December 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

appledrop

Thankfully I'll get some points now with that Max of 15, as I'm way off with IMT & Min this month.

M.T. Cranium

Agree with JPmarn that average 21st to 31st will likely be close to 5.5 C, near normal .. IMT was 2.5 after mild 19th, and probably 2.7 after 20th. An average of 5.5 would give an outcome of 114.5/31 which is 3.7 C. If we get into milder air than the models are showing, that could drift up to around 4 or a bit higher. I would imagine we've seen both MAX and MIN. The PRC rather low so far, may come in lower than most forecasts. SUN was generous but may now become a bit less so, likely to finish around 120% as per model guidance. Third week update to follow on Thursday.

Appledrop, the contest format protects you from a low score this month, I think your second lowest score going in was well into the 50s so you are guaranteed to add that to your best 9/11 total from last month, if Dec scores lower.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT has recovered to 2.9, the third week average of 4.3 was 1.2 below normal.

MAX 15.0, MIN -8.8

PRC has risen slightly to 46% of normal with the third week 74%.

SUN managed to add a bit, now at 177%, with the third week a shade under 200% (1197/600).

M.T. Cranium

So far I am seeing 10.9 as the max for Dublin. Will confirm that tomorrow. Anything rounding to 11 would leave WolfeEire, MTC and Tae laidir closest to that part of the bonus (5/5). The min overnight was listed as 6.5 but it has just fallen to 5 C and may fall a bit further now. No forecasts were quite as high as the 6.5 but several have now been passed on the way down this evening. Remains to be seen which forecasts might do best with the eventual min. ... as to the white Christmas, evidence for snow on higher terrain in north, but I think we need a credible report of snow at a regular reporting site, which may still happen. I will ask for opinions on this if I can't find conclusive evidence.

The IMT has edged up to 3.2 after 24 days and likely sits around 3.4 after today. PRC has also risen somewhat, I estimate it now sits around 60% with a guaranteed 50% for end of month plus whatever falls today to 31st, which could be enough to get PRC back into the main range of forecasts.

Back tomorrow, it is snowing lightly here but milder than it has been for weeks at -2 C and edging up towards a brief minor thaw apparently. Snow or not, the scene is very wintry here with a base of 50 cm and all the evergreen trees coated with snow as we have had very little wind during all the cold weather. This year a lot of the deciduous trees never lost most of their leaves, they changed colour and then hung on while slowly shrivelling up so many of those trees have an odd appearance of small dead brown leaves with flecks of snow here and there. Don't recall this ever happening before, usually all the leaves are down before snow starts to accumulate. Will be interesting to see how they recover in the spring.

sryanbruen

Casement was reporting light snow on the 2100 obs, could have been more sleet but there has been reports of wet flakes.

Tae laidir

Minimum dropped to 1.7.

M.T. Cranium

So with the results 10.9, 1.7 and yes (weak but evidence supplied), I decided that all locations mentioned would be okay since the radar showed similar if not equal returns to Casement for the other locations, and there were similar temperatures. (it's only a matter of one point for a group generally not in contention other than sryanbruen who had Casement anyway, so the contest implications are trivial).

Looks like Adam240610 has the highest total score for the temperatures in the Christmas bonus.

The scoring for temperature will be based on five points for max and also five for min. With the number of entrants we had, five people will be in each group except for a few tied over-runs, so here's the breakdown of scoring, holding on to the format of the forecast table and showing what is probably a somewhat approximate scoring estimate for other elements based on the values shown:

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__25th Dub (A)_snow ____ TOTAL

__ Estimated values ___ 4.0_15.0_-8.8_080_130__10.9_ 1.7_ Yes (any) _DEC _ (see note)*

M.T. Cranium _________ 05 _ 12 _ 00 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 ______ 29 (45, 612)

Tae laidir ____________ 07 _ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 5 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 43 (52, 680)

john mac ____________ 07 _ 09 _ 00 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 3 ______ 36 (46, 590)

MrSkinner ___________ 08 _ 14 _ 00 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 46 (52, 637)

waterways ___________09 _ 17 _ 00 _ 11 _ 03 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 48 ( ---,622)

__ NormaL __________ 11 _ 15 _ 00 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 47 ( ---,558)

Pauldry _____________ 11 _ 00 _ 00 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 38 (49, 641)

Dacogawa ___________ 12 _ 18 _ 19 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 61 ( ---,670)

DOCARCH ___________ 14 _ 19 _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 3 ______ 61 ( ---,648)

Mr stonewall _________ 14 _ 19 _ 06 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 63 ( ---,679)

Kindred Spirit ________ 14 _ 10 _ 00 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 54 ( ---,646)

Sunflower3 __________ 15 _ 19 _ 00 _ 15 _ 05 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 63 ( ---,658)

Appledrop ___________ 15 _ 15 _ 00 _ 05 _ 03 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 47 (57, 704)

Dasa29 _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _ 04 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 26 (50, 621)

___ Con Sensus ______ 15 _ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 52 (61, 689)

Gonzo ______________ 16 _ 12 _ 10 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 5 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 59 ( ---,668)

Artane2002 __________17 _ 17 _ 04 _ 13 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 59 ( ---,671)

Bsal ________________17 _ 01 _ 00 _ 06 _ 05 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 36 (59, 673)

esposito ____________ 19 _ 00 _ 18 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 59

SleetAndSnow ________22 _ 16 _ 00 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 3 ______ 68

Jpmarn _____________ 23 _ 05 _ 07 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 58 ( ---,651)

200motels __________ 23 _ 06 _ 03 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 62 ( ---,497) (8/12)

sryanbruen __________ 21 _ 12 _ 17 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 81 ( ---,687)

adam240610 _________20 _ 18 _ 20 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 5 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 81 ( ---,620)

Joe Public ___________ 18 _ 03 _ 15 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 65 ( ---,597)

Bazlers _____________ 14 _ 01 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 41

Danno ______________ 12 _ 00 _ 00 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 31 ( ---,570)

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-5) ___00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _15-5 =10

WolfEire ___ (-5) ______18_ 13 _ 19 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 _71-5 =66

===================================

The element most in doubt above would be PRC, as several heavy rainfalls lie ahead and we are already at a guaranteed outcome of 60% after some locations picked up considerable amounts yesterday. The SUN amount assumes mostly cloudy skies now to end. I will re-calibrate this preliminary scoring table whenever circumstances change any elements, but quite a few of these scores are low enough that you could assume you will be using a different month for your 10th of 12 scores (whatever score in the last annual scoring table was then second lowest).

Also there will probably be a few points available for the less awful half of the zero MIN scores, but with a reduced boost due to several high raw scores.

* Just to save you some bother, I went back and looked at the annual scoring in the NOV thread and all numbers above in brackets after totals are "guaranteed" scores both in terms of the next value to be added and the annual scoring total that creates. If there's no reason to bump the DEC score shown here, the first of those two numbers is replaced with --- ). These contest scoring details are not shown for the few December entrants who have only a few entries.

