November 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for the updates, I am too late to edit my table but will remember that your dates are here. This is the revised list of dates chosen for the low maximum value ...

11, 16, 19,19,19 21 22 23,23 24 25 27 28,28,28,28,28,28 29,29 30,30,30,30

Consensus scores 3 for 28th only, 2 for 27th, 29th or 30th, 1 for any date mentioned 11th to 25th, and zero for any date not mentioned

Normal scores 1 for 1st-10th, 2 for 11th-20th and 3 for 21st-30th.

Your score will be determined from best possible division of the guesses into 3/3, 2/3 and 1/3 on the basis of similar error. With 24 forecasts, this will mean finding groups of eight that are separated by error magntiudes. It may not be a perfect split, for example if 28th is correct, there would be 9 guesses 27th-29th, and 9 23rd-26th plus 30th. Anyway, if the actual date is not one chosen by us that won't change the concept, any outcome before the 20th will mean that 11th to 23rd will score best.

Tae laidir

Athenry min 0.9 yesterday.

pauldry

Probably will hold for a week at least. Mild nights coming this week with rain.

M.T. Cranium

MAX before today was 14.4, for reference. IMT is 8.2 through 4th.

DOCARCH

High of 14.7c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

pauldry

Met Eireann has 16c forecast for Thursday so a new mark is likely then.

M.T. Cranium

Better late than never first week summary ...

IMT was on 9.3 C which is 0.9 above normal for the period.

MAX 14.7, MIN 0.9

PRC 177% of normal

SUN 98.5% (591/600)

Have not been tracking low max yet.

DOCARCH

Max of 17.1c at Shannon AP yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT had soared to 9.94 C by 10th, today might push it to 10.3 and tomorrow 10.6. It won't likely get much higher than that, will it ever get back down as far as highest IMT forecast 9.9 (Pauldry)? Maybe, but my bonus question is looking a bit sketchy at this point. Our highest guess for low max was 6.0 from Sunflower3, 5.6 from DOCARCH and 5.5 Kindred Spirit.

pauldry

Lowest I can see for Knock is 8.8c on November 4th. I'm sure this will be beaten. Won't it? The old min temperature also looks a bit dodgy unless current forecast changes as it could.

appledrop

17.5 is our new Max at Newport yesterday.

Jpmarn

Max 17.6°C at Finner Camp on the 13th according to Met.ie Yesterday’s weather page.

Joe Public

Not that it counts here but we got the warmest Nov night on record last Friday night, 15.5C at Shannon.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/1111/1335623-weather/

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 10.6, thanks to a very mild second week which averaged 12.0 C, which was 4.3 above normal.

MAX 17.6, MIN 0.9

PRC 150% of normal, the second week fairly average (122%, of which Valentia contributed about half the total excess).

SUN now at 91% with the second week rather cloudy at 84%.

Low max so far 8.8 on 4th (Knock).

pauldry

Nought can be seen in one or two spots today.

pauldry

New min max in Knock 8.6c yesterday.

Fog there today means another min max likely. This is probably the week for it as the end of November looks somewhat milder

DOCARCH

Max of 6.8c yesterday at Markree Castle.

Min of -0.9c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

M.T. Cranium

Knock at 7.3 leads for location among those chosen by forecasters (this determines location points only). Markree scores 1 for Normal but was not chosen by any forecaster.

This may become irrelevant if a selected location goes lower in either case.

pauldry

Markree is 1c at 11pm today. Very foggy in Sligo today.

It was 2c at midnight. So will be at least that.

Danno

Ballyhaise low max today 17th Nov.

+3.8c

M.T. Cranium

Adjusting the low max at Ballyhaise on 17th to 4.4 C as reported today. Also new low of -1.0 at Gurteen on 17th.

Tracking the low max predictions ... tied temp values are sorted by date, earliest first.

The table will contain the current value and will be updated in the thread when necessary.

