FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Niall145

GFS 6z basically unleashes the Arctic from 4 March onwards; countrywide snow

In ridiculously deep FI, the CFS is going for a chilly St Patrick's Day for now.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120274293#Comment_120274293

😂 don't need to state the obvious of the likelihood of this happening!

kittyn

We can but dream 🙈🤣🤣

nacho libre

Whatever about the depth of cold or if it goes on to be a west based nao, I see this going on for a while-maybe not a month or more of below average all the time, but certainly below average at times well into April due to downwelling waves from the strat. A bit like March 2013 in that regard. I just hope we can get something like Northern Ireland had back in late March 2013, but this time nationwide and preferably before mid March. I don't ask for much. Ha

Ragwort and Stones

The month of March seems to be heading for extremes in '3' ending years this century.

2003. After around 8 March gradually warming. Plenty of 15c days, indeed some 15-18c. Generally calm and very pleasant. This pattern followed into April with 20c exceeded around Good Friday, it was around 20th April. Easter Sunday big drop in temperature and cool/cold until end of month.

2013. Pleasant first 8 days or so. Turned cooler Sunday 10th March. Monday 11th saw snow showers. Upper air temps were amazing Round -15c in parts of the east iirc. The month remained very cold. That NI snowfall around 22nd. Snow fell, light falls, in the Midlands on the final week. April 1st, I remember the daytime temp maxes were 3-7c. 7c in the very south. First 10 days were cold. A gradual warming after.

2023 looks like a repeat of 2013 imo.

Ragwort and Stones

Waterford had a lovely snowfall on the night 11 March 2013. I remember watching the rte news at 1pm the following day.

Dazler97

So we know the cold is coming but unsure to what extent etc hopefully we get 2 weeks of below 0c at night and some snowfall, as we all know March can be a cold month but days are equal to nights in terms of lenth, days will be starting to get warmer

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275695#Comment_120275695

The best scenario would be if we get snow on the ground is a lot of cloudy weather to keep the snow intact, but even then there would be some melt. I just hope some year in the future, before I pop my clogs, we can get a SSW in late December so we have the chance of a significant cold spell in the heart of winter.

Ragwort and Stones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275695#Comment_120275695

Your sun angle at the Spring Solstice is 37%, when you think 14% on 21 December. Power in the sun.

AnFearCeart

Unreal!

Niall145

ECM looking good too, snow and direct northerlies by 4 March

sryanbruen

Before we get too comfortable with seeing these runs, I would expect further volatility in output for the next week especially the coming weekend when the next spike in warming occurs. Otherwise everything described in previous posts from myself and some others applies the exact same here.

KanyeSouthEast

The best scenario for me is no cold weather particularly in late March and April. Our summers are short enough without our spring being biting cold like in 2013. Would love to see 20 degrees and sun on Patrick’s day.

nacho libre

Yes, right to be cautious we could just as easily end up with a west based NAO and zonal by default. I would dearly love that ECM to come off, we could be in Polar Low terrority if it did. It will not be a shock of if it is an outlier, though

nacho libre

The Vortex that was over Greenland has transferred east then decided to pay Northern Europe a visit on the control. The op looks poised at day 10 to deliver something like this if it went on a day or two. Let's see can we count this down.

pauldry

For sure we are at the start of a cold spell now. Temperatures are rarely going to be above 10c (Maybe today). It will be dry and cold for the next week with single figures by day and below zero at night. Hopefully this can pave the way for some proper cold in March.

Be cautious though. There are odd outliers in the models that bring in milder Southerlies and push the cold East but that time around March 6th looks particularly cold on most model output.

It's only 2 weeks away now. What could go wrong? Read on one of the rags that it could be minus 10 in March. Just read it not saying I believe it.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282581#Comment_120282581

Why is this thread so quiet given the potential of what's coming up?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282623#Comment_120282623

The thread is quiet because many don't seek cold and snow in March, winter is more or less over now and time has run out in terms of proper winter cold. As for the chance of a decent cold and snowy spell in March we've already missed the boat for the first week of March and now we're looking at the second week which is still 2 weeks away. There is a reasonable chance that the real cold may not reach us with many of the model runs pushing warm air over us instead just as the proper cold is entering our airspace and sweeps the cold back north-east very quickly. There is no cross model agreement for cold yet, any operational run which looks exciting from a cold and snowy perspective is generally still a complete cold outlier. No point getting excited until we are much closer to the time frame and we have cross model agreement for something snowy to happen over a large part of the country. We are probably still a week away from seeing this scenario in the models if we get to that stage at all. If the real cold gets pushed from week 2 to week 3 then interest will be lost further as mid March is generally the cut off point for lying snow outside of rare exceptions.

This thread is also expiring because winter is over in terms of FI charts and we are all posting about Spring charts at this point, so the Spring thread will be created very soon and this thread closing within a few days.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282623#Comment_120282623

Gonzo is correct. I'd still be excited, March or otherwise - but the real issue for me is the lack of any model consistency. The GFS had about 3 days of consistency for an epic northerly from ca. 3/4 March. That disappeared around the time the ECM started to back that idea for about 2 days (albeit for ca. 5/6 March). Today the idea of any cold before about 8 March (and no great clarity for 8 March onwards) is gone. Throw in Sryanbruen's injunctions regarding the accuracy of the charts at all right now given strat issues and its hard to post anything with any credibility at the moment.

Ragwort and Stones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282581#Comment_120282581

-17c in 1947 is the record! Snowfields etc. But still impressive for 2nd or 3rd of March.

pauldry

It's fair to say that figure is safe for another year (perhaps lifetime).

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282934#Comment_120282934

It's true cold has been pushed back and downgraded on op runs, but look at the mean and control runs, the ec46 and the NOAA charts they have been consistently showing a high toward Greenland by around the 7th of March onwards. Until these change I am optimistic of a cold outbreak. Its just a question of how cold- at this time of year we all know what brings snow in the winter months could lead to cold rain now. Anyone expecting a beast from the east scenario is going to be disappointed. That was a rare as hens teeth situation, which followed a classic textbook split, hence the relatively smooth countdown to the severe cold outbreak.

In such a complex situation with the mjo in phase 6 and 7, and the rare occurrence of two or three warmings in close proximity, you are going to have wild swings in op runs. So putting too much stock in op runs is flawed until the final warming in the series has occurred. If by Mid week onwards , we see no signs of a colder outbreak into week two of March, then I would be inclined to agree this SSW is probably a bust for us. As there should be a quicker tropospheric response to this last warming

By the way what we are seeing presently in the attempted Greenland high is probably in response to the mjo, not the ssw.

Storm 10

Looking at the forecast after the news tonight it showed low after low coming up from the Atlantic but all are blocked by the high pressure.

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276604#Comment_120276604

Anecdotally it feels that poor springs proceed hot summers. Certainly was the case in 2013, and 1995

sryanbruen

That clears things up then 😂

Gonzo

Bye bye winter 2022/2023, a winter we won't be telling the grandkids about any time soon.

I have opened the Spring 2023 FI thread as it's time to stick a fork in this winter.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058285874/fi-charts-t120-onwards-spring-2023-read-mod-note-in-first-post#latest