Of course in the secondary total point contest, you add December to the previous total. This brings sryanbruen up to second place (from sixth after NOV) with 781 total points, while Appledrop retained first (by these estimates) at 806.

Most of the best 10/12 scores remain in a similar order because the top half of the field almost exclusively turned to another month to add their final score, and the range of those additions is fairly small (mostly in the 50s). Sryanbruen would move up from 8th to 2nd in that contest also.

Once again, I underscore the fact that these are early scoring estimates and they can change. Watch for updates.

M.T. Cranium

One change is already fairly apparent, SUN has been managing a fairly good showing even this past week and it is now almost guaranteed to finis 150% or a bit higher. It has only fallen from 177% to 160% since 21st. So here's the same scoring table with two changes made, SUN and the addition of small increments to MIN scores as I am confident we won't be seeing anything lower than -8.8. SUN scores are slightly adjusted for minimum progression as there were numerous zero scores, but the maximum boost available was one point. To make it somewhat simpler I scored SUN from 145% unless 150% would be beneficial (Danno) For reasons of minimum progression those SUN scores are now final for anyone other than Danno who could improve, if the actual value is above 150% (will continue to be scored from 145% otherwise).

I have also added the current estimate order of finish for the main contest (best 10/12). This is of course subject to adjustments if Dec scores change but you can see how likely that might be from how close your DEC score is to the 10th best score substituted.

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__25th Dub (A)_snow ____ TOTAL

__ Estimated values ___ 4.0_15.0_-8.8_080_150__10.9_ 1.7_ Yes (any) _DEC _ (see note)*

M.T. Cranium _________ 05 _ 12 _ 01*_00 _ 02 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 ______ 27 (45, 612) _18

Tae laidir ____________ 07 _ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 01 ___ 5 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 40 (52, 680) _3t

john mac ____________ 07 _ 09 _ 02*_06 _ 01 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 3 ______ 35 (46, 590) _20

MrSkinner ___________ 08 _ 14 _ 00 _ 10 _ 02 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 43 (52, 637) _14

waterways ___________09 _ 17 _ 00 _ 11 _ 00 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 45 ( ---,619) _16

__ NormaL __________ 11 _ 15 _ 03*_08 _ 01 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 47 ( ---,558) _21.2

Pauldry _____________ 11 _ 00 _ 02*_13 _ 03 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 37 (49, 641) _13

Dacogawa ___________ 12 _ 18 _ 19 _ 01 _ 01 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 58 ( ---,667) _8

DOCARCH ___________ 14 _ 19 _ 02*_12 _ 03 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 3 ______ 60 ( ---,647) _11

Mr stonewall _________ 14 _ 19 _ 10*_12 _ 01 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 64 ( ---,680) _3t

Kindred Spirit ________ 14 _ 10 _ 03*_15 _ 04 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 54 ( ---,646) _12

Sunflower3 __________ 15 _ 19 _ 02*_15 _ 02 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 62 ( ---,657) _9

Appledrop ___________ 15 _ 15 _ 03*_05 _ 00 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 47 (57, 704) _1

Dasa29 _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 03*_02 _ 01 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 26 (50, 621) _15

___ Con Sensus ______ 15 _ 12 _ 03*_12 _ 02 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 52 (61, 689) _1.8

Gonzo ______________ 16 _ 12 _ 13*_06 _ 03 ___ 5 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 59 ( ---,668) _7

Artane2002 __________17 _ 17 _ 08*_13 _ 00 ___ 2 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 61 ( ---,673) _5t

Bsal ________________17 _ 01 _ 01*_06 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 34 (59, 673) _5t

WolfeEire  ___ (-5) ____18 _ 13 _ 19 _ 10 _ 01 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 _68-5 =63

esposito ____________ 19 _ 00 _ 18 _ 10 _ 02 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 56

SleetAndSnow ________22 _ 16 _ 02*_14 _ 09 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 3 ______ 71

Jpmarn _____________ 23 _ 05 _ 12*_ 13 _ 00 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 60 ( ---,653) _10

200motels __________ 23 _ 06 _ 07*_14 _ 07 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 63 ( ---,498) (8/12)_22

sryanbruen __________ 21 _ 12 _ 17 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 78 ( ---,684) _2

adam240610 _________20 _ 18 _ 20 _ 07 _ 03 ___ 5 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 78 ( ---,617) _17

Joe Public ___________ 18 _ 03 _ 16*_14 _ 05 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 63 ( ---,595) _19

Bazlers _____________ 14 _ 01 _ 02*_13 _ 04 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 40

Danno ______________12 _ 00 _ 01*_10 _ 08 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 36 ( ---,574) _21

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-5) ___00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _12-5 =10 (min score)

===================================

The element most in doubt above would be PRC, as several heavy rainfalls lie ahead and we are already at a guaranteed outcome of 60% after some locations picked up considerable amounts yesterday. The SUN amount has now been adjusted to 150% and assumes mostly cloudy skies 28th to end. I will re-calibrate this preliminary scoring table whenever circumstances change any elements, but quite a few of these scores are low enough that you could assume you will be using a different month for your 10th of 12 scores (whatever score in the last annual scoring table was then second lowest).

* Just to save you some bother, I went back and looked at the annual scoring in the NOV thread and all numbers above in brackets after totals are "guaranteed" scores both in terms of the next value to be added and the annual scoring total that creates. If there's no reason to bump the DEC score shown here, the first of those two numbers is replaced with --- ). These contest scoring details are not shown for the few December entrants who have only a few entries.

(previous comments about scoring generally still valid despite slight changes to totals above)

==========================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ 25th Dub (A) _ snow? 24/25

M.T. Cranium _________ 6.0 _ 15.8 _ -4.9 _ 133 _ 105 __ 11.2 __ 5.8 __ No

Tae laidir ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 088 _ 098 __ 11.3 __ 5.0 __ No

john mac ____________ 5.8 _ 13.9 _ -5.1 _ 108 _ 098 ___ 5.8 __ 1.4 __ Yes, Knock

MrSkinner ___________ 5.7 _ 14.4 _ -3.4 _ 094 _ 104 ___ 9.0 __ 2.0 __ No

waterways ___________5.6 _ 15.3 _ -4.0 _ 091 _ 097 ___ 9.0 __ 4.0 __ No

__ NormaL __________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.2 __ 2.2 __ No

Pauldry _____________ 5.4 _ 13.0 _ -6.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 9.0 __ 3.1 __ No

Dacogawa ___________ 5.3 _ 15.2 _ -8.7 _ 121 _ 100 ___ 4.5 _ -2.8 __ Yes, Dublin

DOCARCH ___________ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ -6.2 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 8.1 _ -0.8 __ Yes, Knock.

