Take one player from each province

Dubinusa

It's interesting to note the Joe McCarthy is already capped internationally!. I don't know how good he will turn out but, he's well regarded. Whether Munster fans like him or not.

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119933338#Comment_119933338

Why don't you rate the young crop? That's strange, as there's so many of them in the u20's!

From the perspective of assessing the quality of the young talent at the four provinces, I looked at the below of picking a team from players aged 25 and under across the four provinces. Some really quality teams:

I feel like in Connacht & Munster's case that is a team that could actually take the field for them this season.

Showing the kind of arbitrariness of taking 25 as a cutoff, I also looked at the players aged 26 across the four teams, to see who just misses out:

It's predominantly Leinster, as the bulk of guys from that elite Academy intake in 2016/17 are just turned 26. That intake must go down as Leinster's best ever Academy class (James Ryan, Andrew Porter, Will Connors, Max Deegan, Hugo Keenan, Jimmy O'Brien, Jordan Larmour all in there, alongside the unfortunately retired Conor O'Brien and two elite 7s players in Terry Kennedy and Jack Kelly).

pickarooney

It seems weird that JOB is older than Larmour

Hey_Ho_Lets_Go_3

the idea that leinster don't have talented young players is gas.

connachta

Connacht fan, realistic though optmistic calls

Leinster : Doris (Connachtman and we desperately need a n°8)

Munster : Carbery, decent chance he'll be barred by Crowley/Healy, and we need a 10 for the next 5 years

Ulster : Addison, fell out of contention, may have 2 years in him to transition softly from Porch/TOH/Fitz to Mullins/O'Connor/Jennings

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119940517#Comment_119940517

I think those teams are a good indicator of what I’m seeing. Leinster have tons of young talent but not as good as previous crop and less obviously elite guys.

Those are way more equal teams than they would have been 3 years ago if you did the same exercise.

The thing that i noticed recently is that for the first time in a long time, if i was asked to take the top 5 under 23 from any province… I’d choose munster.

This might mean something or it might not. The next leinster intake could have 3 elite guys.

Hey_Ho_Lets_Go_3

Whose those 5 players?

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941487#Comment_119941487

From Munster?

Crowley, Casey, Ahern, Edogbo, Hodnett/Kendellan

I personally love hodnett but i realize that kendellan is more highly rated.

23 or under.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941487#Comment_119941487

23 and under, I’d go Casey, Crowley, Edogbo, Ahern and one of Hodnett or Kendellen.

That’d be a really strong core in some key positions.

EDIT: snap. Just saw I went for the exact same as ulsteru20s above, even to the extent of one from Hodnett/Kendellen.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941602#Comment_119941602

The only thing that id worry about munster is that they dont seem to have a ton of good props coming through like leinster. However, their senior props are generally quite young .

Clegg

Jamie Osborne is being slept on a bit here. In terms of young Irish backs I think he has the highest potential. He turned 21 just two weeks ago but already has 22 caps for Leinster.

Has an extremely well rounded skill set already and generally doesn't seem to get panicked into making poor decisions. Just needs to settle on a position, be it 13 or 15. He even played well on the occasions he was asked to step in as a wing.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941672#Comment_119941672

It’s definitely our weakest position and has been for awhile now.

Hooker is relatively promising with Barron and Buckley.

But I think the prop positions are prime candidates for an NIQ player post-RWC if the budget allows, while the likes of Knox, Salanoa and Josh Wycherley get more experience. They only have 27 starts between them.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941802#Comment_119941802

I dont know if he has it athletically at an elite level but i find that backs are the hardest to figure out.

TRC10

Leinster

Connacht: It's tricky. Aki is brilliant but we're stacked at 12 with Henshaw, Ngatai and Frawley. Hansen is good but we have Lowe. I'll go for Prendergast

Munster: I would have said Beirne to play 6. But I had to pick a Connacht player and Prendergast was the only one I'd consider taking. So I'll take Crowley

Ulster: Would have said Henderson but were fairly well sorted at lock with Jenkins and Ryan. I'll go for Baloucoune to give us the game breaker in the backs that we lack.

I'm going to pick an Irishman playing abroad as well. I'll go for James Cronin.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941448#Comment_119941448

Top 5 U23 at Leinster is pretty strong too - I'd probably go for Ryan Baird, Joe McCarthy, Scott Penny, Harry Byrne and Jamie Osborne.

Three guys in there who have already been capped internationally, plus two who were in the squad this November.

Hey_Ho_Lets_Go_3

Below that you have James Culhane, Jack Boyle, Alex Soroka, Sam Prendergast/Charlie Tector, Ben Brownlee.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943098#Comment_119943098

That is strong but i’m still taking the 5 from munster. Crowley and Casey alone at such important positions is massive.

