Comment_120625944

The DUP has noted issues with socially illiberal attitudes WRT to abortion and same-sex marriage. Or indeed, the age of the planet in some single examples. You vote for these people so I presume you're well aware of this.

For someone who loves trotting out that acronym like it makes NI special among the ~30 nations on this continent... you'd think you'd be keen to have its various economic issues addressed by sober politicians? But yeah, sure sure, affect outrage and insult about your person rather than address the immediacy of the North lacking the institutions to solve its economic problems.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625958#Comment_120625958

Noted issues with democratic decisions too, from the Anglo Irish Agreement to the GFA, to a majority of MLA's wanting legislation enacted, to the election of First Minister.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625899#Comment_120625899

Couple of thoughts:

Yes, SF is successfully consolidating the nationalist vote. And, I suggest, also successfully building the nationalist vote (in a way that the unionist vote is not being built by anybody).

"Opposed" may be a a strong word, but it's not just that 70% (NI) or 75% (RoI) of voters didn't vote for SF; they all had other candidates, other programmes, that they preferred to SF's offering. And that's my point about coalitions; SF's vote abundantly qualifies them to seek to build a governing coalition with other parties, but it doesn't give them a democratic mandate to implement their programme over the protests of other parties. The programme for a coalition government will have to be built on elements of several parties' programmes - either elements which are common to the various programmes, or elements which the various parties can all agree to support.

I'm far from saying that SF can't build this kind of relationship with coalition parties; I'm just saying that their capacity for doing so, or even their understanding of why they should do so, is wholly untested. For a long time they were on the fringes of Irish political life, where it's quite easy to maintain a basically oppositional stance towards all other parties. Suddenly now they're at the centre, where that stance will be hugely damaging to them, because it may keep them out of government, or it may destabilise any government of which they form a part.

SF have been very adept at repositioning themselves and developing new positions and new poltical strategies that have succesfully garnered votes for them on a scale that would have seemed unimaginable before, so I certainly don't see them as incapable of change. But they are going to have to be just as agile in making the changes needed to become a successful party of government. If they develop a Tory-like sense of entitlement that, because they are the largest party, they have a natural right to form a government and to implement their programme more or less in toto, that's not going to work out well for them.

As for winning over the middle ground — there definitely is a new and growing middle ground in NI. But it doesn't consist of swing voters who might choose between unionist and nationalist parties. My sense is that the proportion of NI voters who are genuinely open to voting both for the "right" nationalist part and for the "right" unionist part is still tiny. The middle ground/unaligned parties in NI attract votes from (a) people who could vote for a nationalist party but would never vote for a unionist party; (b) people who could vote for a unionist party but would never vote for a nationalist party; and (c) people who reject the unionist/nationalist dichotomy, see it as harmful or regressive, and would be unlikely to vote for either a unionist or a nationalist party.

Which means, if I'm right, the portion of the middle ground that could be won over is quite small — only one of these three groups would contemplate voting for a nationalist party and, right now, if they did vote for a nationalist party it might be more likely to be the SDLP than SF.

SF's strategy for maximising the share of the middle ground vote that they can win is a tricky one, since it involves distancing themselves from militant nationalism. And doing that, obviously, could alienate some of their core support.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625994#Comment_120625994

"Opposed" may be a a strong word, but it's not just that 70% (NI) or 75% (RoI) of voters didn't vote for SF; they all had other candidates, other programmes, that they preferred to SF's offering. And that's my point about coalitions; SF's vote abundantly qualifies them to seek to build a governing coalition with other parties, but it doesn't give them a democratic mandate to implement their programme over the protests of other parties. The programme for a coalition government will have to be built on elements of several parties' programmes - either elements which are common to the various programmes, or elements which the various parties can all agree to support.

'Opposed to' is too strong Peregrinus.

I didn't vote SF because I opposed the PBP or Soc Dem or Lab candidate. I just preferred what SF offered this time. Someone else might prefer FF's offering this time to SF's.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625915#Comment_120625915

And I think he lived in London for a while also.

He did a good segment on Dublin pubs a few years back which is probably still on Youtube.