Mr stonewall _________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -7.4 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 7.8 __ 2.2 __ No

Kindred Spirit ________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -6.5 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 8.0 __ 1.0 __ No

Sunflower3 __________ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ -6.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 8.3 __ 2.0 __ No

Appledrop ___________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.4 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 8.6 __ 2.0 __ No .

Dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 6.0 _ -2.0 __ No

___ Con Sensus ______ 5.0 _ 14.2 _ -6.5 _ 088 _ 105 ___ 7.8 __ 1.4 __ No (15/26)

Gonzo ______________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.8 _ 108 _ 112 __ 11.8 __ 4.3 __ No

Artane2002 __________4.8 _ 14.7 _ -7.2 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 7.2 __ 3.2 __ No

Bsal ________________4.8 _ 13.1 _ -4.5 _ 108 _ 104 ___ 7.0 __ 1.1 __ No

WolfeEire ___ (-5) ____ 4.7 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 095 _ 100 __ 10.7 __ 5.8 __ no

esposito ____________ 4.6 _ 11.8 _ -8.6 _ 095 _ 104 ___ 7.9 _ -1.1 __ No

SleetAndSnow ________4.3 _ 14.6 _ -6.2 _ 078 _ 140 ___ 6.0 _ -2.1 __ Yes, Knock

Jpmarn _____________ 4.2 _ 13.5 _ -7.5 _ 085 _ 095 ___ 4.2 _ -3.2 __ Yes, Dublin

200motels __________3.8 _ 13.6 _ -7.1 _ 083 _ 131 ___ 3.8 _ -2.4 __ Yes, Mullingar

sryanbruen __________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -9.1 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 3.6 _ -2.3 __ Yes, Mullingar

adam240610 _________3.5 _ 14.8 _ -8.8 _ 103 _ 111 ___10.1 __1.4 __ No

Joe Public ___________ 3.3 _ 13.3 _ -9.3 _ 083 _ 123 ___ 4.3 _ -3.3 __ Yes, Knock

Bazlers _____________ 2.9 _ 13.1 _-11.8 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 7.2 _ -8.0 __ Yes, Casement

Danno ______________ 2.7 _ 12.9 _-12.3_ 065 _ 160 ___ 1.8 _ -8.8 __ Yes, Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-5) __ 0.7 _ 12.7 _ -14.7 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.7__ -5.8 __ Yes, Casement

===================================

For the snowfall question, 11/25 selected "yes" and of those, Knock had four votes, Mullingar, Dublin and Casement had two each, and Ballyhaise one. NormaL and Con Sensus can only score 3 if there is no snow 24th-25th.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 3.6 C, the fourth week average was 5.7 which was 0.4 above normal.

MAX 15.0 and MIN -8.8

PRC has moved up to 85% of normal. The fourth week was quite wet at 195%. There has been enough PRC to guarantee an outcome of 76% plus whatever falls today, Friday and Saturday. The GFS says that will be enough to bring us to 100-105 per cent. Scoring estimate may need another edit.

SUN will no doubt finish at or slightly above 140% as it has only fallen a bit, to 154% with the fourth week dropping off the pace at 90%.

The bonus question was scored (from 10.9, 1.7, Yes) -- see the scoring estimates posted a few days back.

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 3.9 at the end of the month.

PRC has finished around 98-99 per cent. This will result in slight changes to the scoring here and I will get an exact value from the MS percentages and confirm the scores then.

SUN looks like it may be held down to 140% as there has been mostly cloudy skies since fourth week ended (also confirmed for 31st).

We will be waiting until at least the 3rd and possibly the 4th for final results confirmed by MS.

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__25th Dub (A)_snow ____ TOTAL

__ Estimated values ___ 3.9_15.0_-8.8_099_140__10.9_ 1.7_ Yes (any) _DEC _ (see note)*

M.T. Cranium _________ 04 _ 12 _ 01*_04 _ 03 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 ______ 31 (45, 612) _18

Tae laidir ____________ 06 _ 12 _ 00 _ 11 _ 02 ___ 5 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 39 (52, 680) _2

john mac ____________ 06 _ 09 _ 02*_12 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 3 ______ 41 (46, 590) _20

MrSkinner ___________ 07 _ 14 _ 00 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 46 (52, 637) _14

waterways ___________08 _ 17 _ 00 _ 12 _ 01 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 46 ( ---,620) _17

__ NormaL __________ 10 _ 15 _ 03*_15 _ 02 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 54 ( ---,565) _21.1

Pauldry _____________ 10 _ 00 _ 02*_10 _ 04 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 34 (49, 641) _12

Dacogawa ___________ 11 _ 18 _ 19 _ 08 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 65 ( ---,674) _5t

DOCARCH ___________ 13 _ 19 _ 02*_12 _ 04 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 3 ______ 60 ( ---,647) _11

Mr stonewall _________ 13 _ 19 _ 10*_11 _ 02 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 63 ( ---,679) _3t

Kindred Spirit ________ 13 _ 10 _ 03*_08 _ 05 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 47 (48, 639) _13

Sunflower3 __________ 14 _ 19 _ 02*_08 _ 03 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 55 ( ---,650) _9t

Appledrop ___________ 14 _ 15 _ 03*_11 _ 01 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 53 (57, 704) _1

Dasa29 _____________ 14 _ 00 _ 03*_08 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 32 (50, 621) _16

___ Con Sensus ______ 14 _ 12 _ 03*_11 _ 03 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 51 (61, 689) _1.7

Gonzo ______________ 15 _ 12 _ 13*_12 _ 04 ___ 5 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 65 ( ---,674) _5t

Artane2002 __________16 _ 17 _ 08*_10 _ 00 ___ 2 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 57 ( ---,669) _8

Bsal ________________16 _ 01 _ 01*_12 _ 03 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 40 (59, 673) _7

WolfeEire  ___ (-5) ____17 _ 13 _ 19 _ 14 _ 02 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 _72-5 =67

esposito ____________ 18 _ 00 _ 18 _ 14 _ 03 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 60

SleetAndSnow ________21 _ 16 _ 02*_08 _ 10 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 3 ______ 65

Jpmarn _____________ 22 _ 05 _ 12*_10 _ 01 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 57 ( ---,650) _9t

200motels __________ 24 _ 06 _ 07*_10 _ 08 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 61 ( ---,496) (8/12)_22

sryanbruen __________ 22 _ 12 _ 17 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 73 ( ---,679) _3t

adam240610 _________21 _ 18 _ 20 _ 14 _ 04 ___ 5 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 87 ( ---,626) _15

Joe Public ___________ 19 _ 03 _ 16*_09 _ 06 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 60 ( ---,592) _19

Bazlers _____________ 15 _ 01 _ 02*_07 _ 05 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 36

Danno ______________13 _ 00 _ 01*_03 _ 06 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 28 ( ---,566) _21

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-5) ___00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _19-5 =14

==========================================

These latest scoring changes have not done much to the overall picture of rankings.

Adam240610 now has one of the highest scores in recent years at 87.