FORECASTER ______ Low max

Sunflower3 ________6.0 30th Oak Park

DOCARCH ________ 5.6 28th Ballyhaise

Kindred Spirit ______5.5 28th Knock

Mr stonewall ______ 5.3 16th Dunsany

Artane2002 _______ 5.2 22nd Knock

Tae laidir _________ 5.2 23rd Knock

mcburns07 ________5.2 29th Knock

Bsal _____________ 5.0 24th Mount Dillon

Gonzo ____ (-1) ___ 4.9 29th Knock

M.T. Cranium ______ 4.6 21st Ballyhaise

waterways _ (-3) ___4.5 19th Mount Dillon

pauldry ___________4.5 28th Knock

___ Con Sensus ____4.5 28th

Dacogawa ________ 4.4 30th Knock

_ LOW MAX to date _ 4.4 17th Ballyhaise

Jpmarn ___________4.3 30th Knock

MrSkinner ________ 4.2 23rd Ballyhaise

Appledrop ________ 4.1 28th Knock

John mac _________ 4.1 25th Knock

200motels ________ 3.9 28th Knock

Joe Public _________3.8 19th Mullingar

sryanbruen ________3.8 27th Knock

___ Normal _______ 3.8 last third Knock

Adam240610 ______ 1.1 28th mullingar

Danno ____________0.7 30th Mullingar

Sweet Talkin Romeo _0.1 11th Mullingar

Dasa29 ___________-2.0 19th Mullingar

----------------------- - - -

M.T. Cranium

Probably a new MIN set, as -2 on hourly temps earlier today (Markree 0500h).

appledrop

Yep we have a new Min -1.8 at Athenry on 19th Nov.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT has fallen to 9.1, the third week average was 5.9 which was 1.2 below normal for the period.

MAX 17.6, MIN -1.8

PRC now 141% of normal, with the third week 124% of normal.

SUN up to 114% after a bright third week at 161.5% of normal.

Low max 4.4 Ballyhaise 17th (details in a previous post)

M.T. Cranium

Here are the lowest max values for stations selected, this has a bearing on location points for the bonus question (values elsewhere, unless low max for the month, don't have any impact on the scoring) ...

1. Ballyhaise 4.5 (17th)
2. Dunsany 6.0 (17th) and 6.1 (22nd)
3. Mullingar 6.1 (17th)
4. Mountdillon 6.4 (17th)
5. Oak Park 6.6 (22nd)

Note in researching this, I noticed that Ballyhaise now has 4.5 listed for a max on 17th, rather than the 4.4 I have in the table.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 8.8 (8.7 after 29th by the way), fourth week average was 8.1, which was 1.4 above normal. This may end on 8.6 although the downward pressure today is rather slight.

MAX remains 17.6 and MIN -1.8, past two nights had some close calls with that value but failed to break it apparently (to be confirmed for 30th).

PRC has edged up to 142% with the fourth week average 146% of normal. This would likely fall to about 135% at end of month as little rain will be added today to 29th slight totals.

SUN is now 117% with the fourth week average 123.5%. Given the cloudy skies prevalent yesterday and today, that may be closer to 110% at end of month.

LOW MAX (bonus) appears to be settled at 4.5 Ballyhaise 17th. The only new detail to add is that Knock moved into the table of also-rans with a 6.2 on 29th. Will score the bonus question today. (not much chance of any changes today as all locations currently warmer than their coldest maxima except Casement, once that clears 7 C will proceed)

M.T. Cranium

So, I have gone one step further and provided a scoring table based on preliminary values. This will be adjusted on 2nd Dec when all values confirmed, and placed in scoring order, for now it is in the forecast table order. Scoring appears to be quite good in general.