However, the fact that it is even an argument is a different ball game from a few years ago. This would have been obviously leinster any time in the last ten years probably.

Of the 5 guys named there btw, i think i’m higher on baird and byrne (at this point ) than most people, but lower on penny and osborne.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119944911#Comment_119944911

It's subjective. I would argue Baird & McCarthy are ahead of Ahern and Edogbo obviously; both are full internationals at this point and Baird in particular has played a lot of European rugby and has racked up 8 Ireland caps.

Scott Penny is indisputably ahead of John Hodnett imo at this point in both of their careers, and I rate Hodnett very highly. But Penny has played more games (41 versus 27), scored an incredible amount of tries (23) and been called into the Ireland squad this November, alongside being the Pro14 Young Player of the Year in 2021 and being named in the Team of the Season.

Harry Byrne v Jack Crowley is an interesting debate. Byrne is a year older, but has played a lot more rugby (despite his well documented injury problems). It's not that long ago that he was the great white hope for the future at 10, and if he can remain healthy then by no means is it settled that he's out of the reckoning.

That leaves Craig Casey - indisputably the best established of all 10 players, who looks a bonafide star player and a guy who will pick up 50 caps+, and Jamie Osborne. I'm sky high on Osborne - think he has all the physical tools he'll need for a player so young, and will have a big couple of weeks coming up hopefully playing against Ulster this weekend and then European games after that.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119944955#Comment_119944955

Yea, i’m just plainly going by who i think has more upside. If we were ranking guys over 23 yea, but i dont think what they have done matters as much as what they will do… as well as the rarity of the skill set.

If i was ranking all those guys together, it would probably be…

1 Crowley

2 Casey

3 Ahern

4 McCarthy

gap

5 Edogbo

6 Baird (and i think of him as a 6)

7 Byrne

8 Osborne

gap

9 Hodnett

10 Penny

Edogbo is closer to the top group than bottom, and hodnett closer to middle.

i really dont rate penny that much. I’d put Boyle in that 5 over him and he’d be higher on the list. I think hodnett clearly has more upside.

edit: actually i might make the top 6 one group all with elite potential.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119944955#Comment_119944955

Scott Penny is indisputably ahead of John Hodnett imo at this point in both of their careers, and I rate Hodnett very highly. But Penny has played more games (41 versus 27), scored an incredible amount of tries (23) and been called into the Ireland squad this November, alongside being the Pro14 Young Player of the Year in 2021 and being named in the Team of the Season.

I’d dispute that. ;)

It’s marginal, to my mind. Hodnett has had his injury troubles which accounts for the difference in games and I don’t really think the URC awards have told us much historically. For example, Billy Holland and Kevin O’Byrne were on the team of the season just 2 seasons ago, for example. Penny’s try-scoring record is impressive tho.

At the moment, I’d find it difficult to say who has the higher ceiling. And in the short to medium term, Hodnett has the advantage of not having to contend with VdF and the returning Connors for game time.

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119944911#Comment_119944911

I see what people mean about Osbourne. He is so young and has had so little gametime I understand anyone having doubts.

He only just turned 21 about 2 weeks ago.

He needs to perform at a high level in high level games to convince people.

I do wonder if he will get a run in a full strength leinster side (due to injuries in the centre). If so he could have a very good month. As D'Arcy put it on OTB start vs Ulster, keep his place vs Racing and Gloucester and with a few good performances suddenly he is up there for the six nations squad.

That said Nagati could be back from injury or Lowe and Larmor could come come back and push JOB to centre and Osbourne might not get any game time in the next month.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945112#Comment_119945112

My doubts are based on his size/athleticism. He doesnt seem that big or that fast.

Take that with a giant pinch of salt though. Young backs are hard to figure.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945056#Comment_119945056

Yeah, but the very fact that Penny competes for gametime and yet has racked up way more minutes for Leinster is a major plus for him, granted though Hodnett has missed time with injuries. Penny made his debut for Leinster well over a year before Hodnett (Nov '18 v Feb '20), despite being c. 8 months younger.

Penny significantly outplayed him when they were both opposite each other as recently as October in the Aviva, when Penny would have been my MotM on the day. I think Penny would start for Munster, ahead of Hodnett or Kendellen.

You can ignore the individual honours if you want, but he's also been closer to Irish recognition, being called into the full Ireland squad for the Fiji game this Autumn and making the A squad for the NZ A game.

As I said, it's subjective, and they're both excellent players in my view, but to me, I don't buy into the notion that that young Leinster group are inferior.