(actual forecasts) _ see previous table

NOTE: If possible I will edit this table before 24h from now, when I can confirm monthly IMT and PRC from met.ie site, so there may be small changes made to this table tomorrow. Unless there are any surprises in the MS that adjustment should be pretty close to the final values. But I will hold off on posting annual scoring and category scoring until after I can confirm my scoring values. So that may not be possible until 4th, not sure what date the MS will appear, if Monday 2nd is considered a holiday in lieu of Sunday 1st, then it would be the 4th, otherwise the 3rd.

M.T. Cranium

As suspected, no MS today so will be confirming DEC scoring tomorrow, but will start to generate the scoring posts now with enough time to edit where necessary. Starting with the DEC scoring we have, but now in order of finish ...

and very slight changes were required, here's the final scoring for December

Final scoring for December 2022

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__25th Dub (A)_snow ____ TOTAL

__ Confirmed values ___ 3.9_15.0_-8.8_098_148__10.9_ 1.7_ Yes (any) _

adam240610 _________21 _ 18 _ 20 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 5 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 86

sryanbruen __________ 22 _ 12 _ 17 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 74

WolfeEire  ___ (-5) ____17 _ 13 _ 19 _ 14 _ 02 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 _72-5 =67

Gonzo ______________ 15 _ 12 _ 13*_12 _ 04 ___ 5 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 65

Dacogawa ___________ 11 _ 18 _ 19 _ 07 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 64

SleetAndSnow ________21 _ 16 _ 02*_08 _ 09 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 3 ______ 64

Mr stonewall _________ 13 _ 19 _ 10*_12 _ 02 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 64

200motels __________ 24 _ 06 _ 07*_11 _ 08 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 62

Joe Public ___________ 19 _ 03 _ 16*_10 _ 06 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 61

esposito ____________ 18 _ 00 _ 18 _ 14 _ 03 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 60

DOCARCH ___________ 13 _ 19 _ 02*_12 _ 04 ___ 3 __ 4 __ 3 ______ 60

Artane2002 __________16 _ 17 _ 08*_11 _ 00 ___ 2 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 58

Jpmarn _____________ 22 _ 05 _ 12*_11 _ 01 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 58

Sunflower3 __________ 14 _ 19 _ 02*_09 _ 03 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 56

__ NormaL __________ 10 _ 15 _ 03*_14 _ 02 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 53

Appledrop ___________ 14 _ 15 _ 03*_11 _ 01 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 53

___ Con Sensus ______ 14 _ 12 _ 03*_11 _ 03 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 51

Kindred Spirit ________ 13 _ 10 _ 03*_09 _ 05 ___ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 48

MrSkinner ___________ 07 _ 14 _ 00 _ 14 _ 03 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 47

waterways ___________08 _ 17 _ 00 _ 13 _ 01 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 47

john mac ____________ 06 _ 09 _ 02*_12 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 3 ______41

Bsal ________________16 _ 01 _ 01*_12 _ 03 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 40

Tae laidir ____________ 06 _ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 02 ___ 5 __ 3 __ 0 ______40

Bazlers _____________ 15 _ 01 _ 02*_08 _ 05 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 37

Pauldry _____________ 10 _ 00 _ 02*_11 _ 04 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 0 ______ 35

Dasa29 _____________ 14 _ 00 _ 03*_08 _ 02 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 32

Danno ______________ 13 _ 00 _ 01*_04 _ 08 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 31

M.T. Cranium _________04 _ 12 _ 01*_03 _ 03 ___ 5 __ 2 __ 0 ______ 30

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-5) ___ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _19-5 =14

==========================================

M.T. Cranium

==-- <<< Annual Scoring Summary __ Final Report 2022 >>> --==

The table order is determined by the best 10/12. Ranks for total score continue to be shown and compared to previous month. (This is the main contest award). Ranks for the total score are tracked in the first column. These results are now final with December scores slightly adjusted.

Appledrop has held on to leads in both contests, with Tae laidir and Sryanbruen closest to the lead in the main contest (after Con Sensus) while Artane2002 has second highest total score. Dacogawa, Mr Stonewall, Bsal and Gonzo are also there or thereabouts.

(scores dropped for best 10/12 are in italic. any missed month(s) also dropped, 11/12 will show one dropped score.

Total score _______________________________________________________ Best 10/12 (table based)

Rank (prev) _FORECASTER ___Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec__TOTAL //_ (rank) (prev)

_01 _(01) _Appledrop _______67 _76 _55 _68_79 _89 _57 _65 _68 _61_74_53 __812__704 (1)_(1)

01.5_(01.5)__ Con Sensus ___80 _70 _56 _77_61 _70 _64 _64 _65 _66_72_51 __796__689 (1.6) (t2)

_05 _(02) _ Tae laidir _______70 _77 _52 _66_76 _64 _64 _68 _50 _67_76_40 __770__680 (t2)_(2)

_03 _(06) _sryanbruen ______65 _58 _49 _67_65 _67 _83 _65 _72 _64_45_74 __774__680 (t2)_(8)

_07 _(07) _Mr stonewall _____67 _70 _57 _78_68 _73 _43 _73 _39 _67_63_64 __762__680 (t2)_(3)

_06 _(03) _ Bsal ___________61 _67 _69 _68_73 _71 _68 _55 _69 _59_68_40 __768__673 (5)_(4)

_12 _(14) _Gonzo __________43 _49 _67 _78_65 _63 _70 _--- _77 _66_74_65 __717__674 (6)_(t6)

_04 _(05) _dacogawa _______78 _63 _58 _50_56 _77 _48 _77 _57 _79_64_64 __771__673 (7)_(t6)

_02 _(04) _Artane2002 _____ 59 _70 _55 _75_60 _51 _68 _72 _58 _73_77_58 __776__670 (8)_(5)

_10 _(t11)_Jpmarn _________54 _55 _55 _76_44 _54 _71 _76 _31 _72_80_58 __726__651 (t9)_(10)

_15 _(16) _sunflower3 ______77 _60 _61 _68_66 _59 _--- _72 _64 _46_68_56 __697__651 (t9)_(9)

_08 _(10) _DOCARCH ______ 78 _50 _47 _77_61 _78 _42 _55 _70 _48_70_60 __736__647 (11)_(13)

_11 _(09) _Pauldry _________78 _77 _57 _55_64 _75 _61 _50 _42 _49_75_35 __718__641 (12)_(t11)

_17 _(17) _Kindred Spirit ____80 _66 _48 _69_55 _63 _63 _78 _66 _---_52_48 __688__640 (13)_(t11)

_09 _(08) _MrSkinner ______ 63 _63 _67 _82_66 _70 _55 _56 _52 _47_63_47 __731__637 (14)_(14)

_16 _(20) _adam240610 ____ 54 _26 _54 _77_47 _76 _55 _45 _59 _65_52_86__696__625 (15)_(19)

