FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

esposito

Ireland where are you?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144668#Comment_120144668

Ireland buried deep and lost in a winter full of Atlantic muck.

nacho libre

It will be unsettled but maybe cold at times after systems pass through. Good enough maybe for wet snow in places.

JanuarySnowstor

At least some weather will be happening. If it can't be cold cheer us up with a few violent storms!!!

Only joking of course 😉

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144668#Comment_120144668

I think that would be the worst storm since darwin or the night of the big wind, that's if it where to verify

WolfeEire

The models are as dull as you could get in winter 120hrs+. That high pressure system to our south shuts off any opportunity for Ireland to tap into colder air to our north, west and east, leaving us in a predominantly milder airmass. Only the JMA hints at anything colder with the high regressing south for a time. JMA is definitely the best model ..

Gonzo

Grim stuff indeed for cold and snow lovers. Just taking a look at this mornings models and it doesn't get much worse than this. MILD followed by very MILD, potentially warm for the time of the year with temperatures up to 15C entirely possible. Long Fetch south-westerlies with plenty of mist of drizzle over the next few weeks. In this sort of setup some eastern areas if there were spells of sunshine and a Fohn affect temperatures of 16C wouldn't be out of question. The cold zonality signal that we had up to a few days ago seems to be completely off the table at this stage.

We stay largely dry in terms of heavy rainfall untill the end of 1st week of February but plenty of misty Atlantic air will keep the ground generally damp over the next few weeks. Temperatures lifting up and taking off as we progress into the 1st week of February with a long push of very mild south-westerlies.

We finish up on February 10th with a blowtorch still going over us.

I think this is a very good time for another model watch break.

ECM maybe not quite as mild as the GFS but still flat as a pancake and about as exciting as watching paint dry.

Sums up the majority of Winter 2022/2023 with the exception of the cold spell in December.

However in the past week FI has flipped from mild and stormy to cool and slightly wintry and now exceptionally mild. It is entirely possible this could flip again to something else within the next week so none of these exceptionally mild charts in the first half of February are guaranteed to happen.

mcburns07

10-16 days away though Gonzo. It’ll all change again.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120155109#Comment_120155109

Hopefully will change for the better before we are done with winter. The models have been flipping from one thing to another over the past 10 days. The NAO and AO are set to go fairly positive over the next 2 weeks so not a good sign for northern blocking, we will see what happens over the next 2 weeks to see what the final 2 weeks of February may bring.

LaoisWeather

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154822#Comment_120154822

However in the past week FI has flipped from mild and stormy to cool and slightly wintry and now exceptionally mild. It is entirely possible this could flip again to something else within the next week so none of these exceptionally mild charts in the first half of February are guaranteed to happen.

Yeah, the models seem to be on to a pattern for a few days, then change to another pattern only to hold that for a few further days, and then bang, change to yet another pattern. Consistently inconsistent is the best way of summing up the last week of model outputs.

nacho libre

The latest GFS has some very cold air making its way across the Atlantic from the north west around the 7th of February . Of course it is more than likely the GFS over egging it. But let's for fun assume that it was correct, there would be heavy snow showers widely across Ireland due to the instability

US3

Would love to see a repeat of February 2019, I think it got up to about 17° at one stage .

sryanbruen

Think we get the uselessness of the GFS by now after its “upgrade” but the 12z takes the biscuit with a Scandi High and easterly on 6th February 😭😂

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120156966#Comment_120156966

It has started on the Spirits early- it's usually the pub run that churns out the fantasy charts! The 510 dam thickness off the west coast in a previous run was more plausible than this! I think Lloyd Christmas has more of a chance with Mary Swanson than this coming to pass!

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157117#Comment_120157117

As expected it is a massive outlier, textbook outlier. In the bin it goes.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157117#Comment_120157117

Spirits??? I’m thinking more in terms of crack cocaine…..

Dieter Langer

1998 again.

The birds who sing in winter will cry in Spring.

Gonzo

the pub run should be very sobering like the 00z and 6z. That 12z looks lovely but I've more of a chance of winning the Euromillions even tho I don't buy any lottery tickets.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120158484#Comment_120158484

Lol! If you're not in, you can't win 😉😂

nacho libre

Well, well, what is the ECM up to by day 10. If this run went further it's possible it would end up similar to the previous GFS run. We see the high attempting to go north. What looked like a forgone conclusion for a period of zonality is less certain now. Let's see if this idea of the high attempting to build northwards is built on.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120159251#Comment_120159251

The ECM are flirting with the notion of heights building north with heights also building from north of Scandi. The Euro high would want to be much further west of course but it's worth keeping an eye on. The mean pressure ens for the ECM is however, heading a different direction to the op run.

It looks like the AO and NAO plateau or dip slightly in positive territory around the middle of the first week of February. If there is any kick left in this winter, then it is likely we will be waiting until mid February (week 3) for same. Can't see any significantly cold weather occuring before then at this stage. I am happy about the drier weather though. Was getting close to putting dehumidifiers in my garden!

WolfeEire

GFS op on the afternoon sherry again

almostthere12

Just waiting for the last few frames to load as round 2 is incoming and looks better than round 1...........I'm having whatever the GFS is on!!