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945121#Comment_119945121

I'd agree that he isn't quiet fast enough to be a winger. That said he pretty fast and can read a game wonderfully which can mean that he just appears in the right spot.

In terms of size he is almost 6 foot 4 which is very tall for a back. He will probably bulk up a few more kilos over his career but he is 95kg already. That's a little light for his size.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945050#Comment_119945050

Yea, i’m just plainly going by who i think has more upside. If we were ranking guys over 23 yea, but i dont think what they have done matters as much as what they will do… as well as the rarity of the skill set.

Well unless you've got a crystal ball, I don't think we can rank them on what they will do.

There is a fair bit of recency bias in your analysis - I doubt if you were making the exact same evaluation at the start of September you'd have had Jack Crowley ranked as No 1. Similarly, you're probably a bit high on Edogbo for a guy who has played 6 games, starting 2 of them (7 & 3 including SA A).

You're free to form whatever view you like of the players, but there is no evidence based on their performances to date at this point in their careers that justifies the rankings you've given out.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945190#Comment_119945190

I’ve had Crowley number one for a while. I spent most of last year hoping Ulster could get him when JvG wouldn't play him. 10 is the most important position and in my opinion he has everything. I like Byrne as well but durability is a real concern with him.

Edogbo has an extremely rare skillset and Penny does not. That matters alot to me. More than caps pre 23.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945201#Comment_119945201

I’ve had Crowley number one for a while.

We'll just have to take your word for that.

I like Edogbo, but haven't seen enough of him yet to form a view. I'd be higher on Ahern than him. As powerful as he looks, I would have concerns that's he's possibly too heavy to be a lineout presence and possibly a little too short too at 6ft 5.

Penny has done pretty well to make his debut for the European Champions two months past his 19th birthday and amass in excess of 40 caps since then (scoring 23 tries) for a guy who doesn't have a rare skillset.

How lucky we are that players like him just grow on trees apparently.

sydthebeat

jaysus, id describe a back rower who has a try scoring rate of 1 in 2 as having an extremely rare and valuable skill set.

Edogbo has a rare physique and athleticism for a 19 year old, but i haven't seen anything yet in his skillset, in the 6 pro games hes played, that id describe as "rare"

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945246#Comment_119945246

You make a fair comment about Edogbo's size. I'll draw your attention to Brad Thorn and Will Skelton.

No one would deny that they are (or were) amazing locks. Neither routinely jumped at lineout time.

I'm not saying he can't jump (he can) but there will definitely be people who are ahead of him as a jumper and he may be limited as a threat on opposition ball.

I'll also say that one of the reasons Edogbo is getting so much hype is because we haven't produced a lock of his style before.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945272#Comment_119945272

I’d describe most of Penny’s tries as tries that were going to be scored anyway. Doris has an elite rare skillset.

Physique, size and athleticism are part of your skillset imo.

We have like two true tighthead lock prospects. That’s rare.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945289#Comment_119945289

I’d describe most of Penny’s tries as tries that were going to be scored anyway.

I'm sorry but this makes no sense. How come every openside doesn't average a try every other game in that case? Most wingers would dream of having his strike rate.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945246#Comment_119945246

We might just have to agree to disagree. I think you could RELATIVELY easily replace Penny’s game compared to Edogbo when he is fully developed.

Tighthead locks are rare, especially potentially elite ones, so I rate them higher. Scarcity affects how good a player you are relative to your peers.

To put this another way, Boyle in the leinster academy is not someone they’d give up for someone at another province with alot of production at a young age. Props with his ability at his age, and seemingly all the tools are rare. He isn’t a porter level prospect but its still rarer than most back rows.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945301#Comment_119945301

He is good at scoring tries from close in. However, tries from close in generally get scored anyway. I’d say the same for Coombes.

It’s an overrated skill. It’s a real skill, just overrated.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945288#Comment_119945288

Yeah, I agree with that. And I would be high on him as a player. He has a great doggedness about him that's needed in packs today, and seems to have good ability over the ball on the deck. He looks a powerful unit when scrummaging and especially on defensive mauls.

But we haven't seen much of him as a carrier yet, and he is not credited with a single line out win all season in his 6 appearances. So if you're carrying a non-jumping lock, they pretty much have to be a massively dominating Skelton-like presence because you're losing a jumper out of your pack.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945332#Comment_119945332

Are lineout wins only on opposition ball? I’m almost certain I’ve seen him catch multiple times in the lineout.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945289#Comment_119945289

This is nonsense, and is perfectly illustrative of the kind of hypocrisy of your analysis.