_13 _(13) _waterways ______ 65_ 45 _47 _69_54 _56 _51 _73 _69 _65_72_47 __713__621 (t16)_(15)

_14 _(t11)_Dasa29 _________72 _50 _50 _65_65 _63 _47 _64 _76 _58_58_32 __700__621 (t16)_(16)

_18 _(15) _M.T. Cranium ____ 65 _45 _39 _81_46 _79 _45 _71 _72 _54_54_30 __681__612 (18)_(17)

_19 _(18t)_Joe Public _______50 _57 _53 _66_53 _57 _71 _58 _67 _38_49_61 __680__593 (19) _(20)

_20 _(18t)_john mac________82 _53 _69 _54_54 _73 _29 _46 _54 _49_56_41 __660__590 (20)_(18)

_21 _ (21)_Danno _________ 30 _19 _64 _81_57 _46 _80 _77 _52 _36_46_31 __619*_ 569 (21)_(21)

20.5_(20.5)__ NormaL _____ 60 _57 _54 _68_55 _77 _38 _37 _60 _41_39_53 __639__564 (21.1)_(21.1)

_22 _(22) _200motels ______ 57 _49 _---_74_--- _--- _76 _45 _70 _ ---_64_62 __497 (8) entries

_23 _(23) _esposito ________52 _--- _--- _---_--- _--- _---_58 _--- _ ---_---_60 _ 170 (3) ent

_24 _(24) _Gaoth laidir _____--- _--- _70 _---_--- _--- _--- _36 _--- _ ---_---_--- _ 106 (2) ent

_25 _(25) _Tazio __________ --- _--- _--- _---_--- _--- _48 _--- _57 _ ---_---_--- _ 105 (2) ent

_26 _(26) _Bazlers ________56 _--- _--- _ ---_--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ ---_---_37 __93 (2) ent

_27 _(---) _WolfeEire ______---_--- _--- _ ---_--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ ---_---_67 __ 67 (1) ent

_28 _(---) _Sleet and Snow_ ---_--- _--- _ ---_--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ ---_---_64 __ 64 (1) ent

_29 _(---) _McBurns07 _____---_--- _--- _ ---_--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ ---_56 _--- __ 56 (1) ent

_30 _(---) _Sweet Talkin Romeo --_-- _-- _ ---_--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ ---_52 _--- __ 52 (1) ent

_31 _(---) _BLIZZARD7_____---_--- _--- _ ---_--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ ---_--- _14 __ 14 (1) entries

==================================================

* Have adjusted Danno's official August score to the alternate as discussed, since it won't impact on contest results.

Updated category scoring for the January to December 2022 contest

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________300 _ 240 _ 240 _180 _120 __120+__1200 _1200

Appledrop _____________ 238 _ 152 _ 130 _118_ 78 __ 87 ____ 813 _ 812

___ Consensus _________ 244*_156* _120 _105 _ 82 __ 89 ____796 _ 796

Artane2002 ___________ 249 _ 144 __133*_ 89 _ 73 __ 88*____776 _ 776

sryanbruen ____________ 240*_166  _106 _ 93 _ 91 __ 78 ____ 774 _ 774*

Dacogawa _____________249 _148 _ 139 __80 _ 74 __ 81 ____ 771 _ 771

Tae laidir ______________232 _ 136 _ 116 _ 117 _82 __ 87 ____ 770 _ 770

Bsal __________________227 _ 144_ 133*  _ 95 _ 78 __91 ____ 768 _ 768

Mr Stonewall ___________218 _145 _ 140 _102 _ 76 __ 81 _____ 762 _ 762

DOCARCH _____________218 _ 157 _ 115 _ 95 _ 74 __ 77 _____ 736 _ 736

MrSkinner _____________224 _ 128 __ 90 _116*_85*__88*_____ 731 _ 731

Jpmarn _______________225 _ 127 _ 108 _115 _ 75 __ 76 _____ 726 _ 726

Pauldry _______________233 _ 126 __116 _ 76 _ 82 __ 86 _____ 719 _ 718

Gonzo ________________210 _ 156*_ 114 _ 89 _ 73 __ 76 _____ 718 _ 717

waterways ____________ 226 _ 151 __ 85 _102 _ 86 __ 66 _____ 716 _ 713

Dasa29 _______________212 _ 131 __111 _ 93 _ 78 __ 78 _____ 703 _ 700

Sunflower3 ____________212 _ 145 __89 _103 _ 69 __ 79 _____ 697 _ 697

Adam240610 __________ 226 _ 136 _ 118 _ 80 _ 68 __ 73 _____ 701 _ 696

Kindred Spirit __________217 _ 132 __ 96 _ 98 _ 72 __ 73 _____ 688 _ 688

M.T. Cranium __________ 220 _ 111 _ 108 _ 77 _ 77 __ 89 ____ 681 _ 681

Joe Public______________216 _138 __115 _87 _ 72 __ 56 _____ 683 _ 680

John mac _____________ 234 __ 98 __ 90 _ 87 _ 80 __ 72 _____ 661 _ 660

__ NormaL ____________183 __119 __ 59 _ 89 _ 87 _102 ____ 639 _ 639

Danno _______________ 175 _ 134 __ 77 _107 _ 64 __65 _____ 622 _ 619

200motels _ (8/12)_____ 156 __105 __ 68 _ 72 _ 58 __ 49 _____507 _ 496

esposito _ (3/12)________ 64 __ 31 __ 21 _ 22 _ 12 __ 20 _____170 _ 170

Gaoth Laidir _(2/12)______39 __ 18 __ 03 _ 14 _ 11 __ 21 _____106 _ 106

Tazio ___ (2/12)_________26 __ 38 __ 20 _ 02 _ 16 __ 13 _____115 _105

Bazlers _ (2/12)_________ 39 __ 08 __ 02 _ 21 _ 13 __ 10 _____ 93 _ 93

WolfeEire (1/12) _______ 17 __ 13 __ 19 _ 14 _ 02 __ 07 _____ 72 _ 67

SleetAndSnow _ (1/12) ___21 __ 16 __ 02 _ 08 _ 09 __ 08 _____ 64 _ 64

McBurns07 _ (1/12) ______24 __ 15 __ 00 _ 10 _ 00 __ 07 _____ 56 _ 56

Sweet Talkin Romeo (1/12)_24 __ 12 __ 00 _ 04 _ 05 __ 07 _____ 52 _ 52

BLIZZARD7 __ (1/12) _____00 __ 00 __ 00 _ 08 _ 06 __ 05 _____19 _ 14

=====================================

In the category scoring, bold shows first place in that category, bold italic shows second, an asterisk denotes third.

There are two forecasters tied for first in IMT, so there is no second place designated, just third (Con Sensus also would be third).

In MAX, Con Sensus would be tied for third.

MIN has two tied for third.

SUN _ NormaL would be second.

BONUS _ NormaL would be first, Con Sensus tied for second, and there are two forecasters tied for third.