Good to have someone in that role championing both Ireland & NI, which is how it should be, in my humble opinion.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120626197#Comment_120626197

There are many people from both communities in NI working in southern media and entertainment. Kielty is not an exception to the rule.

 Dearbhail McDonald, Susan McKay, John Kelly, Brian Kennedy, our most popular soccer commentator George Hamilton and on it goes.

Lionel Fusco

After these results and especially after the pathetic showing of the TUV will Jeffrey Donaldson be able to manoeuvre the DUP back into Stormont and implementation of the Windsor framework?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120626591#Comment_120626591

If they can get something that will save face from the British government, they will go back in. They have a track record on this 'Never Never... well maybe' behaviour with the AIA, The GFA, parades and flags etc.

As a strategy, that that behaviour is only eroding the Unionist vote, seems to completely escape them.

Choochtown

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625949#Comment_120625949

 "change from Shinner supporting republican to a well rounded young man who respects his neighbours, whatever their background."

Yet another disgusting post from you downcow with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

I've no issue with Paddy identifying as a republican or supporting Sinn Fein (although to my knowledge he has never declared either)

What I do have an issue with is your belief that he has "changed" into a "well rounded young man who respects his neighbours, whatever their background"

He's always been that. You insistence that he hasn't is straight out of the UFF phrasebook when they tried to justify the brutal murder of his father by spreading false rumours that he was connected to paramilitaries when he 100% was not.

maccored

downcow - will the unionists go back into stormont and if not why not? also, whats your personal opinion on the stormont scenario? I think they should go do what they're paid to do and represent people.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120624600#Comment_120624600

hilarious interview. basically unionists deserve council seats even if they dont win any democratically. personally I think its a good view into the headspace of unionism - it just cant accept that it needs to share.

pixelburp

And here we are, myopia and inert strategists by example.

“Whilst the DUP vote held up well, whilst we held our seats, I think that we need to work with our fellow unionists to increase turnout in areas where unionists expect to do well and to ensure the splitting of the unionist vote is avoided and people transfer.

“I accept that unionism needs to recognise the task in front of it, we need to do more to get our people out to vote, we need to do more to win seats.

...

He said: “We have knowledge across Northern Ireland of Sinn Féin workers from Wexford, from Dublin, from Limerick, from Cork, being bussed into areas to get the vote out.

I dunno how else to see this kind of thinking. The entire DUP narrative is, by the tongue of its leader, inherently self limiting and besieged by its own insistence the world has "unionist" and nothing else beyond it except foreign hordes up to such underhand tactics as ... .. encouraging people to vote! Scurrilous. No reflection that it might need to redefine itself for a broader church, perhaps no longer buying a strictly domineering sense of Unionism. Naw. It also almost reads like the Silent Majority fallacy: those Unionists sitting at home twiddling their thumbs while the Tadhgs steal their lunch.

And yet these clods who would get outplayed by everyone around them still hold the Executive to ransom.

https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-northern-ireland-election-jeffrey-donaldson-6074461-May2023/

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120626277#Comment_120626277

Apparently Kielty is still going to live in London and just commute across once a week to do the show. Kinda like the situation when the Act of Union was in place!

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628730#Comment_120628730

"We have knowledge across Northern Ireland of Sinn Féin workers from Wexford, from Dublin, from Limerick, from Cork, being bussed into areas to get the vote out."

And is this true? Were the Shinners busing up party workers from the south to canvas in the north? Would this not be seen as interfering in the elections of another jurisdiction? Like the Russians supposedly meddling in USA elections or Brexit etc.

Sinn Féin can argue it is all one party and free to do this but getting to and/or crossing the line.

Any read Shane Ross's biography of Mary Lou? He paints a very interesting portrait of a SF Ard Fheis, where he observes the northern and southern contingents of SF and concludes that they are like oil & water and never the twain shall mix.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628842#Comment_120628842

Was reading an interview with him today where he said commuting ‘would not be as good as living here’.

Don’t tell downcow or his ‘decent’ identity will be removed! 😁

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628857#Comment_120628857

Green/PBP/WP supporters go North to canvass for their parties; Labour and occasionally FF supporters go to canvass for the SDLP.

