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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2022/2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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30-11-2022 6:43pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours for Winter 2022/2023.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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After a very mild and wet Autumn Winter is now upon us and for once we are not starting off winter with an unending conveyer belt of Atlantic driven muck. We are entering a colder than average spell as we begin the 1st day of winter and temperatures will slowly slide away over the coming week. Temperatures will generally stay above freezing both by day and night over the coming week with winds in from the east, but not a cold easterly for week 1 of December.
Thankfully we are now also entering a much dryer spell of weather, a welcome relief after 3 months of deluges. It should be mostly dry until Sunday when showers may begin to move in from the Irish sea and cross the country. These showers are likely to be of rain for the most part as temperatures by Sunday still won't be cold enough for wintry precipitation away from high ground.
Precipitation amounts of the next week look fairly low especially in western and northern areas with Leinster and coastal parts of the south experiencing more in the way of rainfall from showers particularly on Sunday.
Winds over the coming week will primarily be from an easterly direction but not dragging in properly cold air as of yet but it will feel cooler than what we've been used to.
Post edited by Gonzo on19
Comments
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One could not wish for a much better +96 hr chart in the first week of December. At DAY 4 we have a highly amplified pattern. We have a Polar vortex in tatters, a very blocked Atlantic, a Greenland high, and a trough dropping down through Scandinavia.
GFS
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The Fax showing a weak front later Tues or into Weds but behind it will be watching for troughs moving down in the colder Northerly airflow. Preliminary projection from the ECM showing mixed wintry precipitation later Weds through the early hours of Thursday with a possible light dusting of lying snow Thurs morning in places, more so the Northern half of the country, could be the first real icy morning in places, struggling to get up over 0C in places by midday from tonights charts.
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Arpege showing that too it seems. All models though showing that sliver of cork city coast again being white, is this a model thing or just a warm sector because every time snow shows up on charts this happens haha. Coastal winds(going all the way to the city it seems)
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Re: next weekend and into the following week.
Without the benefit of seeing the ensembles yet, there is another shift in the ECM op run to heights extending from between Iceland and Greenland southeast towards Ireland. The result is that the Atlantic doesn't break through as quickly as it was showing on the ECM up to yesterday morning and continues to show on the GFS. In this ECM run, the northeast of Ulster manages to hold on to the cold uppers
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The cold spell is coming to an end now and temperatures will lift up alot over the next few days. On Tuesday it looks as if we could have some fairly stormy conditions as a deep area of low pressure tracks very close to Ireland with the Atlantic back in charge.
Gusts up to 90km/h possible in places especially across western and north-western counties.
Tuesday looks to be fairly windy with bands of rain pushing across the country and temperatures around 5 or 6C, so much cooler than Sunday and Monday. These strong winds could have a fairly biting wind chill factor to them combined with cold rain.
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Just keeping an eye on that deep area of LP skirting by us later Fri into Saturday. Breezy and quite wet frontal passage on Fri , timing not certain yet followed by windy conditions along W, SW, S and SE coastal counties and blustery inland with showers or a few longer spells of rain later Fri into Saturday.
Currently not looking too strong but could have blustery showers on Saturday adding to the woes of last minute shopping!
Looks a bit milder Fri ,up around 10C apart from N counties that bit cooler and Sat highs of 8 to 10C , mildest further South , cooler further N.
Initially mild enough and then drawing down colder airs later Christmas eve into Christmas day, a few places could have a frosty start Christmas morning. .
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Models have eased off the winds considerably for Saturday, breezy to blustery. Wet day on Fri mainly from the frontal passage which should be gone through early in the day for most of the country, clearing Northern counties early evening. , not too bad away from coastal areas on Saturday but still will have showers moving inland in places, might be a few thunderstorms around the coasts Fri and Sat, more so Sat but might be mainly over the sea. Fairly high rainfall accumulations around coastal fringes especially over high terrain.
Relatively mild getting up to highs of around 11C on Fri and Sat.
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Much colder air from early Sunday for a day or so perhaps, models showing a frontal passage from early morning passing down the country from a NW'ly direction on Christmas day with following cold airmass behind it which should produce some wintry precipitation, more so in the NW, N, might not have much if any sticking on lower elevations for long but could have some white mountain tops and a bit on hills .
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ECM / ICON/ UKMO has upped the ante on the latest runs with a very disturbed weather pattern around midweek, models are different on track and intensity atm but all showing deep LP's near us. ECM currently looks very windy or stormy around next Weds and I left it run into Thurs as it is from the same parent system. Charts below will undoubtedly change track and strength a bit but good to note and see how the models develop this.
Tues from early morning looking windy on the coasts and blustery blustery overland some heavy rain also.
Just to note could see another deep system around Fri.
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European models looking quite similar atm for next Weds but that's not to say that this might take a different track and intensity but for now showing potential for stormy weather next Weds and possibly into Thurs. GFS not showing it as strong at this stage, GEM showing something strong too.
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It certainly does 17-pdr, tighter more organized depression, models went to disarray for the last few runs but bunching up again, could see rather unsettled weather continue into Thurs and possibly on Fri also but forecasts far from resolved yet. Will be interesting to se the ECM 12C later. ICON a bit more S with the stronger winds, ARPEGEE has a different structure and depth to the system but strong winds nonetheless with different timings, think this model has a bit of catching up to do yet.
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