€1,350/cow payment to cut suckler numbers

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973274#Comment_119973274

The next CAP has a subsidy support scheme for suckler cows that is supposed to lay about 250/ cow.

The proposed payment is 1150 for total destocking and 1350 for partial to 50%. Giving that you will have a mix the scheme for 200k cows will cost about 250 million.

Guess what 200k suckler cows go e out of the system over 5years will save the government 250 million in suckler payments.

Even if we assume that 20% are cows not drawing payments the net cost to the government 50 million.

The scheme is virtually self financing over five years.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973350#Comment_119973350

There is going to be a dairy exit scheme but it will be another 1-2 years before it is put in place but the payment will dwarf the suckler payments.

The NZ plan may work but the government has EU targets to hit. As well a dairy cow producing 5.5k litres @50c/L has a gross return of 2.75k/ year add a beef component made up of cull cow, steer/ heifer or exported calf adds another minimum average gross value of 1k to that. You are hitting 4k in output.

Average suckler cow weans 0.8 calves. Value of cull cow varies from 1100-2k probably averaging 14-1500 euro. Average steer/ heifer from suckler is probably averaging 13-1400 allowing for weanling export. And average across all animals

Allowing for 80% weaning and 18% culls, allow for losses average output is probably less than 1.5k/ cow with an average subsidiary of 130/head

The maths speak for themselves. Stop deluding yourself.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973427#Comment_119973427

If the goal is to get the below average lads out of sucklers then we’ll and good. But what is their alternative? Like if it pushes up the price of yearlings etc then the finishers are going to be hit. Maybe agroforestry could be a runner.

A 250 / cow subsidy is daft in my opinion.

You have to wonder how lads are managing to only wean .8 calves per cow. Maybe lads should be encouraged to scan cows and hang up empties, which they should already be doing.

The averages you quote there are poor for suckler bullocks and heifers.

There is money to be made in finishing dairy male and non replacement heifers but at 30 months you’d wonder

alps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973350#Comment_119973350

You really need to get out more. There is a corresponding dairy reduction proposal

A department report to itself.

No money.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973485#Comment_119973485

Well it’s a daft idea in my opinion to pay people to cull cows.

Good article here https://www.agridirect.ie/article/beef-fund-who-are-we-farming-for

In the medium to long term small landholders will become a thing of the past. Small holdings will be bought out by pension funds etc for the guaranteed income from forestry and as we know large funds don’t do tax.

The days of lads milking sub 100 cows are numbered. Take a drive around the country to see all the new sheds going up.

Lads milking 200 are trying to get to 300 etc. and they are right to expand in the good times but it will ultimately lead to oversupply wiping out vulnerable or inefficient producers or those that are heavily leveraged.

The farming lobby will decline in importance as small farmers pack it in.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973492#Comment_119973492

Again it shows your total missunderstanding of economic realities. The lad from 70-120 cows is in no danger. Ask @Grueller and @davidk@davidk@davidk1394 both are probably going to be in the numbers above. There is a number of other on here as well. Both above are setting up new enterprises

Below 120 cows you have no labour cost. A I've it you get into labour a labour until costs at present the margin on about 40-50 cows. A bit like dairy calves Teagasc and the FJ forgot about that as well. They proposal for larger standalone second units was the mythical couple

By 2025 with the newly proposed living wage with employer prsi, holiday pay etc a farm labourer will be costing 20+/ hour.

Lads with 120-200 cows would be better off with a beef enterprise alongside the cows. However the larger lads are in the debt circle so they will have to stick at it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973913#Comment_119973913

What happens when the inputs continue to rise and milk price falls? What happens when the price of rented land goes to 8 or 900 an acre due to big money getting involved.

The lads you referenced there are good operators and are not heavily leveraged.

There are dairy lads finishing their own stock and doing a good job at it.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973933#Comment_119973933

The sky will fall in next week. We can all go around in circles with Chicken Licken thinking.