Preliminary scoring for November 2022

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Low max ________ TOTALS

Estimated values ___ 8.7_17.6_-1.8_135_110 __ 4.5 17th Ballyhaise

pauldry ___________13 _ 19 _ 20*_ 06 _ 07 __ 06 02 01 _____ 74

Jpmarn ___________21 _ 15 _ 16*_ 13 _ 06 __ 06 01 01 _____ 79

mcburns07 ________23 _ 15 _ 00*_ 10 _ 00 __ 05 01 01 _____ 55

Sweet Talkin Romeo _23 _ 12 _ 00*_ 04 _ 05 __ 02 03 02 _____ 51

Sunflower3 _______ 24 _ 17 _ 03*_ 12 _ 06 __ 03 01 01 _____ 67

Dacogawa ________ 24 _ 14 _ 06*_ 07 _ 06 __ 06 01 01 _____ 65

Gonzo ____ (-1) ___ 24 _ 10 _ 15*_ 14 _ 06 __ 05 01 01 _76-1=75

Mr stonewall ______ 21 _ 18 _ 04*_ 08 _ 04 __ 04 03 02 _____ 64

waterways _ (-3) ___21 _ 16 _ 12*_ 11 _ 06 __ 06 03 01 _76-3=73

Artane2002 _______ 20 _ 17 _ 16*_ 08 _ 08 __ 05 03 01 _____ 78

Tae laidir _________ 20 _ 13 _ 12*_ 15 _ 08 __ 05 03 01 _____ 77

Appledrop ________ 20 _ 16 _ 08*_ 15 _ 08 __ 05 02 01 _____ 75

___ Con Sensus ___ 20 _ 15 _ 08*_ 15 _ 07 __ 06 01 01 _____ 73

DOCARCH ________ 19 _ 18 _ 07*_ 13 _ 06 __ 03 02 03 _____ 71

MrSkinner ________ 18 _ 17 _ 04*_ 08 _ 06 __ 05 03 03 _____ 64

200motels ________ 18 _ 15 _ 13*_ 05 _ 06 __ 05 02 01 _____ 65

Adam240610 ______18 _ 14 _ 02*_ 05 _ 08 __ 02 02 02 _____ 53

John mac _________17 _ 11 _ 06*_ 07 _ 08 __ 05 02 01 _____ 57

Kindred Spirit ______17 _ 14 _ 06*_ 03 _ 07 __ 03 02 01 _____ 53

sryanbruen ________17 _ 06 _ 01*_ 07 _ 07 __ 05 02 01 _____ 46

M.T. Cranium ______ 16 _ 15 _ 06*_ 02 _ 04 __ 06 03 03 _____ 55

Bsal _____________ 14 _ 15 _ 10*_ 13 _ 09 __ 05 02 01 _____ 69

Joe Public _________13 _ 12 _ 01*_ 10 _ 04 __ 05 03 02 _____ 50

Dasa29 ___________13 _ 09 _ 16*_ 08 _ 07 __ 01 03 02 _____ 59

___ Normal _______ 10 _ 09 _ 01*_ 03 _ 08 __ 05 02 02 _____ 40

Danno ___________ 09 _ 13 _ 00*_ 13 _ 07 __ 02 01 02 _____ 47

----------------------- - - -

Minimum progression required for MIN, with highest raw score 18/20 (Pauldry) this becomes a reduced minimum progression with your score halfway from the raw score to the minimum progression score. The reductions were generally rather small as raw scores were running 4-6 behind the minimum progression values.

For the low max bonus, scores are based on errors in groups and as most of the field were fairly close to the outcome, there are mostly 4s and 5s after the group at 6/6 for value. For the date, up to 23rd scores 3/3, 24th to 28th scores 2/3, 29th-30th score 1/3. For location, Ballyhaise scored 3/3, Dunsany 2/3 (only one forecaster chose that) so I boosted Mullingar, the lone 1/3 to 2/3, and gave 1/3 to all other selections.

==================

(actual forecasts)

pauldry ___________9.9 _ 17.5 _ -2.0 _ 108 _ 095 __ 4.5 28th Knock

Jpmarn ___________9.1 _ 18.1 _ -2.5 _ 140 _ 090 __ 4.3 30th Knock

mcburns07 ________8.9 _ 17.1 __ 1.7 _ 150 _ 060 __ 5.2 29th Knock

Sweet Talkin Romeo _8.9 _ 16.8 __ 2.3 _ 103 _ 085 __ 0.1 11th Mullingar

Sunflower3 _______ 8.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.0 _ 125 _ 090 __ 6.0 30th Oak Park

Dacogawa ________ 8.6 _ 18.2 _ -3.5 _ 160 _ 090 __ 4.4 30th Knock

Gonzo ____ (-1) ___ 8.6 _ 16.6 _ -2.6 _ 138 _ 092 __ 4.9 29th Knock

Mr stonewall ______ 8.3 _ 17.8 _ -3.6 _ 157 _ 082 __ 5.3 16th Dunsany

waterways _ (-3) ___8.3 _ 17.2 _ -2.9 _ 122 _ 089 __ 4.5 19th Mount Dillon

Artane2002 _______ 8.2 _ 17.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 100 __ 5.2 22nd Knock

