Very windy and potentially stormy Weds 2-11-22

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820737#Comment_119820737

That should have absolutely nothing to do with it.

Either a warning hits the thresholds for wind/precip/temp, or it doesn't.

kowloonkev

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821391#Comment_119821391

Well it can't really be predicted with total accuracy and storms will have so many variables that each will be judged on their own merits, with a degree of human intuition necessary. The warnings should take the risk into account and certainly closed schools reduce risk for more vulnerable people. It should at least be a consideration if the storm is on the border of orange and red warnings.

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821534#Comment_119821534

No, they shouldn't take any of that into consideration because MÉ are still using the patently outdated numerical system they pulled out of their holes years ago.

You're describing the UKMO type of impact matrix based system we should have adopted instead.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821342#Comment_119821342

It looked very sinister didn't it? Joanne didn't mention it, so maybe it's not heading our way. Looking at the models on Windy.com it seems to remain almost stationery between Greenland and Iceland for a few days (but I'm no expert.)

spookwoman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821219#Comment_119821219

Just emptied the waterbutt beside the greenhouse and put it out of the way, that's one thing I don't want getting blown over.

Our main Birch tree out front and in direct way of southerlies still pretty much got most of it's leaves. We have a willow that needs to be taken down due to boring beetles will be one to watch. Really don't want to park out on the road because we have some muppets who don't know how long the front of their car is when turning. Doesn't help when one of those that turns outside had not bloody insurance.

Meteorite58

ICON 18Z no climb down and UKMO now looking stronger, will see what ARPEGE looks like, rolling out atm. I think Met Eireann have upped the tone a bit too..... ARPEGE preliminary looking like ICON especially the stronger winds sweeping into the West in the afternoon...will put up the chart when it is finished it's run.

TOMORROW - Wednesday 2nd November

Very windy or stormy on Wednesday. During the morning, a band of heavy squally rain will sweep eastwards across the country with spot flooding. Southerly winds will be very strong and gusty especially near west and south coasts with possible severe and damaging gusts. Rain will clear eastern counties in the early afternoon with sunny spells and heavy or thundery showers of rain or hail following. Winds will become westerly with further severe and damaging gusts, especially in western parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highest temperatures of 10 to 14 degrees.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes they have indeed upped the tone, probably change of forecaster for the night shift!

Orange for coastal counties would have been the correct call imo and may well be issued before tomorrow morning!

Oscar Bravo

11pm TAFs max gusts

Cork 55 Knots between 9am - 11am

Shannon 45 Knots between 10am and Midday with a chance of gusts up to 55 knots up to 4pm

Knock 47 knots between 8am -10am

Dublin up to 40 knots between 5pm -7pm (chance of a small bit higher throughout the afternoon)

coillsaille

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821391#Comment_119821391

I agree - it shouldn't. But past experience with ME warnings indicate that it does sometimes.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 18Z much stronger along the SW,W, NW, N on this run and it has that stripe of strong winds forming from from Galway /Limerick towards parts of Roscommon into Longford and parts of Offaly which could all expect winds gusting around 100km/h if both ARPEGE and ICON are correct ?? ICON brings those higher gusts all the way across the country to the East in the early evening.

American models not developing the later batch of strong winds coming in from the West in the afternoon.

Oscar Bravo

Mace head a good one to keep an eye on tomorrow on the Met Reports

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821107#Comment_119821107

Agreed. The ash dieback has caused havoc this summer. A lot of big branches will come down at the very least.

Meteorite58

Just to highlight that AROME is showing some very strong gusting winds across the country in the 18Z. It is predicting very heavy convective type squally showers giving huge downdrafts I reckon, would not take the current positioning of the stripes of wind as gospel but only an indication of potentially very strong gusts accompanied by very heavy rain in places. The charts below show the potential for heavy squally rain and showers.

Increasingly under a cold upper airmass tomorrow aiding instability for convection and some thunderstorms and hail a possibility also.

Graces7

It be .... drafty.... out here. Loud aready. I was not able yesterday to bring coal in from the drive so will try at first light..

Theorists and pragmatists! All part of the weather scenario. We need to know to stay safe.

It feels much colder. So we snuggle and hunker down and keep vigil... This kind of weather is why I have the bottled gas cooker... I was well trained in far coastal Cornwall. A modern bungalow with NO FIREPLACE. When the attic got trashed our local plumber/electrician rigged up one cable to a socket and insurance paid for an industrial drier ....

Deeply grateful to the experts here as always. Forwarned etc. THANK YOU!

West Mayo offshore

Graces7

I just heard a distant rumble of thunder. That was unexpected but yep in the forecast. ( Just after 4 am)

And a very loud increase in deluge.

Today is going to be an experience.

Stay safe.

West Mayo offshore

JanuarySnowstor

Wind really picking up here already!

I think Met Eireann will be caught out slightly on this one. The latest gfs has upped the ante, no doubt now orange category for quite a swathe of the country

Lashing rain and strong winds, Cork city.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821997#Comment_119821997

As I was told when I was very new here there are two aspects re weather. The weather and the effects of the weather. Both matter. We do not exist in a vacuum and need to know.

M.T. Cranium

Some thunderstorms likely embedded in the frontal systems, would expect any damaging wind gusts to be near those at first, but in Connacht watch out for a second wave of strong winds to follow late afternoon as the low develops a trailing trough with a strong gradient. Very fast accumulations of 20-30 mm depicted in some guidance for both Connacht and parts of central Munster. As several have commented, waterlogged ground, gales, any leaves left on deciduous trees, will all contribute to hazards of falling trees and not always pushed over by strongest gusts, some may be ready to go at any time.

Cork Lass

Seriously strong winds here in Cork, no way is this a yellow - definitely should be an orange warning. Wouldn't want to be out driving in this.

fits

Just picking up in last 30 minutes in south Carlow. Have a scheduled power outage today but I doubt they’ll be doing the work with this weather ! I hope not as I have the twins home with mid term and few options in this weather

DOCARCH

Gusting 52 kts (knocking on the door of 100 kmh) at Roches Point at 0700.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821391#Comment_119821391

The problem now though is that as soon as a storm gets named the country goes into meltdown. I'm pretty sure loads of schools started closing because of orange alerts in recent, ahem, "storms"

Social media gets flooded with loads of fancy graphs and models which look a lot more sinister than they are and people start thinking it's similar to a hurricane that hits Florida.

We also have the absurd situation of schools closing in places like killaloe and Ballina because it's going to be moderately windy 60 miles away in Clifden and Kilkee, places where there are very few trees anyway and people are used to the wind.

Even on these forums we end up with people saying how they are in a red zone but the wind didn't even manage to blow up the lid of the wheelie bin.

DOCARCH

Wind starting to get going in Greystones now.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119822387#Comment_119822387

Very heavy rain now in west Clare, winds still light though.

Storm 10

Wendy and very wet in Galway nothing extreme yet could see lightning flashes to the West around 4am

Graces7

Nice thunder just to add to the bruit!

West Mayo..

And the lights keep flickering... Ouch,, The power is going to go...

Graces7

It passed over... So intense it was.

pad199207

Gust of 104kmh at Sherkin

SleetAndSnow

Gust 104 Sherkin, 101 Roches Point. Gusts steadily increasing in strength here in Cork City