Lads on the 80-120 cows generally do not have a lot of land rented or are not leveraged. Its the larger operations that is generally more leveraged as many expanded using pads, outside cubicles and lined earthen bank tanks. Some of them even had virtually uncovered milking units

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119974060#Comment_119974060

The margins were tight on milk up till recently. If you watch any of those George goes milking videos or whatever they scoff at the idea of milking less than a hundred cows with the goal of getting to 150 cows.

The cow reduction scheme is an idea that is being floated. You think it’s a good idea but I think it’s a bad idea, the the summary of it. Maybe it’s in the early stages of development etc but a bit more thinking is needed.

Packrat

There's a lesson here in the last 10 posts or so.

jenalone

so how does one get this then, can you buy in cows now and get payment later

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119984889#Comment_119984889

No it's for existing suckler farmers only I would imagine. Usually they use an average of the last three year or something similar. As Well I imagine it will only be on cows calved down.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119979731#Comment_119979731

What is the leason

The proposed scheme is a stupid idea. The uptake of schemes is poor as it.

The lads calving cows in the spring would be culling their cows at the end of the year when it’s most expensive to finish cattle.

It would make way more sense to base a scheme around:

1) Scanning of suckler cows to reduce empty cows in the system

2) Improvements in finishing of stock to get away from bullocks over 30 months etc

3) A silage quality improvement scheme which would probably assist in pulling in timelines for finishing cattle

Paying lads 1350 to cull cows is nuts. There are lot of fellows finishing beef cattle off grass.

The goal of the scheme is to reduce methane emissions. Every lad in dairy cows I know is expanding planning on milking more cows etc.

Even if the scheme achieved a reduction of say 200 k suckler cows then an additional 100k dairy cows would wipe that out.

Numbers are continuing to grow in dairy https://www.statista.com/statistics/1192315/dairy-cow-numbers-ireland/

There is already a natural decline in suckler cows. https://thatsfarming.com/beef/cow-numbers-in-ireland/

The money should be used to reduce emissions from cows in active herds in both beef and dairy.

Grueller

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119985680#Comment_119985680

Why do you assume a dairy cow is twice the emissions of a suckler out of interest?

The nitrates has a suckler plus a calf up to 1 Yr old at 85 + 24=109. Highest band of dairy cow at 106.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119985711#Comment_119985711

That’s what’s reported in the media.

If you look at the figures there we can see the decline in suckler cows is pretty much being off set in numbers by the increase in dairy cows.

Its taking lads over 30 months to finish freisian bullocks at a lousy kill out.

What are the emissions for the dairy cow and her calf?

Grueller

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119985736#Comment_119985736

Last question is fair enough. My cows are middle band so 92 kg/N. Add calf to yearling at 24 more so 116kg/N in total. That's 7 kg/N more than a suckler and calf. I don't see where the doubling is coming from.

That friesian bullock is still no less efficient given that Mammy has to be carried around for a year to facilitate the suckler progeny. 24kg+57kg+42kg for the 30 months for friesian. That's 123kg/N. Mammy has paddled her own canoe and has sold €4000 of milk in the calfs 1st year of life. Two industries are supported, both a huge beef and a huge dairy processing industry, that's why I am not adding in the 92 for the cow.

The suckler progeny figures are 85 + 24 + 57= 176kg/N. That's at 24 month slaughter. They are N figures I know and it's all I really have as a barometer as the methane figures vary wildly.

I am not saying get rid of sucklers, they have their place. I don't think that place is up at numbers of 900,000 of them.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119986020#Comment_119986020

The suckler cow numbers are falling naturally anyway. They are being more than replaced by increasing cow numbers in dairy.

The government encouraged and incentivised the dairy expansion. The best solution is one that includes an approach like New Zealand that also focuses on methane reducing supplements and improving genetics etc.

The export market for calves will shrink over time as we can see the best farmers in Europe in the Netherlands are being made cut numbers etc. The Netherlands is a big market for Irish calves.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119986020#Comment_119986020

You forgot to factor that 0.8 calves weaned per suckler cow carried. So multiply the 116 by 1.25 and tou get 144kgs/unit for 12 months.