Tae laidir _________ 8.2 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 135 _ 101 __ 5.2 23rd Knock

Appledrop ________ 8.2 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 135 _ 100 __ 4.1 28th Knock

___ Con Sensus ___ 8.2 _ 17.1 _ -3.2 _ 135 _ 094 __ 4.5 28th

DOCARCH ________ 8.1 _ 17.8 _ -3.3 _ 140 _ 090 __ 5.6 28th Ballyhaise

MrSkinner ________ 8.0 _ 17.3 _ -3.7 _ 155 _ 090 __ 4.2 23rd Ballyhaise

200motels ________ 8.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.8 _ 106 _ 092 __ 3.9 28th Knock

Adam240610 ______8.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.3 _ 166 _ 098 __ 1.1 28th mullingar

John mac _________ 7.9 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 102 __ 4.1 25th Knock

Kindred Spirit ______7.9 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 095 __ 5.5 28th Knock

sryanbruen ________7.9 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 095 __ 3.8 27th Knock

M.T. Cranium ______ 7.8 _ 17.1 _ -3.5 _ 173 _ 079 __ 4.6 21st Ballyhaise

Bsal _____________ 7.6 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 103 __ 5.0 24th Mount Dillon

Joe Public _________7.5 _ 16.8 _ -4.4 _ 149 _ 081 __ 3.8 19th Mullingar

Dasa29 ___________7.5 _ 16.5 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 095 __-2.0 19th Mullingar

___ Normal _______ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 last third Knock (climatology)

Danno ___________ 7.1 _ 16.9 _ -5.7 _ 140 _ 095 __ 0.7 30th Mullingar

----------------------- - - -

For the low max bonus question, six points for the value, three for each of the others, that provides 1 or even 2 superbonus potential.

Dates chosen form this profile ...

11, 16, 19,19,19 21 22 23,23 24 25 27 28,28,28,28,28,28 29,29 30,30,30,30

Locations as follows, with scoring implications:

Knock ___ 12 ___ Con Sensus and Normal score 3 if correct

Mullingar__ 5 ___ Con Sensus scores 2, Normal scores 1 if correct

Ballyhaise _ 3 ___ Con Sensus scores 1, Normal scores 2 if correct

Mountdillon 2 ____ Con Sensus scores 1, Normal scores 1 if correct

Dunsany __ 1 ____ Con Sensus scores 0, Normal scores 1 if correct

Oak Park__ 1 ____ both score zero if correct

any other _ 0 ____ Forecasters score 2 or 1 if they select lowest of chosen locations or second lowest

any other _______ Normal scores 1 for Markree, Athenry, otherwise zero

To clarify, if location is not one of the seven chosen, forecasters can still score 2/3 if they do select the lowest of those seven.

==================

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished on 8.8 so that will change all scoring by one point up or down. Otherwise I didn't notice anything to change my mind about the other estimated values, will check the MS tomorrow and update the scoring table with the annual updates, and four seasons results to follow.

May be a bit slow with those as getting bogged down in a lot of other contest work on other sites too. Should all be there by Saturday 3rd I hope.

M.T. Cranium

The scoring is confirmed now, MS had same averages as my estimates for PRC and SUN. Here's the entire package of updated scoring ...