Adj (score after penalties) _ Con Sensus would be second.

All of the above tables are subject to adjustments on Wed 4th and I will post some further annual summary material after that.

Will declare the results official later on 4th.

M.T. Cranium

Meanwhile, here's the update on the annual report of high scores and multi-year scoring, updated directly from last year's posts. Once again, this is subject to review later today but I wouldn't expect much about this report to change significantly.

• Best monthly forecasts (all scores 83+ appear here) 2010 to 2022
• 
  
• FORECASTER _______Month _____ Score ___ Rank for this forecaster
• 
  
• John mac _________ 06 2013 _____ 94 _____ 1
• BLIZZARD7 ________05 2018 _____ 92 _____ 1
• Con Sensus ________03 2014 _____ 92 _____ 1
• Artane2002 ________07 2019 _____ 91 _____ 1
• Con Sensus ________11 2017 _____ 91 _____ 2
• mickger844posts ____12 2019 _____ 90 _____t1
• dacogawa __________07 2017 _____ 90 _____ 1
• NormaL ___________ 12 2017 _____ 90 _____ 1
• mickger844posts ____ 02 2015 _____ 90 _____t1
• Schadenfreudia _____ 11 2015 _____ 90 _____ 1
• Appledrop __________06 2022 _____ 89 _____ 1
• Pauldry ____________03 2018 _____ 89 _____ 1
• Western Storm ______11 2017 _____ 89 _____ 1
• Lumi, dacogawa and_(03 2016) ____ 89, 89 ___ 1, 2 (dac)
• ___ mickger844posts_03 2016 _____ 89 ______3
• sunflower3 ________ 12 2016 _____ 89 ______ 1
• Bsal ______________12 2021 _____ 88 ______ 1
• sryanbruen ________ 04 2020 _____ 88 ______ 1
• MrSkinner _________ 12 2019 _____ 88 ______ 1
• Rameire ___________07 2018 _____ 88 ______ 1
• M.T. Cranium _______11 2016 _____ 88 ______ 1
• Kindred spirit _______12 2014 _____ 88 ______ 1
• Strasser ___________12 2011 _____ 88 ______ 1
• MrSkinner, Kindred Sp 12 2021 _____ 87 ______ 2, 2
• waterways _________12 2019 _____ 87 ______ 1
• Kindred spirit _______11 2018 _____ 87 ______ 3
• Joe Public __________05 2017 _____ 87 ______ 1
• Sponge Bob ________ 11 2012 _____ 87 ______ 1
• Adam240610 _______12 2022 _____ 86 ______ 1
• MrSkinner __________01 2020 _____ 86 ______ 3
• JPmarn ____________01 2020 _____ 86 ______ 1
• M.T. Cranium _______05 2018 _____ 86 ______t2
• Tae laidir __________ 01 2016 _____ 86 ______ 1
• M.T. Cranium _______04 2015 _____ 86 ______t2
• dasa29 ____________03 2019 _____ 85 ______ 1
• Pauldry ___________ 07 2019 _____ 85 ______ 2
• 200motels _________05 2018 _____ 85 ______ 1
• sryanbruen ________ 07 2018 _____ 85 ______ 2
• NormaL ___________ 08 2018 _____ 85 ______ 2
• MrSkinner _________ 03 2015 _____ 85 ______ 4
• Tae laidir __________ 02 2014 _____ 85 ______ 2
• omicron ___________03 2014 _____ 85 ______ 1
• dasa29, Artane 2002_ 11 2020 _____ 84 ______ 1, 2 (Art)
• Gonzo ____________ 07 2020 _____ 84 ______ 1
• waterways _________06 2019 _____ 84 ______ 2
• rikand ____________01 2015 _____ 84 ______ 1
• JPmarn ___________12 2013 _____ 84 ______ 2
• Con Sensus ________11 2012 _____ 84 ______ 3
• Tae laidir __________12 2011 _____ 84 ______ 2
• Sryanbruen ________ 07 2022 _____83 ______ 3
• Gonzo ____________03 2021 _____ 83 ______ 2
• Tae laidir ________ 03,07 2019 ____83 ______ 3
• John mac _________ 06 2019 _____ 83 ______ 2
• dasa29 ___________ 03 2018 _____ 83 ______ 2
• Rougies ___________11 2017 _____ 83 ______ 1
• John mac _________ 10 2016 _____ 83 ______ 3
• DOCARCH _________10 2015 _____ 83 ______ 1
• Con Sensus _______ 04 2014 _____ 83 ______ 4
• DOCARCH ________ 10 2013 _____ 83 ______ 2
• Joe Public ________ 04 2010 _____ 83 ______ 1
• 
  
• note: 82 Dec 2018 for Adam240610 noted before the above 87 in Dec 2022.
• 
  
• also updating this table of all-time performances from 2020 results (partial annual participation not used as it would distort full-time averages from earlier) ... and note, this table has used only "best 10/12" ranks which tend to discount differences based on number of contests between the qualifying 10 and 12 limits. Artane2002 and Adam240610 after the table now have four years, I have listed Appledrop, Gonzo and MrStonewall after just two full years, they all joined part way through 2020.
• Artane2002 was unlucky to drop any positions this update as as they finished second in total score but 8th in a very tight grouping this year in best 10/12.
• 
  
• FORECASTER ___ YEARS (with 10-12 contests) ___ Average Rank to 2022 (2021)
• 
  
• Active now
• Appledrop ___________2 ___________________ 3.5 ___ (6th in 2021) (6, 1)
• 
  
• ___ Con Sensus _____ 13 ___________________ 3.9 ___ 4.1
• 
  
• Artane2002 _________ 4 ____________________4.3 ___ 3.0 (2, 4, 3, 8)
• MrStonewall _________2 ____________________6.0 __10.0 (t2, 10)
• MrSkinner __________ 8 ____________________6.6 ___ 5.7
• Tae laidir ___________12 ___________________ 6.8 ___ 7.3
• Sunflower3 _________ 8 ____________________ 7.9 ___ 7.7
• sryanbruen _________ 7 ____________________ 8.4 ___ 9.5
• JPmarn ____________10____________________ 8.5 ___ 8.4
• Pauldry ____________12____________________ 8.7 ___ 8.3
• DOCARCH _________ 14 ____________________ 9.9 ___ 9.8
• bsal ______________ 10 ____________________ 9.9 __ 10.4
• kindred spirit _______14 ___________________ 10.2 __ 10.2
• Adam240610 _______ 4 ____________________12.8 __ 12.0
• Gonzo ____________ 13 ___________________ 13.0 __ 20.0 (6, 20)
• John mac __________13 ___________________ 13.3 __ 12.8
• dacogawa _________ 12 ___________________ 13.5 __ 14.1
• M.T. Cranium _______14 ___________________ 14.1 __ 13.8
• waterways _________12 ___________________ 14.2 __ 14.0
• Danno (2009-12,21) _ 6 ____________________15.2 __ 14.0
• dasa29 ___________ 14 ___________________ 15.5 __ 15.5
• Joe Public _________ 13 ___________________ 16.8 __ 16.7
• 200motels ________ 14 ____________________17.4 __ 17.2
• BLIZZARD7 ________ 3*____________________20.3 __ 20.0
• * did not change stats. 2021-22 part-time entrant only
• 
  
