US Midterms 2022 - Read OP before posting

duploelabs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853638#Comment_119853638

Have you decided yet what crt is and where its taught?

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853591#Comment_119853591

I think that could be a mirage as well though. Nationally, Dems didn't ever pour much of their chancery into Florida - it has 2 GOP giants resident there, Trump and DeSantis. A strong showing there could just be home field advantage.

Additionally once Ron has to step away from his friendly state troopers and run a national campaign and talk to local media all around the country he's going to flounder, IMHO, given his performance for example when he was hit about the migrant flights. He's very good in Florida about curating a strong front, but it's predicated on moving his chess piece clear away from hard hitting journalists - Ron doesn't have the same mental compunction as Trump to be unabashed and unashamed when called on a clear enough source of bullshit.

In a GOP primary I'm much more happy to support Tim Scott for their POTUS nod while I could spend a long time opposing him on many issues, he's a civil and erudite politician that aside from being whipped into showing up to support Walker etc. doesn't really get into any of the hardcore foolery of the freedom caucus etc.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853660#Comment_119853660

Agreed - what has worked for DeSantis in Florida won't automatically transfer to the national level or to the key swing States.

There's still lots of time , but 2022 Ron DeSantis would not win a National election.

Ham_Sandwich

absoultly delighted, nazi party crushed and those idiots who think they had loads of supoport looking like fools

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853676#Comment_119853676

Nazi Party was bad enough.

But even when you jettison aside that nonsense, the Republicans were not "crushed" by any measure.

Utterly bizarre post.

Cody montana

“McCarthy may not have the votes for Speaker of the House.”

lawl

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853675#Comment_119853675

You have to human to run for the presidency.

Don't care what anyone says, no human can stand like that, quite clearly an android.

Faugheen

The way it is at the moment, GOP will have a House majority of 9.

In a midterm against a Democrat President, they may have only flipped 14 seats.

I never thought the GOP winning the House would be a funny event but yet here we are.

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852856#Comment_119852856

I'd say it's more likely there were election losers in play:

1. Spouting election conspiracies in advance, particulary raisng questiosn about whether aresults would be accepted
2. Making an enemy of women (The Supreme Courts owning of the libs backfired big time)
3. Republicans blocking attempts by Biden to improve issues those same republicans were criticising him for.

Looks like the electorate is starting tosee through the Republicans' BS. Took them long enough...

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853706#Comment_119853706

It's definitely a problem for him.even if they win a narrow majority

There are a number of House GOP loons that have said they won't vote for McCarthy in the House leadership vote and given the likely result he'll need every single GOP vote to win.

The bigger problem is what promises he might make to absolute nutters like MTG to get her to vote for him.

If he can't get them in line you could have the bizarre scenario where Pelosi wins the leadership vote even though the Democrats are the minority.

Muahahaha

I cant be the only one who has noticed that across the entire nation Hunter Biden didnt even secure a SINGLE vote. That'll teach those Do-Nothing Democrats!

Meanwhile, has anyone seen the Red Wave? Seems stuck in 2020, gee shucks

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853701#Comment_119853701

Eh yeah they were. Utterly crushed. A bloodbath (Trump Jr.), a Red Wedding (Ben Shapiro).

We were told to expect a massive red wave, huge red majorities in the house and senate, governorships across the board etc. because Joe was poorly approved of and the economy was 'wrecked' and people cared about inflation and crime!

Instead entire states flipped blue and, the 'red wave' so so absent that we still don't know who will hold the house or the senate this morning - even with the trend in increasing early and mail in voting that occured this year over any previous midterm, I have to say I can't ever recall not knowing at least who would control one or the other house by the next morning, and the fact that the Dems look to have basically held a 50-50 senate in a term where their approval numbers were all generally shyte - is actively amazing, as it's nearly impossible for a President to hold on to their Congress in a midterm, historically modern midterms favor the minority party becoming a stronger check and balance vs. a POTUS and any of their broken promises etc. (The only reason GWB 'won' his first midterm was 9/11)

And in some states exit polling showed crime trailed far behind issues like Abortion, which Republicans were clearly blindsided by: Republicans messaged to supporters that Roe was not on the ballot in November and yet, in some states it literally was, there were numerous props and amendments on state ballots about the codification of abortion rights. And young people with virile bodies showed up in absolute droves to have a word in (most of them pollsters would class as unlikely voters).