Confirmed scoring for November 2022

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Low max ________ TOTALS

Confirmed values ___ 8.8_17.6_-1.8_135_110 __ 4.5 17th Ballyhaise

Jpmarn ___________22 _ 15 _ 16*_ 13 _ 06 __ 06 01 01 _____ 80

Artane2002 _______ 19 _ 17 _ 16*_ 08 _ 08 __ 05 03 01 _____ 77

Tae laidir _________ 19 _ 13 _ 12*_ 15 _ 08 __ 05 03 01 _____ 76

pauldry ___________14 _ 19 _ 20*_ 06 _ 07 __ 06 02 01 _____ 75

Appledrop ________ 19 _ 16 _ 08*_ 15 _ 08 __ 05 02 01 _____ 74

Gonzo ____ (-1) ___ 23 _ 10 _ 15*_ 14 _ 06 __ 05 01 01 _75-1=74

waterways _ (-3) ___20 _ 16 _ 12*_ 11 _ 06 __ 06 03 01 _75-2=72

___ Con Sensus ___ 19 _ 15 _ 08*_ 15 _ 07 __ 06 01 01 _____ 72

DOCARCH ________ 18 _ 18 _ 07*_ 13 _ 06 __ 03 02 03 _____ 70

Bsal _____________ 13 _ 15 _ 10*_ 13 _ 09 __ 05 02 01 _____ 68

Sunflower3 _______ 25 _ 17 _ 03*_ 12 _ 06 __ 03 01 01 _____ 68

Dacogawa ________ 23 _ 14 _ 06*_ 07 _ 06 __ 06 01 01 _____ 64

200motels ________ 17 _ 15 _ 13*_ 05 _ 06 __ 05 02 01 _____ 64

MrSkinner ________ 17 _ 17 _ 04*_ 08 _ 06 __ 05 03 03 _____ 63

Mr stonewall ______ 20 _ 18 _ 04*_ 08 _ 04 __ 04 03 02 _____ 63

Dasa29 __________ 12 _ 09 _ 16*_ 08 _ 07 __ 01 03 02 _____ 58

John mac _________16 _ 11 _ 06*_ 07 _ 08 __ 05 02 01 _____ 56

mcburns07 ________24 _ 15 _ 00*_ 10 _ 00 __ 05 01 01 _____ 56

M.T. Cranium ______ 15 _ 15 _ 06*_ 02 _ 04 __ 06 03 03 _____ 54

Adam240610 ______17 _ 14 _ 02*_ 05 _ 08 __ 02 02 02 _____ 52

Sweet Talkin Romeo _24 _ 12 _ 00*_ 04 _ 05 __ 02 03 02 _____ 52

Kindred Spirit ______16 _ 14 _ 06*_ 03 _ 07 __ 03 02 01 _____ 52

Joe Public _________12 _ 12 _ 01*_ 10 _ 04 __ 05 03 02 _____ 49

Danno ___________ 08 _ 13 _ 00*_ 13 _ 07 __ 02 01 02 _____ 46

sryanbruen ________16 _ 06 _ 01*_ 07 _ 07 __ 05 02 01 _____ 45

___ Normal _______ 09 _ 09 _ 01*_ 03 _ 08 __ 05 02 02 _____ 39

----------------------- - - -

Minimum progression required for MIN, with highest raw score 18/20 (Pauldry) this becomes a reduced minimum progression with your score halfway from the raw score to the minimum progression score. The reductions were generally rather small as raw scores were running 4-6 behind the minimum progression values.

For the low max bonus, scores are based on errors in groups and as most of the field were fairly close to the outcome, there are mostly 4s and 5s after the group at 6/6 for value. For the date, up to 23rd scores 3/3, 24th to 28th scores 2/3, 29th-30th score 1/3. For location, Ballyhaise scored 3/3, Dunsany 2/3 (only one forecaster chose that) so I boosted Mullingar, the lone 1/3 to 2/3, and gave 1/3 to all other selections.

==================

(actual forecasts) see previous post (preliminary scoring)

____________________________________________________________

==-- <<< Annual Scoring Summary January to November 2022 >>> --==

The table order continues now with the best 9/11. Ranks for total score continue to be shown and compared to previous month. (contest is eventually decided on best 10/12).

Appledrop still continues to lead the annual contests, holding off Con Sensus but Tae laidir has now moved even with Con Sensus into second (the tie only applies to Con) and a number of other forecasters have at least kept pace with those two (three). JPmarn and Artane2002 have moved up nicely this month. It's still looking like a scramble to the finish line but Appledrop has two lowest scores of 55, 57 to substitute for any lower scores that might emerge, and Tae laidir has 50, 52 as low scores for replacement after Dec. Good luck everybody.

If this table wraps (lines running over) try a lower screen mag if possible.