• 
  
• Legends of the past
• 
  
• Jerry Seinfeld (2010-13)____4 ________________ 5.25 (3, 3, 3, 12)
• Lumi (2010-12,15-17) _____ 6 ________________ 6.5
• nilhg (2009-13) __________ 5 ________________ 8.0
• Mickger844posts (2011-20) _10 _______________ 8.8
• Rikand (2012-20) _________ 9 _______________11.6
• harps (2011-15) __________ 5 _______________12.6
• Rameire (2011-19) ________ 9 _______________13.2
• Strasser (2009-13) ________ 5 _______________16.6
• JD (2009-16) _____________8 _______________17.4
• 
  
• _________________________________________________
• 
  

• my avatar photo at a viewable size, Capitol Reef NP, Utah, April 2019, incipient funnel cloud passing in front of a reef (rock formation).
• (non sequitur award)
• This table was first posted in Dec 2019 and was next updated in 2021, and here's a further update for the leaderboard. ...
• (2019 text) ... winners from every year we've had this contest. This table does not show the position of Con Sensus (we've had enough of his or her bragging). I show the top three for each year. To make for an easier fit, mickger844posts is shortened to mickger in this table.
• 
  
• Highest scores of all time are in bold highlights. They were both in 2016.
• 
  
• 
  
• YEAR _ Boards Award (best 10 of 12) __________
• ______________________________"MTC Award" (total score)

2022 _ Appledrop (704), Tae laidir Sryanbruen & Mr Stonewall (t680)

_________________________________ Appledrop (812), Artane2002 (775), Sryanbruen (773)

2021 _ Sunflower3 (702), Tae laidir, (679) Artane2002 (668)

________________________________ Sunflower3 (791), Artane2002 (759), Tae laidir (753)

2020 _ JPmarn (675), dasa29 (670), Artane2002 (663)

________________________________ JPmarn (764), dasa29 (756), Pauldry (738)

2019 _ Tae laidir (711) Artane 2002 (695) waterways (694)

_______________________________ Tae laidir (810) sunflower3 (766) mickger (765)

2018 _ Pauldry (708) sryanbruen (683) DOCARCH (672)

_______________________________ Pauldry (814) sryanbruen (765) DOCARCH, JPmarn (761)

2017 _ Pauldry (700) MrSkinner (t2-687), tae laidir (t2-687)

_______________________________ Pauldry (816) mickger (789) MrSkinner (782)

2016 _ sunflower3 (717) MrSkinner (702) Lumi (689)

_______________________________ MrSkinner (818) sunflower3 (802) dacogawa (769)

2015 _ JPmarn (669) M.T. Cranium (661) Lumi (659)

________________________________ Lumi (761) Rikand (745) JPmarn (744)

2014 _ Rikand (689) harps (688) Bsal (651)

________________________________Rikand (791) harps*(737) kindred spirit (720)

2013 _ Tae laidir (602) harps (579) kindred spirit (566)

_______________________________ Tae laidir (683) harps (646) kindred spirit (641)

2012 _ Sponge Bob (605) Lumi (599) Jerry Seinfeld (585)

_______________________________ Sponge Bob (692) Lumi (670) Jerry Seinfeld (654)

2011 _ nilhg (560) kindred spirit (529) Jerry Seinfeld (521)

______________________________ nilhg (636) mickger (584) kindred spirit (583)

2010 _ Danno (549) Joe Public (509) Jerry Seinfeld** (502)

______________________________Danno (613) Joe Public (568) DOCARCH (541)

2009^^ Danno avg 62.6, JD avg 59.4, dasa29 avg 59.3

_____________________________ Danno (751) dasa29 (712) Nacho libre (708)

____________________________________________________________________

• *In 2014 harps managed second place total score off eleven entries.
• ** In 2010 Jerry Seinfeld played 11 of 12 which is why he missed out on second or third in the total scoring.
• ^^ In 2009 we did not track best ten of twelve and the main contest award was by average score as shown.
• ===============================================================
• 
  
• From the above it can be seen that Sunflower3, Tae laidir, JPmarn and Pauldry have each won the main (Boards) award twice, Sunflower3 in 2016 and 2021, Tae Laidir in 2013 and 2019, JPmarn in 2015 and 2020, and Pauldry in 2017 and 2018. Also, Danno won twice in 2009 and 2010. Tae laidir added a T-2 in the Boards award for 2017 and finished second again both this year and in 2021.
• Most of the Boards award winners also won the secondary (total score) MTC award when they won the Boards award, but not always. There were different winners of total score in the 2015 and 2016 contests. Other Boards award winners have been Rikand (2014), nilhg (2011) and Sponge Bob (2012). The two winners of the total score (MTC) award who were not also Boards award winners were MrSkinner and Lumi.
• A few other names show up more than once, including Lumi, mickger844posts, kindred spirit, harps, MrSkinner and Jerry Seinfeld.
• By the way, it's not that scoring has improved, I don't think we had minimum progression before 2014.
• Three have played every contest from 2010 to the present time: Dasa29, DOCARCH and M.T. Cranium; kindred spirit has missed only four. 200motels also joined later in 2009 and played almost all the contests from 2010 to 2021 and eight more in 2022. Dacogawa and John mac have been very frequent entrants also since some time around 2009-10. Joe Public also quite a lengthy record (so I'm told).
• It is interesting how many people do about the same in most contest years but almost everyone has that one year where they break out and have a chance at a win or at least a top three finish. The 2.0 version of Danno has not quite gained the consistency of Danno 1.0, last yearI said I was sure it will come on this year though and that was about the same as many other predictions I made in the contest, but Danno has begun to show some good form in the second half of 2022 (by my estimation).
• 
  
• 
  
• Registered User
• ✭✭✭✭
• Join Date: April 2007
• Posts: 13091
• 
  
• 
  
• This table was first posted in Dec 2019 and was not updated last year so here's a two year update for the leaderboard. ...
• (2019 text) ... winners from every year we've had this contest. This table does not show the position of Con Sensus (we've had enough of his or her bragging). I show the top three for each year. To make for an easier fit, mickger844posts is shortened to mickger in this table.
• 
  
• Highest category scores of all time are in bold highlights. They were both in 2016.
• 
  
• 
  
• YEAR _ Boards Award (best 10 of 12) _________________"MTC Award" (total score)
• 
  
• 2021 _ Sunflower3 (702), Tae laidir, (679) Artane2002 (668)
• ________________________________ Sunflower3 (791), Artane2002 (759), Tae laidir (753)
• 
  