And all of the MAGA secretary of state races, may all have been lost.

The only thing bizarre is to suggest the red wave was not crushed.

Clearly the country is not interested in Hunter Benghazi Biden and a bunch of feckless attempts at impeachment or government shutdowns.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852849#Comment_119852849

Well yes, that's it in a nutshell. You'll usually find that polling companies don't make explicit predictions. It's the people who consume their data that do that instead.

FiveThirtyEight themselves are a consumer of that data but they are careful not to make discrete predictions. It's always a probability. That means that they are never "right" or "wrong" since every outcome can happen (unless they literally give a 0% or 100% which I have never seen for a contested race).

The problem is that most people think that a 80% chance is pretty much 100%. If the 20% event occurs they will say that the "prediction" was wrong.

Anyone who plays poker will have an innate sense of this. If you get all-in pre-flop with AA, you'll lose about 10-20% of the time versus another hand. That happens quite often but it's still unlikely enough that you're happy to get all your money in on it.

FivethirtyEight had the Democrats with a 31% chance of holding the Senate. The fact that that looks like it may now happen is nothing remarkable.

markodaly

The beginning of the end of Trumpism, but DeSantis looks to be the new golden boy of the GOP.

I cannot see Biden beating a youthful-looking, energetic DeSantis in 2024.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853767#Comment_119853767

Yep and 538 always projected Trump had odds to win in multiple forms of scenario (One of which played out: as soon as he won PA in 2016 that was a big Oh **** moment for people watching because, winning PA was critical for most of those potential outcomes, and, winning PA was crucial for most of Hillary's outcomes. Winning PA with a wave of unlikely voters was a seismic shift).

So, pollsters consume the responses, 538 consumes the polls, we consume the odds. And like I said in 2016: people totally writing off Trump are forgetting what probabilities are. Here, people totally wrote off the probability this would not at all be a red wave. It's one thing for a poll to say "70% of Americans think the country is out of control" and for another for an analyst to say ".... that means Dems will lose!" Poll questions generally lack critical nuance.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853701#Comment_119853701

Of course they were "crushed"

Given all the prevailing elements and the typical mid-term profile, the GOP should have been looking at a 50+ net seat pickup in the House and probably a 3-5 seat pickup in the Senate.

What we are seeing in reality is closer to a 6-8 net seat pickup in the House leaving them with a razor thin majority and at best all square in the Senate.

That is a catastrophe of epic proportions for the GOP and its leadership.

They got almost everything wrong in their approach to this Election - They focused on the wrong issues , they selected the wrong candidates and they failed utterly to have a single message to get behind.

Hoop66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853733#Comment_119853733

I think I read that he had already promised her a seat on Oversight cmtee.

Igotadose

Seems like Michigan, besides reelecting an excellent governor, and codifying abortion access in their constitution, voted in a Democratic majority into their state government, too. So, if it indeed remains a 'swing state' in 2024 it'll probably not have loonies doing election counts and calling for investigations into bamboo in paper.

Overheal

edit: nvm I'll leave it be.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853725#Comment_119853725

1. Agreed

2. Disagreed. There's no problem with the ruling per se. What the Republicans should have done is what a lot of folks did, and owned the idea that voters have the opportunity to directly vote on it at the State level. Even those who were against the idea of a national ban failed by not advocating some form of agency for the voters. By doing so, they would have eliminated much of the discussion at these congressional level elections. That said, it seems that something of that nature did happen in Kentucky.

3. Partially agreed. The details in each case matter.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853613#Comment_119853613

Almost as if voters might care about more than one specific incident when selecting a candidate. (And that's assuming the alternate is any better). O'Rourke has stepped up to the plate three times now and struck out three times in succession, twice for Statewide office. Maybe he's just not a great candidate? Again, I would observe that whatever you say about the 'review rating', Texas is the fastest growing state in terms of population and economy. That's a pretty good headstart for any competitor to attempt to catch up on. Gun control is... controversial in Texas. The economy less so.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853585#Comment_119853585

To be honest, I'll take it. Better than them dredging up some conspiracy theory about voting machines to explain why he lost.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853832#Comment_119853832

 Maybe he's just not a great candidate?