Total score ________________________________________________________ Best 9/11 (table based)

Rank (prev) _FORECASTER ___Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov__TOTAL //_ (rank) (prev)

_01 _ (01) _Appledrop _______67 _76 _55 _68 _79 _89 _57 _65 _68 _61 _74 __ 759 __ 647 (1) _ (1)

_02 _ (04) _ Tae laidir _______70 _77 _52 _66 _76 _64 _64 _68 _50 _67 _76 __ 730 __ 628 (2) _ (3)

01.5_(01.5) __ Con Sensus ___80 _70 _56 _77 _61 _70 _64 _64 _65 _66 _72 __ 745 __ 628 (t2)_(1.9)

_07 _ (07) _Mr stonewall _____67 _70 _57 _78 _68 _73 _43 _73 _39 _67 _63 __ 698 __ 616 (3) _ (2)

_03 _ (02) _ Bsal ___________61 _67 _69 _68 _73 _71 _68 _55 _69 _59 _68 __ 728 __ 614 (4) _ (5)

_04 _ (06) _Artane2002 _____ 59 _70 _55 _75 _60 _51 _68 _72 _58 _73 _77 __ 718 __ 612 (5) _(t8)

_05 _ (05) _dacogawa _______78 _63 _58 _50 _56 _77 _48 _77 _57 _79 _64 __ 707 __ 609 (t6) _(6)

_14 _ (16) _Gonzo __________43 _49 _67 _78 _65 _63 _70 _--- _77 _66 _74 __ 652 __ 609 (t6) _(t8)

_06 _ (03) _sryanbruen ______65 _58 _49 _67 _65 _67 _83 _65 _72 _64 _45 __ 700 __ 606 (8) _ (4)

_16 _ (17) _sunflower3 ______77 _60 _61 _68 _66 _59 _--- _72 _64 _46 _68 __ 641 __ 595 (9) _(10)

_11t_(t14) _Jpmarn _________54 _55 _55 _76 _44 _54 _71 _76 _31 _72 _80 __ 668 __ 593 (10)_(t14)

_17 _(t14) _Kindred Spirit ____80 _66 _48 _69 _55 _63 _63 _78 _66 _--- _52 __ 640 __ 592 (t11)_(7)

_09 _ (10) _Pauldry _________78 _77 _57 _55 _64 _75 _61 _50 _42 _49 _75 __ 683 __ 592 (t11)_(t12)

_10 _ (11) _DOCARCH ______ 78 _50 _47 _77 _61 _78 _42 _55 _70 _48 _70 __ 676 __ 587 (13) _ (t12)

_08 _ (08) _MrSkinner ______ 63 _63 _67 _82 _66 _70 _55 _56 _52 _47 _63 __ 684 __ 585 (14) _ (11)

_13 _ (13) _waterways ______ 65_ 45 _47 _69 _54 _56 _51 _73 _69 _65 _72 __ 666 __ 574 (15) _ (17)

_11t_ (09) _Dasa29 _________72 _50 _50 _65 _65 _63 _47 _64 _76 _58 _58 __ 668 __ 571 (16) _(t14)

_15 _ (12) _M.T. Cranium ____ 65 _45 _39 _81 _46 _79 _45 _71 _72 _54 _54 __ 651 __ 567 (17) _(t14)

_18t_ (19) _john mac________82 _53 _69 _54 _54 _73 _29 _46 _54 _49 _56 __ 619 __ 544 (18)_ (18)

_20 _ (20) _adam240610 ____ 54 _26 _54 _77 _47 _76 _55 _45 _59 _65 _52 __ 610 __ 539 (19) _ (19)

_18t_ (18) _Joe Public _______50 _57 _53 _66 _53 _57 _71 _58 _67 _38 _49 __ 619 __ 532 (20) _ (20)

_21 _ (21) _Danno _________ 30 _19 _64 _81 _57 _46 _80 _53 _52 _36 _46 __ 564*__ 515*(21) _(21)

20.5_ (20.3)__ NormaL _____ 60 _57 _54 _68 _55 _77 _38 _37 _60 _41 _39 __ 586 __511 (21.1)_(20.8)

_22 _ (22) _200motels ______ 57 _49 _---_74 _--- _--- _76 _45 _70 _ --- _64 __ 435

_23 _ (23) _esposito ________52 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _---_58 _--- _ --- _--- _ 110

_24 _ (24) _Gaoth laidir _____--- _--- _70 _--- _--- _--- _--- _36 _--- _ --- _--- _ 106

_25 _ (25) _Tazio __________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _48 _--- _57 _ --- _--- _ 105

_26 _ (26) _Bazlers ________ 56 _--- _--- _ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ --- _--- __56

_27 _ (---) _McBurns07 _____ ---_--- _--- _ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ --- _56 __ 56

_28 _ (---) _Sweet Talkin Romeo --_-- _--- _ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ --- _52 __ 52

==================================================

* Danno would have 588 total points and 539 for best 9/11 counting the alternate Aug score, and rest of field generally 2 pts lower.