As well factor in the tendancy now for some in the suckler game to have heifers nearly 36 months at calving much less prevalent in Dairy. Suckler farmers are more inclined to give a cow a second chance. Even if this happens in dairy the cow can be milked through to the following summer. Finally the myth of U24 months, There is a tendancy by some suckler farmers to register calves a few day late after finding them in the rushes. This is not a factor in dairy where if anything some lads are registering a few days early to get them off the farm sooner

Calving beef heifers for the first time at 36 months is nuts. It’s 24 months here.

The 20% empty rate just shows the importance of scanning.

The emissions reduction will need to focus more on the active herd than culling

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119986278#Comment_119986278

Its immaterial where these practices are nuts or not, the simple fact is there prevalence in the suckler herd. Its virtually impossible to wipe out trends like these. Especially as the specialist breeders who sell heifers for substantial sums seem to carry on this practice

Scanning has its place and from what I can see most suckler farmers carry it on. However if the give a cow that lost a calf a second chance they are as likely to give an empty cow a second chance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119986461#Comment_119986461

If a cow loses a calf and you don’t have a foster calf then it doesn’t make sense to keep her. If she gives trouble one year then it’s more likely a pattern so she should be marked for the road even if you can get her to rear a foster calf.

Emissions reduction within the active herd is the answer. Suckler cow numbers are reducing as it is without this daft proposed measure.

Base price

Suckler bred calving down by 24,000 ytd, dairy calving up by almost 27,000.

"While the number of suckler calves born this year has fallen and the number of dairy-bred calves born this year is growing, the overall number of calves born to date has remained relatively steady; the fall in suckler calvings is offsetting the rise in dairy calvings."

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/suckler-calvings-down-by-over-24000-head-to-date-this-year/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0DMmxrrhPZY6t4yJGcmwlbzbMnfMB8y0WWvKd9ymJd_ygQSbY4YYfp4QI#Echobox=1670765101

Hard Knocks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119986528#Comment_119986528

The problem with fostering calves on suckler cows is you cannot record it. If a farmer of 10 cows loses a calf at calving and fosters a replacement even though ICBF can see said farmer reared 10 calves they have a wean ratio of 0.9

Also I think given the price of cull/dry cows the giving another chance has gone in majority of suckler farms.

This should not be a suckler v dairy argument, each has it’s own place and merit

JohnChadwick

Seems like this suckler reduction scheme (cull) is off the cards anyway, from listening to the radio.

And they'll get the reduction required through encouraging other activities i.e. diversification.

Anto_Meath

@JohnChadwick, I could never see it running anyway, as the lad with a few suckler cows who like to bred top quality weanlings would carry on at that for as long as he is able physically. The lad that is farming 50 plus suckler cows would most like take the payment but only if he could diversify into something more else, so he could end up rearing 100 dairy cross calves. In either of these options there would be no reduction in emissions.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017743#Comment_120017743

I don't know if individual farmers were getting worried, but factories were shouting a lot and the farmer representatives were singing off the exact same hymn sheet as them.

It's as likely that this kite-flying exercise from the Dept will probably increase suckler numbers. Now that a reduction scheme has been mentioned and possibly remains on the table, then you'd be better off to hold what numbers you have, or maybe even increase numbers a small bit, in anticipation of cashing out in 2023 or 2024.

The processors will be delighted with the extra supply coming dow the line and they might get their glory days again! Meanwhile, GHGs increase and the Dept wonder why???

JohnChadwick

Any Reduction scheme before 2030 looks off the table to me.

Sounds like they're confident they'll meet the required reduction figures just through the natural economic ebb and flow, so no scheme will be needed.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017743#Comment_120017743

There must be massive money in freisian bullocks at 30 months based on your input. Probably costs 6 or 700 to buy a freisian yearling throw 400 euro worth of silage, half a ton of meal and the costs of keeping him till 30 months on grass and you will do well to break even

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017958#Comment_120017958

I think they believe it will be a problem for the next government or else they realised that suckler cow numbers are already decreasing year on year and/or that private money in pension funds etc will buy land for afforestation for the guaranteed income