He seems like an affable person but I just don't know much about him this cycle other than he barged into Abbot's press conference. He's been playing second-fiddle to Abbot.

I'd love to hear your thoughts because Texas is not my politics not my problem and I don't have much insight into Beto.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853846#Comment_119853846

What's interesting is that despite all of Abbotts posturing about the border almost all of the border districts went for O'Rourke and elected Democrats.

I know at least one border district flipped red but the majority of them remain Democrat.

So the people closest to the alleged "invasion" don't seem worried enough about it to vote Republican.

Igotadose

2. Disagreed. There's no problem with the ruling per se. What the Republicans should have done is what a lot of folks did, and owned the idea that voters have the opportunity to directly vote on it at the State level. Even those who were against the idea of a national ban failed by not advocating some form of agency for the voters. By doing so, they would have eliminated much of the discussion at these congressional level elections. That said, it seems that something of that nature did happen in Kentucky.

@Manic Moran in keeping with this sub-thread, Abortion was absolutely an election winner for the Democratic party in this cycle. Fetterman owned it in Pennsylvania and Oz botched it. 3 states had 'modify the state constitution' to protect abortion, and it passed. 2 red states, Kentucky and Montana, had 'make it harder to get an abortion' on their ballots and Kentucky lost, and Montana hasn't been called yet but was losing. The ruling really doesn't matter anymore, its the effect that matters. The fact that these things happened so soon after Dobbs is very telling. I don't think the Democratic party is going to let up, the SCOTUS handed them red meat election fodder for the forseeable future.

The Dobbs thread had lengthy discussion of the ruling. I'm not going to dredge that up here, but 'no problem with the ruling' at a minimum remains to be seen when a new case comes before the SCOTUS.

Almost as if voters might care about more than one specific incident when selecting a candidate. (And that's assuming the alternate is any better). O'Rourke has stepped up to the plate three times now and struck out three times in succession, twice for Statewide office. Maybe he's just not a great candidate? Again, I would observe that whatever you say about the 'review rating', Texas is the fastest growing state in terms of population and economy. That's a pretty good headstart for any competitor to attempt to catch up on. Gun control is... controversial in Texas. The economy less so.

I agree, O'Rourke (and Stacey Abrams) have lost enough races. Sadly I think O'Rourke will want another go at Cruz in 2024, might be the best thing for Cruz. Though, I do believe the adage 'it's hard to beat an incumbent governor' is very true. Hochul in NY seemed beatable too, Zeldin had some pity votes and wasn't as awful as so many GQP candidates like the loony in Arizona.

But, as I think we've seen in this election, the economy isn't everything. Especially for young people. The impact of Student Loan Forgiveness might have made quite a difference in the voting, too.

And, Texas has a derelict power grid, massive income inequality and big-time problems with racism and violence. I still think the review rating is accurate. The 'rat out your neighbor' laws are still on the book, just not being enforced, among other things. And the governor is investing taxpayer dollars in human trafficking (like DeSanctimonious did.) Sad place, I've been there several times and had good visits plus the BBQ, Tex-Mex and the whisky on 5th st. in Austin are awesome.

Overheal

LMAO at Beau.

https://twitter.com/BeauTFC/status/1590378622686474240?s=20&t=jYvOPCu0mHo57bp-aDm6qw

https://twitter.com/BeauTFC/status/1590263925396090882?s=20&t=JdKt_tS6aVWcw9vRX9hKNg

https://twitter.com/BeauTFC/status/1590268200956329984?s=20&t=JdKt_tS6aVWcw9vRX9hKNg

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853865#Comment_119853865

That could be because those districts are most in conflict with ICE.