Updated category scoring January to November 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________275 _220 _220 _165 _110 __110+__1100 _1100

Appledrop _____________ 224 _137 _ 127*_107_ 77 __ 78 _____760 _ 759

___ Consensus _________ 230*_144*_ 117 _ 94 _ 79 __ 81 _____745 _ 745

Tae laidir ______________226 _ 124 _ 116 _ 105 _80 __ 79 ____ 730 _ 730

Bsal __________________211 _ 143* _132 _83 _ 75 __ 84 ____ 728 _ 728

Artane2002 ___________ 233 _ 127 __125 _ 78 _ 73 __ 82 _____718 _ 718

Dacogawa _____________238 _130 _ 120 _ 73 _ 72 __ 74 _____ 707 _ 707

sryanbruen ____________218 _ 154 __89 _ 84 _ 83 __ 72 _____ 700 _ 700

Mr Stonewall ___________205 _126 _ 130 _ 90 _ 74 __ 73 _____ 698 _ 698

MrSkinner _____________217 _ 114 __ 90 _102*_82*__79 _____ 684 _ 684

Pauldry _______________223 _ 126 __114 _ 65 _ 78 __ 78 _____ 684 _ 683

DOCARCH _____________205 _ 138 _ 113 _ 83 _ 70 __ 67 _____ 676 _ 676

Jpmarn _______________203 _122 __ 96_104*_ 74 __ 69 _____ 668 _ 668

Dasa29 _______________198 _ 131 __108 _ 85 _ 76 __ 73 _____ 671 _ 668

waterways ____________ 218 _ 134 __ 85 _ 89 _ 85 __ 58 _____ 669 _ 666

M.T. Cranium __________ 216 _ 99 __ 107 _ 73 _ 74 __ 82 _____ 651 _ 651

Kindred Spirit __________204 _122 __ 93 _ 89 _ 67 __ 65 _____ 640 _ 640

Gonzo ________________195 _144 _ 101 _ 77 _ 69 __ 67 _____ 653 _ 652

Sunflower3 ____________198 _126 __ 87 _ 94 _ 66 __ 70 _____ 641 _ 641

Joe Public______________197 _135 __ 99 _ 77 _ 66 __ 49 _____ 623 _ 619

John mac _____________ 228*__89 __ 88 _ 75 _ 78 __ 62 _____ 620 _ 619

adam240610 __________ 205 __118 __98 _ 67 _ 64 __ 63 _____ 615 _ 610

__ NormaL ____________173 __104 __ 56 _ 75 _ 85 __93 _____ 586 _ 586

Danno _______________ 162 _ 134 __ 76 _ 89 _ 46 __ 60 _____ 567 _ 564

(Danno alt ____________ 162 _ 134 __ 76 _103 _ 56 __60 _____ 591 _ 588)

200motels _ (7/11)_____ 132 __ 99 __ 61 _ 61 _ 50 __ 43 _____ 446 _ 435

esposito _ (2/11)________ 46 __ 31 __ 03 _ 08 _ 09 __ 13 ______110 _ 110

Gaoth Laidir _(2/11)______39 __ 18 __ 03 _ 14 _ 11 __ 21 ______106 _ 106

Tazio ___ (2/11)_________26 __ 38 __ 20 _ 02 _ 16 __ 13 ______115 _105

Bazlers _ (1/11)_________ 24 __ 07 __ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

McBurns07 _ (1/11) ______24 __ 15 __ 00 _ 10 _ 00 __ 07 ______ 56 _ 56

Sweet Talkin Romeo (1/11)_24 __ 12 __ 00 _ 04 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 52 _ 52

=====================================

Alternate scoring lines for Danno, see discussion on August scoring for background (affects only PRC, SUN)

In the category scoring, bold shows first place in that category, bold italic shows second, an asterisk denotes third.

There are two forecasters tied for second in BONUS scoring, so there is no designated third.