The UUP used to get Tory figures over to try boost them, long since stopped as the Tories are toxic and more aligned to the DUP

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628857#Comment_120628857

Ever hear the phrase ‘paper doesn’t refuse ink’?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628890#Comment_120628890

Have to say the chagrin about the Shinners just being more popular with the electorate is funny.

First it was they are standing too many candidates and Unionists can’t get elected.

Then it was they are having children as part of a some sinister SF plot.

Now it’s they are using fellow Irish people to help them.

Brilliant really.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628857#Comment_120628857

God knows if it's true and I'd welcome proof; cos apart from anything else I'm not sure what value a Dublin accent handing out fliers or knocking on doors would bring. If anything there's an argument it'd have the opposite effect: all Politics being Local after all. Drawing equivalence with russian interference though is OTT. It's scarcely interference for one thing.

In any case, Sinn Fein are not the first multinational party to exist, they're not even the only all island party either what with PBP or The Greens (themselves cross continental!); and unless there's explicit laws saying you cannot have foreign national canvas this whole argument of the DUP smells like another attempt to stir fear and resentment over Dem 'Uns rather than try to figure how to move the province forward.

Cos again, their entire philosophical baseline exists as a dyke against what it sees as encroaching change. It's ideologically allergic to forward momentum or basic consensus because it is literal conservatism in action: that is, conserving a status quo that is slowly becoming extinct.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120626914#Comment_120626914

Now just how would you 100% know that? You obviously have no idea of the murky goings on north of the border.

local nationalists also spread rumours that the murdered man for whom the retaliation took place, was connected to loyalist paramilitaries. I couldn’t possibly Clain I know 100% he wasn’t.

I can tell you paddy has changed dramatically since getting out of the heat of sectarian south down for quite a few years. It is my view that he clearly respects my local community now.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628572#Comment_120628572

I have moved my position recently. I cannot deny supporting their stance of staying out but I think it will soon be time to go back. They need to get a little more out of negotiations and then they must do the shinner trick ie go back in portraying victory. That’s what they need to learn from sf. Eg sf sold out on most of their past promises and principals with gfa but they portrayed it as a victory.

so yes I think it will be back in autumn

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628885#Comment_120628885

So do you think he can’t afford to move from Uk to roi. think about what you are saying. Remember he is a comedian

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629373#Comment_120629373

Probably has kids in school, other commitments etc. I don’t know. I do know he said commuting would ‘not be as good’ as living here in what you call the ‘sectarian south’.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629361#Comment_120629361

the gfa agreement gave us peace. as far as I remember the dup werent into the idea at the time. Funny how its republicans bad for fighting back and then republicans bad for pursing peace. Then again - did you watch that video of yer man complaining that unionists were being left without representation because they didnt win seats etc - which was the fault of SF. None so blind as those who dont see. still knee deep in blaming the other side rather than taking responsibility and trying to get votes outside of unionism.

maccored

what can they get out of negotiations btw? the border will remain in the sea. it wont be back on land. sure they arent just huffing that they're now in the minority and dont have a first minister anymore? Thats what it looks like.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629778#Comment_120629778

I did see it and I completely disagree with him (Danny Kennedy). I have always held Danny in very high esteem for his honesty and integrity. He had not been to bed the night before and has had an awfull 40 years at the hands of the Ira and sf while living in south Armagh. I guess it was a mix of no sleep,extreme disappointment that his moderate uup had lost more ground to the dup and TUV, and ptsd all combining in a perfect storm. Not his best moment

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629779#Comment_120629779

I believe they will be given what you will call a fig leaf, but I think it will be enough. There are strong vibes coming from Westminster that when labour get in at next election they will begin a pretty swift journey back into EU. That will do a Ui cause serious damage.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120629864#Comment_120629864

Unionist messes up and it's somebody else's fault again.

If you couple Danny's comments with Ian Paisley's attempts to require a supermajority or with the whinging about Catholics having families, or the historical attempts to gerrymander Unionist majorities, it isn't hard to see the resurfacing of supremacy traits in what he said.