I get anxious just watching Americans have to go through the whole 'am I being detained' 'am I free to go' etc. ritual on youtube, I'd hate to have to live it day in day out like they do down in the US desert.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853865#Comment_119853865

Those are also the districts which have walls on the border so they have a different on-the-ground view of the problem... (And it's 3 of 5, so hardly a massive overwhelm) It's also worth noting that even those districts have issues: The city of El Paso (Beto's home district) has shipped twice as many migrants to the North East than Abbott has, it's a problem they are dealing with as well. The difference is in the details (Mainly that the El Paso migrants have arrangements made in advance for reception)

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/18/beto-orourke-immigration-border-policy/

Only 31% of Texas voters approved of Biden’s handling of the border in a mid-February poll from the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler. Fifty-six percent disapproved. Meanwhile, 50% of voters approved of Abbott’s performance on the border and 40% disapproved.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853846#Comment_119853846

That's probably a pretty good way of putting it. I have seen very little of him during this election cycle, last time he was in my town (Only 2mn people... but on the blue side of purple so not really swing) was two months ago for an engagement with a civil rights leader. Outside of that, the only time he's really come on my radar was for that semi-viral incident with a heckler a couple months ago, which played well to the gun-control crowd, but equally motivated the pro-gun crowd as the reason for the heckle was Beto's completely inaccurate statement about the firearm which might have gone un-noticed had it not been rebroadcast so much. He attempted to make some meat out of the power failure last year, sniped at Abbott about the details of Texas' border operation (without actually advocating against it, see that tight-rope mentioned above), and was particularly passionate about guns. I don't recall him saying how he was going to improve the economy/quality of life, though but, given Texas' is pretty good, that may have been playing to Abbott's strength.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/08/beto-orourke-texas/

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119853832#Comment_119853832

Agreed with you on 2 also, but perceptions count.

Overheal

Disappointed to see this call (Johnson is a real horses ass) but Mandela did not run a campaign at the level the GOP did.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/ron-johnson-defeats-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-senate-race-nbc-news-proj-rcna54938

I've been percolating on this while watching the results come in and the reactions and the expectations of people and basing that on my own personal experience of media and social media digest: the candidates who are unseating incumbents, are the ones who are campaigning messages that reach out far beyond the actual borders of whatever district, state or constituency they are running for. Johnson and the Incumbent GOP 'flooded the zone with ****' on just about everything, from woke agendas to broke agendas, and Johnson has incumbent clout as a guy who goes on Fox News all the damn time, talk shows etc. getting people to, on the second hand information market, get upset and engage with the **** he says.

This is also true of Greg Abbot. He (and DeSantis) used their incumbency to become new drivers for the GOP political game by bussing and planing migrants around the country (we don't have time or space to unpack that here). What they did drove massive, even global media attention to their shenanigans, and their base LOVED being the center of the world even if it was to gape at Abbot and DeSantis' raw arsehole. Beto O'Rourke's most widespread piece of news this cycle was gatecrashing an Abbot conference to shame him for his Uvalde massacre response. And that gatecrash was months ago. Beto was not pushing through to the national headlines or doing much to trend on secondary or ancillary social media (like Boards).

In America now the world is small thanks to broadband, (thanks Obama) and most families have group chats even if they live all over the country. My immediate family live in South Carolina, Florida, and Massachusetts. My close family is broader than that, and my circle of close confidants and friends is broader than that.

If you were trying to get me to vote for Joe Cunningham as an unlikely voter in South Carolina, against Henry McMaster (I don't have time to unpack that Foghorn right now, or his bullshit, but he won again last night), you'd have had to have run a campaign that got the attention of my friends or family in these other places in the world, to really grab both my attention and my motivation. That's what modern politics is, it's not necessarily ad buys or more yard signs or bigger boats with more flags and rallies where the same megafans show up 50+ times (not a joke, some Trump rally megafans), it's engagement. And the people who are losing, IMHO, lacked engagement. Fetterman, for example, trolled the **** out of Oz, and utterly pantsed him not just in Pennsylvania but effectively brought him down from his vaunted reputation on the national stage, too! Fetterman made you want to retweet him and defend him down in the comments.

The scale of Ron DeSantis victory over Christ in Florida is staggering, even winning the hard-blue Miami-Dade county by double-digits.

I think as DeSantis progresses from here, that - at the national level - he may be able to translate that kind of victory across the US. It depends what platform he runs on, of course, but this victory will no doubt prove encouraging. Current polling already suggests that DeSantis would win against Joe Biden in 2024, and that's when DeSantis hasn't even campaigned for a day.

And all without the baggage of Trump; indeed, some say of DeSantis that he is Trump with a brain.

So whilst Democrats are gleeful about today's results, the outcome of these midterm elections may end up a pyrrhic victory as we head toward 2024.

https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1590155233942212609