If the two groups of players we were comparing were at different points in their careers, like one set of 5 were well established internationals at the peak of their careers and the others were Academy players, it wouldn't be acceptable to compare their actual achievements.

But we're not.

We're comparing here two sets of players who are of the same vintage, 23 years old and under.

You're dismissing the facts around the actual achievements of the Leinster group because it doesn't suit your narrative, and basing it all on your beliefs / projections as to what kind of players they might become.

I'm saying, judge them on what they've done so far, first and foremost, because that's not speculative and is much more objective.

Larbre34

Leinster....

.....

.....

.....

Honestly, drawn a blank.

But seriously, I'd have Iain Henderson, Mack Hansen and I'd also take Joey Carbery back on condition that nobody speak of the last four years ever again.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945340#Comment_119945340

https://www.unitedrugby.com/clubs/munster/edwin-edogbo - I was basing it on this, but i think from comparing it, that it seems the line outs won stat is based on hooker's throwing in, so it would only indicate he hasn't stolen one.

I can't recall him winning many, but you could be right that he has won some.

It doesn't change the point that at 6ft 5 and 122kgs, he's not exactly ideal lineout jumping material.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945345#Comment_119945345

I’m dismissing Penny’s achievements because I don’t rate his skillset.

I’ve already explained that I rate skillset (and scarcity of that skillset) way over caps at under 23s and an ability to score close in tries.

Which part of that is hypocritical? I don’t care what these guys have done already except as a vehicle to see their potential. You disagree. That’s fine but don’t bs me about hypocrisy because you don’t like my POV.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945376#Comment_119945376

I'm saying, your belief is solely based on YOUR opinion. You're dismissing actual facts and achievements, and have just conjured up a narrative on your views about their "skillsets".

My views about why I rate the Leinster group just as highly, is based on the player's actual achievements at this point.

So I'm more dismissive of your view on this because it's just conjecture, and seems highly skewed by recency bias in the case of Crowley & Edogbo.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945411#Comment_119945411

Of course its entirely based on my opinion. How’s that hypocritical?

The concept of some skillsets being rarer and thus more important than others isn’t rare. Its been around in rugby and American football for a long time. It’s not something new that I’m innovating.

I’m allowed to have my opinion and that opinion isnt going to align with lists of guys with most caps.

I’d have a different leinster top 5 without Penny in it. If i was allowed to pick, I’d poach Boyle before Penny. And, I’m not super super high on Boyle but he has more upside clearly to me.

Clegg

Penny has a pretty well rounded skill set I think. Hard carrier, high workrate, involved in an awful lot of rucks. He's also a rather good footballer in general. Can act as a passing option to link the play.

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945318#Comment_119945318

So in your determination to dismiss Scott Penny you are now arguing that an ability to score tries from close in is an overrated skillset?

What's the point in playing the game so?

While this is overall a reasonable discussion of people with differing viewpoints this cannot be a reasonable take and kind of outed yourself as no longer objective

Coombes has been the sole difference in many games for his penchant and strength from getting over the line where others wont. Same with Penny.

Scoring tries in any shape or form is not and never will be "an overrated skill"

It's literally the point of playing

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945121#Comment_119945121

He’s 6”3 and 95kg’s how big does he need to be? That’s at 21 so he can probably comfortably make 100kg’s in the next few years.

He doesn’t have the top end pace of a winger. Though as a 12 or maybe 13 does he need to?

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945504#Comment_119945504

The most important thing in scoring a try isnt always the person who scores it. Agree or disagree?

I feel like if that particular skill set was as highly rated as you think it is, coombes would have way more international caps, and Penny would start in Leinster’s strongest teams.

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945509#Comment_119945509

Again there is just a determination from certain posters to dismiss ability ostensibly with "genuine gripes" but when scratching the surface turn into provincial biases.

Nitpicking Osborne on his pace and size is a thin one given he's on par with other peers of his such as Hume, Moore, JOB, Frawley, Frisch and probably even Ringrose, all of whom are capable of multiple positions in the outside backs and all of whom are in the mid 90kgs (some generously)

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945539#Comment_119945539

Well in fairness to the poster he’s an ulster supporter promoting Munster players. So I’m not sure it’s provincial.

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945530#Comment_119945530

You can try wiggle out of this hole if you want but moving the goalposts here wont help you.

Obviously it doesn't matter who scores the tries.

But the undeniable fact is Penny and Coombes score more than most of their peers. Many from close range. But they're still getting scored. By them.

Not only that. The frequency of their strike rate points to game plan also. Get in positions to let them do what they do best.

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945545#Comment_119945545

Possibly not