Normal has a score equivalent to first in Bonus and is now also tied for first in SUN.

Con Sensus would be third for IMT and MAX, and in total scoring ranks second alone. Total scores are not coded however.

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Contest Final Update _ Autumn 2022

(Points _ 10 for top seasonal total, then 7 for 2nd, 6 for 3rd, etc, 2 for 7th, and 1 point for 8th-12th or >180 pts)

Table is in the order of total points.

Congrats to Appledrop who is our four seasons winner, Gonzo took top points in autumn and moved into second. Kindred Spirit was third and Bsal fourth.

FORECASTER _ Winter Score, Pts _ Spring Score, Pts _ Summer Score, Pts _ Autumn score, pts _ TOTALS

Appledrop ________ 217 ___ 5 _____ 202 ____ 4 ______211 ___ 7 ______ 203 __ 5 ______ 21

Gonzo ___________ 147 ___ 0 _____ 210 ____ 7 ______133^ __ 0 ______ 217 __10 _____ 17

Kindred Spirit _____ 233 __ 10 _____ 172 ____ 0 ______204 ___ 6 ______118^ _ 0______ 16

Bsal _____________216 ___ 4 ______210 ____ 7 ______194 ___ 1 ______ 196 __ 3 ______ 15

__ Con Sensus ____ 226 ___ 6 _____ 194 ____ 1 ______198 ___ 3 _______ 203 __ 5 ______15

MrSkinner ________213 ___ 3 ______215 ___ 10 ______181 ___ 1 ______ 162 __ 0 ______ 14

sryanbruen _______ 184 ___ 1 _____ 181 ____ 1 ______215 __ 10 ______ 181 __ 1 ______ 13

Tae laidir _________ 226 ___ 6 _____ 194 ____ 1 ______196 ___ 2 _______ 193 __ 2 ______11

Artane2002 _______ 209 ___ 1 _____ 190 ____ 1 ______191 ___ 1 _______ 208 __ 7 _____ 10

dacogawa ________ 175 ___ 0 _____ 164 ____ 0 ______202 ___ 5 _______ 200 __ 4 ______ 9

Mr stonewall ______ 210 ___ 2 _____ 203 ____ 5 ______189 ___ 1 _______ 169 __ 0 ______ 8

Pauldry __________ 227 ___ 7 _____ 176 ____ 0 ______186 ___ 1 _______ 166 __ 0 ______ 8

waterways ________178 ___ 0 _____ 170 ____ 0 ______180 ___ 1 _______ 206 __ 6 ______ 7

Jpmarn __________ 166 ___ 0 _____ 175 ____ 0 ______201 ___ 4 _______ 183 __ 1 ______ 5

Danno ____________ 73 ___ 0 _____ 202 ____ 4 ______179*___0 _______ 134 __ 0 ______ 4

sunflower3 ________205 ___ 1 _____ 195 ____ 2 ______131^ __ 0 _______ 178 __ 0 ______ 3

DOCARCH _________209 ___ 1 _____ 185 ____ 1 ______175 ___ 0 _______ 188 __ 1 ______ 3

M.T. Cranium ______ 173 ___ 0 _____ 166 ____ 0 ______ 195 ___ 1 _______180 __ 1 ______ 2

Dasa29 ___________172 ___ 0 _____ 180 ____ 1 ______174 ___ 0 _______ 192 __ 1 ______ 2

john mac _________ 203 ___ 1 _____ 177 ____ 0 ______148 ___ 0 _______ 159 __ 0 ______ 1

__NormaL _______ 184 ___ 1 _____ 177 ____ 0 ______152 ___ 0 _______ 140 __ 0 ______ 1

Joe Public ________ 176 ___ 0 _____ 172 ____ 0 ______ 186 ___ 1 _______ 154 __ 0 ______ 1

200motels _______ 179 ___ 0 _____ (74) 1 m _0 ______ 121^___0 _______ 134^ _0 ______ 0

adam240610 _____ 145 ___ 0 _____ 178 ____ 0 ______ 176 ___ 0 _______ 176 __ 0 ______ 0

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^ score is for 2/3 months entered

*The alternate score in August would give Danno 203 total for summer and 5 points, all those 2-5 now would lose 1 (all those at 1 would retain the one point).