Gonzo

That GFS is chilly but even if it was to verify (which it won't) we are still left high and dry as pressure is too high over us but plenty of snow south of us over the continent. The high pressure would need to nudge about 300-500km further north then we would be in business. This run is most likely an extreme outlier just like yesterdays 12z.

nacho libre

The high is looking to head North West around the 10th to 11th, if it gets into Greenland fully then we have the golden ticket. It might be an outlier, but I would wait to see what the ECM comes up with before dismissing it completely.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161661#Comment_120161661

Just very hard to believe anything the GFS prints out anymore, the GFS up to the recent update was very good imo but since the update it's becoming increasingly difficult to take it seriously anymore.

Just thinking of the crazy and very wonky looking GFS charts as we head into the summer.

nacho libre

It would not take much for this to become very good further on. At the very least we maybe extending the dry spell. Those hoping for storms maybe disappointed, though .

Gonzo

If we can't get snow then continue with the dry, if it turns into delivering something special by the 2nd or 3rd week of February then all the better.

Just no more conveyer belt Atlantic onslaught, seen enough rain in the past 4 months to last me a few years.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161661#Comment_120161661

GFS 18z at it again. 🤔

The 12z was an outlier. Will see if any members follow this one.

esposito

Heights pushing nicely into Greenland by 384hrs on the 06z GFS. I know I know but nice to look at.

nacho libre

We have to hope this is a case of the ops leading the ensembles. It's not usually the case, though. What I will say about the GFS is it does sometimes latch on to a change, then drop it, only to come back to it in future runs.

mcburns07

The lack of posts on here says it all really. A very bland winter devoid of interesting weather.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120172331#Comment_120172331

Bring it on, I can start doing varied outside things soon. If this continues for another few weeks, I may even get started on some basic gardening chores. It's a bit breezy today though. I adore calm conditions. Not great for wind driven electricity but it's not too often that it's calm at the off shore wind farms.

Derekon2021

OK I'll say what everyone is thinking.....with the next 10 days looking dry and largely mild (thank God), at the end of that period, we'll be into mid February........I think winter is largely over.......brighter days and a stronger sun on the way!

D

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173117#Comment_120173117

February is a great month for shhleettt and accumulations on high ground.

So yeah winter is done, lawnmowers is the next sound we will be hearing.

nacho libre

I do appreciate the drying out period, but after a while it feels like a waste of seasons for me. Let Spring be mild and pleasant and winter be cold and snowy, or cold and very frosty. It used to be that February was our best month for snow chances. I see some GFS runs are still toying with the idea of a Scandi high but of course on the latest one it's positioned in such a way that the cold probably won't push this way.

Hooter23

We get brighter days and stronger sun but its makes little difference winter is never over in this country...you wouldn't even notice the difference in seasons only for the longer days thats about it...the stronger sun makes no difference either you still be freezing down the beach even in the middle of summer most of the time...must be only country in the world were you would still need big jacket on in the middle of the summer...its sounds like a joke but its not its reality

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120172331#Comment_120172331

The dry weather is great but have to admit this is another dead duck of a winter that never delivered and time to put the winter out of it's misery and move onto Spring. We will probably see some snow in early Spring after a failed winter, always the way.

There is still a remote chance the final 10 days of February could deliver something but looking at all the current modeling I wouldn't be banking on magic to happen.

esposito

As Nacho said February used to be our best bet for proper cold and snow. Not anymore sadly. Last good February was 2018 and before that 2009 I think? Not good. As a result my expectations for this February to deliver are very very low.

.Donegal.

Playing devils advocate here but February hasn’t even happened yet even though the first week of it looks useless let’s not write it off completely yet.

Rebelbrowser

Just to keep interest even faintly alive, thought it would be fun to post the best chart I could find. The below chart (Perturbation 16 from the 6z GFS) for 12 February would do me nicely!

.Donegal.

..

mcburns07

Oh go on then !

screamer

I won’t give up hope till March is over, we often get a snow day here in March, it’s a way too early to give up yet.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173333#Comment_120173333

You're right. All those days last summer when it was close to 30º felt freezing.

And those summer nights when it stays mild until 9pm or 10pm feel the exact same as a winter's night...

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120179931#Comment_120179931

People have short memories 😂 as much as we complain, our summers really aren’t that bad.

nacho libre

If a Scandi high does come to pass it will be some achievement by the GFS. It will have been proven right despite zero ensembles support at the very beginning last week. It will also show that despite an ominous looking polar vortex and a positive nao that blocking to the North East is possible. We may still end up being too far west to get the cold air here. England will have a better chance, but could miss out too on the coldest air if the high does not orientate correctly to allow the really cold air move westwards off the continent.

PokeHerKing

What could go wrong

Rebelbrowser

Cold goes south of us on the GFS 6z but still a push from the east, as there is on the 0z ECM (but neither yielding anything like what we want). At least this looks different to this time yesterday and there are at least some crumbs for us to feast upon...

Gonzo

It's going to be rough seeing winter wonderland scenes from Athens next week, it looks like they may get 2 proper beasts one after another with more than a weeks worth of daily snowfalls.

We can only dream of the above and stay dreaming. None of the sloppy North Atlantic mixing rubbish that we get, all dry powder.