• 2020 _ JPmarn (675), dasa29 (670), Artane2002 (663)
• ________________________________ JPmarn (764), dasa29 (756), Pauldry (738)
• 
  
• 2019 _ Tae laidir (711) Artane 2002 (695) waterways (694)
• _______________________________ Tae laidir (810) sunflower3 (766) mickger (765)
• 
  
• 2018 _ Pauldry (708) sryanbruen (683) DOCARCH (672)
• _______________________________ Pauldry (814) sryanbruen (765) DOCARCH, JPmarn (761)
• 
  
• 2017 _ Pauldry (700) MrSkinner (t2-687), tae laidir (t2-687)
• _______________________________ Pauldry (816) mickger (789) MrSkinner (782)
• 
  
• 2016 _ sunflower3 (717) MrSkinner (702) Lumi (689)
• _______________________________ MrSkinner (818) sunflower3 (802) dacogawa (769)
• 
  
• 2015 _ JPmarn (669) M.T. Cranium (661) Lumi (659)
• ________________________________ Lumi (761) Rikand (745) JPmarn (744)
• 
  
• 2014 _ Rikand (689) harps (688) Bsal (651)
• ________________________________Rikand (791) harps*(737) kindred spirit (720)
• 
  
• 2013 _ Tae laidir (602) harps (579) kindred spirit (566)
• _______________________________ Tae laidir (683) harps (646) kindred spirit (641)
• 
  
• 2012 _ Sponge Bob (605) Lumi (599) Jerry Seinfeld (585)
• _______________________________ Sponge Bob (692) Lumi (670) Jerry Seinfeld (654)
• 
  
• 2011 _ nilhg (560) kindred spirit (529) Jerry Seinfeld (521)
• ______________________________ nilhg (636) mickger (584) kindred spirit (583)
• 
  
• 2010 _ Danno (549) Joe Public (509) Jerry Seinfeld** (502)
• ______________________________Danno (613) Joe Public (568) DOCARCH (541)
• 
  
• 2009^^ Danno avg 62.6, JD avg 59.4, dasa29 avg 59.3
• _____________________________ Danno (751) dasa29 (712) Nacho libre (708)
• ____________________________________________________________________
• 
  
• *In 2014 harps managed second place total score off eleven entries.
• ** In 2010 Jerry Seinfeld played 11 of 12 which is why he missed out on second or third in the total scoring.
• ^^ In 2009 we did not track best ten of twelve and the main contest award was by average score as shown.
• ===============================================================
• 
  
• From the above it can be seen that Sunflower3, Tae laidir, JPmarn and Pauldry have each won the main (Boards) award twice, Sunflower3 in 2016 and this past year, Tae Laidir in 2013 and 2019, JPmarn in 2015 and 2020, and Pauldry in 2017 and 2018. Also, Danno won twice in 2009 and 2010. Tae laidir added a T-2 in the Boards award for 2017 and finished second again this year.
• Most of the Boards award winners also won the secondary (total score) MTC award when they won the Boards award, but not always. There were different winners of total score in the 2015 and 2016 contests. Other Boards award winners have been Rikand (2014), nilhg (2011) and Sponge Bob (2012). The two winners of the total score (MTC) award who were not also Boards award winners were MrSkinner and Lumi.
• A few other names show up more than once, including Lumi, mickger844posts, kindred spirit, harps, MrSkinner and Jerry Seinfeld.
• By the way, it's not that scoring has improved, I don't think we had minimum progression before 2014.
• Three have played every contest from 2010 to the present time: Dasa29, DOCARCH and M.T. Cranium; kindred spirit has missed only three. 200motels also joined later in 2009 and has played almost all the contests from 2010 to 2021. Dacogawa and John mac have been very frequent entrants also since some time around 2009-10. Joe Public also quite a lengthy record (so I'm told).
• It is interesting how many people do about the same in most contest years but almost everyone has that one year where they break out and have a chance at a win or at least a top three finish. The 2.0 version of Danno has not quite gained the consistency of Danno 1.0, sure it will come on this year though.
• 
  
• 
  

________________________

M.T. Cranium

After checking the MS, very slight changes underway to DEC and annual scoring, has made just a few small differences to ranks. So you can check the edited tables, but I feel it's safe to declare the contest results final, congrats to Appledrop for winning both the Boards (best 10/12) and MTC (all 12 scores) first place(s), Tae laidir second as per last year also, and tied with both Mr Stonewall and Sryanbruen for second in the Boards, while in total score Artane2002 was second and Sryanbruen was third.

Appledrop also had the highest contest score (89) in June while Adam240610 had 86 in December, a month with generally low scoring so that was a very good effort indeed.

appledrop

Well have to say I'm delighted, after a dismal score in December I have to say I thought I had blown it!

M.T & all fellow boardies thanks so much for making this contest so fun, I would never have found it if it wasn't for lockdown, my personal favourites are when we pick a date and have to monitor Rainfall or Max temperature etc for that day, it's great fun on the day.

Last but not least I would like to thank my baby who kept me up all night and obviously helped contribute to my forecasts😁.

As you can all probably tell from my posts if you met me in real life I talk a lot🤣.

Tae laidir

Thanks MT for all your considerable and unceasing effort.

There's nothing like a little competition to focus the mind and appreciate our weather and all the amazing science that attempts to analyse and forecast it.

Much appreciated!

WolfeEire

Serious work put into that, MTC. Thanks very much

adam240610

Cheers for this MTC! Glad to finish off a pretty poor year on a high haha

mr.stonewall

Well done to Appledrop on the title and a good number of excellent monthly totals.

I have enjoyed the contest, an a major word of thanks thanks must go to MTC for making it happen consistently. Best of luck to everyone in 2023

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120067751#Comment_120067751

Most of the historical overview was done back around 2019 and 2020, I'm just updating the files created then for those all-time scoring results. What I find most interesting is that people tend to keep doing about the same year after year, with a few exceptions, obviously some bring a better strategy than others or have additional skill, think it's a bit of both. Going against consensus is clearly not a great strategy because con sensus is one of our top performers year after year. However, you could go against consensus with skill on occasions, it's not as though the consensus scores are so high that they leave no room for improvement. But it seems that nine out of ten attempts to "buck the trend" end in a low scoring result. For the wise group (I would not say minority) who have worked that out, it comes down to catching the fine tuning of very small differences. I worked out that a 30 point difference in IMT total score over the year amounts to an improvement of just 0.25 C, something you would barely notice and almost within the margin of error. Even if you outperform by 60 points, your improvement is only 0.5 C a month.

Tae laidir

Following Con is no fun. Great when you buck the trend and get it right!

kindredspirit

Thanks for all your work, MTC. Very much appreciated.

pauldry

Well done Appledrop. I was just looking and if ya can get over 700 of a total for the 10/12 ya are usually in with a shout though easier said than done